The document discusses the future of health and medicine. It begins by providing an overview of the history of medicine from ancient river valleys to modern times. It then examines concepts like the definition of health, current issues in global health including access to care, and challenges like rising rates of non-communicable diseases. The document suggests the future may involve continued growth, collapse, or a transformation towards more equitable, sustainable systems. Overall, it considers how studying history can inform the future of health and importance of envisioning multiple possible futures.

1. The Future
of Health
Ramon Lorenzo Luis Rosa Guinto
President, Asian Medical Students’ Association-Philippines
Doctor of Medicine Class of 2012
University of the Philippines Manila

2. IDC History of Medicine
• Lectures, lectures, lectures!
• Papers, papers, papers!
• Visit at Co Tec Tai Museum
• Show and Tell!
• Motherly care from Doc Nina

3. History
• History – “Histoire” – Inquiry
• Kasaysayan – “Saysay” – Meaning
• Elements of History – 5W’s and 1H
• Methods of Studying History
• Perspectives in Looking at History

4. Saysay
ng Paggaling
Kasaysayan
ng Magagaling
A Brief History
of World Medicine

5. History of World Medicine
PRE-HIPPOCRATIC
(River-Valleys to Greece)

6. History of World Medicine
POST-HIPPOCRATIC
(Romans to
Middle Ages)

7. History of World Medicine
MODERN MEDICINE
(Renaissance to 21st Century)

8. Saysay ng Paggaling
CONCEPT OF DISEASE
AND ILLNESS
SYSTEMS OF DIAGNOSIS

9. Kasaysayan
ng Magagaling
TREATMENT METHODS
AND DRUGS
INNOVATORS
AND PRACTITIONERS

10. A Briefer
History
of World
Medicine

11. 2000 B.C.
“Here, take this root.”

12. 1,000 B.C.
“The root is heathen.
Take this prayer.”

13. 1850 A.D.
“That prayer is superstition.
Take this potion.”

14. 1940 A.D.
“That potion is snake
oil. Take this pill.”

15. 1985 A.D.
“That pill is ineffective.
Take this antibiotic.”

16. 2000 A.D.
“That antibiotic
is artificial.
Here,
take this root.”
Dr. Den Bovy, Immortality, 1999

17. Why Study History of Medicine?

18. Why Study History of Medicine?
• Understand the present
• Learn from past mistakes
• Gain inspiration
•See the future!

19. I Ka Wa Ma Mua, Ka Wa Ma Hope
The Future is in the Past!

20. Can you see the future?
• Are you ready/trained?
• Is your society ready?
• How does it look to you?

21. How can you see the future?

22. How can you see the future?
CREATE IT!

23. Predict the future?
• Futurists cannot predict the future
• They invent preferred futures!
• Opening minds to possible futures

24. Seeing Futures – 3 Scales
• Future as it emerges
– The moment, present
– Tactics, flow
• Medium Range
– Strategy, planning
• Longer, imaginable, preferred vision
– What Could Be (Novelties)
– 50 years? 100 years?

25. Four Generic Alternative Futures
• Continued Growth
• Collapse
• Disciplined Society
• Transformational Society

26. WHAT’S NEXT?
CONTINUED GROWTH?

27. WHAT’S NEXT?
COLLAPSE?

28. WHAT’S NEXT?
A DISCIPLINED SOCIETY?

29. WHAT’S NEXT?
A TRANSFORMATIONAL SOCIETY?

30. The Joy of Stats
Hans Rosling
Karolinska Institutet

31. WHAT’S NEXT?
CONTINUED GROWTH?

32. What is
HEALTH?

34. The Constitution of WHO, 1948
“a state of complete physical, mental,
and social well-being and not merely
the absence of disease or infirmity
a fundamental human right”

35. Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion, 1986
“a resource for everyday life, not the
objective of living a positive concept
emphasizing social and personal
resources, as well as physical
capacities”

36. Alma Ata Declaration, 1978
“The Conference strongly reaffirms that
health is a fundamental human right”
“The existing gross inequality in the health
status of the people particularly between
developed and developing countries as
well as within countries is politically,
socially and economically unacceptable”

37. Rudolf Virchow
remedy for
epidemics was:
“prosperity, education
& liberty”
Doctor, Pathologist, Biologist, Politician: first to recognize
Leukemia, elucidated embolism, founded “Social Medicine”
founded discipline of Anthropology,

38. What is the state of
GLOBAL
HEALTH
today?

39. 70
Average Life
Expectancy of
Filipinos (in
years)
80,000
Filipino Babies dying
of PREVENTABLE
causes ANNUALLY

40. MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE
Per 100,000 Livebirths; 2002 UNDP Revision
Country 1985-2002
Philippines 170
Thailand 36
Malaysia 30
South Korea 20
Japan 8
Italy 7
Spain 0
More than 3,000 Filipina mothers die
UNNECESSARILY annually

41. LEB under 60 years
IMR over 90
MM over 150
LEB over 80 years
IMR less than 10
MM less than 15

42. Safe Water and Sanitation
“Sanitation generally refers to
the provision of facilities and
services for the safe disposal
of human urine and feces.”
(WHO)

43. Access to Health Care
23%
government
59%
out of
pocket
18% Shared-
Risk Schemes
Including
National Health
Insurance
(PhilHealth)

44. Estrad
Aquino Ramos a Arroyo
Education 12.3 15.5 18.7 15.1
Health 3.1 2.6 2.4 1.8
Housing 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.4
Defense 6.1 6.7 5.6 5.0
Debt service
(interest only) 40.0 25.3 19.2 25.2

45. Provision of Essential Drugs
There are more
than 16,000
registered
medicine in the
country…
…but 70% of Filipinos have no access to
essential drugs.
WHO World Medicines Situation, 2004

50. TRIPLE BURDEN OF DISEASE

51. Let’s play a game!
INTERPRET THE
DRAWINGS!

52. Source: Ravi Narayan, SOCHARA, India

53. Source: Ravi Narayan, SOCHARA, India

54. Source: Ravi Narayan, SOCHARA, India

55. Source: Ravi Narayan, SOCHARA, India

56. Source: Ravi Narayan, SOCHARA, India

57. The Future Walks
Among Us!
“Any useful idea about the future
must appear to be ridiculous!”

58. “The doctor of the future will
give no medicine, but will
interest his patients in the care
of the human frame, ind diet,
and in the cause and
prevention of disease.”
Thomas Alva Edison

59. Create one ‘ridiculous’ idea about
the future of health in 2040.

60. Young People:
Partners for Health
Young People’s Recommendations for PHC

70. Young People: Partners for Health
• We strongly reaffirm the definition of health as a
“complete state of physical, mental, and social
wellbeing and not merely the absence of disease
and infirmity.”
• For us, health equates to a complete state of
wellbeing through the achievement of human
rights.
• Young people need to be at the forefront of
primary health care efforts Young people [need
to] get involved as PARTNERS in primary health
care NOW and in the future.

71. The Power of Young People
“The youth are
the hope of the
Fatherland.”
Dr. Jose Rizal
National Hero of the Philippines

72. Fathers of Social Medicine

73. What is your

74. Take Home Lessons:
LU 3 and beyond
• Remember your history!
• Continue being aware of the present –
which is history a second later!
• Aim to be part of history!

75. “Vision without action is merely a dream.
Action without vision just passes time.
Vision WITH action
can change the world.”
Joel Barker

76. Yesterday is history.
Tomorrow is mystery.
Today is a gift
That is why it is called
PRESENT!

77. Thank
You
Very
Much!