This document provides an overview of economic impact analysis. It defines economic impact analysis as estimating how spending associated with an event, project, or industry flows through a regional economy. It discusses the basic structure of input-output models, including direct, indirect and induced effects. It also covers assumptions of economic impact analysis and considerations like defining the direct effect, gross versus net impacts, and timing. The document provides examples of economic impact analyses of sporting events, ports, and biofuel plants to illustrate key concepts.
Economic impact analysis looks at the effect of a project or event on the economy of a specified geography. We measure this effect in jobs, sales, and earnings created or lost. What we are really measuring is “change in final demand,” which is essentially money coming in from somewhere outside of your community.
Some may debate over which economic impact model is the best, but I’ll let you in on a little secret: the most important component of any good economic impact analysis has nothing to do with which model you use. The single biggest pitfall of many impact studies is failing to correctly calculate “net new” when thinking about change in final demand. Net new is the change in final demand once you have eliminated and accounted for all other changes. In other words, you have estimated which jobs would occur in your community regardless of the project.
Last week, Tom Dworetsky and I had a blast chatting about this topic with a group of Siena College students taking part in an Economics of Travel and Tourism Course. Check out our presentation slides for a step-by-step guide to economic impact analysis.
Economic impact analysis looks at the effect of a project or event on the economy of a specified geography. We measure this effect in jobs, sales, and earnings created or lost. What we are really measuring is “change in final demand,” which is essentially money coming in from somewhere outside of your community.
Some may debate over which economic impact model is the best, but I’ll let you in on a little secret: the most important component of any good economic impact analysis has nothing to do with which model you use. The single biggest pitfall of many impact studies is failing to correctly calculate “net new” when thinking about change in final demand. Net new is the change in final demand once you have eliminated and accounted for all other changes. In other words, you have estimated which jobs would occur in your community regardless of the project.
Last week, Tom Dworetsky and I had a blast chatting about this topic with a group of Siena College students taking part in an Economics of Travel and Tourism Course. Check out our presentation slides for a step-by-step guide to economic impact analysis.
The economic literature ever since the dawn of modern economics has been much preoccupied with the issue of economic growth Economic growth has also been understood to establish the conditions for economic development The better-known models of economic growth such as the Lewis, Rostow Harrod Domar Solow, and Romer growth models are discussed
Since pollution is an externality firms will not undertake to control their pollution. The answer is in government regulations. Coase argues that in perfect competition with laissez faire, govt regulation is not needed. Instead bargaining between the polluters and their victims can lead to an optimal situation. But this pre supposes equality in bargaining, and does not take note of ecological consequences of pollution.
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In economics, the theory of the second best concerns the situation when one or more optimality conditions cannot be satisfied.
The economists Richard Lipsey and Kelvin Lancaster showed in 1956, that if one optimality condition in an economic model cannot be satisfied, it is possible that the next-best solution involves changing other variables away from the values that would otherwise be optimal.
Politically, the theory implies that if it is infeasible to remove a particular market distortion, introducing a second (or more) market distortion may partially counteract the first, and lead to a more efficient outcome.
Externalities are spill-over effects from production and consumption for which no appropriate compensation is paid
Externalities lie outside the initial market transaction / price
Externalities cause market failure if the price mechanism does not take account of the social costs and benefits of production and consumption
Presentation by Michael N'dolo to the University of New Hampshire Economic Development Academy. Covers difference between direct, indirect, and induced effects
Economic Consequence Analysis, Prof. Adam Rose, USCOECD Governance
Presentation made at the expert meeting organised jointly by the European Commission, the OECD and the project PLACARD, in Paris 26th -28th October 2016. For more information see www.oecd.org/gov/risk/joint-expert-meeting-on-disaster-loss-data.htm
The economic literature ever since the dawn of modern economics has been much preoccupied with the issue of economic growth Economic growth has also been understood to establish the conditions for economic development The better-known models of economic growth such as the Lewis, Rostow Harrod Domar Solow, and Romer growth models are discussed
Since pollution is an externality firms will not undertake to control their pollution. The answer is in government regulations. Coase argues that in perfect competition with laissez faire, govt regulation is not needed. Instead bargaining between the polluters and their victims can lead to an optimal situation. But this pre supposes equality in bargaining, and does not take note of ecological consequences of pollution.
ReSAKSS-AfricaLead Workshop on Strengthening Capacity for Strategic Agricultural Policy and Investment Planning and Implementation in Africa Safari Park Hotel, Nairobi, June 25th‐ 26th 2012
Specification Error is defined as a situation where one or more key feature, variable or assumption of a statistical model is not correct. Specification is the process of developing the statistical model in a regression analysis. Copy the link given below and paste it in new browser window to get more information on Specification Error:- http://www.transtutors.com/homework-help/economics/specification-errors.aspx
Which goods and services are best left to the market? And which are more efficiently and fairly provided as collective consumption goods by the state? This is at the heart of your revision of public goods. Central to your revision will be to understand why public goods may not be provided by the market. You can work this out by distinguishing between public and private goods and focusing on the ideas of rivalry and excludability in consumption. Students should understand the free rider and valuation problems – there are big debates in economics about the optimum size of the state. Rapid changes in technology are also changing the nature of what is and what is not a public good.
In economics, the theory of the second best concerns the situation when one or more optimality conditions cannot be satisfied.
The economists Richard Lipsey and Kelvin Lancaster showed in 1956, that if one optimality condition in an economic model cannot be satisfied, it is possible that the next-best solution involves changing other variables away from the values that would otherwise be optimal.
Politically, the theory implies that if it is infeasible to remove a particular market distortion, introducing a second (or more) market distortion may partially counteract the first, and lead to a more efficient outcome.
Externalities are spill-over effects from production and consumption for which no appropriate compensation is paid
Externalities lie outside the initial market transaction / price
Externalities cause market failure if the price mechanism does not take account of the social costs and benefits of production and consumption
Presentation by Michael N'dolo to the University of New Hampshire Economic Development Academy. Covers difference between direct, indirect, and induced effects
Economic Consequence Analysis, Prof. Adam Rose, USCOECD Governance
Presentation made at the expert meeting organised jointly by the European Commission, the OECD and the project PLACARD, in Paris 26th -28th October 2016. For more information see www.oecd.org/gov/risk/joint-expert-meeting-on-disaster-loss-data.htm
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5. Overview of
Economic Impact Analysis
Presented By:
Terry Clower, Ph.D.
University of North Texas
October 27, 2011
Based on materials prepared by: H. Campbell, T. Clower, G. Hewings, K. Poole, M. White
6. Topics for Today
• Define Economic Impact Analysis
• Terminology
• Basic Structure of Input-Output Models
• Assumptions and Key Considerations
Economic Impact Analysis 2
7. What is Economic Impact Analysis?
• Estimating how spending associated with a
particular event, project, or industry flows
through a regional economy.
Economic Impact Analysis 3
8. What Economic Impact Analysis
IS NOT
• It is not the same as fiscal impact analysis.
• It is not usually a risk-adjusted analysis.
• It is not cost-benefit analysis.
Economic Impact Analysis 4
9. Why do we need impact analyses?
• Allocate resources among competing projects
• Assess the potential for an investment policy
– Retaining or expanding an existing business
– Attracting new business & economic activity
• Putting “hard numbers” on political strategies
to test their veracity
• Planning for change
Economic Impact Analysis 5
10. Steps in Performing Any
Research Project
• Identifying stakeholders
• Understanding the project & its details
• Deciding on scope of the analysis
– Geographic
– Type of analysis
– Timing
• Understanding costs and identifying resources
Economic Impact Analysis 6
12. Input-Output Models
Input-Output Models add Households
• both suppliers of labor inputs to regional industries
and purchasers of regional outputs
• earnings include:
– wages & salaries
– proprietors’ income
– directors’ fees
– employer contributions for healthcare insurance less
– personal contributions for social insurance
• household column based on PCE
Economic Impact Analysis 8
13. Input-Output Models
• Direct effects:
– The direct activity(s) of the project in question
– Usually defined the direct effects in terms of output or
employment.
– Most important step in conducting the analysis!!
• Indirect effects:
– Capture the impacts on firms that (directly and indirectly)
supply the activity defined in the direct effect(s). (Type I
multiplier)
• Induced effects:
– Captures impacts of spending by households receiving income
based on direct and indirect effects (Type II multiplier)
9
14. Input-Output Models
Multipliers are expressed in terms of output, employment and
income.
• Type I
• (direct & indirect effects) measures the economic impact of business
interactions - excludes the impact of household expenditures. (“Open”
model)
• Type II
• (direct, indirect, induced) captures the economic impact of business
and household expenditures in a linear procedure, which tends to
overstate household impacts. (“Closed with respect to households”)
• Type III
• (Social Accounting Matrix SAM multipliers) A hybrid of Type II
multiplier with no set methodology designed to compensate for
overestimations of Type II
Note: Each industry sector has its own multipliers
Economic Impact Analysis 10
15. Input-Output Models
Input-Output Assumptions:
• Constant returns to scale
• Linear and homogenous production functions
• Perfectly elastic factor supplies
• Constant technology
• Note: Some commercial models adjust for these.
Economic Impact Analysis
16. Input-Output Models
Other Considerations
• Study area definition
• Gross vs. Net Impacts
– Accounting for leakages/spending realignment
• Timing
• Adjusting for prices
• Defining the direct effect
• Margins
Economic Impact Analysis
17. The Functional Economic Area
Residential
Travel Location of
Corridors Labor Force
Impact
Site Consumer
Location of
Support Locations
Services
Location of
Supporting
Industries
Economic Impact Analysis
18. Input-Output Models
Gross vs. Net Impacts:
It’s all about the spending and who is doing/receiving
the spending.
Economic Leakages
– When spending leaves the region
– Common in trade shows, etc.
– In Charlotte, 75 percent of trade show vendors came from
other areas
• Took their sales home with them
• $124M (gross) reduced to $30M (net)
Opportunity Costs?
Economic Impact Analysis
19. Input-Output Models
Spending Realignment & Substitution Effects
• The “zero sum” effect:
– When spending on one activity (pro sporting
events) substitutes for other spending
– Can account for as much as 5%-50% direct event
spending.
– Seattle Mariners: have an impact of $75-$100
Mill., but only $22 Mill. is “new” (Dick Conway)
Economic Impact Analysis
20. Case Study 1: Sporting Events
• American Legion World Series
– Shelby, NC
• 500 hotel rooms
• 47 airport pickups
• $5 million economic impact
http://www.shelbystar.com/articles/expected-57245-world-impact.html
Economic Impact Analysis 16
21. Input-Output Models
Timing of the Study
• a-priori
– Projected spending
• Realistic?
• After the event
– Actual spending
• Appropriate timing depends on purpose
• Comparatively few after the fact studies
Economic Impact Analysis
22. Input-Output Models
Timing: Impacts by Endurance
• Temporary impacts of construction activities
– Construction may last several months or several
years (for some roads, never ending)
– Once construction stops, impacts cease
• Recurring Impacts
– Operations
– Maintenance / repair
• Opportunity costs?
Economic Impact Analysis 18
23. Input-Output Models
Price Adjustments
• I-O models are calibrated to a base year
– Rarely corresponds to the impact year
– Dollar values must be adjusted to model base year
• Sometimes secondary data are “dated”
Economic Impact Analysis
24. Input-Output Models
Defining the Direct Effect
• Most important step
• New firm coming to town
– Industry already exists in the area: use established
multipliers
– Industry not in area: may have to build estimates
based on firm expenditure patterns
• Bill of goods approach
• Costly, time consuming, fraught with error, probably
can’t get detailed data
Economic Impact Analysis
25. What do you count?
• Impacts of a highway include the new
distribution center that locates nearby?
• Impacts of a new reservoir include the new
powerplant that uses the water supply?
• Impact of the Golden Gate Bridge include
increased tourism?
Economic Impact Analysis 21
26. Case Study 2: Port of Baltimore
• “…provides a very comprehensive and extremely
broad view of the economic impact of cargo …”
• Port activity: 50,200 jobs
– 16,500 direct jobs
– 14,200 indirect jobs
– 19,500 induced jobs
• Related activities: 68,300
• “Nearly 120,000 jobs linked to the port.”
http://mpa.maryland.gov/_media/client/planning/EconomicImpactReport-revisedJan%2708.pdf
Economic Impact Analysis 22
27. Case Study 3: Bio-Fuel Plants in Canada
• Construction and operations phases
– 28 plants plus one R&D facility
• Construction
– Adjusted for “opportunity costs”
– $2.3 billion investment
– $2.9 billion impact
– 14,177 jobs
Economic Impact Analysis 23
28. Case Study 3: Bio-Fuel Plants in Canada
• Operating
– Net and Gross
– Includes increased oil exports
– Includes net present value of 30 years of ops
• Gross:
– $2.7 billion
• Net: displacement of feedstock
– $2.0 billion
http://www.greenfuels.org/uploads/documents/01_doyletech_total.pdf
Economic Impact Analysis 24
29. Impact Issue:
More Adjustments?
• New Jobs vs. More Hours
• Exports
• Import substitution
– Disaster impacts
• Spending realignment
• Adjusting output – producer versus purchaser
prices
Economic Impact Analysis 25
30. It’s Not Just The Model;
It’s Also the User
The Biggest Errors in Conducting Impact Analyses Are
Often “User Errors”
All benefits and no negative consequences
Displacement issues (What were residents doing
before there was a baseball stadium?)
Overstating the net new growth
Timing of Impacts
Investment Today, Impacts Tomorrow
Economic Impact Analysis 26
31. Un-Measurable Impacts
• Impacts that are real and have quantity, but
are very difficult to assess.
– Value of media exposure
– Long term impact on tourism, business attraction
(nothing draws a crowd like a lot of people)
– Is an event an amenity that enhances the value of
nearby properties?
Economic Impact Analysis 27
32. Intangible Impacts
• Impacts that are real, but are not practically
observable or measurable.
– Civic pride
– Place bonding
– Community cohesiveness
– Other?
Economic Impact Analysis 28
33. Legion World Series will be an economic grand slam for
Cleveland County. Sunday, Aug 7 2011, 1:17 pm.
National media coverage from ESPN3 will showcase the American Legion
games but will also “paint a picture of what our community’s really like,”
…that estimate, however, is only for the time when the World Series is in
town. …. it’s possible baseball fans will return to Shelby in the coming
months and years, if not for a World Series, then for the charm of Cleveland
County.
500 volunteers
“The way that our entire community has pulled together, worked together,
volunteered, raised money to bring it here —that’ s been a tremendously
unifying force,” Alexander said.
http://www.shelbystar.com/articles/expected-57245-world-impact.html
Economic Impact Analysis 29
34. Conclusions
• Economic impact analysis is a valuable tool –
when properly done.
• State clearly or understand the parameters
and limitations.
• Best analysis does not always result in the
biggest number.
• If conducting or commissioning an impact
study, manage stakeholder expectations.
Economic Impact Analysis 30
35. Questions?
Terry L. Clower, Ph.D.
Center for Economic Development & Research
University of North Texas
tclower@unt.edu
www.unt.edu/cedr
Council for Community & Economic Research (C2ER)
www.c2er.org
Economic Impact Analysis 31
36. Links
• Economic Impact Model for Arts and Heritage. Online tool.
http://www.pro.rcip-chin.gc.ca/sommaire-summary/mieap-eimah-eng.jsp
• Ontario tourism impact model
http://www.mtc.gov.on.ca/en/research/treim/TREIM%20Model%20Design.pdf
• Doyletech
http://www.doyletechcorp.com/services-ea.htm
• Nova Scotia Tourism impact model
http://www.gov.ns.ca/tourisminvestment/research.html
• Yukon Economic Impact Calculator
http://economics.gov.yk.ca/impactcalculator.htm
• Statistics Canada model order form
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olc-cel?lang=eng&catno=15F0004X
Economic Impact Analysis 32
37. Q&A
Please send your questions via the Chat or
Question widget on your dashboard.
38. Stay in Touch
Thank you for joining us!
Celine Favreau
Project Managr, SEDA
@saskecdevassoc
@growourregion
celine.favreau@seda.sk.ca
Dr. Terry L. Clower
Director, Center for Economic Development and Research
University of North Texas
tclower@unt.edu