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ACG Nebraska 2015
Team 1
Daniela Morales, Sergio Gutierrez, Edgar
Lopez, Zhangde Lin
Index
• Objective
• Recommendation
• Qualitative Analysis
– SWOT Analysis
– Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
• Quantitative Analysis
– MediaCo
– ApparelCo
– FashionCo
– MediaCo + ApparelCo
– MediaCo + ApparelCo + FashionCo
• Alternative options
• Conclusion
• Appendix
Objective
• Use qualitative and quantitative analysis to advise
ParentCo on whether to:
– Sell ApparelCo
– Acquire FashionCo
– Keep the status quo
– Pursue other options
Recommendation
ParentCo should sell a majority stake of
ApparelCo.
Qualitative Analysis
SWOT Analysis
Strengths Weaknesses
Opportunities Threats
Internal
External
Positive Negative
StrengthsMediaCo
• Quality consumer product reviews
• Long, established company
• Strong positioning
ApparelCo
• High quality and fashionable apparel
• Good reputation
• Young target audience
• Revenue growth in line with comparable companies
• William Masterson
• Less likely to be impacted by economic downturns
FashionCo
• Ample distribution channels
• Affordable products
Strengths
StrengthsMediaCo
• Non-diversified revenue stream
• Low profits in Production portion
ApparelCo
• Few synergies with MediaCo
• Lower profit margins
• Limited distribution channels
• Vulnerable to changes in weather during seasons
FashionCo
• Lack of owners interest in industry
• Untrendy products
Weaknesses
StrengthsMediaCo
• Capturing new market segment
• Strengthening brands
• Divesting ApparelCo
ApparelCo
• Faster future growth than MediaCo
• Economies of scale
• Advertising through MediaCo channels
FashionCo
• Increase sales percentage in brick and mortar stores
• Potential sale of company
Opportunities
StrengthsMediaCo
• Low industry future expected growth
ApparelCo
• Possible divesture from ParentCo
• Possible request for a seat in the board of directors
from activist hedge funds
• Agency problem
FashionCo
• Lack of customer interest
• Economic downturn can impact demand
Threats
Qualitative Analysis
Porter’s Five
Forces
• Competitors are big
• Low long-term growth
rates
• Low product
differentiation
• Abundance of substitute
products
• Low switching costs
• High buyer propensity to
substitute
• Men, women, and
children
• High price sensitivity
• High customer
acquisition price
• Low switching costs
• Economies of scale
• Low product
differentiation
• Economies of scale
• High branding costs
• High capital
requirements
Buyer Power
Threats of
Substitution
Supplier Power
Threat of New
Entrants
Rivalry
HIGH
HIGH
LOW
LOW
HIGH
• Wide and diverse
competitors
• Long, established
competitors
• Medium exit barriers
• Abundance of substitute
media
• High quality substitute
media
• High customer loyalty
• Low price sensitivity
• Medium switching costs
(print)
• Recurring purchases
• Scattered suppliers
• Low cost of inputs
• Low switching costs
• Economies of scale
• Medium capital
requirements
• Expected to have low
growth
• Internet as point of entry
Buyer Power
Threats of
Substitution
Supplier Power
Threat of New
Entrants
Rivalry
MEDIUM-LOW
HIGH
LOW
MEDIUM-LOW
MEDIUM
Quantitative Analysis
Valuations
$265.7
$195.0
$262.1
$178.6
$393.0
$309.6
$387.6
$283.5
$224.2
$167.2
$819.4
$573.4
$808.2
$525.2
$650.4
$533.3
$641.5
$488.5
$333.1
$418.2
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000
2014A Sales
2014A EBITDA
2015E Sales
2015E EBITDA
2014A Sales
2014A EBITDA
2015E Sales
2015E EBITDA
Perp. Method
Multiple Method
Implied Total Enterprise Value ($ in millions)
Relevant
Mulitple(a)
Precedent
Transactions
3.0x-8.9x
0.5x-1.5x
0.5x-1.5x
3.0x-8.9x
Multiple Method:
3.0x-8.9x exit multiple
8.8-10.8% discount rate
Perp. Method:
-0.89-1.1% growth rate
8.8-10.8% discount rate
DCF
Analysis
4.8x-8.3x
4.8x-8.3x
0.7x-1.2x
0.7x-1.2x
Trading
Comparables
A graphical
summary of the
various
valuation
methodologies
that our team
has reviewed is
presented here
and can help
triangulate
towards a
potential value
Source: ACG Cup 2015
MediaCo Illustrative Preliminary
Valuation Analysis - Summary
MediaCo
Financial Data ($mm)
2014A 2015E
Sales $535.12 $527.80
EBITDA $64.14 $58.74
$113.6
$106.4
$122.4
$114.2
$237.3
$160.9
$255.8
$172.8
$101.0
$89.4
$336.6
$270.0
$362.8
$290.0
$294.7
$239.4
$317.7
$257.0
$294.7
$224.9
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600
2014A Sales
2014A EBITDA
2015E Sales
2015E EBITDA
2014A Sales
2014A EBITDA
2015E Sales
2015E EBITDA
Perp. Method
Multiple Method
Implied Total Enterprise Value ($ in millions)
Relevant
Mulitple(a)
Precedent
Transactions
5.2x-13.2x
0.4x-1.3x
0.4x-1.3x
5.2x-13.2x
Multiple Method:
5.2x-7.2x exit multiple
11.0-13.0% discount
rate
Perp. Method:
7.03%-9% growth rate
11.0-13.0% discount
rate
DCF
Analysis
7.8x-11.7x
7.8x-11.7x
0.9x-1.1x
0.9x-1.1x
Trading
Comparables
A graphical
summary of the
various
valuation
methodologies
that our team
has reviewed is
presented here
and can help
triangulate
towards a
potential value
Source: ACG Cup 2015
ApparelCo Illustrative Preliminary
Valuation Analysis - Summary
Apparel
Financial Data ($mm)
2014A 2015E
Sales $258.10 $278.20
EBITDA $20.53 $22.05
$85.6
$79.7
$91.7
$93.5
$178.8
$120.5
$191.7
$141.5
$99.1
$76.7
$253.6
$202.2
$271.8
$237.4
$222.1
$179.3
$238.0
$210.4
$231.3
$181.2
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
2014A Sales
2014A EBITDA
2015E Sales
2015E EBITDA
2014A Sales
2014A EBITDA
2015E Sales
2015E EBITDA
Perp. Method
Multiple Method
Implied Total Enterprise Value ($ in millions)
Relevant
Mulitple(a)
Precedent
Transactions
5.2x-13.2x
0.4x-1.3x
0.4x-1.3x
5.2x-13.2x
Multiple Method:
5.2x-13.2x exit
multiple
11.0-13.0% discount
rate
Perp. Method:
6.28-8.3% growth rate
11.0-13.0% discount
rate
DCF
Analysis
7.8x-11.7x
7.8x-11.7x
0.9x-1.1x
0.9x-1.1x
Trading
Comparables
A graphical
summary of the
various
valuation
methodologies
that our team
has reviewed is
presented here
and can help
triangulate
towards a
potential value
Source: ACG Cup 2015
FashionCo Illustrative Preliminary
Valuation Analysis - Summary
FashionCo
Financial Data ($mm)
2014A 2015E
Sales $194.46 $208.46
EBITDA $15.38 $18.05
ParentCo Consolidation Financial Statements
Summary
($ in millions) Fiscal Year Ended December,
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Actual Actual Actual Actual Projected Projected Projected
Revenue 364.1$ 391.6$ 420.6$ 452.6$ 486.7$ 525.8$ 565.5$
% Growth 7.5% 7.4% 7.6% 7.5% 8.0% 7.5%
Cost of Goods Sold 298.9$ 319.5$ 342.3$ 368.0$ 396.7$ 428.3$ 461.4$
Gross Profit 65.3$ 72.1$ 78.3$ 84.6$ 90.0$ 97.5$ 104.1$
Gross Margin 17.9% 18.4% 18.6% 18.7% 18.5% 18.5% 18.4%
Selling, General & Administrative 29.3$ 35.9$ 42.8$ 48.7$ 48.1$ 51.0$ 53.9$
Depreciation & Amortization 5.3$ 5.2$ 5.7$ 4.2$ 6.3$ 6.6$ 6.6$
Other OperatingExpenses 2.3$ 1.6$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Operating Income (EBIT) 28.4$ 29.3$ 29.8$ 31.7$ 35.6$ 39.9$ 43.6$
Operating Margin 7.8% 7.5% 7.1% 7.0% 7.3% 7.6% 7.7%
Interest Expense, net 4.5$ 8.3$ 6.6$ 2.8$ 2.2$ 2.4$ 2.5$
EBT 23.9$ 21.1$ 23.2$ 28.9$ 33.4$ 37.5$ 41.1$
Taxes (1)
9.6$ 8.4$ 9.3$ 11.6$ 13.3 15.0 16.4
Net Income Available to Common 14.4$ 12.6$ 13.9$ 17.3$ 20.0$ 22.5$ 24.6$
3.94% 3.23% 3.31% 3.83% 4.11% 4.28% 4.36%
Add: Taxes 9.6$ 8.4$ 9.3$ 11.6$ 13.3$ 15.0$ 16.4$
Add: Interest expense 4.5$ 8.3$ 6.6$ 2.8$ 2.2$ 2.4$ 2.5$
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 5.3$ 5.2$ 5.7$ 4.2$ 6.3$ 6.6$ 6.6$
Adjusted EBITDA 33.7$ 34.6$ 35.5$ 35.9$ 41.8$ 46.5$ 50.1$
EBITDA Margin 9.3% 8.8% 8.4% 7.9% 8.6% 8.8% 8.9%
Capital Expenditures 5.1$ 6.2$ 4.9$ 6.1$ 6.9$ 9.2$ 10.2$
Our team has
reviewed the
historical and
projected
financials as
provided for
each entity
and has
combined
them to
create
ParentCo
Source: ACG Cup 2015
$199.1
$186.0
$216.8
$416.1
$281.5
$328.0
$216.0
$174.4
$590.2
$472.2
$550.3
$516.8
$418.6
$487.8
$557.0
$424.2
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800
2015E Sales
2015E EBITDA
(No Synergies)
2015E EBITDA
(With Synergies)
2015E Sales
2015E EBITDA
(No Synergies)
2015E EBITDA
(With Synergies)
Perp. Method
Multiple Method
Implied Total Enterprise Value ($ in millions)
Relevant
Mulitple(a)
Precedent
Transactions
5.2x-13.2x
5.2x-13.2x
0.4x-1.3x
Multiple Method:
5.2x-13.2x exit multiple
11.0-13.0% discount
rate
Perp. Method:
6.7-8.7% growth rate
11.0-13.0% discount
rate
DCF Analysis
7.8x-11.7x
0.9x-1.1x
Trading
Comparables
Relevant
Mulitple(a)
Precedent
Transactions
DCF Analysis
7.8x-11.7x
Trading
Comparables
A graphical
summary of the
various
valuation
methodologies
that our team
has reviewed is
presented here
and can help
triangulate
towards a
potential value
Source: ACG Cup 2015
ApparelCo&FashionCo Illustrative Preliminary
Valuation Analysis - Summary
Apparel+Fashion
Financial Data ($mm)
2014A 2016E
Sales $452.56 $486.66
EBITDA $35.91 $41.85
NewCo Consolidation Financial Statements
Summary NewCo=MediaCo+ApparelCo+FashionCo
Our team has
reviewed the
historical and
projected
financials as
provided for
each entity
and has
combined
them to
create NewCo
Source: ACG Cup 2015
NewCo - Income Statement
($ in millions) Fiscal Year Ended December,
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Actual Actual Actual Actual Projected Projected Projected
Revenue 886.4$ 932.1$ 972.4$ 987.7$ 1,014.5$ 1,048.1$ 1,088.4$
% Growth 5.2% 4.3% 1.6% 2.7% 3.3% 3.8%
Cost of Goods Sold 605.0$ 632.6$ 670.8$ 684.0$ 709.9$ 739.5$ 767.5$
Gross Profit 281.5$ 299.5$ 301.6$ 303.7$ 304.5$ 308.6$ 320.9$
Gross Margin 31.8% 32.1% 31.0% 30.8% 30.0% 29.4% 29.5%
Selling, General & Administrative 183.7$ 197.1$ 196.1$ 202.0$ 203.9$ 206.1$ 208.7$
Depreciation & Amortization 20.1 20.6 20.6 20.8 22.2 22.6 20.8
Other OperatingExpenses 2.3 1.6 - - - - -
Operating Income (EBIT) 75.4$ 80.2$ 84.9$ 81.0$ 78.4$ 79.9$ 91.4$
Operating Margin 8.5% 8.6% 8.7% 8.2% 7.7% 7.6% 8.4%
Interest Expense, net 7.6 10.4 8.1 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.2
Other (Income) / Expenses 0.5$ (1.6)$ 1.5$ 3.2$ 2.4$ (2.8)$ 1.7$
EBT 68.3$ 68.2$ 78.3$ 79.8$ 76.8$ 73.0$ 88.8$
Taxes
(1)
27.3 27.3 31.3 31.9 30.7 29.2 35.5
Net Income Available to Common 41.0$ 40.9$ 47.0$ 47.9$ 46.1$ 43.8$ 53.3$
4.62% 4.39% 4.83% 4.85% 4.54% 4.18% 4.90%
Add: Taxes 27.3$ 27.3$ 31.3$ 31.9$ 30.7$ 29.2$ 35.5$
Add: Interest expense 7.6 10.4 8.1 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.2
Add: Other (Income) / Expenses 0.5 (1.6) 1.5 3.2 2.4 (2.8) 1.7
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 20.1 20.6 20.6 20.8 22.2 22.6 20.8
Adjusted EBITDA 96.5$ 97.5$ 108.5$ 108.2$ 105.5$ 96.9$ 115.5$
EBITDA Margin 10.9% 10.5% 11.2% 11.0% 10.4% 9.2% 10.6%
Capital Expenditures 20.1 21.6 19.8 22.9 23.2 25.5 25.9
• Status Quo
• Sell ApparelCo
• Sell Majority Stake of ApparelCo
• Buy FashionCo
• Buy Minority Stake of FashionCo
• Status Quo + Liquidity for ShareHolder
• Status Quo + Debt for Investment
Alternatives Options
Conclusion
• ParentCo should not make an offer for FashionCo
• ParentCo should sell a majority stake of ApparelCo
– Based on our aforementioned analysis there is a valuation range applicable to
ApparelCo
– We feel comfortable based on our analysis ,to ballpark an estimate around
$150mm for ApparelCo
• Additional strategies ParentCo could pursue to enhance the value for
ParentCo Shareholder include:
– Issuing additional senior debt
– Issuing subordinated debt
– Issuing equity
Rationale for Conclusion:
Gross Margin Analysis
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
2014 2015 2016 2017
Gross Profit Margin
MediaCo
MediaCo+ApparelCo
MediaCo+ApparelCo
+FashionCo
FashionCo
ApparelCo
2014 2015 2016 2017
MediaCo 40.95% 40.65% 40.42% 41.46%
MediaCo+ApparelCo 33.78% 32.95% 32.25% 32.56%
MediaCo+ApparelCo+Fashio
nCo
30.75% 30.02% 29.44% 29.48%
FashionCo 18.40% 18.70% 19.10% 18.60%
ApparelCo 18.91% 18.33% 18.12% 18.25%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
EBITDA
MediaCo
MediaCo+ApparelC
o
MediaCo+ApparelC
o+FashionCo
FashionCo
ApparelCo
Rationale for Conclusion:
EBITDA Margin Analysis
2014 2015 2016 2017
MediaCo 11.99% 11.13% 10.72% 11.86%
MediaCo+ApparelCo 10.67% 10.02% 9.67% 10.52%
MediaCo+ApparelCo+FashionCo 10.96% 10.40% 9.25% 10.62%
FashionCo 7.91% 8.66% 9.34% 8.74%
ApparelCo 7.96% 7.93% 7.86% 8.36%
Rationale for Conclusion:
EBIT Margin Analysis
2014 2015 2016 2017
MediaCo 8.89% 8.10% 7.66% 9.14%
MediaCo+ApparelCo 8.27% 7.63% 7.21% 8.45%
MediaCo+ApparelCo+Fashi
onCo
8.20% 7.72% 7.62% 8.39%
FashionCo 7.02% 7.26% 8.31% 7.38%
ApparelCo 6.99% 6.73% 6.45% 7.34%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
2014 2015 2016 2017
EBIT
MediaCo
MediaCo+ApparelCo
MediaCo+ApparelCo
+FashionCo
FashionCo
ApparelCo
Rationale for Conclusion:
Net Income Margin Analysis
0.03
0.035
0.04
0.045
0.05
0.055
2014 2015 2016 2017
Net Income Margin
MediaCo
MediaCo+ApparelCo
MediaCo+ApparelCo
+FashionCo
FashionCo
ApparelCo
2014 2015 2016 2017
MediaCo 4.79% 4.39% 4.71% 5.09%
MediaCo+ApparelCo 4.51% 4.17% 4.30% 4.73%
MediaCo+ApparelCo+FashionCo 4.85% 4.54% 4.18% 4.90%
FashionCo 3.70% 4.09% 4.71% 4.15%
ApparelCo 3.93% 3.76% 3.59% 4.15%
Thank you!!
Q&A
Appendix
1. MediaCo Discount Cash Flow
2. ApparelCo Discount Cash Flow
3. FashionCo Discount Cash Flow
4. ApparelCo+FashionCo Discount Cash Flow
5. Comparable Companies Multiples Analysis
6. MediaCo Comparable Transaction Analysis
7. ApparelCo & FashionCo Comparable Transaction Analysis
1. MediaCo Preliminary Discounted Cash
Flow Analysis
2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Sales $208.5 $224.0 $240.1
% growth 7.5% 7.2%
PF EBITDA 58.7 56.0 62.0
% margin 28.2% 25.0% 25.8%
Depreciation & Amortization 16.0 16.0 14.2
PF EBIT 42.8 40.0 47.8
% margin 20.5% 17.9% 19.9%
Taxes @ 40% 17.1 16.0 19.1
Unlevered Net Income $25.7 $24.0 $28.7
+ Depreciation & Amortization 16.0 16.0 14.2
- Capital expenditures 16.3 16.3 15.8
- Changes in working capital 12.4 0.5 (0.0)
Unlevered free cash flow $13.0 $23.2 $27.2
PerpetuityMethod
Growth Rate
$267 -0.89% 0.1% 1.1%
7.8% $302.8 $338.1 $384.1
Discount 8.8% $271.0 $298.5 $333.1
Rate 9.8% $245.3 $267.2 $294.2
10.8% $224.2 $242.1 $263.6
11.8% $206.6 $221.4 $238.9
Multiples Method
Exit Multiple
$287 3.0x 6.0x 8.9x
7.8% $183.8 $309.6 $435.4
Discount 8.8% $178.0 $298.1 $418.2
Rate 9.8% $172.4 $287.2 $401.9
10.8% $167.2 $276.8 $386.5
11.8% $162.2 $267.1 $371.9
2. ApparelCo Preliminary Discounted Cash
Flow Analysis
2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Sales $278.2 $301.8 $325.4
% growth 8.5% 7.8%
PF EBITDA 22.1 23.7 27.2
% margin 7.9% 7.9% 8.4%
Depreciation & Amortization 3.3 4.3 3.3
PF EBIT 18.7 19.5 23.9
% margin 6.7% 6.4% 7.3%
Taxes @ 40% 7.5 7.8 9.6
Unlevered Net Income $11.2 $11.7 $14.3
+ Depreciation & Amortization 3.3 4.3 3.3
- Capital expenditures 4.9 6.3 5.9
- Changes in working capital 5.9 4.6 4.6
Unlevered free cash flow $3.8 $4.9 $7.1
PerpetuityMethod
Growth Rate
$150 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%
10.0% $203.0 $299.7 $586.2
Discount 11.0% $152.0 $199.7 $294.7
Rate 12.0% $121.4 $149.5 $196.4
13.0% $101.0 $119.5 $147.2
14.0% $86.5 $99.5 $117.7
Multiples Method
Exit Multiple
$154 5.2x 9.2x 13.2x
10.0% $100.4 $167.6 $234.7
Discount 11.0% $96.5 $160.7 $224.9
Rate 12.0% $92.9 $154.3 $215.6
13.0% $89.4 $148.1 $206.8
14.0% $86.1 $142.3 $198.5
3. FashionCo Preliminary Discounted Cash
Flow Analysis
2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Sales $208.5 $224.0 $240.1
% growth 7.5% 7.2%
PF EBITDA 18.1 20.9 21.0
% margin 8.7% 9.3% 8.7%
Depreciation & Amortization 2.9 2.3 3.3
PF EBIT 15.1 18.6 17.7
% margin 7.3% 8.3% 7.4%
Taxes @ 40% 6.1 7.4 7.1
Unlevered Net Income $9.1 $11.2 $10.6
+ Depreciation & Amortization 2.9 2.3 3.3
- Capital expenditures 2.1 2.9 4.3
- Changes in working capital 4.7 2.1 2.1
Unlevered free cash flow $5.3 $8.6 $7.5
PerpetuityMethod
Growth Rate
$137 6.28% 7.3% 8.3%
10.0% $176.0 $235.1 $361.1
Discount 11.0% $139.5 $173.2 $231.3
Rate 12.0% $115.7 $137.4 $170.5
13.0% $99.1 $114.0 $135.3
14.0% $86.8 $97.7 $112.4
Multiples Method
Exit Multiple
$127 5.2x 9.2x 13.2x
10.0% $85.2 $137.0 $188.8
Discount 11.0% $82.2 $131.7 $181.2
Rate 12.0% $79.4 $126.7 $174.1
13.0% $76.7 $122.0 $167.3
14.0% $74.1 $117.5 $160.8
4. ApparelCo+FashionCo Preliminary
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Sales $208.5 $224.0 $240.1
% growth 7.5% 7.2%
PF EBITDA 41.8 46.5 50.1
% margin 20.1% 20.7% 20.9%
Depreciation & Amortization 6.3 6.6 6.6
PF EBIT 35.6 39.9 43.6
% margin 17.1% 17.8% 18.1%
Taxes @ 40% 14.2 16.0 17.4
Unlevered Net Income $21.4 $23.9 $26.1
+ Depreciation & Amortization 6.3 6.6 6.6
- Capital expenditures 6.9 9.2 10.2
- Changes in working capital 10.6 6.7 6.8
Unlevered free cash flow $10.1 $14.6 $15.8
PerpetuityMethod
Growth Rate
$309 6.66% 7.7% 8.7%
10.0% $406.0 $566.5 $957.0
Discount 11.0% $313.6 $399.5 $557.0
Rate 12.0% $255.7 $308.7 $393.1
13.0% $216.0 $251.9 $304.0
14.0% $187.3 $213.0 $248.2
Multiples Method
Exit Multiple
$294 5.2x 9.2x 13.2x
10.0% $194.6 $318.4 $442.2
Discount 11.0% $187.5 $305.8 $424.2
Rate 12.0% $180.8 $293.9 $407.0
13.0% $174.4 $282.6 $390.8
14.0% $168.3 $271.9 $375.4
5. Comparable Companies Multiples Analysis
Comparable Company Multiples
(figures in millions except per share amount)
Shares LTM LTM LTM LTM Sales EBITDA
Company Ticker Stock Price Outstanding Debt Cash Sales EBITDA EBIT Earnings Market Cap Multiple Multiple
Gannett Co., Inc. GCI $31.50 225.6 $4,112.6 $1,374.5 $5,675.2 $1,254.7 $1,023.9 $476.9 $7,107.88 1.3x 5.7x
Lee Enterprises, Incorporated LEE 3.73 53.7 815.0 17.8 657.1 160.2 112.9 (85.1) 200.36 0.3x 1.3x
The McClatchy Company MNI 3.56 86.7 1,560.3 225.1 1,215.2 248.9 144.6 83.9 308.82 0.3x 1.2x
The New York Times Company NYT 12.84 150.3 669.4 414.6 1,587.7 232.1 152.8 64.1 1,929.87 1.2x 8.3x
Time Inc. TIME 22.59 109.0 1,376.0 325.0 3,352.0 510.0 352.0 8.0 2,461.63 0.7x 4.8x
Shares LTM LTM LTM LTM Sales EBITDA
Company Ticker Stock Price Outstanding Debt Cash Sales EBITDA EBIT Earnings Market Cap Multiple Multiple
Ever-Glory International Group, Inc. EVK $6.19 14.8 $55.4 $25.0 $422.3 $27.0 $20.8 $12.8 $91.55 0.2x 3.4x
G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. GIII 79.35 22.4 71.2 21.5 1,931.7 152.4 135.9 80.2 1,776.25 0.9x 11.7x
Oxford Industries Inc. OXM 61.25 16.5 108.5 6.4 951.8 121.9 85.3 45.9 1,008.73 1.1x 8.3x
Perry Ellis International Inc. PERY 20.45 15.7 172.5 49.2 899.0 34.7 21.3 (25.1) 321.62 0.4x 9.3x
PVH Corp. PVH 114.35 82.4 3,907.4 461.1 8,250.7 1,202.2 948.9 321.0 9,421.64 1.1x 7.8x
V.F. Corporation VFC 67.68 431.1 2,083.5 496.5 11,993.4 2,047.8 1,775.2 1,293.1 29,176.92 2.4x 14.2x
6. MediaCo Comparable Transaction Analysis
Comparable Company Analysis - Comparable Transactions
($ in millions)
Announced Target EV / EV / EBITDA
Transaction Date Enterprise Value Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA Margin
Transaction 1 2014 $972 NA 11.7x NA $83 NA
Transaction 2 2014 690 NA NA NA NA NA
Transaction 3 2014 511 1.5x 8.9x $334 58 17.2%
Transaction 4 2014 350 NA NA NA NA NA
Transaction 5 2014 25 0.2x 6.9x 139 4 2.6%
Transaction 6 2014 6 0.5x 3.5x 13 2 14.2%
Transaction 7 2013 105 0.8x 8.9x 140 12 8.4%
Transaction 8 2013 76 1.9x NA 41 NA NA
Transaction 9 2013 82 0.5x 3.0x 162 27 16.7%
Transaction 10 2013 252 1.1x NA 239 NA NA
Transaction 11 2013 3 0.3x NA 12 NA NA
Transaction 12 2013 829 2.1x 8.0x 386 103 26.7%
Transaction 13 2013 201 NA NA NA NA NA
Transaction 14 2013 355 2.1x 11.3x 171 31 18.4%
Transaction 15 2013 108 NA 17.0x NA 6 NA
Transaction 16 2013 214 2.7x NA 80 NA NA
Transaction 17 2012 13 0.3x 8.7x 42 1 3.5%
Transaction 18 2012 86 1.0x 5.2x 85 16 19.5%
Transaction 19 2012 15 0.4x 8.6x 41 2 4.3%
Min $3 0.2x 3.0x
Max 972 2.7x 17.0x
Median 108 0.9x 8.6x
Mean 258 1.1x 8.5x
7. ApparelCo & FashionCo Comparable
Transaction Analysis
Comparable Company Analysis - Comparable Transactions
($ in millions)
Announced Target EV / EV / EBITDA
Transaction Date Enterprise Value Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA Margin
Transaction 1 2014 $359 0.6x NA $633 NA NA
Transaction 2 2014 189 NA 13.0x NA $15 NA
Transaction 3 2013 2,201 0.6x 9.8x 3,848 226 5.9%
Transaction 4 2013 1,486 1.4x 11.1x 1,031 134 13.0%
Transaction 5 2013 615 2.2x 9.6x 285 64 22.5%
Transaction 6 2013 253 1.3x 13.2x 194 19 9.9%
Transaction 7 2013 2,274 0.9x 8.0x 2,503 285 11.4%
Transaction 8 2013 567 1.0x 13.1x 562 43 7.7%
Transaction 9 2013 143 1.9x 13.5x 74 11 14.3%
Transaction 10 2013 1,000 1.1x 9.8x 921 102 11.0%
Transaction 11 2013 628 1.3x 7.2x 481 87 18.1%
Transaction 12 2013 18 0.4x 9.8x 46 2 4.0%
Transaction 13 2013 548 0.7x 8.7x 742 63 8.5%
Transaction 14 2012 2,847 1.2x 9.9x 2,406 288 12.0%
Transaction 15 2012 88 0.4x 5.2x 200 17 8.5%
Transaction 16 2012 852 0.4x 10.2x 1,969 84 4.3%
Transaction 17 2012 1,809 0.5x 8.4x 3,505 216 6.2%
Transaction 18 2012 246 0.5x 10.6x 478 23 4.9%
Transaction 19 2012 553 4.4x 10.9x 125 51 40.5%
Transaction 20 2012 58 0.4x 5.5x 139 11 7.6%
Transaction 21 2011 60 0.6x 10.6x 103 6 5.5%
Transaction 22 2011 60 0.6x 10.6x 103 6 5.5%
Transaction 23 2011 357 0.3x NA 1,144 NA NA
Min $18 0.3x 5.2x
Max 2,847 4.4x 13.5x
Median 548 0.7x 9.9x
Mean 748 1.0x 9.9x

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Team 1 presentation acg cup v1

  • 1. ACG Nebraska 2015 Team 1 Daniela Morales, Sergio Gutierrez, Edgar Lopez, Zhangde Lin
  • 2. Index • Objective • Recommendation • Qualitative Analysis – SWOT Analysis – Porter’s Five Forces Analysis • Quantitative Analysis – MediaCo – ApparelCo – FashionCo – MediaCo + ApparelCo – MediaCo + ApparelCo + FashionCo • Alternative options • Conclusion • Appendix
  • 3. Objective • Use qualitative and quantitative analysis to advise ParentCo on whether to: – Sell ApparelCo – Acquire FashionCo – Keep the status quo – Pursue other options
  • 4. Recommendation ParentCo should sell a majority stake of ApparelCo.
  • 7. StrengthsMediaCo • Quality consumer product reviews • Long, established company • Strong positioning ApparelCo • High quality and fashionable apparel • Good reputation • Young target audience • Revenue growth in line with comparable companies • William Masterson • Less likely to be impacted by economic downturns FashionCo • Ample distribution channels • Affordable products Strengths
  • 8. StrengthsMediaCo • Non-diversified revenue stream • Low profits in Production portion ApparelCo • Few synergies with MediaCo • Lower profit margins • Limited distribution channels • Vulnerable to changes in weather during seasons FashionCo • Lack of owners interest in industry • Untrendy products Weaknesses
  • 9. StrengthsMediaCo • Capturing new market segment • Strengthening brands • Divesting ApparelCo ApparelCo • Faster future growth than MediaCo • Economies of scale • Advertising through MediaCo channels FashionCo • Increase sales percentage in brick and mortar stores • Potential sale of company Opportunities
  • 10. StrengthsMediaCo • Low industry future expected growth ApparelCo • Possible divesture from ParentCo • Possible request for a seat in the board of directors from activist hedge funds • Agency problem FashionCo • Lack of customer interest • Economic downturn can impact demand Threats
  • 12. • Competitors are big • Low long-term growth rates • Low product differentiation • Abundance of substitute products • Low switching costs • High buyer propensity to substitute • Men, women, and children • High price sensitivity • High customer acquisition price • Low switching costs • Economies of scale • Low product differentiation • Economies of scale • High branding costs • High capital requirements Buyer Power Threats of Substitution Supplier Power Threat of New Entrants Rivalry HIGH HIGH LOW LOW HIGH
  • 13. • Wide and diverse competitors • Long, established competitors • Medium exit barriers • Abundance of substitute media • High quality substitute media • High customer loyalty • Low price sensitivity • Medium switching costs (print) • Recurring purchases • Scattered suppliers • Low cost of inputs • Low switching costs • Economies of scale • Medium capital requirements • Expected to have low growth • Internet as point of entry Buyer Power Threats of Substitution Supplier Power Threat of New Entrants Rivalry MEDIUM-LOW HIGH LOW MEDIUM-LOW MEDIUM
  • 15. $265.7 $195.0 $262.1 $178.6 $393.0 $309.6 $387.6 $283.5 $224.2 $167.2 $819.4 $573.4 $808.2 $525.2 $650.4 $533.3 $641.5 $488.5 $333.1 $418.2 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 2014A Sales 2014A EBITDA 2015E Sales 2015E EBITDA 2014A Sales 2014A EBITDA 2015E Sales 2015E EBITDA Perp. Method Multiple Method Implied Total Enterprise Value ($ in millions) Relevant Mulitple(a) Precedent Transactions 3.0x-8.9x 0.5x-1.5x 0.5x-1.5x 3.0x-8.9x Multiple Method: 3.0x-8.9x exit multiple 8.8-10.8% discount rate Perp. Method: -0.89-1.1% growth rate 8.8-10.8% discount rate DCF Analysis 4.8x-8.3x 4.8x-8.3x 0.7x-1.2x 0.7x-1.2x Trading Comparables A graphical summary of the various valuation methodologies that our team has reviewed is presented here and can help triangulate towards a potential value Source: ACG Cup 2015 MediaCo Illustrative Preliminary Valuation Analysis - Summary MediaCo Financial Data ($mm) 2014A 2015E Sales $535.12 $527.80 EBITDA $64.14 $58.74
  • 16. $113.6 $106.4 $122.4 $114.2 $237.3 $160.9 $255.8 $172.8 $101.0 $89.4 $336.6 $270.0 $362.8 $290.0 $294.7 $239.4 $317.7 $257.0 $294.7 $224.9 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 2014A Sales 2014A EBITDA 2015E Sales 2015E EBITDA 2014A Sales 2014A EBITDA 2015E Sales 2015E EBITDA Perp. Method Multiple Method Implied Total Enterprise Value ($ in millions) Relevant Mulitple(a) Precedent Transactions 5.2x-13.2x 0.4x-1.3x 0.4x-1.3x 5.2x-13.2x Multiple Method: 5.2x-7.2x exit multiple 11.0-13.0% discount rate Perp. Method: 7.03%-9% growth rate 11.0-13.0% discount rate DCF Analysis 7.8x-11.7x 7.8x-11.7x 0.9x-1.1x 0.9x-1.1x Trading Comparables A graphical summary of the various valuation methodologies that our team has reviewed is presented here and can help triangulate towards a potential value Source: ACG Cup 2015 ApparelCo Illustrative Preliminary Valuation Analysis - Summary Apparel Financial Data ($mm) 2014A 2015E Sales $258.10 $278.20 EBITDA $20.53 $22.05
  • 17. $85.6 $79.7 $91.7 $93.5 $178.8 $120.5 $191.7 $141.5 $99.1 $76.7 $253.6 $202.2 $271.8 $237.4 $222.1 $179.3 $238.0 $210.4 $231.3 $181.2 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 2014A Sales 2014A EBITDA 2015E Sales 2015E EBITDA 2014A Sales 2014A EBITDA 2015E Sales 2015E EBITDA Perp. Method Multiple Method Implied Total Enterprise Value ($ in millions) Relevant Mulitple(a) Precedent Transactions 5.2x-13.2x 0.4x-1.3x 0.4x-1.3x 5.2x-13.2x Multiple Method: 5.2x-13.2x exit multiple 11.0-13.0% discount rate Perp. Method: 6.28-8.3% growth rate 11.0-13.0% discount rate DCF Analysis 7.8x-11.7x 7.8x-11.7x 0.9x-1.1x 0.9x-1.1x Trading Comparables A graphical summary of the various valuation methodologies that our team has reviewed is presented here and can help triangulate towards a potential value Source: ACG Cup 2015 FashionCo Illustrative Preliminary Valuation Analysis - Summary FashionCo Financial Data ($mm) 2014A 2015E Sales $194.46 $208.46 EBITDA $15.38 $18.05
  • 18. ParentCo Consolidation Financial Statements Summary ($ in millions) Fiscal Year Ended December, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual Actual Actual Actual Projected Projected Projected Revenue 364.1$ 391.6$ 420.6$ 452.6$ 486.7$ 525.8$ 565.5$ % Growth 7.5% 7.4% 7.6% 7.5% 8.0% 7.5% Cost of Goods Sold 298.9$ 319.5$ 342.3$ 368.0$ 396.7$ 428.3$ 461.4$ Gross Profit 65.3$ 72.1$ 78.3$ 84.6$ 90.0$ 97.5$ 104.1$ Gross Margin 17.9% 18.4% 18.6% 18.7% 18.5% 18.5% 18.4% Selling, General & Administrative 29.3$ 35.9$ 42.8$ 48.7$ 48.1$ 51.0$ 53.9$ Depreciation & Amortization 5.3$ 5.2$ 5.7$ 4.2$ 6.3$ 6.6$ 6.6$ Other OperatingExpenses 2.3$ 1.6$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Operating Income (EBIT) 28.4$ 29.3$ 29.8$ 31.7$ 35.6$ 39.9$ 43.6$ Operating Margin 7.8% 7.5% 7.1% 7.0% 7.3% 7.6% 7.7% Interest Expense, net 4.5$ 8.3$ 6.6$ 2.8$ 2.2$ 2.4$ 2.5$ EBT 23.9$ 21.1$ 23.2$ 28.9$ 33.4$ 37.5$ 41.1$ Taxes (1) 9.6$ 8.4$ 9.3$ 11.6$ 13.3 15.0 16.4 Net Income Available to Common 14.4$ 12.6$ 13.9$ 17.3$ 20.0$ 22.5$ 24.6$ 3.94% 3.23% 3.31% 3.83% 4.11% 4.28% 4.36% Add: Taxes 9.6$ 8.4$ 9.3$ 11.6$ 13.3$ 15.0$ 16.4$ Add: Interest expense 4.5$ 8.3$ 6.6$ 2.8$ 2.2$ 2.4$ 2.5$ Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 5.3$ 5.2$ 5.7$ 4.2$ 6.3$ 6.6$ 6.6$ Adjusted EBITDA 33.7$ 34.6$ 35.5$ 35.9$ 41.8$ 46.5$ 50.1$ EBITDA Margin 9.3% 8.8% 8.4% 7.9% 8.6% 8.8% 8.9% Capital Expenditures 5.1$ 6.2$ 4.9$ 6.1$ 6.9$ 9.2$ 10.2$ Our team has reviewed the historical and projected financials as provided for each entity and has combined them to create ParentCo Source: ACG Cup 2015
  • 19. $199.1 $186.0 $216.8 $416.1 $281.5 $328.0 $216.0 $174.4 $590.2 $472.2 $550.3 $516.8 $418.6 $487.8 $557.0 $424.2 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 2015E Sales 2015E EBITDA (No Synergies) 2015E EBITDA (With Synergies) 2015E Sales 2015E EBITDA (No Synergies) 2015E EBITDA (With Synergies) Perp. Method Multiple Method Implied Total Enterprise Value ($ in millions) Relevant Mulitple(a) Precedent Transactions 5.2x-13.2x 5.2x-13.2x 0.4x-1.3x Multiple Method: 5.2x-13.2x exit multiple 11.0-13.0% discount rate Perp. Method: 6.7-8.7% growth rate 11.0-13.0% discount rate DCF Analysis 7.8x-11.7x 0.9x-1.1x Trading Comparables Relevant Mulitple(a) Precedent Transactions DCF Analysis 7.8x-11.7x Trading Comparables A graphical summary of the various valuation methodologies that our team has reviewed is presented here and can help triangulate towards a potential value Source: ACG Cup 2015 ApparelCo&FashionCo Illustrative Preliminary Valuation Analysis - Summary Apparel+Fashion Financial Data ($mm) 2014A 2016E Sales $452.56 $486.66 EBITDA $35.91 $41.85
  • 20. NewCo Consolidation Financial Statements Summary NewCo=MediaCo+ApparelCo+FashionCo Our team has reviewed the historical and projected financials as provided for each entity and has combined them to create NewCo Source: ACG Cup 2015 NewCo - Income Statement ($ in millions) Fiscal Year Ended December, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual Actual Actual Actual Projected Projected Projected Revenue 886.4$ 932.1$ 972.4$ 987.7$ 1,014.5$ 1,048.1$ 1,088.4$ % Growth 5.2% 4.3% 1.6% 2.7% 3.3% 3.8% Cost of Goods Sold 605.0$ 632.6$ 670.8$ 684.0$ 709.9$ 739.5$ 767.5$ Gross Profit 281.5$ 299.5$ 301.6$ 303.7$ 304.5$ 308.6$ 320.9$ Gross Margin 31.8% 32.1% 31.0% 30.8% 30.0% 29.4% 29.5% Selling, General & Administrative 183.7$ 197.1$ 196.1$ 202.0$ 203.9$ 206.1$ 208.7$ Depreciation & Amortization 20.1 20.6 20.6 20.8 22.2 22.6 20.8 Other OperatingExpenses 2.3 1.6 - - - - - Operating Income (EBIT) 75.4$ 80.2$ 84.9$ 81.0$ 78.4$ 79.9$ 91.4$ Operating Margin 8.5% 8.6% 8.7% 8.2% 7.7% 7.6% 8.4% Interest Expense, net 7.6 10.4 8.1 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.2 Other (Income) / Expenses 0.5$ (1.6)$ 1.5$ 3.2$ 2.4$ (2.8)$ 1.7$ EBT 68.3$ 68.2$ 78.3$ 79.8$ 76.8$ 73.0$ 88.8$ Taxes (1) 27.3 27.3 31.3 31.9 30.7 29.2 35.5 Net Income Available to Common 41.0$ 40.9$ 47.0$ 47.9$ 46.1$ 43.8$ 53.3$ 4.62% 4.39% 4.83% 4.85% 4.54% 4.18% 4.90% Add: Taxes 27.3$ 27.3$ 31.3$ 31.9$ 30.7$ 29.2$ 35.5$ Add: Interest expense 7.6 10.4 8.1 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.2 Add: Other (Income) / Expenses 0.5 (1.6) 1.5 3.2 2.4 (2.8) 1.7 Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 20.1 20.6 20.6 20.8 22.2 22.6 20.8 Adjusted EBITDA 96.5$ 97.5$ 108.5$ 108.2$ 105.5$ 96.9$ 115.5$ EBITDA Margin 10.9% 10.5% 11.2% 11.0% 10.4% 9.2% 10.6% Capital Expenditures 20.1 21.6 19.8 22.9 23.2 25.5 25.9
  • 21. • Status Quo • Sell ApparelCo • Sell Majority Stake of ApparelCo • Buy FashionCo • Buy Minority Stake of FashionCo • Status Quo + Liquidity for ShareHolder • Status Quo + Debt for Investment Alternatives Options
  • 22. Conclusion • ParentCo should not make an offer for FashionCo • ParentCo should sell a majority stake of ApparelCo – Based on our aforementioned analysis there is a valuation range applicable to ApparelCo – We feel comfortable based on our analysis ,to ballpark an estimate around $150mm for ApparelCo • Additional strategies ParentCo could pursue to enhance the value for ParentCo Shareholder include: – Issuing additional senior debt – Issuing subordinated debt – Issuing equity
  • 23. Rationale for Conclusion: Gross Margin Analysis 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 2014 2015 2016 2017 Gross Profit Margin MediaCo MediaCo+ApparelCo MediaCo+ApparelCo +FashionCo FashionCo ApparelCo 2014 2015 2016 2017 MediaCo 40.95% 40.65% 40.42% 41.46% MediaCo+ApparelCo 33.78% 32.95% 32.25% 32.56% MediaCo+ApparelCo+Fashio nCo 30.75% 30.02% 29.44% 29.48% FashionCo 18.40% 18.70% 19.10% 18.60% ApparelCo 18.91% 18.33% 18.12% 18.25%
  • 24. 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% EBITDA MediaCo MediaCo+ApparelC o MediaCo+ApparelC o+FashionCo FashionCo ApparelCo Rationale for Conclusion: EBITDA Margin Analysis 2014 2015 2016 2017 MediaCo 11.99% 11.13% 10.72% 11.86% MediaCo+ApparelCo 10.67% 10.02% 9.67% 10.52% MediaCo+ApparelCo+FashionCo 10.96% 10.40% 9.25% 10.62% FashionCo 7.91% 8.66% 9.34% 8.74% ApparelCo 7.96% 7.93% 7.86% 8.36%
  • 25. Rationale for Conclusion: EBIT Margin Analysis 2014 2015 2016 2017 MediaCo 8.89% 8.10% 7.66% 9.14% MediaCo+ApparelCo 8.27% 7.63% 7.21% 8.45% MediaCo+ApparelCo+Fashi onCo 8.20% 7.72% 7.62% 8.39% FashionCo 7.02% 7.26% 8.31% 7.38% ApparelCo 6.99% 6.73% 6.45% 7.34% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 2014 2015 2016 2017 EBIT MediaCo MediaCo+ApparelCo MediaCo+ApparelCo +FashionCo FashionCo ApparelCo
  • 26. Rationale for Conclusion: Net Income Margin Analysis 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045 0.05 0.055 2014 2015 2016 2017 Net Income Margin MediaCo MediaCo+ApparelCo MediaCo+ApparelCo +FashionCo FashionCo ApparelCo 2014 2015 2016 2017 MediaCo 4.79% 4.39% 4.71% 5.09% MediaCo+ApparelCo 4.51% 4.17% 4.30% 4.73% MediaCo+ApparelCo+FashionCo 4.85% 4.54% 4.18% 4.90% FashionCo 3.70% 4.09% 4.71% 4.15% ApparelCo 3.93% 3.76% 3.59% 4.15%
  • 28. Appendix 1. MediaCo Discount Cash Flow 2. ApparelCo Discount Cash Flow 3. FashionCo Discount Cash Flow 4. ApparelCo+FashionCo Discount Cash Flow 5. Comparable Companies Multiples Analysis 6. MediaCo Comparable Transaction Analysis 7. ApparelCo & FashionCo Comparable Transaction Analysis
  • 29. 1. MediaCo Preliminary Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 2015E 2016E 2017E Net Sales $208.5 $224.0 $240.1 % growth 7.5% 7.2% PF EBITDA 58.7 56.0 62.0 % margin 28.2% 25.0% 25.8% Depreciation & Amortization 16.0 16.0 14.2 PF EBIT 42.8 40.0 47.8 % margin 20.5% 17.9% 19.9% Taxes @ 40% 17.1 16.0 19.1 Unlevered Net Income $25.7 $24.0 $28.7 + Depreciation & Amortization 16.0 16.0 14.2 - Capital expenditures 16.3 16.3 15.8 - Changes in working capital 12.4 0.5 (0.0) Unlevered free cash flow $13.0 $23.2 $27.2 PerpetuityMethod Growth Rate $267 -0.89% 0.1% 1.1% 7.8% $302.8 $338.1 $384.1 Discount 8.8% $271.0 $298.5 $333.1 Rate 9.8% $245.3 $267.2 $294.2 10.8% $224.2 $242.1 $263.6 11.8% $206.6 $221.4 $238.9 Multiples Method Exit Multiple $287 3.0x 6.0x 8.9x 7.8% $183.8 $309.6 $435.4 Discount 8.8% $178.0 $298.1 $418.2 Rate 9.8% $172.4 $287.2 $401.9 10.8% $167.2 $276.8 $386.5 11.8% $162.2 $267.1 $371.9
  • 30. 2. ApparelCo Preliminary Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 2015E 2016E 2017E Net Sales $278.2 $301.8 $325.4 % growth 8.5% 7.8% PF EBITDA 22.1 23.7 27.2 % margin 7.9% 7.9% 8.4% Depreciation & Amortization 3.3 4.3 3.3 PF EBIT 18.7 19.5 23.9 % margin 6.7% 6.4% 7.3% Taxes @ 40% 7.5 7.8 9.6 Unlevered Net Income $11.2 $11.7 $14.3 + Depreciation & Amortization 3.3 4.3 3.3 - Capital expenditures 4.9 6.3 5.9 - Changes in working capital 5.9 4.6 4.6 Unlevered free cash flow $3.8 $4.9 $7.1 PerpetuityMethod Growth Rate $150 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% $203.0 $299.7 $586.2 Discount 11.0% $152.0 $199.7 $294.7 Rate 12.0% $121.4 $149.5 $196.4 13.0% $101.0 $119.5 $147.2 14.0% $86.5 $99.5 $117.7 Multiples Method Exit Multiple $154 5.2x 9.2x 13.2x 10.0% $100.4 $167.6 $234.7 Discount 11.0% $96.5 $160.7 $224.9 Rate 12.0% $92.9 $154.3 $215.6 13.0% $89.4 $148.1 $206.8 14.0% $86.1 $142.3 $198.5
  • 31. 3. FashionCo Preliminary Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 2015E 2016E 2017E Net Sales $208.5 $224.0 $240.1 % growth 7.5% 7.2% PF EBITDA 18.1 20.9 21.0 % margin 8.7% 9.3% 8.7% Depreciation & Amortization 2.9 2.3 3.3 PF EBIT 15.1 18.6 17.7 % margin 7.3% 8.3% 7.4% Taxes @ 40% 6.1 7.4 7.1 Unlevered Net Income $9.1 $11.2 $10.6 + Depreciation & Amortization 2.9 2.3 3.3 - Capital expenditures 2.1 2.9 4.3 - Changes in working capital 4.7 2.1 2.1 Unlevered free cash flow $5.3 $8.6 $7.5 PerpetuityMethod Growth Rate $137 6.28% 7.3% 8.3% 10.0% $176.0 $235.1 $361.1 Discount 11.0% $139.5 $173.2 $231.3 Rate 12.0% $115.7 $137.4 $170.5 13.0% $99.1 $114.0 $135.3 14.0% $86.8 $97.7 $112.4 Multiples Method Exit Multiple $127 5.2x 9.2x 13.2x 10.0% $85.2 $137.0 $188.8 Discount 11.0% $82.2 $131.7 $181.2 Rate 12.0% $79.4 $126.7 $174.1 13.0% $76.7 $122.0 $167.3 14.0% $74.1 $117.5 $160.8
  • 32. 4. ApparelCo+FashionCo Preliminary Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 2015E 2016E 2017E Net Sales $208.5 $224.0 $240.1 % growth 7.5% 7.2% PF EBITDA 41.8 46.5 50.1 % margin 20.1% 20.7% 20.9% Depreciation & Amortization 6.3 6.6 6.6 PF EBIT 35.6 39.9 43.6 % margin 17.1% 17.8% 18.1% Taxes @ 40% 14.2 16.0 17.4 Unlevered Net Income $21.4 $23.9 $26.1 + Depreciation & Amortization 6.3 6.6 6.6 - Capital expenditures 6.9 9.2 10.2 - Changes in working capital 10.6 6.7 6.8 Unlevered free cash flow $10.1 $14.6 $15.8 PerpetuityMethod Growth Rate $309 6.66% 7.7% 8.7% 10.0% $406.0 $566.5 $957.0 Discount 11.0% $313.6 $399.5 $557.0 Rate 12.0% $255.7 $308.7 $393.1 13.0% $216.0 $251.9 $304.0 14.0% $187.3 $213.0 $248.2 Multiples Method Exit Multiple $294 5.2x 9.2x 13.2x 10.0% $194.6 $318.4 $442.2 Discount 11.0% $187.5 $305.8 $424.2 Rate 12.0% $180.8 $293.9 $407.0 13.0% $174.4 $282.6 $390.8 14.0% $168.3 $271.9 $375.4
  • 33. 5. Comparable Companies Multiples Analysis Comparable Company Multiples (figures in millions except per share amount) Shares LTM LTM LTM LTM Sales EBITDA Company Ticker Stock Price Outstanding Debt Cash Sales EBITDA EBIT Earnings Market Cap Multiple Multiple Gannett Co., Inc. GCI $31.50 225.6 $4,112.6 $1,374.5 $5,675.2 $1,254.7 $1,023.9 $476.9 $7,107.88 1.3x 5.7x Lee Enterprises, Incorporated LEE 3.73 53.7 815.0 17.8 657.1 160.2 112.9 (85.1) 200.36 0.3x 1.3x The McClatchy Company MNI 3.56 86.7 1,560.3 225.1 1,215.2 248.9 144.6 83.9 308.82 0.3x 1.2x The New York Times Company NYT 12.84 150.3 669.4 414.6 1,587.7 232.1 152.8 64.1 1,929.87 1.2x 8.3x Time Inc. TIME 22.59 109.0 1,376.0 325.0 3,352.0 510.0 352.0 8.0 2,461.63 0.7x 4.8x Shares LTM LTM LTM LTM Sales EBITDA Company Ticker Stock Price Outstanding Debt Cash Sales EBITDA EBIT Earnings Market Cap Multiple Multiple Ever-Glory International Group, Inc. EVK $6.19 14.8 $55.4 $25.0 $422.3 $27.0 $20.8 $12.8 $91.55 0.2x 3.4x G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. GIII 79.35 22.4 71.2 21.5 1,931.7 152.4 135.9 80.2 1,776.25 0.9x 11.7x Oxford Industries Inc. OXM 61.25 16.5 108.5 6.4 951.8 121.9 85.3 45.9 1,008.73 1.1x 8.3x Perry Ellis International Inc. PERY 20.45 15.7 172.5 49.2 899.0 34.7 21.3 (25.1) 321.62 0.4x 9.3x PVH Corp. PVH 114.35 82.4 3,907.4 461.1 8,250.7 1,202.2 948.9 321.0 9,421.64 1.1x 7.8x V.F. Corporation VFC 67.68 431.1 2,083.5 496.5 11,993.4 2,047.8 1,775.2 1,293.1 29,176.92 2.4x 14.2x
  • 34. 6. MediaCo Comparable Transaction Analysis Comparable Company Analysis - Comparable Transactions ($ in millions) Announced Target EV / EV / EBITDA Transaction Date Enterprise Value Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA Margin Transaction 1 2014 $972 NA 11.7x NA $83 NA Transaction 2 2014 690 NA NA NA NA NA Transaction 3 2014 511 1.5x 8.9x $334 58 17.2% Transaction 4 2014 350 NA NA NA NA NA Transaction 5 2014 25 0.2x 6.9x 139 4 2.6% Transaction 6 2014 6 0.5x 3.5x 13 2 14.2% Transaction 7 2013 105 0.8x 8.9x 140 12 8.4% Transaction 8 2013 76 1.9x NA 41 NA NA Transaction 9 2013 82 0.5x 3.0x 162 27 16.7% Transaction 10 2013 252 1.1x NA 239 NA NA Transaction 11 2013 3 0.3x NA 12 NA NA Transaction 12 2013 829 2.1x 8.0x 386 103 26.7% Transaction 13 2013 201 NA NA NA NA NA Transaction 14 2013 355 2.1x 11.3x 171 31 18.4% Transaction 15 2013 108 NA 17.0x NA 6 NA Transaction 16 2013 214 2.7x NA 80 NA NA Transaction 17 2012 13 0.3x 8.7x 42 1 3.5% Transaction 18 2012 86 1.0x 5.2x 85 16 19.5% Transaction 19 2012 15 0.4x 8.6x 41 2 4.3% Min $3 0.2x 3.0x Max 972 2.7x 17.0x Median 108 0.9x 8.6x Mean 258 1.1x 8.5x
  • 35. 7. ApparelCo & FashionCo Comparable Transaction Analysis Comparable Company Analysis - Comparable Transactions ($ in millions) Announced Target EV / EV / EBITDA Transaction Date Enterprise Value Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA Margin Transaction 1 2014 $359 0.6x NA $633 NA NA Transaction 2 2014 189 NA 13.0x NA $15 NA Transaction 3 2013 2,201 0.6x 9.8x 3,848 226 5.9% Transaction 4 2013 1,486 1.4x 11.1x 1,031 134 13.0% Transaction 5 2013 615 2.2x 9.6x 285 64 22.5% Transaction 6 2013 253 1.3x 13.2x 194 19 9.9% Transaction 7 2013 2,274 0.9x 8.0x 2,503 285 11.4% Transaction 8 2013 567 1.0x 13.1x 562 43 7.7% Transaction 9 2013 143 1.9x 13.5x 74 11 14.3% Transaction 10 2013 1,000 1.1x 9.8x 921 102 11.0% Transaction 11 2013 628 1.3x 7.2x 481 87 18.1% Transaction 12 2013 18 0.4x 9.8x 46 2 4.0% Transaction 13 2013 548 0.7x 8.7x 742 63 8.5% Transaction 14 2012 2,847 1.2x 9.9x 2,406 288 12.0% Transaction 15 2012 88 0.4x 5.2x 200 17 8.5% Transaction 16 2012 852 0.4x 10.2x 1,969 84 4.3% Transaction 17 2012 1,809 0.5x 8.4x 3,505 216 6.2% Transaction 18 2012 246 0.5x 10.6x 478 23 4.9% Transaction 19 2012 553 4.4x 10.9x 125 51 40.5% Transaction 20 2012 58 0.4x 5.5x 139 11 7.6% Transaction 21 2011 60 0.6x 10.6x 103 6 5.5% Transaction 22 2011 60 0.6x 10.6x 103 6 5.5% Transaction 23 2011 357 0.3x NA 1,144 NA NA Min $18 0.3x 5.2x Max 2,847 4.4x 13.5x Median 548 0.7x 9.9x Mean 748 1.0x 9.9x

Editor's Notes

  1. Weaknesses: 90% of revenues come from sales of periodicals- Revenue is projected to go down
  2. MediaCo Produce quality consumer product reviews Long, established company Strong position in their niche market (45-65 years old) ApparelCo High quality and fashionable apparel Good reputation (simple and timeless clothing) Young target audience that MediaCo wants (18-35 years old) Revenue growth in line with comparable companies William Masterson, head of unit, has a passion for the fashion industry Due their its strong fashionable brand, it is less likely to be impacted by economic downturns FashionCo Carried by most major apparel retailers throughout the country Affordability of its products
  3. MediaCo Non-diversified revenue stream: 90% comes from the sales of periodicals Production portion of the company is not making enough profit ApparelCo Few synergies with MediaCo Lower profit margins due to higher SG&A expenses Sold in a limited number of retail outlets (limited distribution channels) Vulnerable to changes in weather during seasons FashionCo Lack of owners interest in the fashion industry Products are not considered to be trendy
  4. MediaCo Capturing new customers under the age of 45 Strengthening brands through ventures in the fashion industry Divestiture of ApparelCo: we can use sale money to buy media content ApparelCo Expected to have a faster growth than MediaCo in coming years Economies of scale: Reduction of SG&A cost up to 2% of revenue if greater scale is achieved Advertising through MediaCo channels FashionCo Increase sales percentage in retail and outlet points of sale Potential sale of company Additional notes: - If FashionCo is acquired, ParentCon will gain greater Wall Street Analyst coverage, and an increase in its trading multiple - If FashionCo is acquired, there will be a reduction of 3.5% in SG&A expense
  5. No growth Due to probably digital substitution of printed periodicals MediaCo Industry expected to have little to no revenue growth for the foreseeable future ApparelCo Possible divesture from ParentCo due to request of Activist Capital Possible request from activist hedge funds for a seat in the board of directors and push for sale Agency problem due to opposing views about the divesture between owners and upper management FashionCo Lack of customer interest due to unfashionable products Economic downturn can impact demand Additional notes: If ApparelCo is not sold, Activist Capital will push for management replacement and sale of ParentCo
  6. Many substitutes: Print, internet, tv