2. Summary
Rating: Hold
Target Price $ 38-$42
Current Price $ 40.95
Current & Forecast Metrics
Current P/E 19.71
P/E Range 20-22
Forecast P/E 21
Div Yield 1.4%
Market Cap 4.22B
EPS $1.79
Forecast EPS $3.6
Adjusted Beta .87
• Largest Pet Specialty One-Stop Shop
• High quality differentiation strategy
• Strategy shift from location expansion
to merchandising and service growth
3. Company
Description
Founded in 1986, based in Phoenix, AZ
• Operate 1,172 stores (2010)
• Over 10,000 products
• Business Segments
Training
Grooming
Boarding
Veterinary (Banfield)
• Petsmart’s Charity
“We want to be a part of the solution not a part of the problem. “
-- Michael Manson
4. $0.0
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
1994 1999 2004 2009
Industry Spending (bil)
• Sector: Consumer Discretionary
• Average annual growth for the industry is 6.5%
• Growth Expectations
New store unit growth 2-3%
Comparable store sales 2-4%
• Revenue Drivers
Consumer spending
Pet ownership
Humanization of pets
Risks
Industry
Spending
Valuation
Industry
Company
Overview
Financial
Analysis
6. • 14% total market share
• Exclusive product contracts
Martha Stewart
GNC
• Competitors
Big box retailers (WalMart)
Grocery stores
Petco
Valuation
Industry
Company
Overview
Financial
Analysis
14%
46%
26%
10%
4%
Total Market Share
PetSmart
Mass
Grocery
Other Pet Specialty
Customer
Competitive
Positioning
Net Sales and
Service Sales
7. Primary Attributes PetSmart Mass &
Grocery
Independent Other Pet
Specialty
Broad Assortment X X
Engaged In-Store
Experience With Your
Pet
X
Knowledgeable
Associates
X X
Customer Loyalty
Program
X X X
Veterinary Services X
Grooming Services X X X
Boarding and Day Camp
Services
X X
Training Services X X
Trip Consolidation X
Valuation
Industry
Company
Overview
Financial
Analysis
Customer
Competitive
Positioning
Net Sales and
Service Sales
12. `
15%
85%
Grooming & Boarding Services
PetSmart
Mass
• $3.4 Billion spent in 2009
Valuation
Industry
Company
Overview
Financial
Analysis
Customer
Competitive
Positioning
Net Sales and
Service Sales
16. Historically capital expenditures 4.5%-6.5% of sales
Approximately $300m
8% - 9% historical store growth
Looking forward capital expenditures 2.1% of sales
Approximately $120-$130m
2% - 3% new store growth
Focused on remodeling and expanding current stores
Valuation
Industry
Company
Overview
Financial
Analysis
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
New Store Openings
38
100
EarningsCapital
Expenditures
Cash Flow
17. • Steady revenue stream
2010 revenues $5.6b up from $5.3b in 2009
(5.5% increase)
Projected to increase 7-8% annually
• Projected earnings
Current EPS: $1.59
5 year forecast: $3.36
55% upside
Valuation
Industry
Company
Overview
Financial
Analysis
EarningsCapital
Expenditures
Cash Flow
$-
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Net income
Earning Per Share
18. Cash flow expected to increase ~ $500m
• Decreased spending on capital expenditures
• Increased store efficiencies
• Expanding sales growth
Valuation
Industry
Company
Overview
Financial
Analysis
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Operating Cash Flows
Capital Expenditure
Free cash flow
% of Operating CF
EarningsCapital
Expenditures
Cash Flow
19. • Fair Value
Current Price: $40.95 (Mar. 31, 2011)
Target Price: $38-$42 per share
• Used three valuation models
Free cash flow to the firm
Enterprise value multiple
Three-Stage dividend discount
Valuation
Industry
Company
Overview
Financial
Analysis
FCFM EV/EBITDAInvestment
Summary
DDM
22. • Initial dividend $.08 in 2005; rose to $.33 in
2009
• Expected growth:
22% for 5 years
16% until 2019
5.5% long term
• Target Price: $36.34
$-
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Dividends Per Share
FCFM EV/EBITDAInvestment
Summary
DDM
Valuation
Industry
Company
Overview
Financial
Analysis
23. • Significant change in business model
Slower unit growth
Improved cash flows
Expanding products and services
Higher profit margins
Executive
Summary
Rating: Hold
Target Price $ 38-$42
Current Price $ 40.95
24. Income
Statement
Stmt of Cash
Flow
Balance Sheet Correlation
CLAYM
WACC
DCFM
FCFF
Unemployment
Rate
Consumer
Spending
New Opening
Stores
Net Sales
Trend
Exclusive
Product
Total owned
Pets
Pet Ownership
Product
Margin
Management
Industry
Spending
Humanization
Homes with
Pets
Qualification
Service marginNet Sales
Competitive
Positioning
Revenue
Breakdown
Operating CFs
Risks
Customers
Sales/Sq.Ft
US Inflation
Financials & Valuations Data & Quantitive Company Related
Net Income
Breakdown
Net Sales
Breakdown
Earning per
share
Service sales
forecast
Dividends per
share
40. Pet Ownership
Pet ownership is down*
Decreased home ownership
High Unemployment
Empty Nesters
62% of U.S. households own a pet*
52% of adults age 62 and older own pets *
58% own more than two pets
10% own six pets or more
People age 65 and over
Increasing Discretionary income **
5.8% increase in Real Median Income (2009)**
21% estimated growth in Animal Care and Services between 2008-2018.***
*The APPA’s 2009/2010 National Pet Owner Survey
** “Income, Poverty, and Health Coverage in the United States”, U.S. Census Bureau’s 2009
***2010-2011 Occupational Outlook Handbook, Animal Care and Service Workers section
47. Product Margin
Classification Available Example Margin (as a multiple)
1 Grocery Brand Anywhere Pedigree 1
2 Bridge Brand Anywhere Iams 1.4
3 Premium
Pet Specialty
Stores Science Diet 1.8
4 Rx
PetSmart
Exclusive Royal Canin 1.8
5 Super Premium Pet Specialty Blue Buffalo 2.1
48. Management
Qualifications
Executive Chairman Philip L. Francis
CEO PetSmart - 1998 to 2009
CEO J. Sainsbury plc. subsidiary, Shaw’s Supermarkets
VP of Roundy’s (wholesale grocery distribution company)
CEO Robert F. Moran
PetSmart’s COO
President of North American PetSmart store operations
President Toys ‘R’ Us, Ltd., Canada
CEO of Sears de Mexico
CFO of Galerias Preciados, a Spanish department store chain.
CFO Chip Molloy
CFO of Retail Stores Circuit City, Inc
Corporate planning at Capital One Financial
Private equity with AGL Capital Investments
Consulting with Deloitte Consulting.
49. Management
Interview with Co-Founder Michael Manson
PetSmart empowers employees:
Store managers given the responsibility and authority to make changes
PetSmart provides training classes for associates
CEO Francis and Mr. Moran entered management during financial distress
PetSmart approaching failure
Stock price had plummeted
Significant changes required for recovery
Management returned PetSmart to
profitability
50. Exclusive Products
Authority Brand
Rx Pet Food
Only retailer to offer Rx pet food because of veterinary restrictions.
Exclusive Products
Exclusive Relationships
Martha Stewart PETS Collection
GNC – Dietary Pet Supplements
GNC Executive Vice President Tom Dowd, “the new pet vitamins represent a true
consumer-driven innovation.”
Fisher-Price Pet Toys
51. Safety
Child food and toy standards used
Pet Safety Products:
Pet harnesses,
Portable carriers,
Belt systems for vehicle
transportation
Holistic pet health
Organic food
Supplements
Humanization
Humanization is: Treating pets as family members legally, emotionally, financially
88% of pets are considered family.
Legal Rights
25% of pet owners legally provide for pets
(2007)
“Pet Protection Agreement”
“Pet Trust”
Last Will and Testament
Tax Breaks proposed in HAPPY Act
(The Humanity and Pets Partnered Through the Years Act)
Medical Rights
AVMA lobbying Congress for:
Pre-Tax Pet Benefits
Pets allowed on employer benefits
52. Consumer Spending
Spending Up
Consumers are not cutting back on pet spending
Pet product retailers are top retail industry performers
Growing Market
6.5% annual growth from 1994 to 2010
Since 2007,
Pet spending growth has slowed about 1% to 2% annually
Industry is still growing at 5% year over year
Decreased Spending Power
Increased pet food costs in 2008
56. Customers
% of PetSmart
Customers
% of Total Sales
Average Transactions
Per Year
Average Annual Spend
per Customer
PetPerks Members
Mart
40%
5%
1.2
$18
36%
Smart
50%
45%
4.1*
$136
57%
Smart with
Heart
10%
50%
17.1
$757
79%
59. Sales per Square Foot
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Net Sales Per Sq/Ft $ 206.04 $ 208.16 $ 217.71 $ 229.61 $ 242.53 $ 255.74
Net Income per
sq/ft
$ 7.66 $ 6.80 $ 7.86 $ 9.08 $ 10.71 $ 12.48
Sales per store $ 4,644.38 $ 4,794.11 $ 4,975.99 $ 5,224.01 $ 5,515.47 $ 5,825.78
60. Competitive
Positioning
Primary Attributes PetSmart Mass &
Grocery
Independent Other Pet
Specialty
Broad Assortment X X
Engaged In-Store
Experience With Your
Pet
X
Knowledgeable
Associates
X X
Customer Loyalty
Program
X X X
Veterinary Services X
Grooming Services X X X
Boarding and Day Camp
Services
X X
Training Services X X
Trip Consolidation X
We want to be part of the solution not the part of the problem, Michael Manson
MENTION WHERE THE COMPANY IS AND WHERE ITS GOING
RELOCATE SMART WITH HEART TO THE RIGHT, ADD ARROWS TO SHOW MOVEMENT
YANG, add some arrroooowss
MAKE MORE CLEAR. THIS IS PETSMARTS MARKET SHARE
PLACE TO TALK ABOUT WHERE THE COMPANY IS AND WHERE ITS GOING. SHOW OPERATING PROFIT OVER TIME. PERCENT OF OPERATING PROFITS. MAKE SERVICES RED
The reason petsmart is going to focus on increasing their service sales is becuz ss , such as grooming training and boarding carry lower overhead costs and much higher margin than the merchandise sales. As shown in the chart.
By cossing selling services, petsmart is able to capture higher gross margin when customer shift from pet product to services.
Unit percentage growth why its important change in business
% INCREASE BETWEEN THE TWO YEARS
Talk about how services are higher margin. Insert slide that bridges services and cash flows.percentage of operating margins CHANGE GRAPH TO INCLUDE CASH FROM OPERATIONS, CAP EX, AND FREE CASH FLOW
FIX ORDER OF SLIDES IN LIST.
DON’T LEAD WITH INVESTORS NUMBERS. Make cost of debt after tax cost
Think about what the multiple means. Mention sensitivity. Make sure the 10 makes sense
Mention repositioning, significant change in business model. Slower unit growth.improved cash flow.