The document projects energy demand for MECON households in Vietnam under business-as-usual (BAU), high energy efficiency (HEE), and moderate energy efficiency (MEE) scenarios using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model. Total energy consumption is projected to decrease from 724 ktoe in 2014 to 691 ktoe in 2030 for BAU. Both HEE and MEE scenarios show reductions compared to BAU, with MEE at 629 ktoe and HEE at 569 ktoe. Key findings include that the cooling sector provides the largest savings potential, followed by cooking and lighting. Lighting offers the highest energy savings rate at 26.4% by

1. Energy demand projection for MECON group:
Case of Vietnam
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting
“New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
By
Associate Prof. Dr. Pham Hoang Luong
Dr. Nguyen Thi Mai Anh
Dr. Do Tien Minh
International Dissemination Workshop
17 September 2015, Bangkok
Funded by UK Research Councils’ Energy Program, the department for International Development (DFID)
and the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC), and managed by the Engineering and
Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)

2. CONTENTS
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting
“New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
• MECON energy demand projection (BAU,
HEE, MEE)
• Cost – benefit analysis
• Conclusions and recommendations

3. LEAP STRUCTURE FOR MECON
Vietnam MECON Population
Amount of MECON
household
Household
income/size
Amount of energy devices
in MECON household
Device capacity
Device usage hours
Device efficiency
Device saturation level Final energy consumption
of MECON in Vietnam

4. EQUIPMENT STRUCTURE
Lighting
Fluorescent
Incandescent
Compact
fluorescent
LED
Cooking
Electric cooking
stove
Rice cooker
Microwave oven
Cleaning
Washing machine
Vacuum cleaner
Entertainment
TV (CRT)
TV (LCD)
VDO
Radio
Computer
Hifi system
Mobile phone
Cooling
AC
Refrigerator
Fan
Heating
Electric kettle
Electric
Water heater
Solar water heater
Electric heater
Other
Electric iron
Water pump

5. VIETNAMESE MECON SIZE
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting
“New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
Year
Total Population
(Million ppl)
Percent share of
MECON population
Number of MECON
Population (Million ppl)
Number of MECON HH
(Million HH)
2011 87.84 48.11 967.42 255.26
2012 88.76 48.32 972.21 256.52
2013 89.69 48.44 975.12 257.29
2014 90.63 48.49 976.53 257.66
2015 91.58 48.46 976.44 257.64
2016 92.54 48.36 974.86 257.22
2017 93.51 48.18 971.77 256.40
2018 94.48 47.93 967.18 255.19
2019 95.47 47.60 961.08 253.58
2020 96.47 47.20 953.47 251.57
2021 97.48 46.73 944.34 249.17
2022 98.50 46.18 933.71 246.36
2023 99.53 45.55 921.56 243.15
2024 100.58 44.86 907.89 239.55
2025 101.63 44.08 892.70 235.54
2026 102.69 43.24 875.98 231.13
2027 103.77 42.32 857.75 226.32
2028 104.85 41.32 837.98 221.10
2029 105.95 40.25 816.68 215.48
2030 107.06 39.11 793.86 209.46

6. 0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Actual
Projection
SHARE OF VIETNAMESE MECON GROUP
Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Percent
share of
MECON
population
48.44 48.49 48.46 48.36 48.18 47.93 47.60 47.20 46.73 46.18 45.55 44.86 44.08 43.24 42.32 41.32 40.25 39.11
39.11%
48.49%
19.61%

7. MECON ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION FOR BAU SCENARIO
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting
“New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion

8. KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting
“New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
HEE Scenario
• Assumes 100% penetration of efficient
appliances by 2030
• The share of efficient appliances will
increase gradually from the current level
to reach 100% by 2030.
• Incandescent, Fluorescent, LCD will be
phased out 100% by LED
• Other equipment like AC, refrigerator,
kettle, water heater, electric winter
heater, washing marchine, electric cooking
stove, rice cooker, microwave... Traditional
technologies will be replaced by efficient
ones
MEE Scenario
• Assumes a moderate penetration of
efficient appliances in 2030.
• The appropriate share of efficient
appliances for each energy equipment -
energy efficiency policies
• Incandescent – replaced 60% by
fluorescent; 30% by CFL and 10% by LED
• Fluorescent – replaced 25% by CFL; 15%
by LED
• CFL – replaced 30% by LED
• Other appliances – replaced 50%-70% by
efficient technologies

9. -
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
High EE scenario
MECON BAU scenario
Medium EE Scenario
569.9
ktoe
691
629.9 121 – 17.5%
COMPARING MECON ENERGY DEMAND
BAU, HEE AND MEE SCENARIOS
724
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting
“New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion

10. Appliance Capital cost (USD) Life cycle cost
(USD) Equation (1)
Lifetime
(years)
Incandescent light bulb 0.47 6.26 2
Fluorescent light bulb (FLO) 0.95 13.37 3
CFL 1.90 10.38 6
LED 4.50 7.61 6
Difference in LCC of LED FLO 27.97
Rice cooker (EE) 55.00 236.25 10
Rice cooker (Existing) 38.00 263.21 10
Difference in EE and existing rice cooker
26.96
AC (EE) 570.00 1,464.72 15
AC (Existing) 410.00 1,602.95 15
Difference in EE AC & existing 138.23
Refrigerator (EE) 214.00 527.70 15
Refrigerator (Exist) 180.00 544.93 15
Difference in EE fridge & existing)
17.23
Electric fan (EE) 25.00 89.19 10
Electric fan (Existing) 19.00 99.26 10
Difference in fan (EE) and (existing) 10.07
Electric water heater (EE) 114.00 252.09 10
Electric water heater (Existing) 95.00 267.40 10
Difference in water heater (EE) & (existing)
15.31

11. 0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
1400.00
1600.00
1800.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Inefficient AC
Efficient AC
138.24 - 9%
USD
USD
Cummulative life-cycle cost of AC and Fridge
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting
“New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Inefficient fridge
Efficient Fridge
17.24 USD

12. USD
Cummulative life-cycle cost of AC and Fridge
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
1 2 3 4 5 6
Incandescent LED CFL
7.61 USD
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting
“New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
9.91 – 56.5% USD
7.15 USD
40.8%
17.53 USD

13. • MECON group contribute large energy consumption to the whole
country demand
• Total energy consumption of MECON group decrease from 724.8
Ktoe in 2014 to 691.0 Ktoe in 2030 (4.7%).
• The reduction share of MECON households (48.49% in 2014 to
39.11% in 2030)
• The substitution of higher energy efficient appliances to the
conventional ones.
• In both scenarios (MEE and HEE), the total energy consumption is
less than BAU scenario. Total energy consumption of MEE and HEE
will be reduced by 629.9 Ktoe and 569.9 Ktoe respectively and
lower than it in BAU 61 Ktoe (8.8%) and 121.1 Ktoe (17.5%).
Some Key findings and Conclusions
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting
“New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion

14. • In both scenarios (MEE and HEE), the total energy
consumption is less than BAU scenario. Total energy
consumption of MEE and HEE will be reduced by 629.9 Ktoe
and 569.9 Ktoe respectively and lower than it in BAU 61 Ktoe
(8.8%) and 121.1 Ktoe (17.5%).
• Explained by the penetration of higher energy efficient
technologies
• The substitution of these technologies for the conventional
ones.
• Cooling sector makes the most significant saving in MEE
and HEE in comparing to others. Cooking is the second
and the third is lighting.
Some Key findings and Conclusions
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting
“New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion

15. • Cooling sector makes the most significant saving in MEE and HEE in
comparing to others. Cooking is the second and the third is lighting.
• In term of energy saving rate, lighting ranks the first, the
second are heating and cooking and the last is cooling. In year
2030, energy saving of HEE for lighting, heating, cooking and
cooling will be 26.4%; 19.5%; 19.2% and 15.6% respectively.
• Replacement of efficient technologies for conventional ones
for all appliances are cost-benefit despite of higher
investment of the efficient ones.
• So in short term, Vietnamese government should focus on
energy saving in lighting.
• For medium or long term the focus will be on cooking, heating
and cooling.
Some Key findings and Conclusions
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting
“New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion

16. THANK YOU FOR
YOUR ATTENTION!!!

17. Some Key findings and Conclusions
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting
“New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
