This document summarizes a presentation given by Mahmoud Mohieldin, Senior Vice President of the World Bank Group, at the SDG Summer School in Geneva on July 10, 2018. The presentation addresses several major global megatrends and challenges, including demographic shifts, urbanization, climate change, technological disruption, fragility and violence, and shifts in the global economy. For each trend, data and statistics are presented to illustrate key challenges. The presentation then discusses the transition from the Millennium Development Goals to the Sustainable Development Goals, highlighting lessons learned. Areas for countries to unlock their potential to achieve the SDGs are identified, including growth for poverty reduction, improving data availability, financing sustainable development, and harness

1. SDG Summer School
Geneva Tsinghua Initiative for SDGs
University of Geneva
Sustainable
Development Goals and
the WBG
“Leave No One Behind”
Mahmoud Mohieldin
Senior Vice President
World Bank Group
July 10, 2018
@wbg2030
worldbank.org/sdgs
0

2. Mega Trends and Challenges
1

3. Addressing Global Megatrends &
Challenges
Fragility and violence
Shifts in the global economy
Urbanization
Demographic transitions
Debate about globalization
Technological disruptions
Climate and resources
Commodity cycles
2

4. Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2012
 High fertility
rate, low life
expectancy
 Declining
fertility rate,
increasing life
expectancy
 Fertility rate
approaching
replacement
rate,
increased life
expectancy
 Low fertility
rate, high life
expectancy
Demographic shifts
The world can be divided into four major demographic
groupsMost of the global population lives in early- and late-dividend countries and while 78
percent of global growth was from late- and post-dividend countries, 90 percent of global
poverty is in pre- and early-dividend countries
* World Bank Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016
Share of global GDP growth and poverty,
2000-14 (percent)
3

5. Demographic Groups Key Challenges
Pre-Dividend countries Lagging in human development outcomes
Early-Dividend countries
Job creation for rapidly growing share of working-
age people, mostly youth
Late-Dividend countries
Populations beginning to age; potential slowdown in
growth of labor supply
Post-Dividend countries Adapting to aging to maintain living standards
Countries at all stages of development can harness demographic transitions as a development opportunity
Demographic shifts
Key challenges for each group
4

6. Source: World Bank, 2017
Urbanization
96% of increase in developing country population
between now and 2030 will be in urban areas
Proportion of population living in urban areas, 1960-2011
5

7. Source: World Bank, 2017
Urbanization
If urbanization is not managed properly, slums emerge
Proportion of urban population living in slums, 1990-2010
6

8. Source: Building Resilience report, World Bank, 2014
Losses due to disasters worldwide (1980–2012) Number of disasters worldwide (1980–2012)
Climate change and resources:
The total number of disasters and losses has been rising,
1980–2012Global disaster losses from 1980–2012
7

9. Source: Building Resilience report, World Bank, 2014
Climate change and resources:
Process of integrating climate
resilience into development Index of risk preparation across countries
8

10. Commodity price indexes, annual
Commodity cycles:
Source: Commodity Markets Outlook, World Bank, 2017
9

11. The rate of advancement is unprecedented
Source: GSMA Intelligence (2017), World Bank – World Development Indicator (2017)
Technological disruption:
10

12. Half of the world’s population is not benefiting from the digital
economy
Source: GSMA Intelligence (2017), World Bank – World Development Indicator (2017)
See Annex, pp20-24 for additional data on the emerging digital divide and trends in the digital sector
Technological disruption:
Source: Atul Mehta, World Bank Group, 2017
11

13. Technological Disruption:
Not just any digital connectivity will do
Voice
Simple
Data
Broadband Faster
Broadband
5G
IOT
1 Peak data rate for GSM/GPRS, latest Evolved EDGE has peak DL data rates capable of up to 1.2 Mbps; 2 Peak data rate for HSPA+ DL 3-carrier CA; HSPA+
specification includes additional potential CA+ use of multiple antennas, but no announcements to date; 3 Peak data rate for LTE Advanced Cat 6 with 20 + 20 MHz DL
CA; LTE specification includes additional potential CA + Additional use of multiple antennas, but no announcements to date
Source: Disruptive Tech Forum, World Bank, 2017
12

14. Source: World Bank, 2017
Fragility and violence:
Number of people killed by violent conflict Number of conflicts, by type
Map of terror attacks in 2016
Source: Ian Bremmer, 2017
Source: World Bank, 2017
Violent deaths and conflicts in Africa
Source: World Bank Regional Update on Africa, 2017
Violent conflict is increasing and becoming more complex
13

15. Refugees and forced displacement
Fragility and violence:
A threefold crisis: The global forcibly displaced population
The crisis primarily affects the developing world
Source: Forcibly Displaced, World Bank, 2017
14

16. Source: Forcibly Displaced, World Bank, 2017
Refugees and forced displacement
Fragility and violence:
The crisis primarily affects the developing world
15

17. Migration
Fragility and violence
Refugees are only a small share of people on the move
16

18. Shifts and changes in the global economy
Growth is picking up but is still lower than the pre-crisis averag
Source: World Economic Outlook and Sean Nolan, 2017
Real GDP Growth, 2013-2018
(Percent, PPPGDP weighted averages)
17

19. Public Debt, 2007-2017
(Percent of GDP, weighted averages)
Source: World Economic Outlook and Sean Nolan, 2017
Shifts and changes in the global
economy
Public debt burdens are rising and growth of international
trade is slowing
Import Volume, Goods and Services, 2000-2016
(Constant prices, Index 2000=100)
18

20. Global Inequality, 1988-2013
Inequality within countries is rising
Source World Bank 2017 and Sean Nolan, 2017
19

21. Source: Adapted from Branko Milanovic and Christoph Lakner, 2013
Relative gain in real per capita income by global income level, 1988-2008
Although inequality is rising within
countries, it is declining across the
global population
The largest
negative effect is
on the lower and
middle classes in
developed
economies
20

22. The share of US pre-tax income accruing to the bottom 50
percent and top one percent of income earners, 1962-2014
Inequality within countries is rising
USA – current account % GDP USA – Employment in manufacturing –
the role of technology
Blaming international trade for inequality is a
mistake
Source: Braga, 2017
21

23. Is globalization retrenching?
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Trade Capital Information People
Global Gross Financial Flows, 1990-2016 (percent of
world GDP)
Depth of Globalization: Change vs 2005
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Merchandise Trade % of GDP FDI Flows % of Investment
Trade and FDI depth through 2016
Source: Braga, 2017
Source: Ghemawat, 2017 Source: Ghemawat, 2017
22

24. Reflections on the new global economy:
multipolarity
The world’s economic center of gravity, 1980–
2016, in black, at three-year intervals
Evolution of the earth’s economic center of
gravity: 1 CE to 2025
1980
1989
1998
2007
2016
2049
Source: Danny Quah, 2011 Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2012
23

25. The 2030 Agenda and the
Sustainable Development Goals
24

26. Some Key Areas for Countries
to Unlock their Potential
• Growth for poverty reduction
• Improving data availability
• Opening up financing for sustainable development
• Implementation & Digital Disruption
• WBG Support
China: Harnessing STI to achieve SDGs

27. An Opportunity for Transformation:
From MDGs to SDGs
The global development agendas serve as a compass and guide for countries to determine their national
development path
MDGs
(2000-2015)
SDGs
(2016-2030)
Goals 8 17
Targets 21 169
Indicators 60 ~231
Priority Areas Human Development Holistic: Economic, Social, Environmental
Scope Developing Countries Universal
26

28. An Opportunity for Transformation:
Lessons learned from the field
• Improve coordination and ensure the timeliness and
effectiveness of policy instruments
• Localize implementation and prioritize engagement of
communities and community mobilization
• Increase efficient allocation of resources
• Recognize and identify interrelatedness of
development goals at the onset
• Ensure strong government involvement
• Promote quality data
• Increase cross-institutional collaboration
• Bridge the humanitarian and development agendas
Based on report: “Transitioning from the MDGs to the SDGs” jointly written by the World Bank Group and the UN Development Programme
27

29. GROWTH FOR POVERTY REDUCTION
FIVE COMMON CHARACTERISTICS
28

30. DATA AND FINANCE ARE KEY COMPONENTS OF SDG
IMPLEMENTATION
Data and
knowledge
gaps
Financing
29

31. Data is crucial to understanding how
trends are shifting
30

32. “DATA IS THE NEW OIL”
31

33. UNTIL THERE IS A BUSINESS MODEL FOR DATA, IT
WILL NOT BE USED EFFICIENTLY
32

34. The key
components
of financing
sustainable
developmen
t
Source: World Bank Group, 2015
33

35. PUBLIC & CONCESSIONAL FINANCING,
INCLUDING SUB-SOVEREIGN
• Public finance (incl. national development banks and
domestic SWF)
• MDBs and DFIs
COMMERCIAL
FINANCING
PUBLIC AND CONCESSIONAL
RESOURCES FOR RISK
INSTRUMENTS
& CREDIT ENHANCEMENTS
• Guarantees
• First Loss
UPSTREAM REFORMS
& MARKET FAILURES
• Country and Sector Policies
• Regulations and Pricing
• Institutions and Capacity
3
4
2
Financing sustainable development
Private sector engagement needs to increase
Can commercial financing be cost-
effectively mobilized for sustainable
investment? If not…
Can upstream reforms be
put in place to address
market failures? If not…
Can risk instruments & credit
enhancements cost-effectively
cover remaining risks? If not…
Can development
objectives be resolved with
scarce public financing?
1
34

36. The SDGs open up US$12 trillion of market opportunities in four
economic opportunities:
• These economic systems represent around 60 percent of the real
economy and are critical to meeting the SDGs.
• To capture these opportunities in full, businesses need to pursue social
and environmental sustainability as avidly as they pursue market share
and shareholder value.
• If a critical mass of companies joins us in doing this now, they will
become an unstoppable force.
• If they don’t, the costs and uncertainty of unsustainable development
could swell until there is no viable world in which to do business.
Source: Better Business Better World Report, January 2017
Financing sustainable development
Opportunities for the private sector
35

37. Financing sustainable development:
“Digitization” is disrupting every part of financial services
36
Source: World Bank Group, 2017 36

38. Source: FSB, Financial Stability Implications of FinTech, July 2017
Financing sustainable development:
Fintech will become critical
37
37

39. How can the private sector get involved?
$24.4 trillion
in low-yield
government
securities
More than
$10 trillion
invested in
negative
interest rate
bonds
$8 trillion
sitting in
cash
How much is out there?
38

40. Several business themes provide major opportunities in
a world economy heading for the SDGs
39

41. The practice of sustainable development
INVEST IN PEOPLE INVEST IN INCLUSIVE GROWTH INVEST IN
RESILIENCE
•Fragility &
Conflict
•Climate and
weather shocks
•Pandemics
Sources: World Bank Group, 2017
•Early childhood
development
•Gender equality
•Skills for jobs
•Equal
opportunities
•Infrastructure
•Roads
•Energy
•Sustainable
•Greening growth
•Water
management
•Private sector
•Job creation
Achieve the twin goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared
prosperity
40

42. Invest in inclusive growth:
Each industrial revolution shifts the manufacturing
opportunities and patterns of specialization
Industrial revolutions and shifts in
manufacturing specialization, 1784–present
Source: © Shutterstock. Used with permission; further permission required for reuse.
Source: Trouble in the Making? The future of manufacturing-led development, World Bank, 2017
Three “C”s determine
the feasibility of
success in export-led
manufacturing:
• Competitiveness
• Capabilities
• Connectedness
The practice of sustainable
development
41

43. Source: Trouble in the Making? The future of manufacturing-led development, World Bank, 2017
42
The practice of sustainable development

44. Science, Technology and
Innovation
43

45. 44
Exponential changes in IT
are disrupting industries &
creating new opportunities
Drones
Artificial
Intelligence
B
Le
Big Data
&
Analytic
s
Internet
of Things
Platform
Revolution
Applica
• Fi
P2
• Re
• Id
• Sm
• Sh
m
• Cr
• Go
• Su
• Pr
Pr
• La
Cloud
Computing
Robotics
Quantum
Computing
Cost Eff
Ro

46. 45
Digital solutions are transforming the delivery of
products and services
Problems confronted by traditional
methods
Digital solutions
Service
delivery
Health
Doctor/hospital-centric model is difficult/slow
to scale
Digital solutions are transforming
access/affordability and, together with AI, showing
growing potential for diagnosis & preventative care
SMEs
Small/informal enterprises lack access to
markets/credit
Accelerating access to markets/credit (Taobao
serves over 4.5 million SMEs in China)
Agribusiness
Isolated farmers work in a more inefficient
manner, with variability in yields
Helps farmers improve yield/connect with supply
chains (mKrishi increased farmer profitability by
45% in India)
Power
Rural populations are often left without
electricity due to limited grid coverage
Off-grid solutions linked to e-payments give access
to remote populations (50M users so far, out of 1.2B
lacking access)
Government
Tax
Informality and lack of enforcement lead to
significant tax avoidance and leakage
Digital payments allow govts to increase tax
revenue
Government
payments
Corruption and overpayment (ie. Ghost
workers, duplicate social transfer recipients)
Digital ID and payments ensures direct transfer of
payments to confirmed recipients

47. Digital Connectivity is fundamental to
achieving the SDGs
Source: International Finance Corporation
46

48. 47
The growing
mobile
industry has a
direct impact
on the SDGs
34

49. 48
However, digitization is still nascent in most emerging
markets
4 billion people are currently not participating in the digital economy

50. 49
And digital disruption will impact countries differently
and could exacerbate global inequality

51. 50
WBG IS EMBARKING ON AN AMBITIOUS JOURNEY TO
HARNESS STI IN ALL SECTORS AND CLIENT COUNTRIES BY
LEVERAGING PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS TO:

52. 51
Example 1. ID4D – A crucial platform for inclusion
ID4D is a cross-sectoral platform that creates and leverages
partnerships with United Nations agencies, other donors, non-
government organizations, academia, and the private sector.

53. 52
Example 2. Digital Economy for Africa – DE4A
For a successful and inclusive
digital economy, African
countries must build the
foundational elements which
will drive high-impact cases
The WBG can accelerate
progress on the foundational
elements in Africa through a
combination of public and
private interventions along the
digital value chain

54. 53
Example 3. Investing in STI Capacities and Partnerships
PASET (Partnership for Skills in Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology)
ACE (Africa Higher Education Centers of Excellence)
Pan-African fund
contributed by
governments and donors.
Public-private partnership
for:
• PhD scholarship
• Research grant
• Innovation grant
Building STEM capacity in
universities and research
institutes
• About $600m funding,
since 2014
• 46 centers in 16
countries, competitively
selected
• KPIs: publications,
curriculum updated,
regional talent mobility,
partnerships,
universities’ income
Active Prep

55. 54
Boosting Human Capital will be essential to compete in a
digital economy
“The education system is not working. What happens if you're
stunted to begin with and your educational system is not
providing you what you need to compete in the digital economy
of the future”
The Human Capital Project is designed to help countries
improve their education, health and social protection systems
to raise the next generation of well-equipped and healthy
people.
Three main indicators, reflecting building blocks of the Human
Capital Project:
1. Survival – Will kids born today survive to school age?
2. School – How much school will they complete and how
much will they learn?
3. Health – Will kids leave school in good health and be
ready for further learning and/or work?

56. 55
World Development Report 2019:
The Changing Nature of Work
The report will study how the nature of work is
changing as a result of advances in technology today.
A new social contract is needed to smooth the
transition and guard against rising inequality.
Significant investments in human capital throughout a
person’s lifecycle are vital to this effort. If workers
are to stay competitive against machines they need to
train or retool existing skills.
Improved private sector policies to encourage startup
activity and competition can help countries to
compete in the digital age.

57. China: Harnessing STI to Achieve SDGs
56

58. China: Economic Growth Timeline
57
Source: Income Growth and Population Change: BRIC, Wells Fargo Economics

59. China’s Transformation in Two Decades (2001-
2020)
Source: IDC, China Opportunities Program – Economic Trends.
58

60. China and Its Globalization
China $ into US
Source: IDC, China Opportunities Program – Economic Trends. 59

61. 60

62. Source: HKTDC Research
61

63. For thousands of years, the Silk Road Spirit – "peace and
cooperation, openness and inclusiveness, mutual learning and
mutual benefit" – has been passed from generation to
generation, promoted the progress of human civilization, and
contributed greatly to the prosperity and development of the
countries along the Silk Road. Symbolizing communication and
cooperation between the East and the West, the Silk Road Spirit
is a historic and cultural heritage shared by all countries around
the world.
White Paper: Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk
Road, March 2015.
62

64. Source: HKTDC Research
Belt and Road Initiative: Five Pillars
63

65. 64
• China has made innovation the core of its 13th five-year plan and
issued "National Innovation-Driven Development Strategy Outline",
with the aim of becoming an "innovation nation" by 2020, an
international leader in innovation by 2030, and a world powerhouse in
scientific and technological innovation by 2050.
• China plans to accelerate R&D and commercialization of new
materials, artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, bio-pharmacy, 5G
mobile communications, and other technology to develop industrial
clusters in these fields.
• China attaches great importance to leveraging STI to achieve
sustainable development. At the G20 Hangzhou Summit, President Xi
Jinping called for efforts to “jointly facilitate an inclusive and
interconnected global development governance to deliver on the UN
2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and jointly advance the
well-being of mankind”.
Innovation-driven development in China

66. China: Science, Technology and Innovation for SDGs
China has taken a series of pragmatic innovation initiatives:
Align 2030 Agenda
with national STI
plan
Align 2030 Agenda with national STI plan within the
framework of the 13th Five Year Plan, and a National Plan
of STI for Social Development was formulated. China has
launched a series of STI R&D projects
National Program
of Action of ST for
Poverty Reduction
Increase ST service to poor areas, scale up regional
poverty reduction endeavors, with a view to providing ST
support to the effort of lifting everyone out of poverty by
2020 and creating a new model of innovation driven
development for poor areas
Innovation
demonstration
zones
Establish innovation demonstration zones for
implementing the 2030 Agenda on the basis of the existing
national experimental zones for sustainable development.
Bank of green
technologies
Build a platform for the integration of science and
technology with financial capital and speed up the industry-
scale application of ST results; and, gather innovations in
the area of green technology from all over the world to help
build Shanghai into a global STI center 65

67. Made in China 2025
Source: IDC, Made in China 2025.
66

68. 67Source: marketintelligencellc.com
Artificial Intelligence in China

69. 68
China’s Strong focus on IoT
China’s industrial output in IoT exceeded
930 billion yuan ($140 billion) in 2016.
The value was almost six-times the level
in 2009, when the sector saw 170 billion
yuan of output.
In June, faster development of
infrastructure and innovation in IoT pilot
zones was announced. The zones aim to
promote IoT in public safety, healthcare,
urban management and well-being
services.
Pilot zone: Fuzhou economic and
technical development zone has IoT
integrated in fields of retail, transport,
environmental protection, medical care
and power grids
Source: Ministry of Industry Information Technology

70.  780 Taobao Villages
 200,000+ active online shops
 17 provinces & municipalities
 More than 30 Taobao Villages, most of
them located in Guangzhou and Yiwu, are
estimated to have achieved annual sales
of more than RMB100 million.
 60% of all Taobao Villages achieved
RMB10 million to RMB30 million in
annual sales.
 The number of Taobao Villages located in
province-level impoverished countries
has even reached 166.
Source: 2015 China Taobao Villages Research Report by AliResearch
69
Photo credit: Xinhua
Technology & Innovation for Development: Taobao Villages
69

71. lends to governments of middle-income and creditworthy low-income countries
provides interest-free loans, or credits, and grants to governments of the poorest countries
provides loans, equity, and advisory services to stimulate private sector investments in developing
countries
provides political risk insurance and credit enhancement to investors and lenders to facilitate FDI in
emerging economies
provides international facilities for conciliation and arbitration of investment disputes
1944
International Bank for
Reconstruction and
Development (IBRD)
1960
International
Development
Association
(IDA)
1956
International
Finance
Corporation
(IFC)
1988
Multilateral Investment
Guarantee Agency
(MIGA)
1966
International Center for the
Settlement of Investment
Disputes
(ICSID)
The World Bank Group

72. worldbankgroup.org/sdgs
Follow us on twitter @WBG2030
Mahmoud-Mohieldin on
@wbg2030
worldbank.org/sdgs
July 2018
Mahmoud Mohieldin
Senior Vice President
World Bank Group