1) The document is a presentation by Mahmoud Mohieldin, Senior Vice President of the World Bank, on China's reforms and the 2030 Agenda. It discusses global megatrends like demographic shifts, climate change, and technological changes that are impacting development. 2) It analyzes China's progress in reducing poverty and transitioning to more sustainable and innovation-driven growth. China has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty through reforms and achieving remarkable growth rates. 3) The presentation recommends China further remove market distortions, diffuse advanced technologies, and foster innovation to promote new drivers of growth and maximize its development potential in achieving the 2030 Agenda.

1. Mahmoud Mohieldin
Senior Vice President
China:
New Frontiers of
Reform
and the
2030 Agenda
9th Forum on National Affairs
September 20th, 2018
Beijing, China
@wbg2030
worldbank.org/sdgs0
NOT FOR FURTHER
CIRCULATION

2. Global Megatrends
1

3. Global Megatrends
Fragility and violence
Demographic transitions and Urbanization
Renewed debate about globalization
Technological changes
Market volatility and commodity cycles
2
2
Climate change
Shifts in the global economy

4. Demographic Transitions and Urbanization
Global Working Age Population and Urbanization are Increasing
3
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank
55
60
65
70
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
World Advanced Economies Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Percent of total population that is working age
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
Life Expectancy in
Asia and the World
East Asia & Pacific World
Source: GlobalPost, 2014
Source: World Bank Global Economic Prospects, 2018

5. Fragility and Violence
4Source: World Bank 2017
Number of people killed by violent conflictNumber of conflicts, by type
Violent conflict is increasing and becoming more complex
The global forcibly displaced population
The crisis primarily affects the developing world

6. Source: Building Resilience report, World Bank, 2014
Climate change and resources
Percentage point increase in poverty rate
5
Climate change could raise
extreme poverty rates
substantially by 2030
Development progress needs
to integrate resilience to
avoid undoing hard fought
development gains

7. Commodity price indexes, annual
Market Volatility and Commodity Cycles
Source: Commodity Markets Outlook, World Bank, 2018
6
6

8. According to
Oxford University
47% of jobs in the
US will disappear
in the next 25
years
Source: GSMA Intelligence (2017), World Bank – World Development Indicator (2017)
See Annex, pp20-24 for additional data on the emerging digital divide and trends in the digital sector
The Impact of Technology
Changing Demand for Changing Skills
7Source:21 Jobs of the Future, A Guide to Getting – and Staying – Employed Over the Next 10 Years, Center for the Future of Work, 2017
Source: Presentation by Ben Pring, The Future of Labor & Work in
a Post Bretton Woods World, September 2018

9. 8
Impact of Technology
Growth of the Global Labor Force
Industrial Jobs are Falling in the West and Rising in the East
Source: World Bank World Development Report 2019: Changing Nature of Work

10. 9
Impact of Technology
Boundaries of Firms Are Changing Rapidly
Source: World Bank World Development Report 2019: Changing Nature of Work

11. Reflections on Multipolarity
10
Channels of growth spillovers from a growth pole
Source: Multipolarity: The New Global Economy, World Bank, 2011

12. Renewed Debate about Globalization
Global Gross Financial Flows, 1990-2016 (percent of world GDP)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Merchandise Trade % of GDP
FDI Flows % of Investment
Trade and FDI depth through 2016
Source: Braga, 2017
Source: Ghemawat, 2017
11

13. A Framework
Technology Drives the Pace and Scope of Change
12
• Taking advantage of
the opportunities and
mitigating the risks of
global megatrends
will require an
enabling policy
framework
• Harnessing the
impact of
technological changes
requires a
comprehensive policy
framework
Invest in
infrastructure
Invest in human
capital
Enablers
Achieving the SDGs
Data Finance STI
Invest in resilience,
incl social protection
Source: Adapted from World Bank World Development Report 2019: Changing Nature of Work

14. Meeting the SDGs:
Human Capital, Resilience,
Infrastructure,
and Technology
13

15. Source: New Growth Models, World Economic Forum, 2014
Inclusive Growth for Poverty Reduction
Dashboard for inclusive, sustainable, and multidimensional growth
14

16. Investing in Human Capital
Three main indicators, reflecting
building blocks of the human
capital:
• Survival – Will kids born
today survive to school
age?
• School – How much school
will they complete and how
much will they learn?
• Health – Will kids leave
school in good health and
be ready for further
learning and/or work?
“How much human capital will a child born today acquire by the end of
secondary school, given the risks to health, education and social protection that
prevail in the country where she was born?”
15
15
Source: Human Capital: A Project for the World, World Bank , 2018

17. Social protection
and labor
regulation can
help manage
labor market
challenges
Investing in Resilience
16
16
Source: World Bank World Development Report 2019: Changing Nature of Work

18. Source: SDG Atlas, World Bank, 2018
17
17
Investing in Resilience

19. 18
18
Investing in Infrastructure
1E+11
1.5E+11
2E+11
2.5E+11
3E+11
3.5E+11
4E+11
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Infrastructure Outlook: Africa
Current trends
Investment need
Investment need inc. SDGs
1.3E+12
1.5E+12
1.7E+12
1.9E+12
2.1E+12
2.3E+12
Infrastructure Outlook: Asia
Current trends
Investment need
Investment need inc. SDGs
Source: Global Infrastructure Hub, 2018

20. 19
World Bank Group’s Technology Vision
Supporting Clients to Maximize Technology Benefits

21. Develop Robust Financial and Data
Infrastructure to Sustain Fintech Benefits
Ensure Stability of
Domestic Monetary and
Financial Systems
20
Maximizing Fintech’s Potential
Opportunities, Challenges, Risks
Enable New
Technologies to
Enhance
Financial Service
Provision
Adapt Regulatory Framework and Supervisory
Practices for Orderly Development and Stability
of the Financial System
Modernize Legal Frameworks
to Provide an Enabling Legal
Landscape Enhance Collective Surveillance
of the International Monetary and
Financial System
Monitor Developments Closely to
Deepen Understanding of Evolving
Financial Systems
Reinforce Competition and
Commitment to Open, Free and
Contestable Markets
Safeguard the
Integrity of
Financial
Systems
Encourage
International
Cooperation and
Information
Sharing
Foster Fintech to Promote
Financial Inclusion and Develop
Financial Markets
Embrace
the
Promise
of Fintech
Source: The Bali Fintech Agenda, World Bank, 2018

22. 21
Data is a Problem, even in Canada
Source: Who and what gets left behind? Assessing Canada’s domestic status on the sustainable development goals, Brookings, 2017
0
5
10
15
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Seventy-eight of 169 SDG targets
describe potentially assessable
outcomes for Canada
Not able to assess
Proxy target
Canadian national target
Quantified SDG target

23. A LARGE POOL OF
PRIVATE CAPITAL
IS YET TO BE
CATALIZED
WITH JUDICIOUS USE OF
SCARCE PUBLIC
AND CONCESSIONAL
RESOURCES
Finance for the SDGs will need to come from
multiple sources
22

24. 23
STI for Implementation
Digital education creates
classrooms at scale and
connects world-class
teachers to students who
need them most
E-health can serve some
of the neediest patients
in the world’s hardest to
reach places
Digital financial services
provide new
opportunities for SME
savings, credit, and
insurance thereby
spurring expansion
Digital payments and
monitoring enable off-
grid, renewable energy
sources to be deployed
years in advance of
traditional approaches
Source: Presentation to the UAEU, Mohieldin, 2017

25. Promoting New Drivers of
China’s Growth
24

26. 25
China’s Poverty Reduction Rate has been
Remarkable
Source: SDG Atlas 2017

27. 26
China’s Rural Poverty Reduction is Equally
Impressive
Source: China’s Progress Report on Implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1978 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016
Povertyincidence(%)
Numberofruralpoor(millions)
Rural Poor Population (million) Poverty Incidence Rate (%)

28. Source: IDC, China Opportunities Program – Economic Trends. 27
China’s Impressive Growth is
Transitioning to a New Normal

29. 28
China’s Voluntary National Review
Key Considerations to Maximize Full Potential
Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China, 2017

30. Enhancing the Business Environment
China has implemented 26 business regulatory reforms in 15 years
29
29
China’s Doing Business Rankings 2018
Source: Doing Business 2018

31. 30
Over 30% of Global Unicorns* are from China

32. 31
China’s Technology Companies Achieve
Rapid Global Growth Momentum

33. China has made innovation the core of its 13th five-year plan
"National Innovation-Driven Development Strategy Outline” with the
aim of becoming
• an innovation nation by 2020
• an international leader in innovation by 2030
• a world powerhouse in scientific and technological innovation
by 2050
China’s Innovation-driven Development
Credit: Is there a Chinese model of innovation? McKinsey.
32

34. Promoting New Drivers of China’s Growth
Key Recommendations from Joint DRC-WBG Study
33
• Remove Distortions to Strengthen Market
Competition and Enhance the Efficient
Allocation of Resources in the economy
• Diffuse advanced technologies and
management practices in China’s economy
• Foster Discovery and Nurture China’s
competitive and innovative capacity

35. Mahmoud Mohieldin
Senior VP
Thank You
worldbankgroup.org/sdgs
Follow us on twitter @WBG2030
Mahmoud-Mohieldin on
@wbg2030
worldbank.org/sdgs
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