Diplomatic Institute Cairo, Egypt December 2018

1. MahmoudMohieldin
Senior VicePresident
Sustainability and Disruptions
Diplomatic Institute
Cairo, Egypt
December 27th, 2018
@wbg2030
worldbank.org/sdgs

2. The SDGs present a major
opportunity for transformation
Global development agendas serve as a guide for countries to determine their national development path
MDGs(2000-2015) SDGs (2016-2030)
Goals/Targets/Indicators 8/21/60 17/169/~230
PriorityAreas HumanDevelopment Holistic: Economic, Social, Environmental
Scope DevelopingCountries Universal

3. (i) economic—helping the
low-income countries
achieve theSDGs
(ii) social—the importance
of inclusion and equity
(iii) environmental—
tackling climate change
(iv) governance—the
centrality of strong
institutions
Four dimensions of
achieving theSDGs

4. Economic Dimensions of Achieving theSDGs
1
Economic
effects of lack
of access to
essential
services
2
High levels of
debt,
especially in
low-income
countries
3
Prioritizing
lower income
countries
4
Partnerships
are key

5. Gender EqualityIncome Equality

7. '-1
.
:
..
• • • , ,
,_ • I
- ., ....f1'
' ......,,,

8. Markets Disruption Solution
Capital
• Increasing Public Debt
(Largest public debt since the
1980s)
• Fintech
• Crypto-assets
• Data; analytics; debt
management; outreach
• Bali Fintech Agenda
• Innovation policy and
regulation
Trade
• Trade TensionsUS/China
• Tech disruption platforms
• Resort to WTO and other
measures
• Invest in HC and DNA
Labor
• Volatility in Growth
• Jobless growth
• Fast automation (gig
economy)
• Inclusive growth policies
•Invest in HC, social
protection, and resilience

9. 9
Change from
June 2018
2012-16 2017 2018e 2019f 2020f 2018 2019
World 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 -0.1 -0.1
Advanced economies 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.6 0.0 0.0
EMDEs 4.8 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.6 -0.3 -0.4
East Asia and Pacific 7.3 6.6 6.3 6.0 6.0 0.0 -0.1
Europe and Central Asia 3.2 4.0 3.1 2.5 2.7 -0.1 -0.6
Latin America and the Caribbean 2.2 0.8 0.7 1.8 2.4 -1.0 -0.5
Middle East and North Africa 3.5 1.2 1.8 1.9 2.7 -1.2 -1.4
SouthAsia 6.4 6.2 6.9 7.1 7.1 0.0 0.0
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.3 2.5 2.8 3.4 3.6 -0.3 -0.1

10. Global industrial production gro">vth and exp o1·torders
8 (Percent,3 1110111/tsSA) (I11cleY., 50+ =e.,pa11sio11)56
• Industrial production gro">vth
- Export orders (RHS)
6
4
..·1 1-
'"'"
2 ,,
....
,.
.
0
2016 2017 2018

11. 11
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
United States China
EMDEs Global
80
90
100
110
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
China
Other EM7
85
90
95
100
105
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
China
Other EM7

12. 12
Bloomberg; Haver Analytics; World Bank
• Left Panel. Inflation is measured by year-on-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. Both PCE price index and unemploymentrate are
seasonally adjusted. Dotted lines refer to projections over longer run in the latest FOMC) meeting (in September2018), based on the central
tendency. Last observation is August 2018. Right Panel.
4
5
(Percent of labor
6
0
1
2
3
(Percent,year-on-year)
2015 2016 2017 2018
Inflation
Unemployment rate (RHS
force)
)
3 -1
0
1
2
3
4
2010 2013 2016 2019 202
United States EuroArea Japan
FOMCmedian

13. 13
Brazil
Chile
Argentina
Colombia
India
Malaysia
Mexico
Morocco Peru
Philippines
Russia
SaudiArabia
SouthAfrica
ThailandTurkey
Indonesia
U.A.E.
Poland
Hungary
China
0
10
20
30
-10 5 10
Short-term
external debt
-5 0
Current account (CA) balance
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
EMDEs with current account EMDEs with current account
deficits surpluses

14. 14
Public Debt in EMs, 2013-18s (percent of GDP)

15. 15
EMs: Value of International Bonds Maturing Change in Credit Rating in EMs, 2012-18External Variable Rate Debt

16. Risks
Materialize
FX liquidity
measures
Declinein
growth
Declinein
capitalflows
Macro-
prudential
measures
Capital
flow
measures
FXreserve
buffers
Monetary
policy
Fiscal
policy
Implement
structural
reforms
Allow exchangerate
depreciation
Use targeted
interventions Use conventional tools,
weighing policy trade-offs
Use fiscal
stabilization if
space available;if
not, buildspace
Build-upcapital
buffers
Use swap and FX
liquiditymeasures
Ease capital flow regulation
Consider temporary restrictions
onoutflows
16
Financial stability
measures
Macroeconomic policy
measures

17. Economic functions
Innovations

18. 12 Elements of
the Bali
Fintech
Agenda
In response to calls from member countries the IMF and World Bank have
developed the “Bali Fintech Agenda.” It brings together key considerations for
policymakers and the international community into 12 elements arising from
the experience of member countries, including:
I. Embrace the promise of fintech.
II. Enable new technologies to enhance financial service provision.
III. Reinforce competition and commitment to open, free, and contestable
markets.
IV.Foster fintech to promote financial inclusion and develop financial markets.
V.Monitor developments closely to deepen understanding of evolving financial
systems.
VI. Adapt regulatory framework and supervisory practices for orderly
development and stability of the financial system.
VII. Safeguard the integrity of financial systems.
VIII. Modernize legal frameworks to provide an enabling legal landscape.
IX.Ensure the stability of domestic monetary and financial systems.
X. Develop robust financial and data infrastructure to sustain fintech benefits.
XI. Encourage international cooperation and information-sharing.
XII.Enhance collective surveillance of the international monetary and financial
system.
18

19. Traditional
disruptions in
Trade
• Impacts will not be limited to US andChina
and will be realized elsewhere
• Global income could decline by up to 1.7%
($1.4 trillion) with losses across all regions.
• Global exports could fall by up to 3% ($674
billion), with largest declines in China and the
US.
• Concerns regarding second round effects and
intensification through investment and
market sentiment channels
19
Source: Impacts on Global Trade and Income of Current Trade Disputes. CarolineFreund et al. World Bank Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Practice Note. July 2018. Number 2.
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/685941532023153019/pdf/128644-MTI-Practice-Note-2-Final-3.pdf

20. TradePolicyin theUnited States
EscalatingTradeTensions;Rising PolicyUncertainty
6
Imports subject to nev tau·iffs, 2 018
(Perce11cof globalgooasi111por1s)
Policy uncertainty
(I111lex, lo11g-1trn1aver11ge=J0/J)
400
4
• United States
• Rest of t h,e vorlcl
• United States- under consideration
- Vorld - underconsideration
- Global policy uncetiainty
- l l.S. tt·ade uncertainty•
-
• 300
u
2006 2015
200
2
100
0
Jan JulMat· Sep 2009 2012
Soiv. B:'ll«'f,BIOctn,mc1):t i$ (:-Ol<Xlbi 1etSu1esEn1t1n1.:ioooTtadeConl!J'lSS.,Cl.li.1orL1Bu.it
le ft Paod.u:po:tssobjm I• Dt::1tti:ffi.iJntleaent:d ii tilt Uci1edSU!es wt lht lleit<>f ? dd in OIS.3.;'Ad ulbouutercon.idcntion.a apcnc,c1 f obdgood i:m;om.011.1n a;
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hi on Ille ffeq.1,i,ney of;a:dc .,. indon:ien<'. 1-"" lJQPl'U :%ll'ttiotma «o:u:xrcic policr m.coefQJOty :n.dt m i l ! ' t b &Mto 1r» pc,:iey (e.J.. inp o,i bnf6.im;x,rtb:,1ri.e,n . TO diunp11$.d e.)
..t,:d . Lan ib·.el''llllQHSA 20l3.
2018

22. Changes in industrial relations
Source: Haskel, Jonathan, and Stian Westlake. “The Rise of the Intangible Economy.” Capitalism without Capital: the Rise of the Intangible Economy, Princeton University Press, 2018.

23. Boundaries of the firm
Source: WDR 2019

24. Scenarios of workers replacing robots…
and the history of man vs. machine
ElizabethI
Died1603 JosephJacquard
Died1834
Santanaof
Mexico
Died1876
“The summaryof
economic
science”
Published1913
Luddites
1811-16

25. Demand for skills
47% of jobs in the US
will disappear in the next
25 years, according to
Oxford University
Source: Presentation by Ben Pring, The Future of Labor & Work
in a Post Bretton Woods World, September 2018
Source: 21 Jobs of the Future: A Guide to Getting – and Staying – Employed
over the next 10 Years, Center for the Future of Work

26. 26
Financial stress Trade tensions
Policy uncertainty Geopolitical risks
Slower potential growth

27. Invest in resilience
(incl. social protection) Invest in infrastructureInvest in human
capital
Enablers
Achieving the SDGs
Finance Data STI
Harnessing the impact of
technological changes
requires a comprehensive
policy framework

28. Investing in Human Capital
Three main indicators, reflecting building blocks of
the human capital:
1. Survival – Will kids born today survive to
school age?
2. School – How much school will they
complete and how much will they learn?
3. Health – Will kids leave school in good
health and be ready for further learning
and/or work?
The Human Capital Project
“How much human capital will a child born today acquire by the end of secondary school, given the risks to
health, education and social protection that prevail in the country where she was born?”

30. 30
The Human Capital Index

31. Social protection
and labor
regulation can
help manage
labor market
challenges
Investing in Resilience
31
Source: World Bank World Development Report 2019:Changing Nature of Work 31

32. Source: SDG Atlas, World Bank, 2018
32
Investing in Resilience
32

33. 33
Investing in Digital Infrastructure
The digital economy can help achieve theSustainable DevelopmentGoals (SDGs)andWBG’s twin goals
DIGITAL
ECONOMY
Smart
Agriculture
Smart
Energy
eCommerce
Digital
Education
Digital
Health
Industry
4.0
Digital
Transport
Digital
Cultur
e
Inclusive
Growth
Jobs
Competitive
Economy
Efficiency
The scale and speedof
disruption is affecting
traditionalsectors.
Changing how we
collect, store,access,
analyze and present
data.
Improving production
techniques to increase
efficiency,affordability,
andspeed.
Transforming howwe
interact with theworld
and deliver/ receive
services.
Digitaleconomiesrequire safeguardsto ensure robust job markets,and possibledownsiderisks

34. How will we enable
these investments?
Data
Finance
Implementation
34

35. .,.·
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36. Data is a Problem, Even in Canada
Source: Who and what gets left behind? Assessing Canada’s domestic status on the sustainable development goals, Brookings, 2017
0
5
10
15
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Seventy-eight of 169 SDG targets
describe potentially assessable
outcomes for Canada
Not able to assess
Proxy target
Canadian national target
Quantified SDG target
36

37. The key
components
of financing
sustainable
development
Source: World Bank Group,2015

39. lNNOV'A rivI; SOLUTIONS TO
fl N A N C - e THE 5 D 6 s
=FINANCING""2030AGENDA

40. SGsHIGU-LEVELMEETING
"F"INACING""2030AGENDA!!:.K•

41. 103 countries have presented VNRs to date during the High-
Level Political Forum
8 countries presented more than once

42. SDGs'Implementationthrough LocalGovernments

43. Localization of Urban
Development
Kenya:
A government funded drought insurance
program brings satellite based insuranceto
Kenyan pastoralists and farmers using
mPesa.
Indonesia:
A program is being
implemented to enhance the
capacity of local governments
to improve efficiency and
effectiveness of local public
spending.
Also implemented thePNPM
program: community driven
development
U.K. Midlands
Successful locally owned
businesses help develop local
markets, create innovation,
success and redistribution in a
self-reinforcingcycle
Colombia:

44. The IT revolution has made
the centralization vs.
decentralization debate
irrelevant

45. • Overview: SDGs&Her is an online competition for women micro entrepreneurs to show how they are supporting
the SDGs through their business operations.
• Eligibility: The competition is open to women who own and/or lead microenterprises (1-9 employees; under USD
$10,000 loan eligibility OR annual sales under $100,000).
• To Enter: Applicants complete a short online template, describing their work and linking their initiative/product
to 1 or more SDGs.
• Judging: Entries will be screened by a university partner and then judged by an expert panel. Judges will
determine the winners based on the impact on the SDGs, vision and purpose, and clarity of the entries.
• Prizes: The top winners will be recognized at an event at the margins of the 2019 World Bank Group/IMF Spring
Meetings. The stories of the winning women entrepreneur (and many other notable entries) will be shared through
partners’ social media and websites.
• Deadline: December 31, 2018.
To enter click here
Encore!

46. • Launched in 2014. Youth competition on innovative ways to finance and implement development solutions to
help reach the SDGs.
• Partnership between the World Bank Group and the Wharton School, amongst others
• In 2017 the Ideas for Action (I4A) competition attracted over 700 proposals from 118 countries.
• Winning proposals :
• Top 10 will be published in a book
• Top 3 will participate in the WBG-IMF Annual Meetings
• The Wharton School offers top 10 winners training and opportunities to exchange knowledge
• Visit the website at http://www.ideas4action.org/; Follow us @Ideas4Action
• Call for proposals for the 2018 edition of I4A:Deadline February 28th http://www.ideas4action.org/2018-
competition/
Watch video of
2016 winners
Encore!!

47. Mahmoud Mohieldin
Senior VP
Thank You
worldbankgroup.org/sdgs
Follow us on twitter @WBG2030
Mahmoud-Mohieldin on
@wbg2030
worldbank.org/s
47

48. lends to governments of middle-income and creditworthy low-income countries
provides interest-free loans, or credits, and grants to governments of the poorest countries
provides loans, equity, and advisory services to stimulate private sector investments in developing countries
provides political risk insurance and credit enhancement to investors and lenders to facilitate FDI in emerging
economies
provides international facilities for conciliation and arbitration of investment disputes
1944
International Bank for
Reconstruction and
Development(IBRD)
1960
International
Development
Association(IDA)
1956
International
Finance
Corporation(IFC)
1988
MultilateralInvestment
GuaranteeAgency
(MIGA)
1966
International Center for the
Settlement of Investment
Disputes
(ICSID)
The World Bank
Group