What does the future of the energy system look like? How do the projections of Shell, BP, Exxon, and Statoil stack up against the IEA and others?

1. With
Pathways to 2oC-Compatible Oil & Gas Majors
Review of Selected Outlooks and Key Uncertainties
Lucas Kruitwagen
Research Assistant
E: Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
T: +44 754 231 3401

2. • Selected Outlooks
• Key Uncertainties
• Direction of Travel
• Findings
• Next Steps
Paper: Kruitwagen, L. & Holmes, I. (2016) ‘Future Pathways to 1.5oC/2oC-Compatible Oil & Gas
Majors: Survey of energy outlooks and key uncertainties’, Working Paper.
Outline
Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
2016.09.26 |

3. International Energy Agency
World Energy Outlook
Energy Information Agency
International Energy Outlook
Institute for Energy Economics, Japan
Asia/World Energy Outlook
World Energy Council
World Energy Scenarios
Org. of Petroleum Exporting Countries
World Oil Outlook
Royal Dutch Shell Plc
New Lens Scenarios
BP Plc
Energy Outlook
Statoil SA
Energy Perspectives
Exxon Corp
Outlook for Energy
Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
Selected Outlooks
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
IEA-CPS
IEA-NPS
IEA-450
IEA-LOP
EIA-REF
EIA-HOP
EIA-LOP
IEEJ-REF
IEEJ-ADV
IEEJ-LOP
WEC-JAZ
WEC-SYM
OPEC-REF
RDS-MOU
RDS-OCE
RDS-PNZ
BP-REF
STA-REF
STA-REN
STA-RIV
EXX-REF
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
2016.09.26 |

4. Fig 1a: GDP Growth Projections Fig 1b: Population Growth Projections
Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
Key Uncertainties: GDP & Population
2016.09.26 |

5. Fig 2: Total Primary Energy Demand
Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
Key Uncertainties: Total Primary Energy Demand
2016.09.26 |

6. Fig 3a: Energy-GDP Decoupling - OECD Fig 3c: Energy-GDP Decoupling - India
Fig 3d: Energy-GDP Decoupling – Rest of WorldFig 3a: Energy-GDP Decoupling - China
Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
Key Uncertainties: Energy-GDP Decoupling
2016.09.26 |

7. Fig 4: 2040 Oil Demand by Sector
*BP-REF: Bunker fuel consumption comingled with transport consumption
Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
Key Uncertainties: Oil Demand
2016.09.26 |

8. Fig 5: Passenger Light Duty Vehicle Electrification
Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
Key Uncertainties: Light Duty Vehicle Electrification
2016.09.26 |
BNEF: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

9. Fig 7: OPEC Portion of Production ProjectionFig 6: Oil Production Projections
Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
Key Uncertainties: Oil Production & OPEC Portion
2016.09.26 |

10. Fig 8: Oil Price Projections
Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
Key Uncertainties: Long-Term Oil Price
2016.09.26 |
CEP: Cambridge Economics, Poyry, ICCT (2016). Oil Market Futures.

11. Fig 9: 2040 Gas Demand by Sector
Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
Key Uncertainties: Natural Gas Demand
2016.09.26 |

12. Fig 10: Electricity Generating Options
Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
Key Uncertainties: Global Generating Mix
2016.09.26 |

13. Fig 11: CO2 Emissions for Selected Scenarios
Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
Key Uncertainties: Carbon Dioxide Emissions
2016.09.26 |

14. Fig 12a: IEA Solar PV Capacity Projections Fig 12b: IEA Wind Capacity Projections
Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
Direction of Travel: IEA Solar PV & Wind Capacity
2016.09.26 |

15. Fig 13b: 2040 Exxon
TPED YOY Change
Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
Direction of Travel: YOY TPED Projection Changes
2016.09.26 |
Fig 13a: 2030 BP
TPED YOY Change
COAL OIL GAS NUCLEAR RENEWABLE

16. Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
Direction of Travel: YOY TPED Projection Changes
2016.09.26 |
Fig 13e: 2020 IEA 450S
TPED YOY Change
Fig 13c: 2020 IEA CPS
TPED YOY Change
Fig 13d: 2020 IEA NPS
TPED YOY Change
COAL OIL GAS NUCLEAR RENEWABLE
COAL OIL GAS NUCLEAR RENEWABLE

17. Fig 14: IEA CO2 Emissions Projections
Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
Direction of Travel: IEA Emissions Projections
2016.09.26 |

18. • Many 2oC-warming scenarios share characteristics with low oil
price scenarios
• A substantial gap exists between 2oC-warming compatible
scenarios and central scenarios
• The direction of travel has been towards lower total and fossil fuel
energy demand
• Even while renewables have boomed, outlooks for other low-
carbon energy sources have deteriorated
• Limited transparency in some outlooks/scenarios obstructs
engagement on their content
Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
2016.09.24 |
Findings

19. Lucas.Kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
2016.09.24 |
Next Steps
• Development of a scenarios ‘game’:
• Roleplay corporate capital allocation decisions through
successive years of any scenario
• Roleplay investing strategies through the same time period,
including divesting and engaging strategies
• More detailed look at relationships between IOCs, NOCs, OECD
governments, and OPEC governments

20. CONTACT
Lucas Kruitwagen
Research Assistant
Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment
E: lucas.kruitwagen@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
T: +44 (0)75 4231 3401
Ingrid Holmes
Director
E3G, Third Generation Environmentalism Ltd.
E: ingrid.holmes@e3g.org
T: +44 (0)20 7593 2029