Max Ball (SaskPower) - Building on the success at Boundary Dam - UKCCSRC Cranfield Biannual 21-22 April 2015

1. Carbon Capture and Storage Initiatives
E X E C U T I V E S T R A T E G I C
P L A N N I N G S E S S I O N
CHOOSING RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
FOR CCS
@SaskPowerCCS
MAX BALL, MANAGER, CCTF, SASKPOWER

2. CLIMATE CHANGE MANAGEMENT
REQUIRES TOOLS
IEA: All 2 Degrees Scenarios Without
CCS are More Expensive – and Cost Matters
CITATION: ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2012, IEA

3. 10 YEARS AGO

4. SASKPOWER CLEAN
COAL TASK FORCE:
1. PEOPLE NEED TO SEE THAT IT WORKS
2. MUST HAVE SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE
3. MUST BE COST COMPETITVE WITH
OTHER ACCEPTABLE ENERGY FORMS

5. PEOPLE NEED TO SEE THAT IT WORKS

6. 20% Capital
Grant
EOR
Competitive Low
Carbon Electricity
New
Generator
Existing
Infrastructure
SUCCESS FORMULA FOR
BOUNDARY DAM ICCS DEMO

7. BOUNDARY DAM CCS PROJECT IS
NOW 6 MONTHS OLD!
5,000,000 mhr
$1.48M vs $1.24M
120MW vs 110MW
Heavy Loads
81 vs 72 months
200,000 Tonnes
delivered
for revenue

8. • some subsystems found to be conservative,
• some subsystems have deficiencies yet to
solve: in reliability, capacity, automation or
operability –
• No events contravening regulation
• On track for planned CO2 recovery rates
• Some equipment issues to be resolved
BOUNDARY DAM CCS PROJECT IS
NOW 6 MONTHS OLD!

9. CCS DEMONSTRATION
IN POWER GENERATION
NOW LIVE

10. Peterhead
Petra nova
Kemper
White Rose
COMING SOON

11. SASKPOWER CLEAN
COAL TASK FORCE:
1. PEOPLE NEED TO SEE THAT IT WORKS
2. MUST HAVE SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE
3. MUST BE COST COMPETITVE WITH
OTHER ACCEPTABLE ENERGY FORMS

12. Saskatchewan
2008
• Linked to future of
coal and oil industries
• Within the experience
of regional population
(pipelines, storage)
• Safe storage proven
with Weyburn site
since 2000
• Wide spread
consultation
• General
acceptance
• Concern on cost –
(20% over
estimate)
• External Critics
who are opposed
to fossil use
Saskatchewan
2015
• Ideally:
a robust public
understanding of
lifecycle
implications for
CCS in overall
socio/economic
health and safety
terms
Saskatchewan
2020
PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE
IN SASKATCHEWAN

13. 2008
• 10 or 20 Pilot Plants
Globally
• Large Financial
Incentives for
Development:
– Canada
– USA
– EU
– Australia
– UK
– Germany
– Spain
– Norway
• Number of pilot plants
roughly unchanged (+/-
in various regions)
• Kemper County under
construction
• Petra Nova Announced
• Capture from fertilizer
and gas processing
• China/US accord
• Future Gen 2.0 and
other flagship projects
shut down
• Loss of public
confidence in some
regions
2015 2020
PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE
GLOBALLY
• Ideally:
a robust public
understanding of
lifecycle
implications for
CCS in overall
socio/economic
health and safety
terms

14. GHG INTENSITY
Selected Supply Options
400
300
200
100
kg/kWh

15. SASKPOWER CLEAN
COAL TASK FORCE:
1. PEOPLE NEED TO SEE THAT IT WORKS
2. MUST HAVE SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE
3. MUST BE COST COMPETITVE WITH
OTHER ACCEPTABLE ENERGY FORMS

16. MUST BE COST COMPETITIVE WITH
ACCEPTABLE ALTERNATIVES

17. NATURAL GAS PRICING

18. NATURAL GAS PRICING
HENRY HUB – NOV 2014

19. GLOBAL NATURAL GAS PRICING

20. WIND

21. WIND FARM NEEDS TO WORK
WITH SOMETHING ELSE
A very good wind day: 53% capacity

22. Gas turbine fills the gap
Combined GHG intensity of 311 kg/kWh
Compared to 110 kg/kWh for BD3
WIND FARM NEEDS TO WORK
WITH SOMETHING ELSE

23. TECHNOLOGY COST REDUCING
WITH EXPERIENCE

24. • Concept of levelized cost goes back to the
early 20th Century when analysts understood
that initial cost was not a deciding factor in
selecting generation supplies, but detailed
economic modeling of every combination
was not viable
• Used here as a proxy for lifecycle costs
• OK for very similar models
• Lifecycle costs are the real test
LEVELIZED COST

25. 300 MW supply, large
scale CCS, compliant
with Federal Regulations
on GHG
Falling N Gas
price in North
America
Wind/Gas
SELECTED SUPPLY OPTIONS FOR SASK
STARTING POINT FOR COMPETITION
$/MWh

26. • Technical Improvements
• Business Case Improvements
– Economies of scale and replication
– Better certainty in Design and Performance
– Reduced Financial, Business and execution risk
– Equivalent Tax Treatment
• Gas Price Increase
• Emissions Regulations for Gas
CAN WE CLOSE THE GAP?
WILL THE GAP CLOSE ITSELF?

27. T H E F U T U R E O F
C C S A T S A S K P O W E R
Unit Initial
Investment
Final
Investment
In Service
BD 4/5 2016 2019* 2025*
BD 6 2022 2024 2028*
PR 1 2024 2026 2030*
PR 2 2024 2026 2030*
Shand 1 2037 2039 2043*
New Build New costs more than rebuild today
* Fixed by Regulation

28. P O S S I B L E F U T U R E O F C C S A T S A S K P O W E R
B O U N D A R Y D A M U N I T S # 4 & 5

29. S A S K P O W E R S H A N D
C A R B O N C A P T U R E T E S T F A C I L I T Y
S A S K P O W E R C A R B O N C A P T U R E
T E S T F A C I L I T Y ( C C T F )

30. THE PERFECT COST MODEL

31. 10 YEARS FROM NOW:
1. People will have seen
that CCS works
2. Most people will accept
that CCS is a safe and
viable GHG management
option
3. CCS will have been
economically competitive
some of the time

32. Carbon Capture and Storage Initiatives
E X E C U T I V E S T R A T E G I C
P L A N N I N G S E S S I O N
CHOOSING RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
FOR CCS
@SaskPowerCCS
MAX BALL, MANAGER, CCTF, SASKPOWER