The document discusses sunspots and their effect on climate change. It summarizes that the current solar cycle 24 is predicted to peak in 2013 with fewer sunspots than previous cycles. While the sun is the major energy source for the planet, recent research indicates no direct link between variations in the sun's output and accelerated global warming over the past 30 years. The implications of new understandings of solar luminosity change suggest brightening of the sun is unlikely to have significantly influenced global warming since the 17th century.

1. Sunspots and Climate Change
Effect of Sunspots on Climate
By Ted Badami
Dr. Norman Meek

2. Project Overview
Sunspot definition and history.
Test questions:
What is happening with the current cycle?
Review of predictions made in 2007 and what has happened since?
How unusual is the current cycle?
Deviation and scientific consensus.
Global warming and solar activity.
Implications of recent research discoveries.

3. Sunspot Basics
Notable sunspot events are listed below.
Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the
photosphere of the Sun that appear visibly as
dark spots compared to surrounding regions.
They are caused by intense magnetic activity.

4. What is happening with the current cycle?
It is predicted that Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with about 58 sunspots. This
would make it the least active cycle since solar cycle 6, which ended in the year
1823.
The current solar cycle does not appear to be generating sunspots in the manner
which would be expected. Sunspots did not begin to appear immediately after the
last minimum (in 2008) and although they started to reappear in late 2009, they are
at significantly lower than anticipated.

5. Review of predictions made in 2007.
 Solar activity, which waxes and wanes in an 11-year cycle, will most likely
begin its next round in March 2008 and peak sometime between late 2011
and mid 2012. Science News May 5, 2007(p. 286)

6. …and what has happened since?

7. Is Cycle 24 Unusual?
YES!
Leading scientists are
divided on Cycle 24’s
predicted behavior.
Therefore, the answer must
be yes.

8. A panel of leading scientist split the vote. The following organizations are
represented: NOAA, NASA, NCAR, USAF, Swedish Institute of Space
Science, Stanford University. The University of Colorado, ETK Inc., IPS
Australia and the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
TheApril 25 Prediction Voting Panel Results 6-5
Deviation and Scientific Consensus

9. Global Warming and SolarActivity.
Although the Sun is the major source of energy affecting our planet, and there
are many instances of corollary evidence suggesting the solar cycle does affect
climate, recent research indicates no direct link.

10. Implications of recent research discoveries.
Variations in the Sun's total energy output (luminosity) are
caused by changing dark sunspot11-year sunspot cycle.
The variations measured from spacecraft since 1978 are
too small to have contributed appreciably to accelerated
global warming over the past 30 years.
Small output variations has greatly advanced our
understanding of solar luminosity change, and this new
understanding indicates that brightening of the Sun is
unlikely to have had a significant influence on global
warming since the seventeenth century.
Additional climate forcing by changes in the Sun's output of
ultraviolet light, and of magnetized plasmas, cannot be
ruled out.

11. In Conclusion
Test Answers
 What is happening with the current cycle? The number of sunspots
are at significantly lower than anticipated.
 Review of predictions made in 2007. As predicted, though slow in
coming.
 How unusual is the current cycle? Very unusual compared to the
last 11,000 years.
 Deviation and scientific consensus. Scientific consensus is like
two theologians arguing religion.”
 Global warming and solar activity. Not a factor in climate change.
 Research Implications. The suggested mechanisms are, however,
too complex to evaluate meaningfully at present.

12. References
 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/?n=sunspots
 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v443/n7108/abs/n
ature05072.html
 http://science.nasa.gov/search/?q=Implications+of+rec
ent+research+discoveries%2C+sunspots+and+climate
 http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l
.gif
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png
 http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptic_arguments/solar
/600px-Temp-sunspot-c
 http://www.space.com/8587-sun-strange-behavior-
baffles-astronomers.htmlo2.svg.png