Peter Schwartz's book, "The Art of the Long View," outlines scenario planning as a method for preparing for the future in an uncertain world. It emphasizes that scenario planning is not about predicting the future but rather about generating plausible futures to guide decision-making. The book offers principles for effective scenario building and highlights the importance of gathering diverse information and challenging assumptions to navigate complexities in strategic planning.

1. Some Impressionistic takes from the book of
Peter Schwartz
“The Art of the Long View“
Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World
by Ramki
ramaddster@gmail.com

2. Peter Schwartz (born 1946) is an American futurist, innovator, author, and co-founder
of the Global Business Network (GBN), a corporate strategy firm, specializing in
future-think and Scenario Planning
Schwartz has written several books, on a variety of future-oriented topics. His first
book, The Art of the Long View (Doubleday, 1991) is considered by many to be the
seminal publication on scenario planning, was voted the best all time book on the
future by the Association of Professional Futurists and is used as a textbook by many
business schools. Inevitable Surprises (Gotham, 2003) is a look at the forces at play
in today's world, and how they will continue to affect the world.
About the Author

3.  Peter Schwartz evidences charming honesty & humility about his
experiences building scenarios. He learned from his failures, so he
includes them, as well as his rather impressive successes.
 Schwartz emphasizes that scenario planning is not the same thing as
predicting the future and that complete accuracy is not the goal. Yet, it is
still striking how accurately his 1991 scenarios played out. He may have
missed a few specific events and trends but, if you’d based your actions on
his scenarios, you would have been well equipped for the last two
decades.
 His very useful principles of scenario planning and multisource information
gathering have not changed since he delineated them.
 The result is a classic. I recommend this book to entrepreneurs,
organizational decision makers and anyone interested in strategic
planning, futurism or change.
Prelude
In this Summary the take away are
1. What scenario planning is;
2. What principles and steps scenario planning involves; and
3. How to use scenarios to make better decisions

5.  Scenario thinking is a powerful method for clarifying perceptions,
communicating, integrating quantitative and intuitive planning,
forcing people to think, working through complexity and influencing
an organization without micro-managing.
 Simply put, scenarios are alternative futures. People often spin
future scenarios unconsciously.
 Many companies have encountered severe problems because
management “locked in” to certain scenario and failed to consider
other potential outcomes.
 Conscious scenario planning forces managers to confront their
unspoken assumptions and test them in the glare of a possibly
adverse future.
 Leaders/Managers need to recognize that the way they think affects
what they see.
 What they assume to be true can often blind them to what is, in fact,
happening.
What are Scenarios ?

6.  To prepare your organization to use scenario planning, it is necessary
to:
 Understand that people always spin scenarios — Allow alternative
scenarios to come forth for open discussion and debate.
 Examine your assumptions — Determine how habitual behavior &
thought patterns constrain your individual and organizational thinking.
 Plan strategically — Make a conscious, deliberate effort to balance
quantitative planning with intuitive, “gut” planning.
 Test readiness for change — Challenge “business as usual” ideas.
 Do a creativity check — Honestly examine how often your
organization develops really innovative plans and concepts.
 Make decisions — Explore alternatives before reaching a consensus.
 Recognize uncertainty — In fact, admit and embrace uncertainty.
 Clarify all communications — Eliminate jargon, confusing language
and doubletalk
What are Scenarios ?

7. Scenarios are stories
Scenarios are maps of the future
Scenarios are mental maps
Scenarios are mental models
Scenarios are narratives
Scenarios are pictures
Scenarios are models
Scenarios are sets of indicators
Scenarios are tools
Scenarios are art
What are Scenarios ?

10.  Case study which helps us understand how the scenario-building process can
help to make decisions.
 One business that has had success using it is Smith& Hawken, a mail-order
marketer of top quality garden implements made by Bull-dog tools of U.K.
 This case shows the end results of a lot of trench work that we will learn to do.
 3 Possible scenarios
 First one- Envisioned a world of high economic growth fueled by
consumption & materialism. Further it presumed that government and
business would find the right solutions for major social problems. In other
words, the world would continue along its present track and things would
get better and better
 Second one- Scenario envisioned economic depression. Third world
famine, environmental crisis, and vanishing natural resources, Thinking
of the worst helped S & H determine if it could weather hard times
 Third one- Imagined fundamental shift in western cultural mores that
would lead people to live in harmony with the environment. Natural foods
would become more popular, and values would switch from materialism
to inner growth. Quality of life would dominate the social agenda.
Scenarios

11. Scenarios & Impact

12.  Each scenario showed a strong market for garden tools, even after factoring in
other concerns, such as the strength of the dollar ( which would affect profit
margins on imported tools).
 Moreover, the futurists figured selling by mail instead of through retail stores
made more sense because
 Consumers in the more-of-the same-but- better scenario would be too
busy to shop in person
 Capital & inventory- intensive retail stores would have trouble surviving in
depression scenario
 Mail order sales made good sense for Whole Earth Catalogue oriented
consumers in the socio- transformation scenario.
 So what really happened ?
 All 3 versions of USA emerged in the 1980s.
 Yuppies lived side-by-side with the working poor & new ages- so all 3
scenarios were somewhat correct.
 S & H sold $ 200,000 worth of tools the first year & $ 1 million a year
within 3 years.
 Today the company does $ 50 million annually
Outcome

13.  They gathered information from many sources.
 Discover – A Popular science magazine that is sometimes first to report a
significant development or event
 The Economist- One of the best sources of information about what is happening
globally. A mainstream publication that covers speculative & imaginative issues
especially well.
 Foreign Affairs- The mainstream journal of international relations.
 Future survey- A newsletter with interesting abstracts of books summaries &
comments on magazine articles.
 Granta- Contains unusually perceptive high-quality writing & thinking.
 Harper’s- Good surveying the fringes because it culls materials from unusual
sources.
 New options- Reports on the pulse of future American politics.
 New Scientist- A British publication that often reports the first news of important
scientific discoveries. Has a good grasp of the policy implications of new
technologies.
 Omni- A mainstream bonding of science & science fiction.
 Scientific American- New ideas that are moving into mainstream
 Technology review- Insightful views on the social consequences of new technology
A Scenario Builder’s Reading List

14.  This Case study which helps us understand how the scenario-
building process can help to make decisions.
 One business that has had success using it is Smith& Hawken,
a mail-order marketer of top quality garden implements made by
Bull-dog tools of U.K.
 Peter Schwartz & his team futurists first isolated the all important
decisions to be made:
 What would lead to a successful garden-tool business ,
especially since others had failed ?
 As they researched the question, other concerns- upon which
their success hinged- emerged ;
 What might happen to future customers & suppliers?
 How much could they afford?
 What should tools cost ?
Scenarios Building Blocks

15.  They simultaneously examined the key factors that would affect their
decisions.
 For instance, they realized that the size of the target market- the baby
boom generation- was certain ( a pre-determined element).
 But critical uncertainties included the range of the boomers economic
opportunity.
 How many could afford to buy houses?
 What kind would they buy?
 Was quality important ?
 Would they pay for it ?
 Would many garden or not?
 The most significant uncertainty, they concluded, was the future of the
economy, so they built their scenarios around 3 plots
 3 Plots- Fast growing national wealth, Depression and a prosperous
though culturally different landscape
Scenarios Building Blocks

16.  Scenario building is an art, nor a science, and it is not
possible to create scenarios with recipe.
 It is important to move through a process several times
refining our decisions, doing more research, digging for more
key elements, and rehearsing the implications of events
again.
 The start will be with the plot line ( If I want this to happen,
what decisions will I probably have to make ?).
 Some case start with some new or impending discovery and
try to project its effects (“ If this really happens, what
scenarios could it set in motion?”)
 No matter the method, scenario building is the best way to
make sense out of ambiguity & disorder.
Scenarios Building Blocks

18. Uncovering the Decision
 Pay attention to those situations that make you
uncomfortable or that you do not understand
 Articulate the decisions you need to make; make the
process of decision making conscious
 Examine your "mind-set" (your attitudes, outlook, etc.)
and deliberately examine the possibilities (pitfalls and
opportunities) of other outlooks
 Refine the focus by considering (and moving back and
forth between) narrow questions related to a specific
situation and broad ones related to the world at large
(otherwise you might develop a scenario for a focused
situation and discover it is affected by much larger
issues)

20.  The future is so uncertain that it makes people anxious. They don’t
know what decisions to make now. To equip yourself to make
informed choices in this continually shifting world, use scenarios.
 A scenario isn’t a prediction. No one can know the future with
certainty, and if you think you do, you’re sure to be wrong.
 That is why the process of “scenario planning” calls for developing
challenging stories about a number of possible futures.
 First, gather the best data available from a broad range of sources.
Include information and perspectives that are just appearing on the
horizon and on the fringes of society.
 Use the data to generate several divergent yet plausible scenarios,
each incorporating different assumptions about the nature of the
changes your organization will face.
 This lets you examine which futures might unfold and anticipate and
rehearse possible responses.
A Tool for all futures-Scenarios- (1/3)

21.  Whether you’re starting a small business or running a multinational
company, you need to ask the same kinds of questions about
possible futures that may affect you.
 Some people will be better at building scenarios than others, at
least at the start, but everyone can do it, and can build more skill
with training and practice.
 It’s an innate human ability.
 Some neuroscientists argue that projecting action into the future is
built into humans on the evolutionary level.
 Primitive hunters had to anticipate how prey would move so they
could throw weapons accurately.
 If you’re trained in a “deterministic” discipline, such as accounting,
you’ll find scenario building harder at first than someone like an
anthropologist who’s trained to shift cultural frames. You’ll get better
at generating scenarios if you encourage your imagination (and
then temper it with realism).
A Tool for all futures-Scenarios-( 2/3 )

22.  Scenarios are presented as stories, not as expositions or lists of
facts, because stories play a special part in the human psyche.
 This “old way of organizing knowledge” has been downplayed in the
last few hundred years, but it’s especially apt for scenario
construction.
 Stories assemble information into an order that has meaning.
Stories can have multiple plot lines, and involve more than one
character and point of view, enabling the scenario planner to
imagine numerous possible futures. Scenarios can function as
“myths of the future.
 Just as myths of the past told people where they came from and
contemporary myths communicate a community’s shared identity,
so scenarios offer emotionally resonant visions of what could be.
Stories add substance to information, beyond recitations of facts.
 These verbal simulations engage the heart as well as the mind
A Tool for all futures-Scenarios-( 3/3 )

24.  Every choice is shaped by “mental maps,” people’s assumptions
about the nature of the world, what could happen & what is likely to
happen.
 Most people aren’t aware of the content of their mental maps or how
deeply these maps shape how they collect & interpret information.
 Start by making your maps visible.
 Consider what you think – or hope – the future will be like.
 Practice seeing the world systemically & from different perspectives.
 Imagine an optimistic future:
 What is the best thing that could happen?
 What events or trends would logically take you there?
 In a pessimistic future, what could go wrong?
 How might that unfold? Imagine a “status quo” future, essentially
a continuation of present trends. Which future is closest to how
you habitually view the world?
Principals of Scenario Construction- ( 1/4 )

25.  Now play with your futures. Take an element of your
pessimistic future, like overpopulation; ask if there is any way
it could become positive.
 How would that change the future?
 Compare your current assumptions and future images to
those you had last year or last week.
 How have your mental models changed?
 Carry the practice of consciously viewing the world through a
specific perspective from the personal realm to the
organizational.
 Once you identify your mind-set, expand it by channeling “a
constant stream of rich, diverse and thought-provoking” data
into your life.
Principals of Scenario Construction- ( 2/4)

26. Habitually research these general categories
 “Science and technology”
 These, more than any factors, shape the future. Politics & world
power may change, but a scientific innovation that’s unleashed on the
world cannot be taken back.
 Its impact is permanent & absolute. Pay special attention to new
developments that could change lives & spur businesses.
 You may find them coming from such fields as Physics, Bio-
Technology, Computer science, Ecology, Microbiology & Engineering
 Perception-shaping events
 Carbon dioxide levels have been increasing in the atmosphere since
early 1970s.
 They were ignored, however, until one hot summer day in 1988 when
NASA meteorologist James Hanson testified before congress on how
pollution would cause long-term climate changes.
 This event made global warming a major issue, because now it was
perceived to be a problem.
Information-Hunting & Gathering

27.  Perception-shaping events -continued
 How can you recognize a perception-shaping event?
 By watching how society reacts to it.
 Does it touch a responsive chord?
 If the response is especially deep & wide, the event may
change the public’s basic belief & priorities.
 Music
 Music reveals what people are thinking & feeling.
 In 1964, for example, Bod Dylan’s music was a harbinger of
political events that occurred in 1968. Elvis Presley’s 1956
debut foretold the emergence of an international community of
your.
 While you may think popular music affects only kids, those kids
are scattered all over the world, and the music they embrace
will affect them for the rest of their lives.
Information-Hunting & Gathering

28.  Fringes
 Scenario builders, like horses, have superior peripheral vision.
 They train themselves to look at the world as horses do because new knowledge
develops at the fringes where thinkers have more freedom to let their
imaginations roam
 Great innovators often come from the fringes.
 Albert Einstein was a paten clerk in Geneva who couldn’t get a teaching job.
Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak, co-founders of Apple computer, had their
respective roots in Eastern Mysticism and the hacker subculture of the computer
world.
 Take time to explore fringe areas. Attend off-beat lectures, read unconventional
magazines , go to a rap concert; keep your radar out for attitudes & ideas that are
likely to blend into the mainstream as time goes by.
 For E.g., conservationist & solar power disciple Amory Lovins argued in the mid
1970s that improved technology would reduce energy consumption despite an
expanding economy. Most of the energy industry wrote him off as an extremist,
but Royal Dutch/Shell encouraged him to push ideas further.
 The result? Shell was one of few energy companies that foresaw a collapse in
the price of oil.
Information-Hunting & Gathering

29.  Although everyone has an idea about where to gather information, you
might consider looking to some of the following sources
 Remarkable people
 Unconventional thinkers like Amory Lovins can be an excellent source
of scenario- building information
 You usually won’t find such people mentioned in the New York times,
however , and they are often found in strange places or roles.
 They are not necessarily wild-eyed zealots, either.
 Some lead very conventional lives. It is their thinking that makes them
unorthodox.
 How can you contact remarkable people with unusual insights ?
 Read their articles & books and try to meet them and interview .
 Take inter-disciplinary courses and attend meetings and conferences
that will bring you into the orbit of unusual thinkers.
 As you do so, remember to evaluate such people by how often they
nudge you to look at something in a fresh light.
Information-Hunting & Gathering- Where to look for ?

30.  Sources of Surprise
 Take time to read outside your usual areas of interests
 Stick bookmarks in promising place, then graze the marked passages later.
 Read across as many disciplines, subjects and social strata as possible.
 Seek & embrace perceptions that are at odds with your won.
 Filters
 Every busy executive must have a set of filters to separate irrelevant from useful
information.
 Filtering is an important skill, because without it you will drown in a sea of data. Be
Selective.
 Identify sources- like magazines editors ( See slide no.13) that can feed you valuable
material clearly & concisely.
 For e.g. , the US congress office of technology assessments monitors and interprets
information & produces inexpensive reports from the Government printing office.
 It is like having a cut-rate think tank at your disposal. University symposia, National
Radio & CNN are additional filters that capture the texture of our times.
 Watch too, the filter in yourself. If any idea or perception makes you uncomfortable,
identify what troubles you.
 Such reactions can throw light on otherwise invisible biases.
Information-Hunting & Gathering- Where to look for ?

31.  Expose yourself to Challenging Environments
 Travel is good way to experience unfamiliarity, because you are
force to adapt an alien point of view.
 You have to ask questions about why people live the way they do
and what forces created their relationships, goals and values.
 It is especially beneficial to visit countries that shock western
sensibilities & challenge your opinion of what is ordinary.
 Network Sensibilities
 Computer networking is an excellent high-tech way to share
knowledge, the only kind of wealth that multiplies when you give it
away.
 Joining a computer network enables you to reach people efficiently,
question dozen of them simultaneously and locate experts in any
field.
 You won’t see them personally, but you will see their ideas & words.
 Computer networkers now number in millions worldwide.
Information-Hunting & Gathering- Where to look for ?

33.  The process of building scenarios starts with looking for driving forces, the
forces that influence the outcome of the events.
 Take another look at the decision you have to make & look for the driving
forces that are critical to that decision.
 Trust your instincts.
 Compose scenarios in teams since driving forces may be obvious to one
person but hidden to another (i.e., brainstorm together).
 Run through familiar categories of driving forces: society, technology,
economics, politics, environment.
 Next sort through the driving forces to decide which are significant and
which are irrelevant.
 Then uncover the "predetermined elements" (which are almost certain no
matter what scenario) and the "critical uncertainties" (which scenario
planners seek out in order to prepare for).
 “Critical uncertainties are intimately related to predetermined elements.”
You find them by questioning your assumptions about predetermined
elements: what might cause...?
Creating Scenario Building Blocks

34. When you build a set of scenarios, incorporate three essential interacting
components:
 “Driving forces” T
 These dominant factors in the external environment are often beyond
your control but they shape the broader business environment within
which you operate.
 Identify the core question you want to answer, for example, whether
you should start a business or drill for oil.
 Review all the major forces that will shape your actions. You’ll see
some of them immediately, almost instinctively, but – since people
have blind spots – you could miss others, so build your scenarios with
a team.
 Work systematically through social influences, technological factors,
economic and political influences, and environmental trends.
 These categories manifest differently in every business, even in every
decision, but always take them into account.
Interacting Components

35.  “Predetermined elements”
 These scenario factors will remain the same, no matter which future
unfolds.
 To find them, look at “Slow-changing phenomena,” such as the rate of
population change. Note constraining factors, for example, the fact that
Japan has a large population but limited land, or that China’s continued
growth will be affected by water availability. Look at factors “in the
pipeline,” such as demographic bulges, like people who are retiring.
 Be aware of “inevitable collisions,” like the clash between the public’s
opposition to taxes and its demand for services.
“Critical uncertainties”
 These are factors whose outcomes are unpredictable, but that are most
likely to shape your scenarios by changing their nature or direction.
 For example, demographers basically know how many young people will
enter the U.S. workforce in the next ten years (a predetermined element),
but companies don’t really know the impact of their attitudes toward work,
benefits and careers, and how those attitudes might intersect with new
technologies or economic conditions.
Interacting Components

36. “Critical uncertainties”- Cont. ..
 Uncertainties are part of every scenario.
 They are intimately related to predetermined elements, & you will find them by
questioning your assumptions about those elements.
 For instance
 Traffic gridlock is a real problem in some cities- say New York,
 If the grid lock becomes more widespread, could a mass change of habits
occur?
 Would business collectively move to flex time to relieve the burden on the
public transportation?
 Would they allow telecommuting ?
 Would real estate price drop low enough so that people could move closer
to work or might car phones and fax machines turn gridlocked cars into
portable offices?
 Two gridlock scenarios are possible
 Cities become paralyzed
 Commuting undergo a transformation
Interacting Components

37.  Scenarios describe how driving forces might behave in the future based on how
they behaved in the past.
 These forces may act differently in the future, however, scenarios explore two or
three alternatives based on plots that are most worth considering
 3 main plots appear often in today’s world, and you should consider them in every
set of scenarios.
 Winners & Losers
 Common plot
 Only one winning candidate
 Winners-& -Losers plots lead to covert but practical alliances
 Challenge & Response
 Name comes from Script writing
 Adventure stories in which a hero faces one unexpected test after
another
 Each time the tested person emerges different from the way he or she
was before.
 In a business context, you might draw scenarios that include
environmental, financial or social challenges
Building a Plot

38.  Evolution
 Evolutionary plots always involve changes in one direction –
usually either growth or decline
 These changes tend to be biological
 They sprout slowly, ripen and then burst upon the world.
 They are hard to spot unless you are attuned to them because they
happen so slowly.
 Common evolutionary plot in today’s world involves technology &
its myriad effects.
 Revolution though rare and hard to predict, is also a valuable plot
of envision.
 It characterizes a sudden change that, like an earthquake, change
the landscape.
 The emergence of OPEC as a political force was a revolution, as
was the fall of the Berlin wall.
Building a Plot

40.  Using Scenarios is rehearsing the future.
 You don’t know ahead of time which scenario will take place, so you
prepare for all scenarios & train yourself to look for one or two small
details that allow you to recognize which is taking place.
 Even the most unlikely events should be prepared for if the consequences
are great enough.
 You must start by questioning your belief in the inevitability of more of the
same
 The point of scenario-planning is to help suspend disbelief in all the
futures, to allow us to think that any one of them might take place
 Then you can prepare for what you don't think is going to happen
 You need multiple scenarios, so by the end you understand the
implications of each possible future (and have literally rehearsed
them)
 Work out warning signals in advance (less open to interpretation that way)
– they help you decide which scenario is coming to pass and can also be
used as warning signs to learn sensitivity to change
Rehearsing the Future

41.  Names of scenarios carry "a lot of freight" - try to choose
the name so that it condenses the story's essence into a
few words (e.g. “Humpty Dumpty", "the Official Future", "My
Worst Nightmare", "Johnny Appleseed")
 Go back to old scenarios a year later – it takes years of
practice to do scenario planning, so it's helpful to go back to
see if it was effective
 Did it change behavior?
 Did you do the right thing?
 Scenarios create a shared and powerful language
Rehearsing the Future

43.  Create a Hospitable Climate - do what you can to make the
organizational culture welcome diverse points of view and
lively discussion
 Establish an Initial Group Including Key Decision Makers
and Outsiders – include most of the key decision makers,
selected "experts", and other who have valuable
perspectives; in large companies, there may be several sets
of strategic conversations going on at once
 Include Outside Information and Outside People - bring in
people from the outside; a purely internal conversation will
rarely be able to achieve break-through thinking
 Look Ahead Far in Advance of Decisions - strategic
conversations should occur long before the moment of
decision (when the appearance of short-term factors make
reflection more difficult)
How to hold a Strategic Conversation

44.  Begin by Looking at the Present and Past - look at what has
happened in the past, talk about ways you have traditionally dealt
with change, look at trends going on around you, ask questions,
elicit opinions, and determine what you ought to know more about.
 Conduct Preliminary Scenario Work in Smaller Groups - start
and continue strategic conversations in large meetings with key
players but also have subgroups that study individual issues in
depth and report back, followed by vital and often heated
discussions with the large group.
 Playing Out the Conversation - structure a few workshops in
different areas to spread the messages, raise some questions,
raise hypotheses, form questions, set up new working groups.
 Living in a Permanent Strategic Conversation - strategic
conversations never end; they must move into different venues
and become the model for discourse.
How to hold a Strategic Conversation

46. Eight Steps Scenario Building
Step-1
Step-2
Step-3
Step-4
Step-5 Step-6
Step-7 Step-8

47.  Step One- Identify Focal issue or Decision
 Start with a specific decision or issue, then build out toward the environment.
 What will decision makers in your company be in thinking hardest about in
the near future?
 What decisions will have a long-term influence on your company’s fortunes?
 For E.g. , an auto maker may want to see scenarios built around changes in
energy prices.
 A forest products company might want to look at scenarios based on different
numbers of new housing starts.
 Whatever your job or industry, you can usually identify the focal issue or key
decision by asking yourself one simple question: What keeps me awake at
night?
 Step Two – List key factors in your local environment
 These will affect the success or failure of your decision.
 They might include, for example, facts about Customers, Suppliers or
Competitors.
 They are the factors that decision makers will want to know when making key
choices
Eight Steps Scenario Building -1/5

48.  Step three- List driving forces
 These are trends in the macro-environment that affect step two’s key factors.
 They are the forces behind the key factors, and they may stem from social,
economic, political, environmental, or technological forces.
 Some will be predetermined ( like demographics); others will be highly uncertain (
like public opinion). Some research to define these driving forces.
 Where is technology leading us ?
 What if the rate of inflation rises ?
 Look at major trends and trends about to break .
 Step four – Rank key factors & driving trends
 Use two criteria here
 First ask how important they are to the success of step one’s focus or decision.
 Second , estimate the degree of uncertainty surrounding these factors & trends.
 The point is to identify the two or three factors or trends that are most important
and most uncertain.
 Remember that your scenarios cannot differ over predetermined elements that will
exist come hell or high water.
 The inevitable aging of the baby boomers, for e.g. , is an absolute certainty in any
scenario.
Eight Steps Scenario Building-2/5

49.  Step Five- Select the Pertinent scenario Logics
 The results of your ranking exercise becomes the axes along which
you will build different scenarios.
 Your goal is to end up with handful of scenario ‘drivers’ whose
differences make a difference to decision-makers.
 For auto makers, they may include the level of fuel prices and
protectionist sentiment in Congress ( and the possible variations in
each) .
 Keep these fundamental differences to a minimum because too many
scenarios based on too many uncertainties will confuse your
audience.
 The plot you control events may better define the logic of your
scenario that its drivers . The challenge is to identify the plot that
 Best capture the situation’s dynamics
 Communicates the point effectively.
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50.  Step Six- Flesh out your scenarios
Return to the lists of key factors and trends you identified in steps two &
three, give each one some attention in each scenario, then weave the
pieces together to form a story.
 How would the world get from here to there?
 What events might be required to make the end point of each scenario
plausible ?
 Step Seven- Develop Implications
 Once you have fleshed out your scenarios, return to the focal issue or
decision and rehearse the future.
 How does the decision look in each case ?
 What vulnerabilities do your scenarios reveal?
 Does your decision look strong in all of them, or only in one or two ?
 A decision that looks good in only one scenario is a better- company
move, especially if you cannot control the likelihood of the scenario
coming to pass.
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51.  Step Eight- Selecting leading indicators
 It is worth investing the time to identify a few indicators to
monitor as time goes by.
 If you select these signposts carefully and imaginatively ,
your company will have a jump on your competition in
knowing what the future holds and how it is likely to affect
your strategies & decisions
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53.  The future is uncertain, but you can use scenarios to prepare for it.
 Scenarios articulate possible futures in story form to help you make
better decisions today.
 Scenarios are not predictions. They are stories that stretch your thinking
about what could happen.
 Anyone can build scenarios; everyone gets better with practice.
 To build better scenarios, expand your mind-set and seek data from
many sources.
 In any scenario, look at the driving forces, the factors that won’t change
and the key areas of uncertainty.
 All good scenarios are built around an organizing logic or “plot.”
 Work as a team to build a set of scenarios. Then test your decision or
options within each one.
 Work through the implications each scenario has for areas that concern
you.
 Identify and look out for events that will signal which scenario is coming
true
Take-Aways

54. Mail your comments to ramaddster@gmail.com