SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 164
Download to read offline
© Jurgen Appelo  version 2  management30.com
Complexity Thinking
or Systems Thinking ++ ?
“The search for simple –if not simpleminded–
solutions to complex problems is a consequence of
the inability to deal effectively with complexity.”
– Russell L. Ackoff
Jurgen Appelo
writer, speaker,
trainer, entrepreneur...
www.jurgenappelo.com
story
What happens when
you go to a bar full of
systems thinkers and
complexity researchers
Russell L. Ackoff
Ralph Stacey Dave Snowden
Donella H. Meadows
W. Edwards Deming
Peter M. Senge
Peter F. Drucker
Peter Checkland Gerald M. Weinberg
John H. Holland
Michael C. Jackson
John Seddon Max Boisot
“What exactly is
the bar?”
“Are the people
here part of the
bar?”
“Is the beer part
of the bar?”
“If we drink the beer, is
it still part of the bar?”
“What if my beer and
I go outside?”
“Is the bar a
system?”
“What is the
purpose of the
bar?”
Reductionism
Holism
Complexity Theory
Models
Complexity Thinking
Example
Final words
We converse about abstractions
Abstractions are imperfect and incomplete.
It is a form of interaction
The activity of abstracting is basically a form
of interaction between people in which they
simplify the complexity of their own ordinary,
everyday interactions […] in an effort to make
meaning of what they are doing […].
– Ralph Stacey
Complexity and Organizational Reality
To make sense of the world
Sense-making is the way that humans
choose between multiple possible explanations
of sensory input.
– Dave Snowden
http://kwork.org/Stars/Snowden/snowden3.html#Simplicity
reductionism
re·duc·tion·ism noun ri-ˈdək-shə-ˌni-zəm
– explanation of complex life-science processes and
phenomena in terms of the laws of physics and
chemistry
– a procedure or theory that reduces complex data
and phenomena to simple terms
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/reductionism
The bar is... the building,
inventory, employees,
guests, some interaction,
etc...
reductionism
A problem is that people have become addicted
to the successes of reductionism.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductionism
“Left-brain” thinking
All system theories were created by engineers
and scientists (“left-brainers”).
Analysis in management
This systems movement […] has come to
form the foundation of today’s dominant
management discourse, so importing the
engineer’s notion of control into understanding
human activity.
– Ralph Stacey
Complexity and Organizational Reality
Problem: Dehumanization
Cold numbers in spreadsheets
Problem: Objectivation
“Designing” human interaction
Problem: Alienation
Instructions from ivory towers
Problem: Prediction
“Controlling” the future
Problem: Attribution
Blaming people for problems
• Problem: Dehumanization
• Problem: Objectivization
• Problem: Alienation
• Problem: Prediction
• Problem: Attribution
This list of five problems is my abstraction,
and my attempt at sense-making!
Reductionism
Holism
Complexity Theory
Models
Complexity Thinking
Example
Final words
Revenge for “right-brainers”
Some people have suggested more holistic
approaches.
See the whole system
Living systems have integrity. Their
character depends on the whole. The same is
true for organizations.
– Peter M. Senge
The Fifth Discipline
Greater than the sum of the parts
The enterprise must be a genuine whole:
greater than the sum of its parts, with its output
larger than the sum of all inputs.
– Peter F. Drucker
Management
Synthesis, not analysis
Analysis is only one way of thinking;
synthesis is another. [...] In analysis, something
that we want to understand is first taken apart.
In synthesis, that which we want to understand
is first identified as part of one or more larger
systems.
– Russell L. Ackoff
Recreating the Corporation
But what is the whole
Problem: Impossible
If everything is connected to everything,
what is the “whole”?
Problem: Unscientific
new age fluffy bunnies
– Dave Snowden
http://km4meu.wordpress.com/2011/09/14/radical-ideals-and-fluffy-bunnies/
An unquestioned assumption
By formulating a research aim to uncover
the fundamental characteristics of systems of
various kinds, we were making the
unquestioned assumption that the world
contained such systems.
– Peter Checkland
Systems Thinking, Systems Practice
Actually, there are no systems
Where to draw a boundary around a
system depends on the questions we want to
ask.
– Donella H. Meadows
Thinking in Systems
There are perspectives
A system is a way of looking at the world.
– Gerald M. Weinberg
Introduction to General Systems Thinking
Systems depend on context
The boundaries of systems keep shifting,
using reductionism and holism.
How much to abstract or extend depends on
what you want to understand.
No radical holism/reductionism
Complexity theory does not embrace the
radical holism of systems theory, the notion that
everything matters and everything has to be
taken into account.
– Steve Phelan
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
Reductionism
Holism
Complexity Theory
Models
Complexity Thinking
Example
Final words
Brains, bacteria, immune systems, the Internet,
countries, gardens, cities, beehives…
They’re all complex adaptive systems.
A team is a complex adaptive system (CAS), because it
consists of parts (people) that form a system (team),
and the system shows complex behavior while it keeps
adapting to a changing environment.
One perspective
The properties of complex adaptive systems are:
• Aggregation
• Nonlinearity
• Flows
• Diversity
– John H. Holland
Hidden Order
Another perspective
There are six notions in complexity theory:
• Sensitivity to initial conditions (butterfly effect)
• Strange attractors (unpredictability)
• Self-similarity (fractals)
• Self-organization (distributed control)
• The edge of chaos (emergence)
• Fitness landscapes (continuous improvement)
– Michael C. Jackson
Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers
And it evolved like this...
– Jeffrey Goldstein
Complexity and the Nexus of Leadership
Or like this...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Complex_systems_organizational_map.jpg
Or like this...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jurgenappelo/4948963883/
Of course, these are all just abstractions...
Complexity theory itself is complex
Papers are being posted on the Web long
before publication and there is rapid movement
of what could be called precodified or
protocodified knowledge. […] I am not saying
whether this is good or bad; I am merely
suggesting that this is one of the characteristics
affecting the evolution of complexity sciences.
– Max Boisot
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
Complexity theory is about change
Complexity theory is not a cohesive theory.
It is not one equation. It is really a collection of
ideas about the concept of change in
complex adaptive systems […]. It talks about the
dynamics of change in a system.
– Irene Sanders
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
People and relationships
We found that this new science leads to a
new theory of business that places people and
relationships […] into dramatic relief.
– Roger Lewin, Birute Regine
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
And about hype
I think the next century will be the century
of complexity.
– Stephen Hawking
San Jose Mercury News, 23 January 2000
And about unification
We can justifiably think of Complexity as a
sort of umbrella science – or even the Science of
all Sciences.
– Neil Johnson
Simply Complexity
But who wants unification?
Scholars […] have been understandably
reluctant to see their pet subject as simply one
more example of some broader 'general
system'!
– Peter Checkland
Systems Thinking, Systems Practice
No consensus, no unification
Perhaps because the field has attracted
researchers from a wide diversity of home
disciplines, there is no consensus as to how
to define, measure, describe, or interpret
"complexity."
– Steve Maguire
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
Complexity theory explains why complex
problems need multiple perspectives.
It is successful in explaining its own failure at
being one theory!
But complexity is growing
Accelerating economic and social change in
the global economy, the consequent imperative
for ever faster innovation, the emergence of
global networks of partners, […] the
multiplication of media channels, and
burgeoning diversity in both the workplace and
marketplace.
– Steve Denning
Radical Management
And complicated is not complex
Analysis works in complicated cases (plic in
complicated means "fold"), but the
interweavings (plex) of the complex do not yield
to reductionist analysis or to a concentration on
details.
– Michael L. Lissack
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
You can try to simplify a system to make it understandable
But you cannot linearize the system to make it predictable
Complicated vs. Complex is itself is reductionism
(and a false dichotomy)!
Some systems can be seen as both complicated
and complex.
This is all great, but
how do we use all
these ideas about
complexity
The Scientific Method
The traditional approach...
1. Observations
2. Hypotheses
3. Predictions
4. Experiments
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method
Houston, we have a problem
This makes the standard method of
accumulating evidence highly problematic,
because it is based on the assumption of
repetitive events. Evidence is accumulated by
observing repetitions in traditional science but
rather different notions of evidence need to be
developed for the complexity sciences.
– Ralph Stacey
Complexity and Organizational Reality
Complexity invalidates prediction!
The crucial problem which science faces is
its ability to cope with complexity.
– Peter Checkland
Systems Thinking, Systems Practice
Complexity theory predicts that we cannot rely
on predictions.
That doesn’t seem
very helpful.
Is there anything
else we can do
Reductionism
Holism
Complexity Theory
Models
Complexity Thinking
Example
Final words
http://www.flickr.com/photos/hey__paul/6223650676/
What’s
this?
model
mod·el noun ˈmä-dəl
– a usually miniature representation of something
– a description or analogy used to help visualize
something (as an atom) that cannot be directly
observed
– a system of postulates, data, and inferences
presented as a mathematical description of an
entity or state of affairs
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/model
We use models for two reasons
Confirmatory models: prediction & control
Exploratory models: insight & understanding
– Steve Phelan
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
We’ll focus on exploratory models
Confirmatory models are impossible to make in
complexity theory. But we can use exploratory
models to aid in sense-making.
Making sense of improvement
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PDCA
http://gumption.typepad.com/blog/entrepreneuria/
Making sense of learning
Shu
Ha
Ri
Beginner
Advanced Beginner
Competent
Proficient
Expert
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuhari
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreyfus_model_of_skill_acquisition
Making sense of complexity
Ralph Stacey Dave Snowden
There’s only 1 criterion for models
Does the model help people to make sense of
the world (insight and understanding)?
Of course, it requires a balance
How detailed (complicated) will you make the
model to make it useful?
The usefulness of a model depends on the
complexity of the mind and of the environment.
A simple model of London
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_FHHhq9JdAXg/TIUalCWz_zI/AAAAAAAAAUg/C0CTOtV6iiw/s1600/cowshed-spasmap-aw8-low+res.jpg
A complicated model of London
http://www.bestcitymaps.com/citymaps/images/london.jpg
http://effectiveagiledev.com/AgileTraining/ScrumImplementationWorkshop/tabid/74/Default.aspx
A simple model for projects
http://wyzsadvies.blogspot.com/2010/08/project-beheer-en-de-papierwinkel.html
A complicated model for projects
A simple model for managers
– Jurgen Appelo
Management 3.0
A complicated model for managers
– Dan Levinthal
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
Models are never perfect
All models wrong, some are useful.
– George Box
Usefulness is context-dependent. It depends
on the people and their environment.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/miguelpdl/4356975474/
What’s
this?
metaphor
met·a·phor noun ˈme-tə-ˌfȯr also -fər
– a figure of speech in which a word or phrase
literally denoting one kind of object or idea is used
in place of another to suggest a likeness
or analogy between them
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/metaphor
Metaphors in science
• Butterfy Effect
• Edge of Chaos
• Survival of the Fittest
Metaphors are fuzzy but effective models.
Metaphors in management
organizations as machines;•
organizations as organisms;•
organizations as brains;•
organizations as flux and transformation;•
organizations as cultures;•
organizations as political systems;•
organizations as psychic prisons;•
organizations as instruments of domination;•
organizations as carnivals• .
– Michael C. Jackson
Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers
Organizations as machines
Machine images pervade management
jargon. We have managers who “run” a
company, much the way you would run a
machine. We have the “owners” of the
company, which is perfectly appropriate
terminology for a machine but somewhat
problematic when applied to a human
community. And of course there are leaders
who “drive change.”
– Peter M. Senge
The Fifth Discipline
Danger of metaphors
Reminiscence syndrome
Jumping to conclusions because things look “the same”
– Jack Cowan
Example: inventory as waste
The metaphor of inventory applied to
knowledge work can be useful, but it fails fast.
It leads people to draw conclusions about
“waste” that make no sense (to me).
Useful question: when do they fail?
Metaphors are the weakest of all models.
They fail fast.
Science likes mathematical models.
They fail much later.
A key point of complexity theory
Multiple weak models can make just as much
sense as one strong model. (And it’s certainly
better than no models.)
In the end all models fail.
This point makes it clear you also need other
people’s views on complexity thinking.
A single perspective is not enough!
What’s this?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/adactio/2634586376/
mathematics
math·e·mat·ics noun ˌmath-ˈma-tiks, ˌma-thə-
– the science of numbers and their operations,
interrelations, combinations, generalizations, and
abstractions and of space configurations and their
structure, measurement, transformations, and
generalizations
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/mathematics
Scientific management (Taylorism)
The earliest attempt at applying mathematics to
management of organizations.
• Improving efficiency
• Reducing variation
• Increasing output
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_management
What’s
this?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/inacentaurdump/2604198505/
simulation
sim·u·la·tion noun ˌsim-yə-ˈlā-shən
– the imitative representation of the functioning of
one system or process by means of the functioning
of another
– examination of a problem often not subject to
direct experimentation by means of a simulating
device
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/simulation
The heart of complexity theory
At the heart of complexity theory are these
formal models that utilize new techniques in
artificial intelligence to motivate artificial
agents. Behind them are some heavy-duty
mathematics and computer science.
– Steve Phelan
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
Problem: prediction & control
For systems dynamics thinkers, the aim is to
identify leverage points for interventions that
will enable them to identify where, when and
how to initiate change and so stay in control.
However, the ability to do this in a system that is
sensitive to tiny changes is called into question.
That obviously has serious implications for the
human ability to stay ‘in control’.
– Ralph Stacey
Complexity and Organizational Reality
What’s
this?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mikebaird/3464803900/
pattern
pat·tern noun ˈpa-tərn
– a form or model proposed for imitation
– a reliable sample of traits, acts, tendencies, or other
observable characteristics of a person, group, or
institution
– a discernible coherent system based on the
intended interrelationship of component parts
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pattern
Causal Loop Diagrams
Seeking
patterns
Archetype: Shifting the burden
Shifting the burden, dependence, and
addiction arise when a solution to a systemic
problem reduces (or disguises) the symptoms,
but does nothing to solve the underlying
problem.
– Donella H. Meadows
Thinking in Systems
Archetype: Shifting problems
Solutions that merely shift problems from
one part of a system to another often go
undetected because, unlike the rug merchant,
those who “solved” the first problem are
different from those who inherit the new
problem.
– Peter M. Senge
The Fifth Discipline
Archetype: The easy way out
We all find comfort applying familiar
solutions to problems, sticking to what we know
best.
– Peter M. Senge
The Fifth Discipline
Problem : objectivation
Consider how this systems thinking
compares with the earlier framework of
scientific management. The manager continues
to be equated with the natural scientist, the
objective observer, and just as the scientist is
concerned with a natural phenomenon, so the
manager is concerned with an organization.
– Ralph Stacey
Complexity and Organizational Reality
Problem : objectivation
Hard systems thinking is unable to deal
satisfactorily with multiple perceptions of
reality. […] Different stakeholders will have
diverse opinions about the nature of the system
they are involved with and about its proper
purposes.
– Michael C. Jackson
Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers
So, how should
we use those
models in a
social system
Reductionism
Holism
Complexity Theory
Models
Complexity Thinking
Example
Final words
“Soft Systems Thinking”
– Michael C. Jackson
Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers
“Soft Complexity”
Systems theory ->
Hard systems thinking
Soft systems thinking
Complexity theory ->
Hard complexity
Soft complexity
– Steve Maguire
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
“Social Complexity”
– Dave Snowden
http://emergentpublications.com/ECO/ECO_other/Issue_6_1-2_19_FM.pdf
Complexity Thinking
(as I see it)
1) Address complexity with complexity
The complexity of a system must be
adequate to the complexity of the environment
that it finds itself in.
– Max Boisot
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
The human mind is more complex than tools
Use stories, metaphors, pictures…
Law of Requisite Variety
If a system is to be stable the number of
states of its control mechanism must be greater
than or equal to the number of states in the
system being controlled.
– William Ross Ashby
Law of Requisite Variety
Ashby's law of requisite variety is as
important to managers as Einstein's law of
relativity to physicists.
– Anthony Stafford Beer
Designing Freedom
The Kanban board is complicated, not complex.
http://www.xqa.com.ar/visualmanagement/tag/kanban/
360 Degree evaluations
Narratives useful for sense-making
[Complexity thinkers] argue that complex
thinking is best accomplished in a narrative
mode of thinking rather than the propositional
thinking of the traditional scientific method. […]
Both involve recursiveness, nonlinearity,
sensitive dependency on initial conditions,
indeterminacy, unpredictability and emergence.
– Ralph Stacey
Complexity and Organizational Reality
https://picasaweb.google.com/114043888000663006020/ALENetworkWorldCafeAtXP2011Results
Consider stories, metaphors, pictures or video
Reduction vs. Absorption
Complexity reduction entails getting to
understand the complexity and acting on it
directly, including attempting environmental
enactment. Complexity absorption entails
creating options and risk-hedging strategies.
– Max Boisot
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
From reduction to absorption
Top-down rules reduce an organization’s
ability to deal with variety.
– John Seddon
Freedom from Command & Control
Insofar as the business environment is
becoming more complex, firms will need to shift
from the complexity-reducing strategies that
secured their success from the end of the
nineteenth until the end of the twentieth
century and place more stress on complexity-
absorbing ones-a shift away from bureaucracies
and toward fiefs, markets, and clans.
– Max Boisot
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
Reduction vs. Absorption
2) Use a diversity of models
Complexity itself is anti-methodology. It is
against "one size fits all."
– Tom Petzinger
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
Multiple weak models can make just as much
sense as one strong model.
Each systems approach is useful for certain
purposes and in particular types of problem
situation. A diversity of approaches, therefore,
heralds not a crisis but increased competence in
a variety of problem contexts.
– Michael C. Jackson
Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers
Multiple approaches
Different people and tools•
Different metaphors and analogies•
Different patterns and simulations•
Different methods and practices•
Multiple approaches
3) Assume dependence on context
Best practice is past practice.
– Dave Snowden
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
Retrospective coherence
Any evidence provided will depend on the
period selected and the place in which the
events are occurring as well as other aspects of
context. It follows that any relationship anyone
identifies between a management action and an
outcome could have far more to do with a
particular time and place where the sample is
selected than anything else.
– Ralph Stacey
Complexity and Organizational Reality
4) Assume subjectivity and coevolution
The observer influences the system, and the
system influences the observer.
The people form the culture, and the culture
forms the people.
Feedback changes
the whole system.
5) Anticipate, adapt, explore
Anticipation
Looking forward, proactive, imagining improvement
Adaptation
Looking backward, reactive, responding to change
Exploration
Trying things out, safe-to-fail experiments
6) Develop models in collaboration
Does the model help people to make sense of
the world (insight and understanding)?
1. Address complexity with complexity
2. Use a diversity of models
3. Assume dependence on context
4. Assume subjectivity and coevolution
5. Anticipate, adapt, and explore
6. Develop models in collaboration
Reductionism
Holism
Complexity Theory
Models
Complexity Thinking
Example
Final words
Address1. complexity with complexity
Use2. a diversity of models
Assume3. dependence on context
Assume4. subjectivity and coevolution
Anticipate, adapt, and explore5.
Develop6. models in collaboration
Does Scrum Match ComplexityThinking?
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
1. Address complexity with complexity
2. Use a diversity of models
3. Assume dependence on context
4. Assume subjectivity and coevolution
5. Anticipate, adapt, and explore
6. Develop models in collaboration
Example
What is the purpose of an organization?
It’s about the shareholder
Our aim is to be the biggest or second
biggest market player, and to return maximum
value to stockholders.
– Jack Welch (General Electric)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shareholder_value
It’s about the customer
There is only one valid definition of business
business purpose: to create a customer.
– Peter F. Drucker
Management
It’s about the employee
When we talk to our People, we proudly
draw a pyramid on the chalkboard and tell
them: You are at the top of the pyramid. You are
the most important person to us. You are our
most important Customer in terms of priority.
– Colleen Barrett (Southwest Airlines)
http://leaderchat.org/2011/01/10/customers-employees-and-shareholders%E2%80%94who-comes-first-in-your-organization/
It’s about the organization
The fundamental mission of an organization
is to survive.
– W. Warner Burke
Organization Change
It’s about the environment
The function of firms is to produce and
distribute wealth.
– Russell L. Ackoff
Recreating the Organization
It’s about all of them
Organizations must be viewed as social
systems serving three sets of purposes: their
own, those of their parts and those of the wider
systems of which they are part.
– Michael C. Jackson
Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers
It’s about none of them
A system has no purpose. Purpose is a
relation, not a thing to have.
– Gerald M. Weinberg
Introduction to General Systems Thinking
Well, it depends...
Purposes are deduced from behavior, not
from rhetoric or stated goals.
– Donella H. Meadows
Thinking in Systems
My view (with complexity thinking hat)
They all have a good point.
Sometimes we need a simple model.
Sometimes we need a complicated model.
The Shu-Ha-Ri of purpose
Shu Delight customers
Ha Delight all stakeholders
Ri Delight yourself
Reductionism
Holism
Complexity Theory
Models
Complexity Thinking
Example
Final words
All models can be useful.
Some fail faster than others.
– Jurgen Appelo
There is nothing as practical as good theory.
– Kurt Lewin
We should not take our models too
seriously.
– Gerald M. Weinberg
Introduction to Systems Thinking
Is it Complexity Thinking
or Systems Thinking ++
The magpie
Finds what’s valuable and uses it in its nest
The only bird capable of self-reflection
Address1. complexity with complexity
Use2. a diversity of models
Assume3. dependence on context
Assume4. subjectivity and coevolution
Anticipate, adapt, and explore5.
Develop6. models in collaboration
Copy and change7.
The peacock
Showing off a complicated but totally useless idea
Not capable of self-reflection
Don't take speakers too seriously.
Listen (critically) to the magpies
Be wary of the peacocks.
m30.me/happiness
@jurgenappelo
slideshare.net/jurgenappelo
noop.nl
linkedin.com/in/jurgenappelo
jurgen@noop.nl
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/
This presentation was inspired by the works of many people, and
I cannot possibly list them all. Though I did my very best to attribute
all authors of texts and images, and to recognize any copyrights, if
you think that anything in this presentation should be changed,
added or removed, please contact me at jurgen@noop.nl.

More Related Content

What's hot

Cynefin and Complexity: A Gentle Introduction
Cynefin and Complexity: A Gentle IntroductionCynefin and Complexity: A Gentle Introduction
Cynefin and Complexity: A Gentle IntroductionJocko Selberg
 
Principles of Leadership for the VUCA World
Principles of Leadership for the VUCA WorldPrinciples of Leadership for the VUCA World
Principles of Leadership for the VUCA WorldDeepa Nagarajan LLP
 
A Brief, Very Very Brief Intro to Systems Thinking
A Brief, Very Very Brief Intro to Systems ThinkingA Brief, Very Very Brief Intro to Systems Thinking
A Brief, Very Very Brief Intro to Systems ThinkingZach Dennis
 
Complexity Thinking
Complexity ThinkingComplexity Thinking
Complexity ThinkingSander Schot
 
Design Tools for Systems Thinking
Design Tools for Systems ThinkingDesign Tools for Systems Thinking
Design Tools for Systems ThinkingPeter Vermaercke
 
Musings - System thinking - Notes on Donella Meadow's Book
Musings - System thinking - Notes on Donella Meadow's BookMusings - System thinking - Notes on Donella Meadow's Book
Musings - System thinking - Notes on Donella Meadow's BookJames Cracknell
 
Systems Thinking in Practice - an Open University showcase
Systems Thinking in Practice - an Open University showcaseSystems Thinking in Practice - an Open University showcase
Systems Thinking in Practice - an Open University showcasedtr4open
 
Introduction to Systems Thinking: System Structures and Behaviour
Introduction to Systems Thinking: System Structures and BehaviourIntroduction to Systems Thinking: System Structures and Behaviour
Introduction to Systems Thinking: System Structures and BehaviourJason Yip
 
Thinking in systems slides
Thinking in systems slidesThinking in systems slides
Thinking in systems slidesThái Trần
 
Understanding complexity - The Cynefin framework
Understanding complexity - The Cynefin frameworkUnderstanding complexity - The Cynefin framework
Understanding complexity - The Cynefin frameworkKeith De La Rue
 
System Thinking - Affect on Decision Making
System Thinking - Affect on Decision MakingSystem Thinking - Affect on Decision Making
System Thinking - Affect on Decision MakingMuhammad Awais
 
The Double Helix Transformation Framework for BetaCodex transformation and pr...
The Double Helix Transformation Framework for BetaCodex transformation and pr...The Double Helix Transformation Framework for BetaCodex transformation and pr...
The Double Helix Transformation Framework for BetaCodex transformation and pr...Niels Pflaeging
 
Agile Leadership - Beyond the Basics
Agile Leadership - Beyond the BasicsAgile Leadership - Beyond the Basics
Agile Leadership - Beyond the BasicsMark Levison, CST
 
Introduction to Change Management by Derek Hendrikz
Introduction to Change Management by Derek HendrikzIntroduction to Change Management by Derek Hendrikz
Introduction to Change Management by Derek HendrikzDerek Hendrikz
 
Business Agility 2017 (final)
Business Agility 2017 (final)Business Agility 2017 (final)
Business Agility 2017 (final)Fabio Armani
 

What's hot (20)

Cynefin and Complexity: A Gentle Introduction
Cynefin and Complexity: A Gentle IntroductionCynefin and Complexity: A Gentle Introduction
Cynefin and Complexity: A Gentle Introduction
 
Principles of Leadership for the VUCA World
Principles of Leadership for the VUCA WorldPrinciples of Leadership for the VUCA World
Principles of Leadership for the VUCA World
 
A Brief, Very Very Brief Intro to Systems Thinking
A Brief, Very Very Brief Intro to Systems ThinkingA Brief, Very Very Brief Intro to Systems Thinking
A Brief, Very Very Brief Intro to Systems Thinking
 
Systems thinking
Systems thinkingSystems thinking
Systems thinking
 
Complexity Thinking
Complexity ThinkingComplexity Thinking
Complexity Thinking
 
Systems Thinking
Systems Thinking Systems Thinking
Systems Thinking
 
Design Tools for Systems Thinking
Design Tools for Systems ThinkingDesign Tools for Systems Thinking
Design Tools for Systems Thinking
 
Musings - System thinking - Notes on Donella Meadow's Book
Musings - System thinking - Notes on Donella Meadow's BookMusings - System thinking - Notes on Donella Meadow's Book
Musings - System thinking - Notes on Donella Meadow's Book
 
Systems Thinking in Practice - an Open University showcase
Systems Thinking in Practice - an Open University showcaseSystems Thinking in Practice - an Open University showcase
Systems Thinking in Practice - an Open University showcase
 
Introduction to Systems Thinking: System Structures and Behaviour
Introduction to Systems Thinking: System Structures and BehaviourIntroduction to Systems Thinking: System Structures and Behaviour
Introduction to Systems Thinking: System Structures and Behaviour
 
Systems Thinking
Systems ThinkingSystems Thinking
Systems Thinking
 
Systems thinking
Systems thinkingSystems thinking
Systems thinking
 
Thinking in systems slides
Thinking in systems slidesThinking in systems slides
Thinking in systems slides
 
Understanding complexity - The Cynefin framework
Understanding complexity - The Cynefin frameworkUnderstanding complexity - The Cynefin framework
Understanding complexity - The Cynefin framework
 
System Thinking - Affect on Decision Making
System Thinking - Affect on Decision MakingSystem Thinking - Affect on Decision Making
System Thinking - Affect on Decision Making
 
An Introduction to Complexity Theory
An Introduction to Complexity TheoryAn Introduction to Complexity Theory
An Introduction to Complexity Theory
 
The Double Helix Transformation Framework for BetaCodex transformation and pr...
The Double Helix Transformation Framework for BetaCodex transformation and pr...The Double Helix Transformation Framework for BetaCodex transformation and pr...
The Double Helix Transformation Framework for BetaCodex transformation and pr...
 
Agile Leadership - Beyond the Basics
Agile Leadership - Beyond the BasicsAgile Leadership - Beyond the Basics
Agile Leadership - Beyond the Basics
 
Introduction to Change Management by Derek Hendrikz
Introduction to Change Management by Derek HendrikzIntroduction to Change Management by Derek Hendrikz
Introduction to Change Management by Derek Hendrikz
 
Business Agility 2017 (final)
Business Agility 2017 (final)Business Agility 2017 (final)
Business Agility 2017 (final)
 

Viewers also liked

Complexity Theory Basic Concepts
Complexity Theory    Basic ConceptsComplexity Theory    Basic Concepts
Complexity Theory Basic Conceptsjohncleveland
 
The Theory of Change Approach
The Theory of Change ApproachThe Theory of Change Approach
The Theory of Change ApproachEric Graig
 
Management 3.0 - Complexity Thinking
Management 3.0 - Complexity ThinkingManagement 3.0 - Complexity Thinking
Management 3.0 - Complexity ThinkingJurgen Appelo
 
PopcornFlow: Continuous Evolution Through Ultra-Rapid Experimentation
PopcornFlow: Continuous Evolution Through Ultra-Rapid ExperimentationPopcornFlow: Continuous Evolution Through Ultra-Rapid Experimentation
PopcornFlow: Continuous Evolution Through Ultra-Rapid ExperimentationClaudio Perrone
 
Complexity Science & Adaptive Supply Networks
Complexity Science & Adaptive Supply NetworksComplexity Science & Adaptive Supply Networks
Complexity Science & Adaptive Supply NetworksKelly Dobson
 
Complexity theory review
Complexity theory reviewComplexity theory review
Complexity theory reviewJo Jordan
 
Complexity versus Lean
Complexity versus LeanComplexity versus Lean
Complexity versus LeanJurgen Appelo
 
Automation presentation
Automation presentationAutomation presentation
Automation presentationAKANSHA GURELE
 
Cynefin complexity
Cynefin complexityCynefin complexity
Cynefin complexityrfflynn
 
Theory of Automata
Theory of AutomataTheory of Automata
Theory of AutomataFarooq Mian
 

Viewers also liked (16)

Complexity Theory Basic Concepts
Complexity Theory    Basic ConceptsComplexity Theory    Basic Concepts
Complexity Theory Basic Concepts
 
Theory of change
Theory of changeTheory of change
Theory of change
 
THEORY OF CHANGE
THEORY OF CHANGE THEORY OF CHANGE
THEORY OF CHANGE
 
The Theory of Change Approach
The Theory of Change ApproachThe Theory of Change Approach
The Theory of Change Approach
 
Management 3.0 - Complexity Thinking
Management 3.0 - Complexity ThinkingManagement 3.0 - Complexity Thinking
Management 3.0 - Complexity Thinking
 
PopcornFlow: Continuous Evolution Through Ultra-Rapid Experimentation
PopcornFlow: Continuous Evolution Through Ultra-Rapid ExperimentationPopcornFlow: Continuous Evolution Through Ultra-Rapid Experimentation
PopcornFlow: Continuous Evolution Through Ultra-Rapid Experimentation
 
Deterministic Finite Automata
Deterministic Finite AutomataDeterministic Finite Automata
Deterministic Finite Automata
 
Complexity Science School 2016
Complexity Science School 2016Complexity Science School 2016
Complexity Science School 2016
 
Cultivating Conversations
Cultivating ConversationsCultivating Conversations
Cultivating Conversations
 
Complexity Science & Adaptive Supply Networks
Complexity Science & Adaptive Supply NetworksComplexity Science & Adaptive Supply Networks
Complexity Science & Adaptive Supply Networks
 
Complexity theory review
Complexity theory reviewComplexity theory review
Complexity theory review
 
Complexity versus Lean
Complexity versus LeanComplexity versus Lean
Complexity versus Lean
 
Automation presentation
Automation presentationAutomation presentation
Automation presentation
 
Cynefin complexity
Cynefin complexityCynefin complexity
Cynefin complexity
 
Lecture: Automata
Lecture: AutomataLecture: Automata
Lecture: Automata
 
Theory of Automata
Theory of AutomataTheory of Automata
Theory of Automata
 

Similar to Complexity Thinking

On Analyzing Self-Driving Networks: A Systems Thinking Approach
On Analyzing Self-Driving Networks: A Systems Thinking Approach On Analyzing Self-Driving Networks: A Systems Thinking Approach
On Analyzing Self-Driving Networks: A Systems Thinking Approach Junaid Qadir
 
Agroforestry Systems Complex or worse? by Clas Andersson, Dept. of Energy and...
Agroforestry SystemsComplex or worse? by Clas Andersson, Dept. of Energy and...Agroforestry SystemsComplex or worse? by Clas Andersson, Dept. of Energy and...
Agroforestry Systems Complex or worse? by Clas Andersson, Dept. of Energy and...SIANI
 
Thinking about Teaching Systems Thinking with Technology
Thinking about Teaching Systems Thinking with TechnologyThinking about Teaching Systems Thinking with Technology
Thinking about Teaching Systems Thinking with TechnologyCraig Cunningham
 
Exploring the Science of Complexity in Aid Policy and Practice
Exploring the Science of Complexity in Aid Policy and PracticeExploring the Science of Complexity in Aid Policy and Practice
Exploring the Science of Complexity in Aid Policy and PracticeODI_Webmaster
 
Intro To Systems Theory And Leadership
Intro To Systems Theory And LeadershipIntro To Systems Theory And Leadership
Intro To Systems Theory And LeadershipKen Otter
 
Systems for sustainability workshop
Systems for sustainability workshopSystems for sustainability workshop
Systems for sustainability workshopAndrea Berardi
 
Complexadaptivesystemstheory 12613245196525-phpapp02
Complexadaptivesystemstheory 12613245196525-phpapp02Complexadaptivesystemstheory 12613245196525-phpapp02
Complexadaptivesystemstheory 12613245196525-phpapp02Zenobia Beukes
 
What Is Complexity Science? A View from Different Directions.pdf
What Is Complexity Science? A View from Different Directions.pdfWhat Is Complexity Science? A View from Different Directions.pdf
What Is Complexity Science? A View from Different Directions.pdfKizito Lubano
 
Anton Rossouw - Strategic Approaches And Tools For Managing Complex Projects
Anton Rossouw - Strategic Approaches And Tools For Managing Complex ProjectsAnton Rossouw - Strategic Approaches And Tools For Managing Complex Projects
Anton Rossouw - Strategic Approaches And Tools For Managing Complex Projectsantonrossouw
 
CriticalSystemsPractice-Stage1Explore.pdf
CriticalSystemsPractice-Stage1Explore.pdfCriticalSystemsPractice-Stage1Explore.pdf
CriticalSystemsPractice-Stage1Explore.pdfMárcio Finamor
 
Fluidity, Structuring Structures and Ethics
Fluidity, Structuring Structures and EthicsFluidity, Structuring Structures and Ethics
Fluidity, Structuring Structures and EthicsMikkel Brahm
 
Dynamic Capabilities as (workable) Systems Theory
Dynamic Capabilities as (workable) Systems TheoryDynamic Capabilities as (workable) Systems Theory
Dynamic Capabilities as (workable) Systems TheoryDavid Teece
 
Open-endedness curriculum at EEM Institute
Open-endedness curriculum at EEM InstituteOpen-endedness curriculum at EEM Institute
Open-endedness curriculum at EEM InstituteAnatoly Levenchuk
 
The Power of Collaborative Intelligence
The Power of Collaborative IntelligenceThe Power of Collaborative Intelligence
The Power of Collaborative IntelligenceLili Gulbert
 
Systems thinking diagrams
Systems thinking   diagramsSystems thinking   diagrams
Systems thinking diagramsJai Chenna
 
Systems Thinking workshop @ Lean UX NYC 2014
Systems Thinking workshop @ Lean UX NYC 2014Systems Thinking workshop @ Lean UX NYC 2014
Systems Thinking workshop @ Lean UX NYC 2014johanna kollmann
 
Evolutionary Leadership
Evolutionary LeadershipEvolutionary Leadership
Evolutionary LeadershipSyntonyQuest
 

Similar to Complexity Thinking (20)

On Analyzing Self-Driving Networks: A Systems Thinking Approach
On Analyzing Self-Driving Networks: A Systems Thinking Approach On Analyzing Self-Driving Networks: A Systems Thinking Approach
On Analyzing Self-Driving Networks: A Systems Thinking Approach
 
Agroforestry Systems Complex or worse? by Clas Andersson, Dept. of Energy and...
Agroforestry SystemsComplex or worse? by Clas Andersson, Dept. of Energy and...Agroforestry SystemsComplex or worse? by Clas Andersson, Dept. of Energy and...
Agroforestry Systems Complex or worse? by Clas Andersson, Dept. of Energy and...
 
Thinking about Teaching Systems Thinking with Technology
Thinking about Teaching Systems Thinking with TechnologyThinking about Teaching Systems Thinking with Technology
Thinking about Teaching Systems Thinking with Technology
 
Exploring the Science of Complexity in Aid Policy and Practice
Exploring the Science of Complexity in Aid Policy and PracticeExploring the Science of Complexity in Aid Policy and Practice
Exploring the Science of Complexity in Aid Policy and Practice
 
Intro To Systems Theory And Leadership
Intro To Systems Theory And LeadershipIntro To Systems Theory And Leadership
Intro To Systems Theory And Leadership
 
Systems for sustainability workshop
Systems for sustainability workshopSystems for sustainability workshop
Systems for sustainability workshop
 
Complexadaptivesystemstheory 12613245196525-phpapp02
Complexadaptivesystemstheory 12613245196525-phpapp02Complexadaptivesystemstheory 12613245196525-phpapp02
Complexadaptivesystemstheory 12613245196525-phpapp02
 
What Is Complexity Science? A View from Different Directions.pdf
What Is Complexity Science? A View from Different Directions.pdfWhat Is Complexity Science? A View from Different Directions.pdf
What Is Complexity Science? A View from Different Directions.pdf
 
Applied Science - Engineering Systems
Applied Science - Engineering SystemsApplied Science - Engineering Systems
Applied Science - Engineering Systems
 
Anton Rossouw - Strategic Approaches And Tools For Managing Complex Projects
Anton Rossouw - Strategic Approaches And Tools For Managing Complex ProjectsAnton Rossouw - Strategic Approaches And Tools For Managing Complex Projects
Anton Rossouw - Strategic Approaches And Tools For Managing Complex Projects
 
CriticalSystemsPractice-Stage1Explore.pdf
CriticalSystemsPractice-Stage1Explore.pdfCriticalSystemsPractice-Stage1Explore.pdf
CriticalSystemsPractice-Stage1Explore.pdf
 
Systems thinking class
Systems thinking classSystems thinking class
Systems thinking class
 
Fluidity, Structuring Structures and Ethics
Fluidity, Structuring Structures and EthicsFluidity, Structuring Structures and Ethics
Fluidity, Structuring Structures and Ethics
 
Dynamic Capabilities as (workable) Systems Theory
Dynamic Capabilities as (workable) Systems TheoryDynamic Capabilities as (workable) Systems Theory
Dynamic Capabilities as (workable) Systems Theory
 
Open-endedness curriculum at EEM Institute
Open-endedness curriculum at EEM InstituteOpen-endedness curriculum at EEM Institute
Open-endedness curriculum at EEM Institute
 
The Power of Collaborative Intelligence
The Power of Collaborative IntelligenceThe Power of Collaborative Intelligence
The Power of Collaborative Intelligence
 
Systems thinking diagrams
Systems thinking   diagramsSystems thinking   diagrams
Systems thinking diagrams
 
Systems Thinking workshop @ Lean UX NYC 2014
Systems Thinking workshop @ Lean UX NYC 2014Systems Thinking workshop @ Lean UX NYC 2014
Systems Thinking workshop @ Lean UX NYC 2014
 
Evolutionary Leadership
Evolutionary LeadershipEvolutionary Leadership
Evolutionary Leadership
 
Systems Tutorial - The Fundamentals
Systems Tutorial - The FundamentalsSystems Tutorial - The Fundamentals
Systems Tutorial - The Fundamentals
 

More from Jurgen Appelo

Managing for Happiness
Managing for HappinessManaging for Happiness
Managing for HappinessJurgen Appelo
 
35 Best Quotes from Management for Happiness
35 Best Quotes from Management for Happiness35 Best Quotes from Management for Happiness
35 Best Quotes from Management for HappinessJurgen Appelo
 
Management 3.0 Workout
Management 3.0 WorkoutManagement 3.0 Workout
Management 3.0 WorkoutJurgen Appelo
 
The Zen of Scrum - Russian
The Zen of Scrum - RussianThe Zen of Scrum - Russian
The Zen of Scrum - RussianJurgen Appelo
 
Management 3.0 - Brochure
Management 3.0 - BrochureManagement 3.0 - Brochure
Management 3.0 - BrochureJurgen Appelo
 
Jurgen Appelo - Brochure
Jurgen Appelo - BrochureJurgen Appelo - Brochure
Jurgen Appelo - BrochureJurgen Appelo
 
SketchKeynote Example
SketchKeynote ExampleSketchKeynote Example
SketchKeynote ExampleJurgen Appelo
 
Happy Melly Videos (General Instructions)
Happy Melly Videos (General Instructions)Happy Melly Videos (General Instructions)
Happy Melly Videos (General Instructions)Jurgen Appelo
 
Blueprint for a Tribal Business
Blueprint for a Tribal BusinessBlueprint for a Tribal Business
Blueprint for a Tribal BusinessJurgen Appelo
 
Management 3.0 in 50 minutes
Management 3.0 in 50 minutesManagement 3.0 in 50 minutes
Management 3.0 in 50 minutesJurgen Appelo
 
The 7 Duties of Great Software Professionals (Reworked)
The 7 Duties of Great Software Professionals (Reworked)The 7 Duties of Great Software Professionals (Reworked)
The 7 Duties of Great Software Professionals (Reworked)Jurgen Appelo
 
How to Change the World
How to Change the WorldHow to Change the World
How to Change the WorldJurgen Appelo
 
What Is Agile Management?
What Is Agile Management?What Is Agile Management?
What Is Agile Management?Jurgen Appelo
 
The 7 Duties of Great Software Professionals
The 7 Duties of Great Software ProfessionalsThe 7 Duties of Great Software Professionals
The 7 Duties of Great Software ProfessionalsJurgen Appelo
 

More from Jurgen Appelo (20)

Agility Scales
Agility ScalesAgility Scales
Agility Scales
 
Managing for Happiness
Managing for HappinessManaging for Happiness
Managing for Happiness
 
Champfrogs
ChampfrogsChampfrogs
Champfrogs
 
35 Best Quotes from Management for Happiness
35 Best Quotes from Management for Happiness35 Best Quotes from Management for Happiness
35 Best Quotes from Management for Happiness
 
Management 3.0 Workout
Management 3.0 WorkoutManagement 3.0 Workout
Management 3.0 Workout
 
The Zen of Scrum - Russian
The Zen of Scrum - RussianThe Zen of Scrum - Russian
The Zen of Scrum - Russian
 
Management 3.0 - Brochure
Management 3.0 - BrochureManagement 3.0 - Brochure
Management 3.0 - Brochure
 
Jurgen Appelo - Brochure
Jurgen Appelo - BrochureJurgen Appelo - Brochure
Jurgen Appelo - Brochure
 
I Can't Draw
I Can't DrawI Can't Draw
I Can't Draw
 
SketchKeynote Example
SketchKeynote ExampleSketchKeynote Example
SketchKeynote Example
 
Happy Melly Videos (General Instructions)
Happy Melly Videos (General Instructions)Happy Melly Videos (General Instructions)
Happy Melly Videos (General Instructions)
 
Blueprint for a Tribal Business
Blueprint for a Tribal BusinessBlueprint for a Tribal Business
Blueprint for a Tribal Business
 
Let’s Help Melly
Let’s Help MellyLet’s Help Melly
Let’s Help Melly
 
Management 3.0 in 50 minutes
Management 3.0 in 50 minutesManagement 3.0 in 50 minutes
Management 3.0 in 50 minutes
 
Stoos and Stuff
Stoos and StuffStoos and Stuff
Stoos and Stuff
 
Stoos Gathering
Stoos GatheringStoos Gathering
Stoos Gathering
 
The 7 Duties of Great Software Professionals (Reworked)
The 7 Duties of Great Software Professionals (Reworked)The 7 Duties of Great Software Professionals (Reworked)
The 7 Duties of Great Software Professionals (Reworked)
 
How to Change the World
How to Change the WorldHow to Change the World
How to Change the World
 
What Is Agile Management?
What Is Agile Management?What Is Agile Management?
What Is Agile Management?
 
The 7 Duties of Great Software Professionals
The 7 Duties of Great Software ProfessionalsThe 7 Duties of Great Software Professionals
The 7 Duties of Great Software Professionals
 

Recently uploaded

Market Sizes Sample Report - 2024 Edition
Market Sizes Sample Report - 2024 EditionMarket Sizes Sample Report - 2024 Edition
Market Sizes Sample Report - 2024 EditionMintel Group
 
APRIL2024_UKRAINE_xml_0000000000000 .pdf
APRIL2024_UKRAINE_xml_0000000000000 .pdfAPRIL2024_UKRAINE_xml_0000000000000 .pdf
APRIL2024_UKRAINE_xml_0000000000000 .pdfRbc Rbcua
 
Church Building Grants To Assist With New Construction, Additions, And Restor...
Church Building Grants To Assist With New Construction, Additions, And Restor...Church Building Grants To Assist With New Construction, Additions, And Restor...
Church Building Grants To Assist With New Construction, Additions, And Restor...Americas Got Grants
 
NewBase 19 April 2024 Energy News issue - 1717 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf
NewBase  19 April  2024  Energy News issue - 1717 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdfNewBase  19 April  2024  Energy News issue - 1717 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf
NewBase 19 April 2024 Energy News issue - 1717 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdfKhaled Al Awadi
 
FULL ENJOY Call girls in Paharganj Delhi | 8377087607
FULL ENJOY Call girls in Paharganj Delhi | 8377087607FULL ENJOY Call girls in Paharganj Delhi | 8377087607
FULL ENJOY Call girls in Paharganj Delhi | 8377087607dollysharma2066
 
(Best) ENJOY Call Girls in Faridabad Ex | 8377087607
(Best) ENJOY Call Girls in Faridabad Ex | 8377087607(Best) ENJOY Call Girls in Faridabad Ex | 8377087607
(Best) ENJOY Call Girls in Faridabad Ex | 8377087607dollysharma2066
 
Financial-Statement-Analysis-of-Coca-cola-Company.pptx
Financial-Statement-Analysis-of-Coca-cola-Company.pptxFinancial-Statement-Analysis-of-Coca-cola-Company.pptx
Financial-Statement-Analysis-of-Coca-cola-Company.pptxsaniyaimamuddin
 
Annual General Meeting Presentation Slides
Annual General Meeting Presentation SlidesAnnual General Meeting Presentation Slides
Annual General Meeting Presentation SlidesKeppelCorporation
 
Memorándum de Entendimiento (MoU) entre Codelco y SQM
Memorándum de Entendimiento (MoU) entre Codelco y SQMMemorándum de Entendimiento (MoU) entre Codelco y SQM
Memorándum de Entendimiento (MoU) entre Codelco y SQMVoces Mineras
 
Call Us 📲8800102216📞 Call Girls In DLF City Gurgaon
Call Us 📲8800102216📞 Call Girls In DLF City GurgaonCall Us 📲8800102216📞 Call Girls In DLF City Gurgaon
Call Us 📲8800102216📞 Call Girls In DLF City Gurgaoncallgirls2057
 
Cybersecurity Awareness Training Presentation v2024.03
Cybersecurity Awareness Training Presentation v2024.03Cybersecurity Awareness Training Presentation v2024.03
Cybersecurity Awareness Training Presentation v2024.03DallasHaselhorst
 
Darshan Hiranandani [News About Next CEO].pdf
Darshan Hiranandani [News About Next CEO].pdfDarshan Hiranandani [News About Next CEO].pdf
Darshan Hiranandani [News About Next CEO].pdfShashank Mehta
 
Ten Organizational Design Models to align structure and operations to busines...
Ten Organizational Design Models to align structure and operations to busines...Ten Organizational Design Models to align structure and operations to busines...
Ten Organizational Design Models to align structure and operations to busines...Seta Wicaksana
 
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Dwarka mor Delhi NCR
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Dwarka mor Delhi NCR8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Dwarka mor Delhi NCR
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Dwarka mor Delhi NCRashishs7044
 
Organizational Structure Running A Successful Business
Organizational Structure Running A Successful BusinessOrganizational Structure Running A Successful Business
Organizational Structure Running A Successful BusinessSeta Wicaksana
 
Kenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith Perera
Kenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith PereraKenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith Perera
Kenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith Pereraictsugar
 
Call Girls Contact Number Andheri 9920874524
Call Girls Contact Number Andheri 9920874524Call Girls Contact Number Andheri 9920874524
Call Girls Contact Number Andheri 9920874524najka9823
 
1911 Gold Corporate Presentation Apr 2024.pdf
1911 Gold Corporate Presentation Apr 2024.pdf1911 Gold Corporate Presentation Apr 2024.pdf
1911 Gold Corporate Presentation Apr 2024.pdfShaun Heinrichs
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Market Sizes Sample Report - 2024 Edition
Market Sizes Sample Report - 2024 EditionMarket Sizes Sample Report - 2024 Edition
Market Sizes Sample Report - 2024 Edition
 
APRIL2024_UKRAINE_xml_0000000000000 .pdf
APRIL2024_UKRAINE_xml_0000000000000 .pdfAPRIL2024_UKRAINE_xml_0000000000000 .pdf
APRIL2024_UKRAINE_xml_0000000000000 .pdf
 
Church Building Grants To Assist With New Construction, Additions, And Restor...
Church Building Grants To Assist With New Construction, Additions, And Restor...Church Building Grants To Assist With New Construction, Additions, And Restor...
Church Building Grants To Assist With New Construction, Additions, And Restor...
 
NewBase 19 April 2024 Energy News issue - 1717 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf
NewBase  19 April  2024  Energy News issue - 1717 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdfNewBase  19 April  2024  Energy News issue - 1717 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf
NewBase 19 April 2024 Energy News issue - 1717 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf
 
FULL ENJOY Call girls in Paharganj Delhi | 8377087607
FULL ENJOY Call girls in Paharganj Delhi | 8377087607FULL ENJOY Call girls in Paharganj Delhi | 8377087607
FULL ENJOY Call girls in Paharganj Delhi | 8377087607
 
Call Us ➥9319373153▻Call Girls In North Goa
Call Us ➥9319373153▻Call Girls In North GoaCall Us ➥9319373153▻Call Girls In North Goa
Call Us ➥9319373153▻Call Girls In North Goa
 
(Best) ENJOY Call Girls in Faridabad Ex | 8377087607
(Best) ENJOY Call Girls in Faridabad Ex | 8377087607(Best) ENJOY Call Girls in Faridabad Ex | 8377087607
(Best) ENJOY Call Girls in Faridabad Ex | 8377087607
 
Financial-Statement-Analysis-of-Coca-cola-Company.pptx
Financial-Statement-Analysis-of-Coca-cola-Company.pptxFinancial-Statement-Analysis-of-Coca-cola-Company.pptx
Financial-Statement-Analysis-of-Coca-cola-Company.pptx
 
Annual General Meeting Presentation Slides
Annual General Meeting Presentation SlidesAnnual General Meeting Presentation Slides
Annual General Meeting Presentation Slides
 
Memorándum de Entendimiento (MoU) entre Codelco y SQM
Memorándum de Entendimiento (MoU) entre Codelco y SQMMemorándum de Entendimiento (MoU) entre Codelco y SQM
Memorándum de Entendimiento (MoU) entre Codelco y SQM
 
Call Us 📲8800102216📞 Call Girls In DLF City Gurgaon
Call Us 📲8800102216📞 Call Girls In DLF City GurgaonCall Us 📲8800102216📞 Call Girls In DLF City Gurgaon
Call Us 📲8800102216📞 Call Girls In DLF City Gurgaon
 
Cybersecurity Awareness Training Presentation v2024.03
Cybersecurity Awareness Training Presentation v2024.03Cybersecurity Awareness Training Presentation v2024.03
Cybersecurity Awareness Training Presentation v2024.03
 
Darshan Hiranandani [News About Next CEO].pdf
Darshan Hiranandani [News About Next CEO].pdfDarshan Hiranandani [News About Next CEO].pdf
Darshan Hiranandani [News About Next CEO].pdf
 
Ten Organizational Design Models to align structure and operations to busines...
Ten Organizational Design Models to align structure and operations to busines...Ten Organizational Design Models to align structure and operations to busines...
Ten Organizational Design Models to align structure and operations to busines...
 
Corporate Profile 47Billion Information Technology
Corporate Profile 47Billion Information TechnologyCorporate Profile 47Billion Information Technology
Corporate Profile 47Billion Information Technology
 
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Dwarka mor Delhi NCR
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Dwarka mor Delhi NCR8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Dwarka mor Delhi NCR
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Dwarka mor Delhi NCR
 
Organizational Structure Running A Successful Business
Organizational Structure Running A Successful BusinessOrganizational Structure Running A Successful Business
Organizational Structure Running A Successful Business
 
Kenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith Perera
Kenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith PereraKenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith Perera
Kenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith Perera
 
Call Girls Contact Number Andheri 9920874524
Call Girls Contact Number Andheri 9920874524Call Girls Contact Number Andheri 9920874524
Call Girls Contact Number Andheri 9920874524
 
1911 Gold Corporate Presentation Apr 2024.pdf
1911 Gold Corporate Presentation Apr 2024.pdf1911 Gold Corporate Presentation Apr 2024.pdf
1911 Gold Corporate Presentation Apr 2024.pdf
 

Complexity Thinking

  • 1. © Jurgen Appelo  version 2  management30.com Complexity Thinking or Systems Thinking ++ ? “The search for simple –if not simpleminded– solutions to complex problems is a consequence of the inability to deal effectively with complexity.” – Russell L. Ackoff
  • 2. Jurgen Appelo writer, speaker, trainer, entrepreneur... www.jurgenappelo.com
  • 4. What happens when you go to a bar full of systems thinkers and complexity researchers
  • 5. Russell L. Ackoff Ralph Stacey Dave Snowden Donella H. Meadows W. Edwards Deming Peter M. Senge Peter F. Drucker Peter Checkland Gerald M. Weinberg John H. Holland Michael C. Jackson John Seddon Max Boisot
  • 7. “Are the people here part of the bar?”
  • 8. “Is the beer part of the bar?”
  • 9. “If we drink the beer, is it still part of the bar?”
  • 10. “What if my beer and I go outside?”
  • 11. “Is the bar a system?”
  • 12. “What is the purpose of the bar?”
  • 14. We converse about abstractions Abstractions are imperfect and incomplete.
  • 15. It is a form of interaction The activity of abstracting is basically a form of interaction between people in which they simplify the complexity of their own ordinary, everyday interactions […] in an effort to make meaning of what they are doing […]. – Ralph Stacey Complexity and Organizational Reality
  • 16. To make sense of the world Sense-making is the way that humans choose between multiple possible explanations of sensory input. – Dave Snowden http://kwork.org/Stars/Snowden/snowden3.html#Simplicity
  • 17. reductionism re·duc·tion·ism noun ri-ˈdək-shə-ˌni-zəm – explanation of complex life-science processes and phenomena in terms of the laws of physics and chemistry – a procedure or theory that reduces complex data and phenomena to simple terms http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/reductionism
  • 18. The bar is... the building, inventory, employees, guests, some interaction, etc... reductionism
  • 19. A problem is that people have become addicted to the successes of reductionism. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductionism
  • 20. “Left-brain” thinking All system theories were created by engineers and scientists (“left-brainers”).
  • 21. Analysis in management This systems movement […] has come to form the foundation of today’s dominant management discourse, so importing the engineer’s notion of control into understanding human activity. – Ralph Stacey Complexity and Organizational Reality
  • 27. • Problem: Dehumanization • Problem: Objectivization • Problem: Alienation • Problem: Prediction • Problem: Attribution This list of five problems is my abstraction, and my attempt at sense-making!
  • 29. Revenge for “right-brainers” Some people have suggested more holistic approaches.
  • 30. See the whole system Living systems have integrity. Their character depends on the whole. The same is true for organizations. – Peter M. Senge The Fifth Discipline
  • 31. Greater than the sum of the parts The enterprise must be a genuine whole: greater than the sum of its parts, with its output larger than the sum of all inputs. – Peter F. Drucker Management
  • 32. Synthesis, not analysis Analysis is only one way of thinking; synthesis is another. [...] In analysis, something that we want to understand is first taken apart. In synthesis, that which we want to understand is first identified as part of one or more larger systems. – Russell L. Ackoff Recreating the Corporation
  • 33. But what is the whole
  • 34. Problem: Impossible If everything is connected to everything, what is the “whole”?
  • 35. Problem: Unscientific new age fluffy bunnies – Dave Snowden http://km4meu.wordpress.com/2011/09/14/radical-ideals-and-fluffy-bunnies/
  • 36. An unquestioned assumption By formulating a research aim to uncover the fundamental characteristics of systems of various kinds, we were making the unquestioned assumption that the world contained such systems. – Peter Checkland Systems Thinking, Systems Practice
  • 37. Actually, there are no systems Where to draw a boundary around a system depends on the questions we want to ask. – Donella H. Meadows Thinking in Systems
  • 38. There are perspectives A system is a way of looking at the world. – Gerald M. Weinberg Introduction to General Systems Thinking
  • 39. Systems depend on context The boundaries of systems keep shifting, using reductionism and holism. How much to abstract or extend depends on what you want to understand.
  • 40. No radical holism/reductionism Complexity theory does not embrace the radical holism of systems theory, the notion that everything matters and everything has to be taken into account. – Steve Phelan The Interaction of Complexity and Management
  • 42. Brains, bacteria, immune systems, the Internet, countries, gardens, cities, beehives… They’re all complex adaptive systems.
  • 43. A team is a complex adaptive system (CAS), because it consists of parts (people) that form a system (team), and the system shows complex behavior while it keeps adapting to a changing environment.
  • 44. One perspective The properties of complex adaptive systems are: • Aggregation • Nonlinearity • Flows • Diversity – John H. Holland Hidden Order
  • 45. Another perspective There are six notions in complexity theory: • Sensitivity to initial conditions (butterfly effect) • Strange attractors (unpredictability) • Self-similarity (fractals) • Self-organization (distributed control) • The edge of chaos (emergence) • Fitness landscapes (continuous improvement) – Michael C. Jackson Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers
  • 46. And it evolved like this... – Jeffrey Goldstein Complexity and the Nexus of Leadership
  • 49. Of course, these are all just abstractions...
  • 50. Complexity theory itself is complex Papers are being posted on the Web long before publication and there is rapid movement of what could be called precodified or protocodified knowledge. […] I am not saying whether this is good or bad; I am merely suggesting that this is one of the characteristics affecting the evolution of complexity sciences. – Max Boisot The Interaction of Complexity and Management
  • 51. Complexity theory is about change Complexity theory is not a cohesive theory. It is not one equation. It is really a collection of ideas about the concept of change in complex adaptive systems […]. It talks about the dynamics of change in a system. – Irene Sanders The Interaction of Complexity and Management
  • 52. People and relationships We found that this new science leads to a new theory of business that places people and relationships […] into dramatic relief. – Roger Lewin, Birute Regine The Interaction of Complexity and Management
  • 53. And about hype I think the next century will be the century of complexity. – Stephen Hawking San Jose Mercury News, 23 January 2000
  • 54. And about unification We can justifiably think of Complexity as a sort of umbrella science – or even the Science of all Sciences. – Neil Johnson Simply Complexity
  • 55. But who wants unification? Scholars […] have been understandably reluctant to see their pet subject as simply one more example of some broader 'general system'! – Peter Checkland Systems Thinking, Systems Practice
  • 56. No consensus, no unification Perhaps because the field has attracted researchers from a wide diversity of home disciplines, there is no consensus as to how to define, measure, describe, or interpret "complexity." – Steve Maguire The Interaction of Complexity and Management
  • 57. Complexity theory explains why complex problems need multiple perspectives. It is successful in explaining its own failure at being one theory!
  • 58. But complexity is growing Accelerating economic and social change in the global economy, the consequent imperative for ever faster innovation, the emergence of global networks of partners, […] the multiplication of media channels, and burgeoning diversity in both the workplace and marketplace. – Steve Denning Radical Management
  • 59. And complicated is not complex Analysis works in complicated cases (plic in complicated means "fold"), but the interweavings (plex) of the complex do not yield to reductionist analysis or to a concentration on details. – Michael L. Lissack The Interaction of Complexity and Management
  • 60. You can try to simplify a system to make it understandable But you cannot linearize the system to make it predictable
  • 61. Complicated vs. Complex is itself is reductionism (and a false dichotomy)! Some systems can be seen as both complicated and complex.
  • 62. This is all great, but how do we use all these ideas about complexity
  • 63. The Scientific Method The traditional approach... 1. Observations 2. Hypotheses 3. Predictions 4. Experiments http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method
  • 64. Houston, we have a problem This makes the standard method of accumulating evidence highly problematic, because it is based on the assumption of repetitive events. Evidence is accumulated by observing repetitions in traditional science but rather different notions of evidence need to be developed for the complexity sciences. – Ralph Stacey Complexity and Organizational Reality
  • 65. Complexity invalidates prediction! The crucial problem which science faces is its ability to cope with complexity. – Peter Checkland Systems Thinking, Systems Practice
  • 66. Complexity theory predicts that we cannot rely on predictions.
  • 67. That doesn’t seem very helpful. Is there anything else we can do
  • 70. model mod·el noun ˈmä-dəl – a usually miniature representation of something – a description or analogy used to help visualize something (as an atom) that cannot be directly observed – a system of postulates, data, and inferences presented as a mathematical description of an entity or state of affairs http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/model
  • 71. We use models for two reasons Confirmatory models: prediction & control Exploratory models: insight & understanding – Steve Phelan The Interaction of Complexity and Management
  • 72. We’ll focus on exploratory models Confirmatory models are impossible to make in complexity theory. But we can use exploratory models to aid in sense-making.
  • 73. Making sense of improvement http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PDCA http://gumption.typepad.com/blog/entrepreneuria/
  • 74. Making sense of learning Shu Ha Ri Beginner Advanced Beginner Competent Proficient Expert http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuhari http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreyfus_model_of_skill_acquisition
  • 75. Making sense of complexity Ralph Stacey Dave Snowden
  • 76. There’s only 1 criterion for models Does the model help people to make sense of the world (insight and understanding)?
  • 77. Of course, it requires a balance How detailed (complicated) will you make the model to make it useful? The usefulness of a model depends on the complexity of the mind and of the environment.
  • 78. A simple model of London http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_FHHhq9JdAXg/TIUalCWz_zI/AAAAAAAAAUg/C0CTOtV6iiw/s1600/cowshed-spasmap-aw8-low+res.jpg
  • 79. A complicated model of London http://www.bestcitymaps.com/citymaps/images/london.jpg
  • 82. A simple model for managers – Jurgen Appelo Management 3.0
  • 83. A complicated model for managers – Dan Levinthal The Interaction of Complexity and Management
  • 84. Models are never perfect All models wrong, some are useful. – George Box Usefulness is context-dependent. It depends on the people and their environment.
  • 86. metaphor met·a·phor noun ˈme-tə-ˌfȯr also -fər – a figure of speech in which a word or phrase literally denoting one kind of object or idea is used in place of another to suggest a likeness or analogy between them http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/metaphor
  • 87. Metaphors in science • Butterfy Effect • Edge of Chaos • Survival of the Fittest Metaphors are fuzzy but effective models.
  • 88. Metaphors in management organizations as machines;• organizations as organisms;• organizations as brains;• organizations as flux and transformation;• organizations as cultures;• organizations as political systems;• organizations as psychic prisons;• organizations as instruments of domination;• organizations as carnivals• . – Michael C. Jackson Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers
  • 89. Organizations as machines Machine images pervade management jargon. We have managers who “run” a company, much the way you would run a machine. We have the “owners” of the company, which is perfectly appropriate terminology for a machine but somewhat problematic when applied to a human community. And of course there are leaders who “drive change.” – Peter M. Senge The Fifth Discipline
  • 90. Danger of metaphors Reminiscence syndrome Jumping to conclusions because things look “the same” – Jack Cowan
  • 91. Example: inventory as waste The metaphor of inventory applied to knowledge work can be useful, but it fails fast. It leads people to draw conclusions about “waste” that make no sense (to me).
  • 92. Useful question: when do they fail? Metaphors are the weakest of all models. They fail fast. Science likes mathematical models. They fail much later.
  • 93. A key point of complexity theory Multiple weak models can make just as much sense as one strong model. (And it’s certainly better than no models.) In the end all models fail.
  • 94. This point makes it clear you also need other people’s views on complexity thinking. A single perspective is not enough!
  • 96. mathematics math·e·mat·ics noun ˌmath-ˈma-tiks, ˌma-thə- – the science of numbers and their operations, interrelations, combinations, generalizations, and abstractions and of space configurations and their structure, measurement, transformations, and generalizations http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/mathematics
  • 97. Scientific management (Taylorism) The earliest attempt at applying mathematics to management of organizations. • Improving efficiency • Reducing variation • Increasing output http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_management
  • 99. simulation sim·u·la·tion noun ˌsim-yə-ˈlā-shən – the imitative representation of the functioning of one system or process by means of the functioning of another – examination of a problem often not subject to direct experimentation by means of a simulating device http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/simulation
  • 100. The heart of complexity theory At the heart of complexity theory are these formal models that utilize new techniques in artificial intelligence to motivate artificial agents. Behind them are some heavy-duty mathematics and computer science. – Steve Phelan The Interaction of Complexity and Management
  • 101. Problem: prediction & control For systems dynamics thinkers, the aim is to identify leverage points for interventions that will enable them to identify where, when and how to initiate change and so stay in control. However, the ability to do this in a system that is sensitive to tiny changes is called into question. That obviously has serious implications for the human ability to stay ‘in control’. – Ralph Stacey Complexity and Organizational Reality
  • 103. pattern pat·tern noun ˈpa-tərn – a form or model proposed for imitation – a reliable sample of traits, acts, tendencies, or other observable characteristics of a person, group, or institution – a discernible coherent system based on the intended interrelationship of component parts http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pattern
  • 105. Archetype: Shifting the burden Shifting the burden, dependence, and addiction arise when a solution to a systemic problem reduces (or disguises) the symptoms, but does nothing to solve the underlying problem. – Donella H. Meadows Thinking in Systems
  • 106. Archetype: Shifting problems Solutions that merely shift problems from one part of a system to another often go undetected because, unlike the rug merchant, those who “solved” the first problem are different from those who inherit the new problem. – Peter M. Senge The Fifth Discipline
  • 107. Archetype: The easy way out We all find comfort applying familiar solutions to problems, sticking to what we know best. – Peter M. Senge The Fifth Discipline
  • 108. Problem : objectivation Consider how this systems thinking compares with the earlier framework of scientific management. The manager continues to be equated with the natural scientist, the objective observer, and just as the scientist is concerned with a natural phenomenon, so the manager is concerned with an organization. – Ralph Stacey Complexity and Organizational Reality
  • 109. Problem : objectivation Hard systems thinking is unable to deal satisfactorily with multiple perceptions of reality. […] Different stakeholders will have diverse opinions about the nature of the system they are involved with and about its proper purposes. – Michael C. Jackson Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers
  • 110.
  • 111. So, how should we use those models in a social system
  • 113. “Soft Systems Thinking” – Michael C. Jackson Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers
  • 114. “Soft Complexity” Systems theory -> Hard systems thinking Soft systems thinking Complexity theory -> Hard complexity Soft complexity – Steve Maguire The Interaction of Complexity and Management
  • 115. “Social Complexity” – Dave Snowden http://emergentpublications.com/ECO/ECO_other/Issue_6_1-2_19_FM.pdf
  • 117. 1) Address complexity with complexity The complexity of a system must be adequate to the complexity of the environment that it finds itself in. – Max Boisot The Interaction of Complexity and Management The human mind is more complex than tools Use stories, metaphors, pictures…
  • 118. Law of Requisite Variety If a system is to be stable the number of states of its control mechanism must be greater than or equal to the number of states in the system being controlled. – William Ross Ashby
  • 119. Law of Requisite Variety Ashby's law of requisite variety is as important to managers as Einstein's law of relativity to physicists. – Anthony Stafford Beer Designing Freedom
  • 120. The Kanban board is complicated, not complex. http://www.xqa.com.ar/visualmanagement/tag/kanban/
  • 122. Narratives useful for sense-making [Complexity thinkers] argue that complex thinking is best accomplished in a narrative mode of thinking rather than the propositional thinking of the traditional scientific method. […] Both involve recursiveness, nonlinearity, sensitive dependency on initial conditions, indeterminacy, unpredictability and emergence. – Ralph Stacey Complexity and Organizational Reality
  • 124. Reduction vs. Absorption Complexity reduction entails getting to understand the complexity and acting on it directly, including attempting environmental enactment. Complexity absorption entails creating options and risk-hedging strategies. – Max Boisot The Interaction of Complexity and Management
  • 125. From reduction to absorption Top-down rules reduce an organization’s ability to deal with variety. – John Seddon Freedom from Command & Control
  • 126. Insofar as the business environment is becoming more complex, firms will need to shift from the complexity-reducing strategies that secured their success from the end of the nineteenth until the end of the twentieth century and place more stress on complexity- absorbing ones-a shift away from bureaucracies and toward fiefs, markets, and clans. – Max Boisot The Interaction of Complexity and Management Reduction vs. Absorption
  • 127. 2) Use a diversity of models Complexity itself is anti-methodology. It is against "one size fits all." – Tom Petzinger The Interaction of Complexity and Management Multiple weak models can make just as much sense as one strong model.
  • 128. Each systems approach is useful for certain purposes and in particular types of problem situation. A diversity of approaches, therefore, heralds not a crisis but increased competence in a variety of problem contexts. – Michael C. Jackson Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers Multiple approaches
  • 129. Different people and tools• Different metaphors and analogies• Different patterns and simulations• Different methods and practices• Multiple approaches
  • 130. 3) Assume dependence on context Best practice is past practice. – Dave Snowden The Interaction of Complexity and Management
  • 131. Retrospective coherence Any evidence provided will depend on the period selected and the place in which the events are occurring as well as other aspects of context. It follows that any relationship anyone identifies between a management action and an outcome could have far more to do with a particular time and place where the sample is selected than anything else. – Ralph Stacey Complexity and Organizational Reality
  • 132. 4) Assume subjectivity and coevolution The observer influences the system, and the system influences the observer. The people form the culture, and the culture forms the people.
  • 134. 5) Anticipate, adapt, explore Anticipation Looking forward, proactive, imagining improvement Adaptation Looking backward, reactive, responding to change Exploration Trying things out, safe-to-fail experiments
  • 135. 6) Develop models in collaboration Does the model help people to make sense of the world (insight and understanding)?
  • 136. 1. Address complexity with complexity 2. Use a diversity of models 3. Assume dependence on context 4. Assume subjectivity and coevolution 5. Anticipate, adapt, and explore 6. Develop models in collaboration
  • 138. Address1. complexity with complexity Use2. a diversity of models Assume3. dependence on context Assume4. subjectivity and coevolution Anticipate, adapt, and explore5. Develop6. models in collaboration Does Scrum Match ComplexityThinking? Yes No Yes Yes No Yes
  • 139. 1. Address complexity with complexity 2. Use a diversity of models 3. Assume dependence on context 4. Assume subjectivity and coevolution 5. Anticipate, adapt, and explore 6. Develop models in collaboration
  • 140. Example What is the purpose of an organization?
  • 141. It’s about the shareholder Our aim is to be the biggest or second biggest market player, and to return maximum value to stockholders. – Jack Welch (General Electric) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shareholder_value
  • 142. It’s about the customer There is only one valid definition of business business purpose: to create a customer. – Peter F. Drucker Management
  • 143. It’s about the employee When we talk to our People, we proudly draw a pyramid on the chalkboard and tell them: You are at the top of the pyramid. You are the most important person to us. You are our most important Customer in terms of priority. – Colleen Barrett (Southwest Airlines) http://leaderchat.org/2011/01/10/customers-employees-and-shareholders%E2%80%94who-comes-first-in-your-organization/
  • 144. It’s about the organization The fundamental mission of an organization is to survive. – W. Warner Burke Organization Change
  • 145. It’s about the environment The function of firms is to produce and distribute wealth. – Russell L. Ackoff Recreating the Organization
  • 146. It’s about all of them Organizations must be viewed as social systems serving three sets of purposes: their own, those of their parts and those of the wider systems of which they are part. – Michael C. Jackson Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers
  • 147. It’s about none of them A system has no purpose. Purpose is a relation, not a thing to have. – Gerald M. Weinberg Introduction to General Systems Thinking
  • 148. Well, it depends... Purposes are deduced from behavior, not from rhetoric or stated goals. – Donella H. Meadows Thinking in Systems
  • 149. My view (with complexity thinking hat) They all have a good point. Sometimes we need a simple model. Sometimes we need a complicated model.
  • 150. The Shu-Ha-Ri of purpose Shu Delight customers Ha Delight all stakeholders Ri Delight yourself
  • 152. All models can be useful. Some fail faster than others. – Jurgen Appelo
  • 153. There is nothing as practical as good theory. – Kurt Lewin
  • 154. We should not take our models too seriously. – Gerald M. Weinberg Introduction to Systems Thinking
  • 155. Is it Complexity Thinking or Systems Thinking ++
  • 156. The magpie Finds what’s valuable and uses it in its nest The only bird capable of self-reflection
  • 157. Address1. complexity with complexity Use2. a diversity of models Assume3. dependence on context Assume4. subjectivity and coevolution Anticipate, adapt, and explore5. Develop6. models in collaboration Copy and change7.
  • 158. The peacock Showing off a complicated but totally useless idea Not capable of self-reflection
  • 159. Don't take speakers too seriously. Listen (critically) to the magpies Be wary of the peacocks.
  • 160.
  • 161.
  • 164. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/ This presentation was inspired by the works of many people, and I cannot possibly list them all. Though I did my very best to attribute all authors of texts and images, and to recognize any copyrights, if you think that anything in this presentation should be changed, added or removed, please contact me at jurgen@noop.nl.

Editor's Notes

  1. When we talk about things we always use abstractions. Incomplete representations of the world around us.
  2. And we always have multiple options for choosing abstractions.
  3. Engineers and scientists are particularly good at abstractions, which is why all system theories are created by “left-brainers”.Note: it is known that “left-brain” versus “right-brain” is bad science. But it is a useful metaphor.
  4. But too much abstraction leads to problems. Such as executives only focusing on cold numbers in spreadsheets, instead of real human beings.
  5. Or consultants trying to design organizations, without realizing that they cannot be objective observers.
  6. Or the alienation of architects who create fantastic models that don’t make sense to people in real situations.
  7. Or the idea that project management can predict and control the future.
  8. Or the idea that there is always someone to blame whenever there is a problem.
  9. Some people think we should strive for a holistic approach to organizations. We can call them the “right-brainers”.
  10. In fact, it is impossible to be really holistic.
  11. It is always necessary to place boundaries.And where to place them depends on the problem.
  12. See book: page 41-45
  13. This is the same as the Law of Requisite Variety. But this quote is easier to explain.Only the human mind is at least as complex as the complexity of the environment that software projects find themselves in.
  14. I explain that the 360 degree evaluation is, in principle, a good idea. Because the point is to let the system (the team) generate its own feedback about its parts (team members).However, in some companies it is implemented badly. There are even HR tools that fully automate the 360-degree process, enabling people to fill out forms via email, anonymously, about each other. This is very bad for trust and respect in the organization.I explain that the last time I organized a 360 degree evaluation I did it during dinner with the whole team. It was a great and very useful experience.See book: page 242-245
  15. I explain that complexity researcher Dave Snowden says in his keynotes that stories/narratives work better than values or vision statements. And I show with this picture that we used a lego model of metaphors, combined with photos and video, to craft the vision for the ALE network.
  16. The “long tail” and the “strength of weak ties” are both metaphors that suggest that the sum of all small things in a social network can together be more powerful than the few strong things in the network.Likewise, several weak models can be more powerful than one strong model.In social systems we only have weak models (no strong mathematical models).Therefore, we need multiple models to make sense of the world around us.
  17. What worked for you in the past may not work for you in the future.What works for somebody else may not work for you.
  18. The practices you try will influence the system, but the system will also influence the practices you try.
  19. Exploration is often forgotten on Agile teams.They only do (lots of) adaptation and (a bit of) anticipation.
  20. Working models must be developed through their actual use by people, otherwise they won’t make sense to them.
  21. In Scrum the whole team is required to participate in stand-ups and planning/demo meetings. Therefore Scrum wants us to use the complexity of the minds of the whole team to deal with the complexity of the environment.Scrum is just one model. For example, it specifically requires the use of timeboxes and is incompatible with iterationless models (such as Kanban). In fact, the term “ScrumBut” clearly suggests that there is a “proper” way of doing Scrum.Scrum does recognize that it is a framework and that other practices have to be filled in to make it work, but acknowledges that these practices depend on context.Scrum specifically suggests to iterate often because the demo of the product will influence the customer, and this will influence the backlog, and therefore the product.There is only focus on adaptation and anticipation in Scrum. There is no clear suggestion to explore.Scrum requires that the team changes its process model through regular retrospectives.