форсайт управление думая о будущем 2

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форсайт управление думая о будущем
Thinking [Better] About
the Future:
A Hands-on Approach to Applying Foresight
Andy Hines

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форсайт управление думая о будущем 2

  1. 1. Thinking [Better] About the Future: A Hands-on Approach to Applying Foresight Andy Hines IABC Houston May 12, 2011
  2. 2. Where I‟m Coming From
  3. 3. • Uncover new opportunities • Detect threats • Craft strategy • Guide policy • Understand emerging customer needs • Explore new offering, markets, products, or services Why Foresight?
  4. 4. Approach
  5. 5. Framing
  6. 6. Framing: What Are We Looking For? 1.1 Know your audience 1.2 Map the innovation landscape 1.3 Set your time horizon 1.4 Polling: Degree of “stretch” If you don’t know where you’re going, you may end up somewhere else – Yogi Berra
  7. 7. Fence-sitters Bridge Builders Laggards Don’t Get It Get It Ideologies True Believers Pragmatist 1.1 Know Your Audience
  8. 8. 1.2 Map the Landscape Knowledge Work Workers Work Tools Work Models Work Spaces
  9. 9. EXAMPLE: The Trend Universe is a tool intended to stimulate individual and team thinking about trends influencing growth or other aspects of the business http://growth.intranet.dow.com/TrendsSection/TrendsHomePg.htm Contextual Trends Social Chemical House & Home Health Transportation Food Industry Biotech Infotech Leisure & Entertainment Materials Energy Market Trends Economic Political Demographic Environmental Technological the broad trends in the world at large that plant the seeds of longer-term business opportunities the trends that are manifested in markets that point to nearer-term business opportunities MORE TRENDS RESOURCES For more info on trends or how to use them in ideation contact
  10. 10. 1.3 Set Your Time Horizon Computer Chips = 18 months Cars = 3-5 years Oil Platforms = 30+ years What is your product cycle , or the industries you work with?
  11. 11. Degree of Stretch Degree of “stretch” 1. SAFE Smaller Payoff Less Risk 3. PROVOCATIVE Bigger Payoff Higher Risk A competitor announces a bold move into an innovative new area. How is your organization likely to respond? Select where your organization falls on this continuum of less to more sophisticated responses 2. IN BETWEEN
  12. 12. In Sum….. Framing 1.1 Know your audience 1.2 Map the innovation landscape 1.3 Set your time horizon 1.4 Degree of “stretch?” Scanning 2.1 Look for changes “outside” 2.2 Talk to people 2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory 2.4 Capture the Insights 2.5 Create a trend inventory Forecasting 3.1 Cluster trends into drivers 3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build 3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces
  13. 13. Scanning
  14. 14. The Kyoto: "These Zen-like slip-ons make me feel light on my feet and lighthearted. Great for peaceful walks to and from yoga sessions." Oprah 2. Scanning: Where Are “Interesting Things” Happening? 2.1 Look for changes “outside” 2.2 Talk to people 2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory 2.4 Capture insights 2.5 Create a trend inventory Breadth Plus Depth = Foresight with Insight -- Andy Hines
  15. 15. Issue Emergence: Find Opportunities Before “ They” Do Wildcard Emerging Framed Event Legislated LitigatedMuch Influence Little Effort Little Influence Much Effort
  16. 16. 2.1 Look for Changes “Outside” Industry Organization Political EnvironmentalTechnological Economic Social “Outside”
  17. 17. Co-Creation Authenticity Experiences Self-Expression Sharing Spirituality Sustainability Example: Brands Capitalizing on External Changes
  18. 18. Finding Scanning Hits on the Web • Search Engines, e.g. Google • Syndicated Content/Feeds, RSS, Feed Demon • Alerts, e.g., Google Alerts • Target specific sites, e.g., Population Reference Bureau • Bookmarking sites, e.g., Delicious, Magnolia • Specialized software/data mining, e.g., Porter’s Technology Opportunity Analysis • Databases, e.g., Lexis-Nexis • 3rd Party Services, e.g., Social Technologies
  19. 19. 2.2 Talk to People • If I could answer any question for you, what would it be? • If you looked back from 10 years hence, and told the triumph in the ____, what would it be? • If you looked back from 10 years hence, and told the failure in the ______ , what would it be? • What does the _______ need to forget? • What are one or two critical strategic decisions regarding the __________ on the horizon? • What are the top 2 or 3 trends driving the future of the ______? • What are the obstacles to progress in the ________? • What should I have asked that I didn’t? (at the end) Source: Global Business Network, Developing & Using Scenarios, www.gbn.com Good open-ended questions
  20. 20. 2.3 Explore Unfamiliar Territory
  21. 21. Where do you get your best ideas? Where do you typically come up with your most creative ideas….wherever that might be? Discussion: Getting Ideas
  22. 22. 2.4 Capture the Insights A complicated form for students…. …a simpler one for time-pressed organizations Understanding of brain/mind, and how to manipulate them, is growing. Neuropharmaceuticals developingTechnology BRIEF DESCRIPTIONINDICATORSCATEGORY
  23. 23. 2.5 Create a Trend Inventory Knowledge Work Workers Work Tools Work Models Work Spaces Transparency Telepresence rooms like “being there” Reverse brain drain Gen Y wants to be in charge Co-working collectives “Hotelling” Core-contractor structure Crowdsourcing “Open innovation” Free agent nation Cloud-based tools Virtual communities growing
  24. 24. In Sum….. Framing 1.1 Know your audience 1.2 Map the innovation landscape 1.3 Set your time horizon 1.4 Degree of “stretch?” Scanning 2.1 Look for changes “outside” 2.2 Talk to people 2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory 2.4 Capture the Insights 2.5 Create a trend inventory Forecasting 3.1 Cluster trends into drivers 3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build 3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces
  25. 25. Forecasting
  26. 26. Forecasting: Where Are the Attractive Spaces? 3.1 Cluster trends into drivers 3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build opportunity spaces 3.2.1 Identify key uncertainties 3.2.2 Challenge assumptions 3.2.3 Look for potential discontinuities 3.2.4 Create scenarios 3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces The surprise-free future isn’t – Herman Kahn
  27. 27. The Cone of Plausibility The Future is many, not one. Implications Past Source: Charles Taylor, Army War College Present Alternative Futures Alternative Futures Preferred Future
  28. 28. 3.1 Cluster Trends into Drivers
  29. 29. 3.2 Identify Key Uncertainties Snacking Granola Bars (Healthy) Donuts (Tasty) Personal MassUrban Transit Importance Uncertainty Settlement Patterns: Dense vs. Sprawl Environmental: Lip Service vs. Deep Green Vehicles: Electric vs. Gas Transit: Personal vs. Mass Future of Downtowns Hi Hi
  30. 30. 3.3 Challenge Assumptions Original Assumption: “This is the way the industry works.” Alternative Assumption “What if we…..” Libraries should be quiet What if we made libraries fun places where people eat, drink, and talk, as well as read and study?
  31. 31. 3.4 Look for Potential Discontinuities Dematerialization: From Pounds to Sense More and more of the value of products will come from the information content rather than the physical content. Selling by the pound makes less sense, if you can sell the sense! TREND IT1: More consumers and businesses are embracing e-commerce. TREND M1: Materials are becoming smarter. TREND EC12: Commoditization is happening faster and faster. TREND EC10: New economic measures will emerge to reflect socially desirable goals, such as environmental quality. TREND EC11: New models are emerging to explain the "new economy." TREND EN2: Products are being increasingly designed for re-use. TREND P5: "Global management" of global-scale issues is emerging. Hydrocarbon Cleaning Solvents c. 1930’s Perchloroethylene c. 1950’s Cleaning Services c. 2001 • flammable • dangerous • nonflammable • good vapor properties • neighborhood cleaners • Safetainer • recycle • provide expertise Trend to Value Added Interface Flooring Systems
  32. 32. Example: IBM Global Innovation Outlook Insights from academics, industry experts, and business leaders Define and research key trends in innovation on a global scale.
  33. 33. 3.5 Create Scenarios • A scenario is a product that describes some possible future state and/or that tells the story about how such a state might come about. – The former are referred to as end state (or even day in the life scenarios); the latter are chain of events scenarios (or future histories).
  34. 34. The Long Boom The Soft Path Source: Hines; Innovaro (www.innovaro.com) 3.5 Create Scenarios In the Long Boom world… •25 years of prosperity, freedom, and a better environment •Current recession just a speed bump •Driven by five great waves of technology: •(1) PCs •(2) telecomm • (3) biotech • (4) nanotech •(5) alternative energy In the Soft Path world… •Enoughness: consumers rethink consumption and their lives in general •Recognition of limits •Sustainability a fact of life •Grassroots-driven change
  35. 35. Sample Scenario: Communi-city http://vimeo.com/171 23084
  36. 36. In Sum… Framing 1.1 Know your audience 1.2 Map the innovation landscape 1.3 Set your time horizon 1.4 Degree of “stretch?” Scanning 2.1 Look for changes “outside” 2.2 Talk to people 2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory 2.4 Capture the Insights 2.5 Create a trend inventory Forecasting 3.1 Cluster trends into drivers 3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build 3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces
  37. 37. ActingPlanningVisioning
  38. 38. 4. Visioning, Planning ,& Acting 4.1 Implications via Futures Wheel 4.2 Actions via Start, Stop & Continue 4.3 Institutionalizing If you don’t know where you’re going, you may end up somewhere else – Yogi Berra
  39. 39. Future of Work 4.1 Implications via Futures Wheel Augmented Workers Need a policy Nearsourcing Strengthen Local ties Negotiate w/ multiple jurisdictions Training? Going beyond paycheck What fits w/ cultures What motivates workforce Revisit traditional practices Recruiting for int‟l experience Inter- generation conflict New pay practices? Success-base, % of profits Time-based Rethink hiring & firing Annual contracts? Project-based contracts Intelligence Lands Where? Integrating smartness Built-in smart infrastructure Plug & Play „Docking” Infrastructure Fairness Impossible Customization Explaining “special” treatment Need for Transparency
  40. 40. The Industry Your organization Challenge ___________ Implication _______ Alternative: Implications for Different Stakeholders Implication _______ Biz Idea Biz IdeaBiz Idea Biz Idea Implication _______ Implication _______
  41. 41. Start Stop Continue 4.2 Planning Exercise: Start, Stop & Continue
  42. 42. 4.3 Institutionalize: Push, Pull, Build • Push: Spread the word to new potential clients – Site Visits, Intranet sites, Business TV, Podcasts, Webcasts, Newsletters, Brown- Bag lunches, Futures Rooms , Sample Ideation Workshops • Pull: “Deliver the goods” and create positive “word-of-mouth” – Success breeds success – Craft a one-pager to concisely describe how you do it – Set up appointments with other functions in need of filling their innovation pipeline • Build: Grow your support network – Cultivate communities-of-practice – Developing your own training course
  43. 43. Activity Benefits FRAMING (22%) 1. Thinking more diverse open, balanced and non-biased (9%) 2. Focusing on the right questions and problems more clearly (7%) 3. Being aware of, and influencing, assumptions and mental models (6%) SCANNING (16%) 4. Understanding the context, in all its complexity, through establishing frameworks (5%) 5. Anticipating change and avoiding surprise (10%) FORECASTING (22%) 6. Producing more creative, broader, and deeper insights (16%) 7. Identifying a wider range of opportunities and options (5%) VISIONING (10%) 8. Prioritizing and making better and more robust decisions (10%) PLANNING (7%) 10. Constructing pathways from the present to the future that enable rehearsing for the future (7%) ACTING (23%) 10. Catalyzing action and change (7%) 11. Building alignment, commitment and confidence (14%) 12. Building a learning organization (2%) Benefits of Foresight
  44. 44. Recommended Books • Hines, Bishop, Thinking About the Future • Peter Schwartz, Art of the Long View • Glenn, Jerome and Gordon, Ted, Futures Research Methodology, edited by Jerome Glenn. Millennium Project, February 2003. (CD-ROM) • Coates, Mahaffie & Hines, 2025 • Wendel Bell, Foundations of FS (but only vol 1) • Ed Cornish, Futuring • Richard Slaughter, Knowledge Base of Futures Studies • Sohail Inayatullah, Questioning the Future • Alvin Toffler, Future Shock or The Third Wave • Harman, An Incomplete Guide to the Future or Global Mind Change • Bernard deJouvenel, Art of Conjecture • Petersen, John, Out of the Blue: Wild Cards and Other Big Future Surprises: How to Anticipate and Respond to Profound Change, The Arlington Institute,1997. • Kurzweil, Ray, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Viking 2005. • Meadows et al, Limits to Growth: The Thirty Year Update • William Gibson, Neuromancer, Bruce Sterling, Heavy Weather, Vernor Vinge, Across Real Time
  45. 45. Contact Info Lecturer/Executive-in-Residence ahines@uh.edu 832 367 5575 www.andyhinesight.com Andy Hines U of Houston Futures Studies

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