Student Name:________________
1. Article Title, Author, Date and Source:
Transmission Unaccomplished, John Authers September 24
th
2010 Financial Times Page 12
2. Article Summary:
“Transmission Unaccomplished” written in the Lex section of
Friday’s Financial Times
offers an interesting and simplified perspective of the complex
and sophisticated purpose and
workings of monetary policy. At a time when the world is
reeling from the effects of
misunderstood monetary policy in the United States and other
nations around the globe, this
article clearly cuts to the heart of the matter, provides a simple,
easy to understand analogy
relating monetary policy to an automobile. The authors
describe the key moving parts of the
economy as they correlate to their counterparts in an
automobile. While he labor and
resources constitute the fuel of the economy, technology and
institutions correspond to the
engine, and commerce is depicted as wheels. The financial
system is the transmission,
responsible for moving the power and energy created by the fuel
and engine to the wheels.
This simple analogy helps frame the context for the reason why
central bankers – the
transmission mechanics – were facing increasing difficulty. In
particular, the 1.6 % drop in
the dollar’s value, the lack of real economic turn-around, and
the lagging increase in GDPs
around the world. The authors seem to think the US, despite an
increasing saving rate and
10% deleveraging, still has long ways to go on the road to
recovery, and the automobile
analogy suggests, is in need of significant repairs and
rebuilding before it is truly road worthy.
3. How is the article is related to the readings and class
discussions?
The concepts in the article mesh with the readings in chapters 3
– 5 as a current, real world
depiction of how monetary policy influences decisions in
economics. The article highlights the
need for central bankers to properly manage monetary policy in
order to maintain the
transmission of the vehicle, and keep the proper amount of
power moving from the motor to the
wheels. It questions the true value of quantitative easing, and
highlights the ramifications of
pursuing excessive QE as a policy. Just as was discussed in the
first five chapters of the text
book, monetary policy involves a delicate balance of adjusting
interest rates, setting currency
value, and establishing guidelines that enable prosperity and
growth. The article also identifies
too much intervention as a possible means for enhancing the
problems we face, rather than
ameliorating the problems.
4. What did I learn from this article?
This article certainly helped put monetary policy, something I
seem to be familiar with only
through studying politics and economics, into a very concise,
easy to understand framework that
enables a deeper understanding of greater associated issues. I
learned that the US liabilities are
Student Name:________________
roughly 120% of disposable incomes, double those of the 1960’s
through 1980’s – an era with
some economic growth, and substantial economic faltering,
namely price controls, economic
limiting, inflation, and high interest rates. I also
learned/confirmed my assumption that the end
of the recession in the US is out of sight due to excessive
government intervention.
5. New Terms and Concepts and Brief Explanations:
I came across with the terms “Quantitative Easing” and “Trade
Weighted Exchange Rate” that I was not
entirely familiar with. I found the following descriptions for
these concepts.
Quantitative Easing: A government monetary policy used by
central banks to increase the money supply
by buying government securities or other securities from the
market. Net effect: QE increases the money
supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an
effort to promote increased lending and
liquidity. Used when interest rates have been lowered to near
0% and failed to produce results. Although
QE increases liquidity and availability of capital, if demand
doesn’t match supply, higher prices and
inflation are likely. (Investopedia.com)
Trade-weighted: A representation of the foreign currency price
of the US dollar or the export value of
the US dollar. Increase in the index means the value of the
dollar increases. Americans can therefore
more easily afford imports, however, US exports can be more
expensive. (investopedia.com)
SOLUTION 13,498
At zero nothing moves any more
Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Haver Analytics
Effective US Federal Funds rate (%)
Recession
1958 70 80 90 2000 10
0
5
10
15
20
1952 60 70 80 90 2000 10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Personal saving
(as % of personal
disposable income)
Household debt
(as % of personal
disposable income)
Transmission unaccomplished
The financial system is not the fuel
that drives an economy. That role is
played by labour and resources. It is
not the motor that creates
prosperity – technology and
institutions do that. Finance is more
like the transmission that moves the
energy to the wheels of commerce –
hopefully at the right speed. But the
transmission cannot help when the
wheels are stuck in the mud. That
analogy may help explain the
difficulties faced by central bankers,
the stewards of monetary
transmission.
Financial markets do respond to
prodding. A slight change in the
Federal Reserve’s wording on
Tuesday pushed the dollar down 1.6
per cent on a trade-weighted basis.
A new quantitative easing
programme could well push asset
prices higher. But huge monetary
efforts, near-zero rates and
whatever-is-needed support for the
financial system have not put the
real economy back on the growth
road. Gross domestic product in
most developed economies is still
below the 2007 peak, a much worse
record for monetary policy than in
past recessions.
Two years of very low policy rates
and asset purchases in developed
countries (two decades in Japan)
may be generating monetary energy,
but it is being lost in transmission.
US consumers appear stuck in the
mire for years to come. According
to the Bureau of Economic Affairs,
their liabilities are still about 120
per cent of disposable incomes,
down from 130 per cent before the
credit crunch hit. They have much
deleveraging to go before this ratio
falls to the 66 per cent typical from
the 1960s to the 1980s. Their saving
rate has already jumped since the
crisis, from barely 1 per cent to
6 per cent today. With little demand
for loans, the banking system is
using lower funding costs to
increase profits, and replenish
capital, rather than to lend more.
Like flooring the accelerator pedal
in a stuck vehicle, more QE may
just make the wheels spin faster in
the global muck of debt and
imbalances. There is no tow-truck
in sight.
Student Name________________ 1. Article Title, Author, Da.docx

Student Name________________ 1. Article Title, Author, Da.docx

  • 1.
    Student Name:________________ 1. ArticleTitle, Author, Date and Source: Transmission Unaccomplished, John Authers September 24 th 2010 Financial Times Page 12 2. Article Summary: “Transmission Unaccomplished” written in the Lex section of Friday’s Financial Times offers an interesting and simplified perspective of the complex and sophisticated purpose and workings of monetary policy. At a time when the world is reeling from the effects of misunderstood monetary policy in the United States and other nations around the globe, this article clearly cuts to the heart of the matter, provides a simple, easy to understand analogy relating monetary policy to an automobile. The authors describe the key moving parts of the economy as they correlate to their counterparts in an
  • 2.
    automobile. While helabor and resources constitute the fuel of the economy, technology and institutions correspond to the engine, and commerce is depicted as wheels. The financial system is the transmission, responsible for moving the power and energy created by the fuel and engine to the wheels. This simple analogy helps frame the context for the reason why central bankers – the transmission mechanics – were facing increasing difficulty. In particular, the 1.6 % drop in the dollar’s value, the lack of real economic turn-around, and the lagging increase in GDPs around the world. The authors seem to think the US, despite an increasing saving rate and 10% deleveraging, still has long ways to go on the road to recovery, and the automobile analogy suggests, is in need of significant repairs and rebuilding before it is truly road worthy. 3. How is the article is related to the readings and class discussions? The concepts in the article mesh with the readings in chapters 3 – 5 as a current, real world
  • 3.
    depiction of howmonetary policy influences decisions in economics. The article highlights the need for central bankers to properly manage monetary policy in order to maintain the transmission of the vehicle, and keep the proper amount of power moving from the motor to the wheels. It questions the true value of quantitative easing, and highlights the ramifications of pursuing excessive QE as a policy. Just as was discussed in the first five chapters of the text book, monetary policy involves a delicate balance of adjusting interest rates, setting currency value, and establishing guidelines that enable prosperity and growth. The article also identifies too much intervention as a possible means for enhancing the problems we face, rather than ameliorating the problems. 4. What did I learn from this article? This article certainly helped put monetary policy, something I seem to be familiar with only through studying politics and economics, into a very concise, easy to understand framework that
  • 4.
    enables a deeperunderstanding of greater associated issues. I learned that the US liabilities are Student Name:________________ roughly 120% of disposable incomes, double those of the 1960’s through 1980’s – an era with some economic growth, and substantial economic faltering, namely price controls, economic limiting, inflation, and high interest rates. I also learned/confirmed my assumption that the end of the recession in the US is out of sight due to excessive government intervention. 5. New Terms and Concepts and Brief Explanations: I came across with the terms “Quantitative Easing” and “Trade Weighted Exchange Rate” that I was not entirely familiar with. I found the following descriptions for these concepts. Quantitative Easing: A government monetary policy used by central banks to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market. Net effect: QE increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and
  • 5.
    liquidity. Used wheninterest rates have been lowered to near 0% and failed to produce results. Although QE increases liquidity and availability of capital, if demand doesn’t match supply, higher prices and inflation are likely. (Investopedia.com) Trade-weighted: A representation of the foreign currency price of the US dollar or the export value of the US dollar. Increase in the index means the value of the dollar increases. Americans can therefore more easily afford imports, however, US exports can be more expensive. (investopedia.com) SOLUTION 13,498 At zero nothing moves any more Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Haver Analytics Effective US Federal Funds rate (%) Recession 1958 70 80 90 2000 10 0 5 10
  • 6.
    15 20 1952 60 7080 90 2000 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
  • 7.
    Personal saving (as %of personal disposable income) Household debt (as % of personal disposable income) Transmission unaccomplished The financial system is not the fuel that drives an economy. That role is played by labour and resources. It is not the motor that creates prosperity – technology and institutions do that. Finance is more like the transmission that moves the energy to the wheels of commerce – hopefully at the right speed. But the transmission cannot help when the wheels are stuck in the mud. That analogy may help explain the difficulties faced by central bankers, the stewards of monetary transmission. Financial markets do respond to prodding. A slight change in the Federal Reserve’s wording on Tuesday pushed the dollar down 1.6 per cent on a trade-weighted basis. A new quantitative easing programme could well push asset prices higher. But huge monetary efforts, near-zero rates and whatever-is-needed support for the financial system have not put the
  • 8.
    real economy backon the growth road. Gross domestic product in most developed economies is still below the 2007 peak, a much worse record for monetary policy than in past recessions. Two years of very low policy rates and asset purchases in developed countries (two decades in Japan) may be generating monetary energy, but it is being lost in transmission. US consumers appear stuck in the mire for years to come. According to the Bureau of Economic Affairs, their liabilities are still about 120 per cent of disposable incomes, down from 130 per cent before the credit crunch hit. They have much deleveraging to go before this ratio falls to the 66 per cent typical from the 1960s to the 1980s. Their saving rate has already jumped since the crisis, from barely 1 per cent to 6 per cent today. With little demand for loans, the banking system is using lower funding costs to increase profits, and replenish capital, rather than to lend more. Like flooring the accelerator pedal in a stuck vehicle, more QE may just make the wheels spin faster in the global muck of debt and imbalances. There is no tow-truck in sight.