As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee has embarked on another round of planned asset purchases. In its November 3 policy statement, the FOMC wrote that it expects to buy another $600 billion in long-term Treasuries by the end of 2Q11 ($75 billion per month), in addition to the $35 billion per month in reinvested principal payments from its portfolio of mortgage-backed securities. There has been much criticism of the move in the financial press. Certainly, there are risks in the Fed’s strategy. However, it’s hardly reckless or ill-advised.
Despite hopes that the anti-QE rhetoric would die down, the noise continued last week, and unfortunately, become more political. One of the key aspects of the Fed is its independence. The Fed is answerable to Congress, and ultimately, to the American people. However, it is not controlled by Congress – nor would we want it to be controlled by Congress. Attacks on the Fed and its latest round of asset purchases aren’t helping.
The Fed’s surprise September decision not to taper its bond buying program complicates the development and reliability of consensus policy expectations. We believe the current decline in labor participation may be more structural than cyclical, which could lead to rapid policy tightening at some point in 2014. We believe longer duration-oriented indexes, and fixed income approaches that align closely with them, present inordinately high risks to investors in the current environment.
If U.S. politics do not derail the recovery, pent-up demand can drive faster economic growth. Fixed-income outflows appear likely to continue, pushing rates higher.
We expect rate volatility to remain high as Fed tapering continues and as the U.S. labor market struggles to normalize. In Europe, the European Central Bank has moved a step closer to easier monetary policy, which may drive further spread compression in peripheral sovereign bonds. Recent stability in emerging-market asset markets suggests better data for developing countries could be on the horizon. Our outlook for credit, prepayment, and liquidity risks remains positive.
Despite hopes that the anti-QE rhetoric would die down, the noise continued last week, and unfortunately, become more political. One of the key aspects of the Fed is its independence. The Fed is answerable to Congress, and ultimately, to the American people. However, it is not controlled by Congress – nor would we want it to be controlled by Congress. Attacks on the Fed and its latest round of asset purchases aren’t helping.
The Fed’s surprise September decision not to taper its bond buying program complicates the development and reliability of consensus policy expectations. We believe the current decline in labor participation may be more structural than cyclical, which could lead to rapid policy tightening at some point in 2014. We believe longer duration-oriented indexes, and fixed income approaches that align closely with them, present inordinately high risks to investors in the current environment.
If U.S. politics do not derail the recovery, pent-up demand can drive faster economic growth. Fixed-income outflows appear likely to continue, pushing rates higher.
We expect rate volatility to remain high as Fed tapering continues and as the U.S. labor market struggles to normalize. In Europe, the European Central Bank has moved a step closer to easier monetary policy, which may drive further spread compression in peripheral sovereign bonds. Recent stability in emerging-market asset markets suggests better data for developing countries could be on the horizon. Our outlook for credit, prepayment, and liquidity risks remains positive.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and subsequent Great Recession constituted the worst shocks to the United States economy in generations. Books have been and will be written about the housing bubble and bust, the financial panic that followed, the economic devastation that resulted, and the steps that various arms of the U.S. and foreign governments took to prevent the Great Depression 2.0. But the story can also be told graphically, as these charts aim to do.
What comes quickly into focus is that as the crisis intensified, so did the government’s response. Although the seeds of the harrowing events of 2007-2009 were sown over decades, and the U.S. government was initially slow to act, the combined efforts of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and other agencies were ultimately forceful, flexible, and effective. Federal regulators greatly expanded their crisis management toolkit as the damage unfolded, moving from traditional and domestic measures to actions that were innovative and sometimes even international in reach. As panic spread, so too did their efforts broaden to quell it. In the end, the government was able to stabilize the system, re-start key financial markets, and limit the extent of the harm to the economy.
No collection of charts, even as extensive as this, can convey all the complexities and details of the crisis and the government’s interventions. But these figures capture the essential features of one of the worst episodes in American economic history and the ultimately successful, even if politically unpopular, government response.
Mr. bernanke when is qe3 going to workgloriasimmon
Three strikes and you’re out! Too bad the Federal Reserve doesn’t follow this; otherwise, Chairman Ben Bernanke would be on the phone with Wall Street looking for another job.
The key stock indices surged to their highest levels in years after the Federal Reserve launched a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) at the September meeting; yet the follow-through has been non-existent, as stocks are back where they were prior to the announcement.
The global economy is improving overall, with the U.S. and U.K. leading the way. We expect higher GDP growth from the U.S. to support risk assets in the third quarter. We continue to expect a rise in U.S. interest rates in 2014, though eurozone policy may help slow a near-term increase. We favor credit, prepayment, and liquidity risks, which we express in allocations to mezzanine CMBS, peripheral European sovereigns, select EM sovereigns, and interest-only (IO) CMOs.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Markets have had to contend with slowing global trade and growth, collapsing EM currencies, commodity prices and equity markets topped off by Brazil’s credit rating downgrade to junk status and a surprise renminbi devaluation.
Perhaps most problematic has been policy-makers’ lack of direction and vision. The US is gripped by election fever and the ever growing list of presidential candidates. The Chinese government and central bank have multiplied policies to deal with slowing growth and wild stock-market gyrations, so far with seemingly limited success. The eurozone – still reeling from the Greek debacle – is divided about how to deal with an immigration and refugee crisis. The UK is pondering the implications of a newly elected extreme left-wing opposition leader and a likely referendum on EU accession while the Bank of England blows hot and cold on whether to start thinking about hiking rates. On the other side of the world Australia has got its fifth prime minister in five years.
But it’s arguably the US Federal Reserve’s lack of a unified message which has kept markets on tenterhooks ahead of Thursday’s policy meeting.
Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with almost $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios. Agcapita publishes a monthly Agriculture Brief which deals with agriculture specific investment issues along with big picture macro-economic issues.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and subsequent Great Recession constituted the worst shocks to the United States economy in generations. Books have been and will be written about the housing bubble and bust, the financial panic that followed, the economic devastation that resulted, and the steps that various arms of the U.S. and foreign governments took to prevent the Great Depression 2.0. But the story can also be told graphically, as these charts aim to do.
What comes quickly into focus is that as the crisis intensified, so did the government’s response. Although the seeds of the harrowing events of 2007-2009 were sown over decades, and the U.S. government was initially slow to act, the combined efforts of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and other agencies were ultimately forceful, flexible, and effective. Federal regulators greatly expanded their crisis management toolkit as the damage unfolded, moving from traditional and domestic measures to actions that were innovative and sometimes even international in reach. As panic spread, so too did their efforts broaden to quell it. In the end, the government was able to stabilize the system, re-start key financial markets, and limit the extent of the harm to the economy.
No collection of charts, even as extensive as this, can convey all the complexities and details of the crisis and the government’s interventions. But these figures capture the essential features of one of the worst episodes in American economic history and the ultimately successful, even if politically unpopular, government response.
Mr. bernanke when is qe3 going to workgloriasimmon
Three strikes and you’re out! Too bad the Federal Reserve doesn’t follow this; otherwise, Chairman Ben Bernanke would be on the phone with Wall Street looking for another job.
The key stock indices surged to their highest levels in years after the Federal Reserve launched a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) at the September meeting; yet the follow-through has been non-existent, as stocks are back where they were prior to the announcement.
The global economy is improving overall, with the U.S. and U.K. leading the way. We expect higher GDP growth from the U.S. to support risk assets in the third quarter. We continue to expect a rise in U.S. interest rates in 2014, though eurozone policy may help slow a near-term increase. We favor credit, prepayment, and liquidity risks, which we express in allocations to mezzanine CMBS, peripheral European sovereigns, select EM sovereigns, and interest-only (IO) CMOs.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Markets have had to contend with slowing global trade and growth, collapsing EM currencies, commodity prices and equity markets topped off by Brazil’s credit rating downgrade to junk status and a surprise renminbi devaluation.
Perhaps most problematic has been policy-makers’ lack of direction and vision. The US is gripped by election fever and the ever growing list of presidential candidates. The Chinese government and central bank have multiplied policies to deal with slowing growth and wild stock-market gyrations, so far with seemingly limited success. The eurozone – still reeling from the Greek debacle – is divided about how to deal with an immigration and refugee crisis. The UK is pondering the implications of a newly elected extreme left-wing opposition leader and a likely referendum on EU accession while the Bank of England blows hot and cold on whether to start thinking about hiking rates. On the other side of the world Australia has got its fifth prime minister in five years.
But it’s arguably the US Federal Reserve’s lack of a unified message which has kept markets on tenterhooks ahead of Thursday’s policy meeting.
Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with almost $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios. Agcapita publishes a monthly Agriculture Brief which deals with agriculture specific investment issues along with big picture macro-economic issues.
Loan growth plays a key role in economic expansion. Simply put: no loan growth, no economic growth. However, there’s a downside. Debt doesn’t matter until it does. Debt has played a key part in the economic downturn and in the gradual recovery. Europe’s sovereign debt crisis has continued to escalate, with no easy way out. In the U.S., the government has borrowed more, but the markets have not punished it for doing so. There’s no sign that that is going to change anytime soon.
Later this month, Fed Chairman Bernanke will hold his first post-FOMC meeting press conference. Officially, the press conference is meant “to present the Federal Open Market Committee's current economic projections and to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions.” However, the real goal is to reclaim the narrative. The Fed was caught off guard by the amount of criticism and second-guessing it received in 2010. Fed Chairman Bernanke tried hard to counter that, appearing on 60 Minutes, speaking to trade groups, and so on. These press conferences should help clear things up regarding monetary policy – not that we’ll receive clear signals of future Fed policy moves – rather, we’ll get important information on how the Fed will decide what to do.
The November Employment Report was poor, but “good” relative to expectations. The pace of job losses has moderated considerably since the early part of the year. Still, job losses continued in most industries last month. The unemployment rate fell back, but the number of unemployed – and those out of work for more than half a year – remained elevated. Yet, there’s hope. The pickup in temp-help payrolls and an increase in average weekly hours hint at new hiring in the months ahead.
The Economic Outlook – In A Holding PatternJeff Green
Recent economic figures have been consistent with the view of lackluster-to-moderate growth in the near term – not a recession, although the risk of a renewed downturn remains. Whether the U.S. slips back into recession depends on a number of factors: gasoline prices, developments in Europe, and policies that may or may not come out of Washington, D.C.
The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on Tuesday to set monetary policy. The Fed is widely expected to leave short-term interest rates unchanged and the wording of the economic assessment should be largely the same as in the previous statement. However, we could see another round of asset purchases or some changes to the Fed’s communications.
Commodity prices have moved sharply higher over the last several months, leading to increased worries that the Fed is “behind the curve,” “debasing the currency,” or “monetizing the debt.” Such fears are based on a poor understanding of the inflation process and how the Fed conducts monetary policy.
The June Employment Report was disappointing. Nonfarm payrolls rose less than expected. Figures for April and May were revised lower. Average weekly hours declined. Temp-help employment fell. There were no bright spots. That doesn’t mean that the economy won’t recover in the second half, but headwinds will prevent growth from being a lot stronger.
Japan’s earthquake/tsunami/nuclear tragedy and heightened tensions in the Middle East and North Africa have led to some concerns about the global economy, and in turn, the strength of the U.S. recovery. A weaker Japanese economy and supply-chain disruptions are detrimental to U.S. growth, but moderately and only short-term in nature. Developments in the Middle East and North Africa are more uncertain, but are likely to keep oil prices relatively elevated. None of this is expected to jeopardize the U.S. recovery, but it could keep growth from being as strong as was hoped for just a month ago.
The November Employment Report was disappointing. The stock market had set its sights high, anticipating stronger growth in nonfarm payrolls and a steady unemployment rate. Moreover, market participants seemed to be hoping for an upside surprise relative to the consensus forecast. The holiday shopping season apparently got off to a strong start, but that failed to translate into a corresponding jump in retail employment (at least, on a seasonally adjusted basis). Manufacturing jobs were soft. State and local government continued to shed jobs, reflecting budget strains. What’s in store for 2011? The November jobs data aren’t encouraging, but the recovery is likely to remain on track.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
What recent and past actions have Canada and the US taken to counter.pdfmeejuhaszjasmynspe52
What recent and past actions have Canada and the US taken to counteract their exchange rates
with the economy in such distress over the past 10 years?
Solution
Since 2007, the world has experienced a period of severe financial stress, not seen since the time
of the Great Depression. This crisis started with the collapse of the subprime residential
mortgage market in the United States and spread to the rest of the world through exposure to
U.S. real estate assets, often in the form of complex financial derivatives, and a collapse in global
trade. Many countries were significantly affected by these adverse shocks, causing systemic
banking crises in a number of countries, despite extraordinary policy interventions. Systemic
banking crises are disruptive events not only to financial systems but to the economy as a whole.
Such crises are not specific to the recent past or specific countries – almost no country has
avoided the experience and some have had multiple banking crises. While the banking crises of
the past have differed in terms of underlying causes, triggers, and economic impact, they share
many commonalities. Banking crises are often preceded by prolonged periods of high credit
growth and are often associated with large imbalances in the balance sheets of the private sector,
such as maturity mismatches or exchange rate risk, that ultimately translate into credit risk for
the banking sector.
Crisis management starts with the containment of liquidity pressures through liquidity support,
guarantees on bank liabilities, deposit freezes, or bank holidays. This containment phase is
followed by a resolution phase during which typically a broad range of measures (such as capital
injections, asset purchases, and guarantees) are taken to restructure banks and reignite economic
growth. It is intrinsically difficult to compare the success of crisis resolution policies given
differences across countries and time in the size of the initial shock to the financial system, the
size of the financial system, the quality of institutions, and the intensity and scope of policy
interventions. With this caveat we now compare policy responses during the recent crisis episode
with those of the past. The policy responses during the 2007-2009 crises episodes were broadly
similar to those used in the past. First, liquidity pressures were contained through liquidity
support and guarantees on bank liabilities. Like the crises of the past, during which bank
holidays and deposit freezes have rarely been used as containment policies, we have no records
of the use of bank holidays during the recent wave of crises, while a deposit freeze was used only
in the case of Latvia for deposits in Parex Bank. On the resolution side, a wide array of
instruments was used this time, including asset purchases, asset guarantees, and equity injections.
All these measures have been used in the past, but this time around they seem to have been put in
place quicker (for detailed informatio.
Degroof Petercam Asset Management's chief economist and asset allocator look into whether the reflation trade is for real and inflation is back in the cards.
Market Outlooks
We leverage a global network of investment consultants and researchers to deliver industry specific knowledge and dynamic tools, which allows our clients to make informed strategic investment decisions.
Signs of inflation will raise the stakes for the Fed’s policy communications. Favorable conditions for leveraged strategies could reverse quickly. Reasonable valuations and the Fed’s policy goals continue to support risk assets.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Over the past thirty years the neutral real interest rate across developed economies has declined substantially. Evidence suggests that secular rather than transitory factors are driving its decline. A lower neutral interest rate implies that the cumulative amount of tightening required for monetary policy to become neutral is much smaller than previously thought.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Question 1Response 1Development inside and out effects t.docxaudeleypearl
Question 1:
Response 1:
Development inside and out effects the entire country's economy. It impacts the managing body, regardless the clearly irrelevant subtleties in the average person's dependably life. Both a conditions and clear deferred results of how the economy is getting along, swelling has the two its fans and spoilers. Distinctive envisions that particular degrees of swelling are helpful for a prospering economy, yet that progressively critical rates raise concerns. It can degrade the money basically and, at logically lamentable, has been a key part to subsidences.
Swelling, as referenced, is the rate a worth ascensions, and fundamentally how much the dollar is worth at a given moment concerning checking. The idea behind swelling being an impact for good in the economy is that a reasonable enough rate can nudge financial movement without debasing the money so much that it ends up being basically vain (Kohn, 2006).
Swelling can in like manner falter from asset for asset. Subordinate upon the season, the expense of gas could go up independently from with everything considered headway as it routinely does as summer moves close. In reality, there is even a term - focus improvement - for swelling that parts in everything except for sustenance and imperativeness (gas and oil), as these regions have separate factors that add to them. There are a wide degree of sorts of swelling, subordinate upon what remarkable is being viewed comparatively as what the development rate truly is by all accounts. For example, what happens if the swelling rate is well over the Fed's normal goal? At a higher rate, yet still in the single digits, that is known as walking swelling. It is seen as concerning yet sensible (Ball, 2006).
Swelling is generally depicted reliant on its rate and causes. By and large, Inflation happens in an economy when vitality for thing and experiences outmaneuvers the supply of yield. in this manner, clarifications behind Inflation have different sides, the intrigue side and supply side. The widely inclusive activity of hazard premiums in driving enlargement pay over the scope of advancing years is dependable with secured budgetary improvement and inside and out oblige cash related procedure events in the moved economies. The degree for further fitting budgetary enabling seen with money related stars seems to have declined amidst the enough low advance charges and gigantic monetary records of national banks (Bodie, 2016).
In relentless time, the correspondence of perils has wound up being constantly phenomenal, the general point of view has lit up, and money related conditions have engaged on net. With the work superstar proceeding to reinforce, and GDP improvement expected to keep up a vital good ways from back in the consequent quarter, it likely will be fitting soon to change the affiliation supports rate. Likewise, if the economy propels as shown by the SEP concentrate way, the affiliation supports rate will probably app ...
The American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012Jeff Green
The new year began with some political drama, as last-minute negotiations attempted to avert sending the nation over the "fiscal cliff." Technically, we actually did go over the cliff, however briefly, as a host of tax provisions and automatic spending cuts took effect at the stroke of midnight on December 31, 2012.
Time Running Out for Large Gifts in 2012Jeff Green
Currently, the exemptions for federal gift tax, estate tax, and generation-skipping transfer (GST) tax are at historic highs, and the gift, estate, and GST tax rates are at historic lows. But, in 2013, the exemptions are scheduled to substantially decrease, and the tax rates are scheduled to substantially increase. This raises the question of whether 2012 might be a good time to make large gifts that take advantage of the current large exemptions while they are still available.
What is the "fiscal cliff"? It's the term being used by many to describe the unique combination of tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to go into effect on January 1, 2013. The ominous term reflects the belief by some that, taken together, higher taxes and decreased spending at the levels prescribed have the potential to derail the economy. Whether we do indeed step off the cliff at the end of the year, and what exactly that will mean for the economy, depends on several factors.
What Does the Supreme Court Ruling on the Health-Care Reform Law Mean for You?Jeff Green
On June 28, 2012, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled, in a landmark decision, that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), including the provision that most Americans carry health insurance or pay a penalty, is constitutional.
It's no secret that what's happening in Europe is driving financial markets worldwide. Even if you have a sound asset allocation strategy and a well-diversified portfolio, it's hard to ignore the fact that this summer seems to have the potential for turbulence. Markets dislike uncertainty, and at this point uncertainty is high, particularly in advance of the June 17 elections scheduled in Greece.
The S&P 500 (SPX) has tested 1366 on the upside twice, and not had any success even hanging around this level, as it’s been pushed down quickly both times. This doesn’t bode well for an upside resolution in the near term, but it’s certainly a possibility.
Background
As 401(k) plans have become more popular, plan participants have become increasingly responsible for making their own retirement savings decisions. The Department of Labor (DOL) has become concerned that participants in self-directed 401(k) plans (those that allow participants to direct the investment of their own accounts) might not have access to, or might not be considering, information critical to making informed decisions about the management of their accounts--particularly information on investment choices, fees, and expenses.
A positive sign that has come as a result of the back and forth action in the markets over the past couple of weeks is the emergence of a triangle pattern in the S&P 500 (SPX). A triangle pattern, in and of itself, is neither a bullish pattern nor a bearish pattern until the pattern has completed.
Faster than a speeding tortoise, more powerful than suntan lotion, unable to leap small objects in a single bound – the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction (aka “the super committee”) is stumbling toward its November 23 deadline.
Two clouds hung over the financial markets in the late summer: worries about a European financial crisis and concerns that the U.S. economy might be tipping back into recession. Real GDP rose at a 2.5% annual rate in the advance estimate for 3Q11, which should put to rest fears that the U.S. economy has already entered recession. However, there are still some important uncertainties in the growth outlook for 2012. European leaders dodged a bullet last week, with the agreement on Greek debt (failure would have triggered a more immediate crisis). However, they did not put a number of problems to bed completely. So, how long will the good feelings last?
The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policymaking arm, will meet on November 2-3. Clearly, there are some differences of opinion among senior Fed officials regarding the appropriate path for monetary policy. However, the dissenters (those wanting to do less) are a small minority. The FOMC will come together with a somewhat less troublesome near-term economic outlook (no recession in the near term), but there are more concerns about growth in 2012.
Later this month, the government will release the advance estimate of 3Q11 GDP growth. There are uncertainties in that estimate – inventories and foreign trade make up a relatively small part of the economy, but account for much of the quarterly variation in GDP growth. We already have a good idea regarding the “meat and potatoes” of that report. Consumer spending and business fixed investment expanded further in the third quarter, suggesting no recession in the near term. However, the economic outlook for 2012 is a lot less clear.
In the last few months, some have taken to calling the current economic period, “the Lesser Depression” (instead of “the Great Recession”). There’s no precise definition of “a depression” (and as it is, the definition of “a recession” is rather vague). Most economists would say a depression is a lengthy period of elevated unemployment. That’s exactly what we may be staring out now. Monetary and fiscal policy could provide further support for growth, but there’s a lot of resistance.
After all the debate in recent weeks over issues related to raising the nation's debt limit, it's hard to know exactly what might happen after August 2. Borrowing represents more than 40% of the nation's expenses, and any default on the country's obligations would be unprecedented.
Is there a fate worse than debt? If there is, it seems to be not dealing with the debt. When there is too much leverage in the system, there is always a risk that things go wrong quickly and unexpectedly. Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart have an op-ed piece on Bloomberg today about the debt overhang and its implications for economic growth. They are among the few commentators who have been consistently correct about the path of the financial crisis, probably because they are among the few who have studied the actual data.
The debt ceiling crisis heated up last week, as Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s threatened to lower the credit rating on U.S. debt. The financial markets appeared not to notice or to care, but may simply be expressing a confidence that the debt ceiling will be raised in time. After all, we’ve been here before. As dysfunctional as Washington is, lawmakers aren’t foolish enough to cause a self-inflicted financial calamity. Or are they?
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Weekly Commentary by Dr. Scott Brown
The Fed’s Asset Purchases
November 8 – November 12, 2010
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee has embarked on another round of planned asset purchases. In its
November 3 policy statement, the FOMC wrote that it expects to buy another $600 billion in long-term Treasuries by
the end of 2Q11 ($75 billion per month), in addition to the $35 billion per month in reinvested principal payments
from its portfolio of mortgage-backed securities. There has been much criticism of the move in the financial press.
Certainly, there are risks in the Fed’s strategy. However, it’s hardly reckless or ill-advised.
2. The Federal Open Market Desk in New York plans to distribute its purchases across the following eight maturity
sectors based on the approximate weights below:
Nominal Coupon Securities by Maturity Range TIPS
1½ -2½
Years
2½-4 Years
4-5½
Years
5½-7
Years
7-10
Years
10-17
Years
17-30
Years
1½-30
Years
5% 20% 20% 23% 23% 2% 4% 3%
Why it the Fed expanding its balance sheet? The economy is in a liquidity trap. Short-term nominal interest rates are
near 0%. In a liquidity trap, fiscal policy is more effective at boosting growth than monetary policy. However, with
fiscal stimulus unavailable, or possibly negative, monetary policy is the only game in town – and it can be effective,
not through increasing the money supply, but by altering expectations.
Quantitative easing is not something that the Fed just made up. It’s textbook economics (granted, at the upper
division or gradual level). People have been thinking seriously about liquidity traps and how to get out of them for a
long time. That doesn’t mean there aren’t controversies. Plenty of smart people have their doubts. However,
comments that quantitative easing is “reckless,” “financial heroin,” or other such nonsense are not based on any
theory of monetary policy.
So why is the Fed doing this? Basically, it’s real interest rates that matter. Inflation is too low, making real interest
rates too high. The Fed’s actions should lift inflation expectations (and apparently already have). Lower real interest
rates are stimulative. And as mentioned, fiscal stimulus is unavailable.
So what are the legitimate worries about quantitative easing? The Fed has relatively little experience with this. The
Fed’s first round of asset purchases (mostly mortgage-backed securities) was helpful in stabilizing the financial
system, largely because the Fed bought mortgage-backed securities when nobody else would. This second round is
different. Many fear that the Fed could be too successful in raising the inflation rate and could possibly generate
hyperinflation. However, the key here is the independence of the Fed and its commitment to keep inflation low over
the long run. The federal government has been generating more debt and the Fed is taking down some of that debt,
but those are separate decisions. In a Washington Post op-ed, Fed Chairman Bernanke wrote that the Fed has the
tools to unwind these policies at the appropriate time and “will take all measures necessary to keep inflation low and
stable.” Ironically, the commitment to keep inflation low over the long term diminishes the effectiveness of its asset
purchases (because the goal is to increase inflation expectations). However, the Fed’s strong commitment to low
inflation signals that it won’t let things get out of hand.
One consequence of increased asset purchases (or any monetary policy easing) is higher commodity prices and a
somewhat softer dollar. However, a weaker dollar is not the goal (remember that the exchange rate of the dollar is the
Treasury’s responsibility, not the Fed’s).
Many worry about a possible bubble in the emerging economies (Latin America, East Asia, etc.). Following the global
financial crisis capital flows to these countries picked up. Certainly, this bears watching in the months ahead.
Does the stronger-than-expected Establishment Survey data (from the October Employment Report) change the
outlook? Not much. Private-sector payrolls averaged a 136,000 gain over the last three months – that’s enough to
keep the unemployment rate steady over time, but not enough to push it significantly lower. Job growth is still much
too slow.
In his Washington Post op-ed, Bernanke wrote that “the Federal Reserve cannot solve all the economy's problems on
its own. That will take time and the combined efforts of many parties, including the central bank, Congress, the
administration, regulators, and the private sector. But the Federal Reserve has a particular obligation to help
promote increased employment and sustain price stability. Steps taken this week should help us fulfill that
obligation.”
3. More Of The Same
November 1 – November 5, 2010
Real GDP rose about as expected in the third quarter. Details were mixed, but remained consistent with the view that
the pace of growth, while still positive, is subpar – far below a rate that would be associated with a significant
reduction in unemployment. What to expect from here? More of the same, most likely. The economy continues to face
a number of serious headwinds, but the recovery is likely to remain on track.
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. The good news is that the recovery, which began in June 2009, has
continued. The economy is growing. The bad news is that it’s not growing fast enough. We need to see real GDP
growth on the order of 4%, 5%, or 6% to put much of a dent in the unemployment rate. Real GDP rose 3.1% over the
four quarters ending 3Q10, but a good chunk of that was an inventory rebound. Imports have a negative sign in the
GDP calculations, and higher imports in the last two quarters have subtracted significantly from overall GDP growth.
Domestic Final Sales (GDP less net exports and the change in inventories) rose 2.1% y/y, better in the last two
quarters (a 3.4% annual rate) than in the previous two quarters (+0.8%).
So what’s holding the recovery back? In a typical business cycle, the Fed raises short-term interest rates to cool
inflation pressures, often leading to a downturn in the overall economy (a recession). The Fed then lowers interest
rates and the economy recovers. However, the current downturn was not caused by higher interest rates. In turn, a
reduction in interest rates should not be expected to turn things around right away. Recessions that are caused by
financial crises tend to be long and severe – the recoveries tend to be very gradual. Simply put, it takes time to repair
household and business balance sheets. That process is well underway, but it is far from over. Plenty of cash lying
around, but there is still a crisis of confidence.
Residential housing problems clearly remain. Delinquencies and foreclosures are likely to remain elevated for some
time. Residential homebuilding is a fairly small part of the overall economy (normally about 4.5% of GDP, it rose to a
little over 6% of GDP during the boom, and is now about 2.5% of GDP). During the previous decade, many households
extracted equity as home values were rising. Some of that went to home improvements, some went to pay down other
forms of debt, and some was simply spent (boosting consumer spending and helping to offset a negative drag from
higher gasoline prices). That game is over. Consumer spending is now back to being driven mostly by job growth,
which hasn’t been spectacular.
4. The personal savings rate is a flawed statistic, subject to large revisions, but recent figures suggest that households are
saving more than they were before the financial crisis (or equivalently, are paying down debt). The increase in savings
made the downturn more severe than it would have been otherwise (since one person’s spending is another person’s
income). It remains unclear whether the savings rate will settle where it is, decrease somewhat, or head higher.
The business outlook is mixed. Corporate profits have rebounded in the economic recovery, helping to fuel spending
on business equipment and software – but not new hiring. Smaller firms are still subject to tight credit and we
normally look to the smaller, newer firms to account for a lot of the job growth during an expansion. That’s not
happening currently.
Many investors are likely to be encouraged by the election results this week. However, gridlock in Washington means
that little is likely to get done in the near term. While austerity is well meant, history shows that raising taxes in a soft
recovery is a bad idea. Will there be a compromise on taxes before the end of the year? It’s hard to say, but the
uncertainty will remain a negative for the economy and for the markets. Higher taxes may dampen growth, but
growth should stay positive in 2011.
Key Dates Approaching
October 25 – October 29, 2010
The first week of November looms large for the markets. The November 2 mid-term elections are expected to result in
a power shift on Capitol Hill – but how much will actually change? The Fed’s November 3 monetary policy decision
has important implications for interest rates, the dollar, and the economy in general. The October Employment
Report (due November 5) will help shape the near-term economic outlook and set expectations for future Fed policy
moves.
For those of you who slept through civics class in high school, recall that all 435 seats in the House of Representatives
are contested every two years. Senators serve six-year terms – so about of third of the 100 seats in the Senate are
contested every two years (37 seats are being contested this year, due to the death of Robert Byrd and the resignations
of Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton). As we head toward the wire, there are a number of close races. Recent polling
suggests that the Republicans have a good chance of regaining a majority in the House and a small chance of taking
control of the Senate.
Will the election results change anything in Washington? It will in the House, where a simple majority is needed to
pass legislation. The Senate is more complicated. As it is now, the Democrats have a 59 seat in the Senate, one short of
a supermajority. You need 60 votes in the Senate to avoid the threat of a filibuster – and thus, you need 60 votes just
5. to be able to vote on a bill. In addition, one senator can put a hold on any or all legislation, meaning that the floor
leader is informed that the senator does not want a particular bill to come to the floor for a vote (and implicitly
threatens a filibuster of any motion to consider the measure). So, anyone believing that a Republican victory will lead
to a dramatic change in the direction of legislation will be disappointed.
Yet, perceptions matter. The stock market is likely to view a Republican majority in the House as a check on the White
House. During the Clinton years, gridlock was good. The Republicans didn’t get massive tax cuts and the Democrats
didn’t get any major spending programs, and we ended up with a federal budget surplus (the Clinton era was also well
served by PAYGO rules, which required any legislative changes to be budget neutral). However, in the current
environment, stuff might actually need to get done to boost the economy. While there are bound to be disagreements
about the best way to do this, nothing significant is likely to get done.
The Fed’s November 3 policy decision is not a done deal. There are differences of opinion, but most Fed officials,
including Chairman Bernanke, have been leaning toward further monetary accommodation. The key element is
expected to be an announcement to purchase a specified amount of long-term Treasuries over a certain period of
time. This should be on a much smaller scale than in the first round of credit easing ($1.25 trillion in mortgage-
backed securities and $300 billion in Treasuries purchased last year), allowing the Fed more flexibility (to do more if
needed or to stop if growth picks up). Will quantitative easing be inflationary? Yes, hopefully – at least to some extent.
Inflation is too low for the Fed’s comfort. It’s real (that is, inflation-adjusted) interest rates that matter. The drop in
inflation expectations has lifted real rates, dampening the pace of economic growth. Raising inflation expectations
would lower real rates, stimulating growth. Still, it’s not an easy decision. There are positives and negatives to just
about any Fed policy decision. Many fear that the Fed will not be able to withdraw accommodation in time and fuel
substantial higher inflation in the future. However, officials are confident that the Fed can drain bank reserves in a
timely manner when appropriate. The Fed has spent much of this year testing the exits (reverse repos, term deposits
for depository institutions).
The Federal Open Market Committee may announce efforts beyond asset purchases. It may commit to a longer period
of low short-term interest rates. It could also announce an inflation target or a target rate for long-term Treasury
yields.
After the shock and awe of the mid-term elections and the Fed policy decision, the financial markets will face the
October Employment Report. The impact of the 2010 census is behind us. Since January 2009, federal government
payrolls have risen a bit less than the rate of population growth (so much for the “massive” expansion of government).
State and local government payrolls have fallen, reflecting budget strains (despite federal aid to the states), which has
acted as moderate drag on overall economic growth. Private-sector job growth has been positive, but relatively subpar