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Energy outlook 2035_presentation
- 1. © BP p.l.c.2015 17th February 2015 BP Energy Outlook 2035 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
- 2. © BP p.l.c.2015 0 30 60 90 OECD Non-OECD Asia Other Population Income per person 0 60 120 180 240 1975 1995 2015 2035 Other Non-OECD Asia OECD Trillion, $2011 PPP GDP Economic backdrop Contribution to GDP growth Energy Outlook 2035 Trillion $2011 PPP, 2013-35
- 3. © BP p.l.c.2015 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Global energy demand Billion toe Consumption by region 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 % per annum Non-OECD Asia energy growth 2000-13 Slower GDP growth 2013-35 Faster decline in energy intensity Other Non-OECD Asia OECD
- 4. © BP p.l.c.2015 Global energy demand by sector and fuel Energy Outlook 2035 Billion toe Consumption by sector Consumption by fuel Billion toe 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 1965 2000 2035 Transport Other Industry 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 1965 2000 2035 Thousands Oil Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear Renew.* *Includes biofuels
- 5. © BP p.l.c.2015 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Oil Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables* Shares of primary energy Energy Outlook 2035 *Includes biofuels
- 6. © BP p.l.c.2015 Power sector 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1965 2000 2035 Inputs to power as a share of total primary energy Primary inputs to power 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 Coal Gas Oil Hydro Nuclear Renew.
- 7. © BP p.l.c.2015 New sources of energy supply Energy Outlook 2035 0 1 2 3 1990 2005 2020 2035 Renewables in power Shale gas Tight oil, oil sands, biofuels Production Billion toe
- 8. © BP p.l.c.2015 0 20 40 60 Middle East Europe & Eurasia Africa S & C America North America Asia Pacific Tight oil Shale gas New sources of energy supply Energy Outlook 2035 0 1 2 3 1990 2005 2020 2035 Renewables in power Shale gas Tight oil, oil sands, biofuels Billion toe Billion toe Technically recoverable resources Source: © OECD/IEA 2014 Production
- 9. © BP p.l.c.2015 0 20 40 60 Middle East Europe & Eurasia Africa S & C America North America Asia Pacific Tight oil Shale gas New sources of energy supply Energy Outlook 2035 0 1 2 3 1990 2005 2020 2035 Renewables in power Shale gas Tight oil, oil sands, biofuels Billion toe Billion toe Technically recoverable resources Source: © OECD/IEA 2014 Production
- 10. © BP p.l.c.2015 Renewables in power generation Energy Outlook 2035 Renewables share of power 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1990 2005 2020 2035 EU US China 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 China EU US OECD Asia India Renewables growth 2013 to 2035 ThousandTWh
- 11. © BP p.l.c.2015 Oil and other liquid fuels Energy Outlook 2035
- 12. © BP p.l.c.2015 Global liquids demand Mb/d Energy Outlook 2035 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 2013 OECD decline Non-OECD growth 2013 Non-OPEC growth OPEC growth India Mid East China NGLs* Crude Other Other Asia 2035 level North America Other Demand Supply 2035 level
- 13. © BP p.l.c.2015 Global liquids demand and supply Mb/d Energy Outlook 2035 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 2013 OECD decline Non-OECD growth 2013 Non-OPEC growth OPEC growth India Mid East China NGLs Crude Other Other Asia 2035 level North America Other Demand Supply
- 14. © BP p.l.c.2015 Tight oil and OPEC balance 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2005-20 2020-35 Russia S & C America China Canada & Mexico US US Other Tight oil supply growth Mb/d -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2005-20 2020-35 Share of global liquids growth Energy Outlook 2035 Other NGLs Tight oil OPEC crude
- 15. © BP p.l.c.2015 Tight oil and OPEC balance 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2005-20 2020-35 Russia S & C America China Canada & Mexico US US Other Tight oil supply growth Mb/d -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2005-20 2020-35 Share of global liquids growth Energy Outlook 2035 Other NGLs Tight oil OPEC crude
- 16. © BP p.l.c.2015 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 China US India Oil trade Energy Outlook 2035 Mb/d Net exports -50 -25 0 25 50 75 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Middle East FSU Europe Asia Pacific Africa S&C America N America Regional imbalances Mb/d
- 17. © BP p.l.c.2015 Natural gas Energy Outlook 2035
- 18. © BP p.l.c.2015 0 100 200 300 400 500 1990 2005 2020 2035 Non-OECD other Non-OECD shale OECD shale OECD other Energy Outlook 2035 Production by type and region Bcf/d 0 100 200 300 400 500 1990 2005 2020 2035 Transport Other Power Industry Consumption by sector Bcf/d Global supply and demand for natural gas
- 19. © BP p.l.c.2015 Energy Outlook 2035 Bcf/d LNG supply 0 20 40 60 80 1990 2005 2020 2035 Other Africa Australia US Russia Qatar 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1990 2005 2020 2035 Total trade Pipeline LNG Shares of global gas consumption Growth of LNG
- 20. © BP p.l.c.2015 Sources of gas supply to Europe Bcf/d Energy Outlook 2035 0 20 40 60 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Net pipeline import Net LNG import Domestic production
- 21. © BP p.l.c.2015 Low GDP growth - what if growth in China and India slows more rapidly than assumed? Climate policies - what if policymakers take more actions to reduce emissions? Geopolitics - what are the implications of heightened geopolitical risks? China’s electrification - what if China’s electricity use follows a different path? Key uncertainties Energy Outlook 2035
- 22. © BP p.l.c.2015 Low GDP growth what if growth in China and India slows more rapidly than assumed? Energy Outlook 2035
- 23. © BP p.l.c.2015 -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% World GDP Energy Low GDP growth alternative Energy Outlook 2035 OECD GDP and energy demand Other -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% Oil Gas Energy demand by fuel Nuclear & hydro Renew.CoalNon-OECD Asia Differences from base case in 2035
- 24. © BP p.l.c.2015 Climate policies what if policymakers take more actions to reduce emissions? Energy Outlook 2035
- 25. © BP p.l.c.2015 GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions 100 200 300 400 500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 GDP Energy CO₂ Index: 1990 = 100 Energy Outlook 2035
- 26. © BP p.l.c.2015 GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions 100 200 300 400 500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 GDP Energy CO₂ Index: 1990 = 100 Energy Outlook 2035
- 27. © BP p.l.c.2015 GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions 100 200 300 400 500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 GDP Energy CO₂ Index: 1990 = 100 Energy Outlook 2035
- 28. © BP p.l.c.2015 Carbon emissions Options that achieve equal CO2 emissions reductions* Billion tonnes CO2 Global emissions 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 1965 2000 2035 IEA 450 Scenario Abatement option Change required Replace coal with gas in power (% of total power) 1% Add CCS to coal power plants (% of total power) 0.7% Increase renewables power generation 11% Increase nuclear power generation 6% Improve vehicle efficiency 2% Improve ‘other sector’ energy efficiency 1% Improve efficiency of power production 1% * Normalised for a 1% swing in the coal/gas mix in power generation, equivalent to 110 Mt CO2. Estimates are based on energy shares in 2013. Energy Outlook 2035
- 29. © BP p.l.c.2015 Carbon emissions: some possible options Options that achieve equal CO2 emissions reductions Billion tonnes CO2 Global emissions 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 1965 2000 2035 IEA 450 Scenario Abatement option Change required Replace coal with gas in power (% of total power) 1% Add CCS to coal power plants (% of total power) 0.7% Increase renewables power generation 11% Increase nuclear power generation 6% Improve vehicle efficiency 2% Improve ‘other sector’ energy efficiency 1% Improve efficiency of power production 1% Energy Outlook 2035
- 30. © BP p.l.c.2015 Conclusion Energy Outlook 2035 Changing energy mix − gas fastest growing fossil fuel, coal the slowest − continued rapid growth in renewables Continuous change is the norm for energy markets Changing energy trade patterns − increasingly flowing from West to East Changing the carbon emissions path? − no silver bullet, need action on many fronts − let the market pick the winners
- 31. © BP p.l.c.2015 17th February 2015 BP Energy Outlook 2035 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats