Solving Problems with Theory of Constraints Current Reality Trees @ Lean Agile Edinburgh
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Skyscanner are developing internal lean/agile training courses; Laz and Suzanne would like to share the latest with the Lean Agile Edinburgh community. In this course you'll learn some techniques from Goldratt's Theory of Constraints (TOC) that you can use to resolve problems. Find out how to use current reality trees (CRTs) to decide what to change and future reality trees (FRTs) to decide what to change to. We'll use real life Skyscanner examples and you'll get some hands on practise.
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Solving Problems with Theory of Constraints Current Reality Trees @ Lean Agile Edinburgh
- 1. Solving Problems using Current and Future Reality Trees Starting at 1845 – grab some Pizza!
- 2. Introductions Laz Allen Suzanne Morrison https://www.linkedin.com/in/suzannem @SuzanneMorrison https://www.linkedin.com/in/lazallen @LazAllen Agile Coaches at Skyscanner
- 4. “Any improvement is a change, but not every change is an improvement” Eli Goldratt
- 5. Goldratt’s Books FOCUS & LEVERAGE For continuous improvement
- 7. Theory of Constraints 1. Optimise the whole system, not individual parts 2. Optimise for throughput of value before work in progress and cost 3. There will be ONE (or few) constraint, cause, tension causing most of the problems
- 9. 3 Questions To solve a problem you need to ask 3 Questions 1. What to change? 2. What to change to? 3. How to change?
- 10. Goldratt’s TOC Thinking Processes Goldratt’s TOC Thinking Processes
- 12. Current Reality Trees (what to change)
- 13. UDEs Undesirable Effects (UDEs) Undesirable Effects (UDEs) “An UDE is essentially the first indication you have that something might be amiss in the system. It is something that really exists and is negative on its own merits.” – William Dettmer, The Logical Thinking Processes, 2007
- 14. UDEs Examples of UDEs “Employee morale is low” “Attrition is increasing” “We’re not getting our products in front of the customer fast enough” “Decreasing profit” “We’re not hiring fast enough”
- 15. UDEs Exercise Exercise – Undesirable Effects (UDEs) Read the description of the “Team from Hell”. What undesirable effects do you see here? 5 minutes – We’ll split into groups to brainstorm then come back to share
- 16. Current Reality Trees Current Reality Trees (CRTs) Undesirable Effects (UDEs) Root Causes Intermediate Effects
- 17. Current Reality Trees CRT – Example
- 18. Current Reality Trees CRT – Example
- 19. Current Reality Trees CRT – Example The speakers have water in them
- 20. Current Reality Trees CRT – Example The speakers have water in them
- 21. Current Reality Trees CRT – Example The speakers have water in them
- 22. CRT Exercise CRT Exercise We’re going to revisit the “Team from Hell” example from earlier. Build the CRT using the information in the handout • Start from the UDEs and work your way down. • Once you’ve built the tree, practice reading a branch from top to bottom and from bottom to top. Team from Hell
- 23. Example Tree
- 25. Facilitation – things to consider Facilitation • Size of the group • Blame • The power of reading the tree aloud
- 26. Correlation v Cause and Effect Correlation vs Cause and Effect
- 27. Correlation v Cause and Effect Source - http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
- 28. Future Reality Trees (what to change to)
- 29. Injections Injections “An injection is a new condition or action that does not exist in the current reality. It is something you must make happen in order for the future reality to unfold the way you want it to”
- 30. Future Reality Trees Future Reality Trees Desirable Effects Injections Intermediate Effects
- 31. FRT Exercise FRT Exercise Get back into your groups and look at the CRT from earlier. (1) What would the desirable effects be in the FRT? (2) Can you think about any possible injections to address the root causes? Team from Hell 5 minutes – We’ll split into groups to brainstorm then come back to share
- 33. Negative Branch Exercise Negative Branch Exercise Think about one of your injections and write down a possible negative branch for that injection (no need to trim it). Team from Hell
- 34. Quick Quiz Quick Quiz Write down the answers to the following questions: Q1. What tool should you use to decide what to change? a) Transition tree b) Current Reality Tree c) Future Reality Tree d) Negative branch reservation Q3. What is an Injection? a) A solution b) A policy c) A possible solution d) Something painful Q4. Which 2 statements are TRUE? a) CRTs should have at least 6 layers b) The arrows on a CRT represent cause and effect c) The ellipse can be used to represent an AND between two or more causes and an effect d) UDEs are negative things that have happened in the past Q2. How should you start building a CRT? a) Start with the biggest problem and work downwards b) List all the undesirable effects (UDEs) c) Map out the flow d) Think of the worst thing that can happen
- 35. Quick Quiz Quick Quiz - Answers Ta da! Q1. What tool should you use to decide what to change? a) Transition tree b) Current Reality Tree c) Future Reality Tree d) Negative branch reservation Q3. What is an Injection? a) A solution b) A policy c) A possible solution d) Something painful Q4. Which 2 statements are TRUE? a) CRTs should have at least 6 layers b) The arrows on a CRT represent cause and effect c) The ellipse can be used to represent an AND between two or more causes and an effect d) UDEs are negative things that have happened in the past Q2. How should you start building a CRT? a) Start with the biggest problem and work downwards b) List all the undesirable effects (UDEs) c) Map out the flow d) Think of the worst thing that can happen
- 36. A Useful Tool
- 38. Thinking Processes References The Eli Goldratt Business Novels The Logical Thinking Process (H. William Dettmer) Rolling Rocks Downhill (Clark Ching) Online Guide to Implementing TOC Useful blog on TOC and Lean TOC TV – online videos teaching TOC topics Nothing you ever do might make the slightest difference Goldratt.com
- 39. Next Month’s Meetup • Hosts: Amazon • Lightning Talks • Tuesday 18th Please only RSVP if you expect to make it!
Editor's Notes
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 5 minutes Go to the real time board (or a postit board) that has been pre-populated with the course objectives. Ask people to use three dots on the objectives most important to them and add any additional objectives that haven’t been covered.
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 5 minutes Go to the real time board (or a postit board) that has been pre-populated with the course objectives. Ask people to use three dots on the objectives most important to them and add any additional objectives that haven’t been covered.
- TIMING GUIDELINE – <1 minute Anyone know who this is? In the words of Eli Goldratt, “Any improvement is change, but not every change is an improvement”. It’s easy to make a change and to make the assumption that that change will improve things. But often the change can make no difference at all, or it could make things worse. In the rest of this course we’ll use Goldratt’s thinking processes
- 5 Guiding principles for everyone to apply: FOCUS Less is good, one is great – set the minimum number of goals possible for your squad or tribe. ... so we don’t start 10 things and never finish any of them. CLARITY Start with the traveller, partner or customer when writing goals. Think about why this is important, to who and what problem you intend to solve. The “how” can come later. …so no more spending excessive amounts of time on long term up front planning. We’re data led; so use metrics to inform you of progress towards the goal, but don’t make them the goal, …so no more setting of arbitrary targets in metrics and no more metrics as goals. FLEXIBILITY It is your responsibility to Pivot when you need to as recommended in Lean Startup – your goals are not set in stone. …so we are no longer going to have rigid timelines for setting goals (e.g. trimesters). For goals that are bigger than your squad/tribe, aim to organise around the goal; do what is right for the traveller, partner and Skyscanner. ...so no more prolonged working across boundaries or watching our neighbours' houses burn down. To make sharing your goals really easy we’ll be communicating a simple solution for making your goals visible in the new and improved Flightdeck and beyond very soon. What direction to expect from the company: To publish and explain a clear list of goals, with information on why they were chosen. To support you in making your own decisions based on this information (Note: Not everyone will be working directly on the company goals, but everyone will be contributing. Many people, for example, the Enablement and Data tribes, will be setting goals around providing much needed tools and support to those working on the company goals or to enable world class execution at scale. Others will be applying the same strategic direction that led to these goals in a more iterative fashion, e.g. many of the growth squads.)
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 2 minutes To solve a problem you need to answer 3 questions: 1) What to change – talk about the difference between root causes and symptoms and how addressing symptoms can have a temporary affect but won’t get rid of the problem completely. Use an example like painkillers and toothache. 2) What to change to – talk about how making changes can make things better, but they could actually make no difference or have a detrimental effect on the overall system 3) How to change – it’s easy to come up with ideas for solutions, but they aren’t solutions until they are implemented. It’s important to carefully plan the execution of change and think about the sequence of events, obstacles that may be in the way and how to bring people with us on the journey.
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 2 minutes Quickly walk through the list of tools that are part of Goldratt’s thinking processes Explain that the focus of the course today will be CRTs, but we’ll also touch on FRTs. Evaporating clouds will be covered in a separate course. We’ll not cover transition or pre-requisite trees. Ask if anyone has used any of the tools before.
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 1 minute Consider using the thinking process if you observe that frustrations are high – people are blaming one another, there are conflicts/tensions. Ask the group if they’ve experienced this at any point in Skyscanner Explain that TOC gives us a common language to use that helps us to avoid blame and personal conflict
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 1 minutes Explain what an UDE is and how it is pronounced. Explain that UDES are not simply petty aggravations – they are prominent and negative. E.g. they are affecting the throughput in the system, or preventing you from reaching your goal. Once you’ve listed your UDEs it is worth doing a check by asking a few questions: (a) Is it real, or just your opinion? (b) Is it actually negative? Do others in the organisation agree?
- TIMING GUIDELINE - < 1min A few real examples from Skyscanner
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 10 MINUTES Do a brainstorm with the whole room and write on a whiteboard or realtime board. (5 minutes) Ask what causes each thing until you find the UDE’s Debrief – ask each group to share some of their UDES (5 minutes) They may possibly should out things that are intermediate effects, so use the opportunity to explain the difference between them and ask “what’s the impact of that”?
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 5 minutes Current Reality Tree (CRT) overview Step through the structure of the CRT. Things to mention: Similar to 5 Why’s but multiple UDEs Work your way down by asking “Why?” / “What is causing this?” Keep going till you get to the root cause Think about sphere of influence / control – you could keep going until the creation of the universe, but that’s not going to help You’re probably at the root cause when you’ve reached the boundary of your sphere of influence Mention the “AND” Symbology
- TIMING GUIDELINE = 3 minutes Walk through example –explain that it’s a bit silly, but it demonstrates what a CRT looks like. Ask people to guess as you walk through.
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 25 MINUTES 15 MINUTES for exercise – 1 group online / Skype and another in the room, each with a facilitator 5 MINUTES to debrief / check answers
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 2 MINUTE Explain that these are a couple of real examples from Skyscanner Using postits – finding the root causes of the UDEs related to the OKR process Using a drawing tool – finding the root causes of why certain objectives hadn’t been achieved Mention that the tree can be created with postits and a whiteboard, or using a tool such as RealTimeBoards Give some tips for facilitating a tree building session e.g. ensure that you have all the people who actually know about the problem (don’t try to guess the causes) Pros and cons of small v large groups Be sensitive about the language used – people will sometimes feel that they are being blamed, or feel responsible
- TIMING GUIDELINE - < 1 MINUTE
- TIMING GUIDELINE - < 1 MINUTE
- TIMING = 1 min
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 5 minutes Future Reality Tree (FRT) overview Step through the structure of the FRT. Things to mention: Take the UDEs and turn them into DEs by making them positive Line up the root causes and create possible solutions (injections) Wire from the bottom up
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 5 MINUTES
- TIMING = 2 min Brief explanation of negative branch reservation e.g. how to find negative branches and how to trim them.
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES – explain background as per handout, then ask people to get into groups and try to identify the root causes 15 MINUTES for exercise – 1 group online / Skype and another in the room, each with a facilitator 5 MINUTES to debrief / check answers
- TIMING – 5 MINUTES
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 2-3 minutes
- TIMING GUIDELINE = 5 MINUTES
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- TIMING GUIDELINE = 2-3 MINUTES