Skyscanner reality trees current reality trees future reality trees By Suzanne Morrison
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You can’t predict the future, but you can shape it How Skyscanner is using current and future reality trees from Theory of Constraints to grow By Suzanne Morrison Fpr more, visit https://medium.com/@skyscanner and https://www.skyscanner.net/mobile.html
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Skyscanner reality trees current reality trees future reality trees By Suzanne Morrison
- 1. Solving Problems using Current and Future Reality Trees
- 2. Introductions Laz Allen Suzanne Morrison https://www.linkedin.com/in/suzannem @SuzanneMorrison https://www.linkedin.com/in/lazallen @LazAllen Agile Coaches at Skyscanner
- 3. Learning Objectives • Introduction TOC Thinking Processes • How to find root causes using Current Reality Trees • How to validate solutions using Future Reality Trees • Examples, tips and lessons learned
- 4. “Any improvement is a change, but not every change is an improvement” Eli Goldratt
- 5. 3 Questions To solve a problem you need to ask 3 Questions 1. What to change? 2. What to change to? 3. How to change?
- 7. Current Reality Trees (what tochange)
- 8. Undesirable Effects (UDEs) An UDE is something that really exists, is negative on its own merits and has direct and continuing effect on the goal.
- 9. Examples of UDEs “Employee morale is low” “Attrition is increasing” “We’re not getting our products in front of the customer fast enough” “Decreasing profit” “We’re not hiring fast enough”
- 10. Exercise – Undesirable Effects (UDEs) • In groups, read the description of the “Team from Hell”. • Using the postit notes and sharpies, write down any undesirable effects that you see. • This is a brainstorm, so don’t analyse anything (yet)!
- 11. Current Reality Trees Undesirable Effects (UDEs) Root Causes Intermediate Effects
- 12. Current Reality Tree Example CRT Example
- 13. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17BP9n6g1F0 Operation Cat Drop Credit: Sustainably Illustrated
- 14. Exercise – Cause or Effect? We’re going to revisit the “Team from Hell” example from earlier. • For each postit note ask the question “What does this cause?” • Put all the effects at the top and leave the causes underneath
- 15. Facilitation Tips • Attendees • Size of the group • Blame • The power of reading the tree aloud • Tools
- 16. Exercise – build the CRT We’re now going to build a current reality tree… 1. Choose a facilitator for your group 2. Start from the UDEs and work your way down 3. Ask “why?” to help you 4. Use the postit notes you already have or add some new ones 5. Once you’ve built the tree, practice reading a branch from top to bottom and from bottom to top.
- 17. Example Solution
- 19. Correlation v Cause and Effect
- 20. Correlation v Cause and Effect Source - http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
- 23. Injections “An injection is a new condition or action that does not exist in the current reality. It is something you must make happen in order for the future reality to unfold the way you want it to”
- 24. Injection too far up the tree
- 25. Future Reality Trees Desirable Effects Injections Intermediate Effects
- 27. Layers of Change 1. We don’t have a problem 2. I disagree with the problem 3. The problem is out of my control 4. Your solution is not going to work 5. If we do this, bad things to happen… 6. We can’t do it because of… Current Reality Trees can help to overcome these layers Future Reality Trees can help to overcome these layers
- 28. Thinking Processes References The Eli Goldratt Business Novels The Logical Thinking Process (H. William Dettmer) Rolling Rocks Downhill (Clark Ching) Online Guide to Implementing TOC Useful blog on TOC and Lean TOC TV – online videos teaching TOC topics Nothing you ever do might make the slightest difference Goldratt.com
- 29. Any Questions?
- 30. Edinburgh • Glasgow • Singapore • Beijing • Miami • Barcelona • Shenzhen • Sofia • Budapest For all resources, go to: bit.ly/skyscannertrees
Editor's Notes
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 2 minutes Intro to who we are / what we do SCRIPT FOR “SIT DOWN IF YOU…” Stand up Sit down if you have never heard of the Theory of Constraints until you decided to come to this talk Sit down if you have heard of the Theory of Constraints but don’t know anything about it Sit down if you have read about Theory of Constraints but never applied it Sit down if you know something about Current or Future Reality trees but have never built a tree before Sit down if you have been using CRTs/FRTs for a year or less For 2 years or less For 3 years or less…
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 1 minute Talk through objectives Mention that this is a practical workshop Invite people to shout out questions or put their hand up – no need to wait until the end
- TIMING GUIDELINE – <1 minute Anyone know who this is? In the words of Eli Goldratt, “Any improvement is change, but not every change is an improvement”. It’s easy to make a change and to make the assumption that that change will improve things. But often the change can make no difference at all, or it could make things worse. In the rest of this course we’ll use Goldratt’s thinking processes
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 2 minutes To solve a problem you need to answer 3 questions: Consider independently 1) What to change – talk about the difference between root causes and symptoms and how addressing symptoms can have a temporary affect but won’t get rid of the problem completely. Use an example like painkillers and toothache. Importance of finding the root cause – medical example jaundice/toothache 2) What to change to – talk about how making changes can make things better, but they could actually make no difference or have a detrimental effect on the overall system How to change – it’s easy to come up with ideas for solutions, but they aren’t solutions until they are implemented. It’s important to carefully plan the execution of change and think about the sequence of events, obstacles that may be in the way and how to bring people with us on the journey.
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 1 minute Consider using the thinking process if you observe that frustrations are high – people are blaming one another, there are conflicts/tensions. Ask the group if they’ve experienced this at any point in Skyscanner Explain that TOC gives us a common language to use that helps us to avoid blame and personal conflict
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 1 minutes Explain what an UDE is and how it is pronounced. Explain that UDES are not simply petty aggravations – they are prominent and negative. E.g. they are affecting the throughput in the system, or preventing you from reaching your goal. Once you’ve listed your UDEs it is worth doing a check by asking a few questions: (a) Is it real, or just your opinion? (b) Is it actually negative? Do others in the organisation agree?
- TIMING GUIDELINE - < 1min A few examples – ask the audience if they can think of any, then read them out
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 10 MINUTES Ask people to brainstorm and write down what they think the undesirable effects are, without judging. 5 minutes – brainstorm 2 minutes – organise into themes / dedup 2 minutes - debrief Debrief – ask each group to share some of their UDES (5 minutes) They may possibly should out things that are intermediate effects, so use the opportunity to explain the difference between them and ask “what’s the impact of that”?
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 4 minutes Current Reality Tree (CRT) overview Step through the structure of the CRT. Things to mention: Similar to 5 Why’s but multiple UDEs Work your way down by asking “Why?” / “What is causing this?” Keep going till you get to the root cause Think about sphere of influence / control – you could keep going until the creation of the universe, but that’s not going to help You’re probably at the root cause when you’ve reached the boundary of your sphere of influence Mention the “AND” Symbology
- TIMING GUIDELINE = 3 minutes Walk through example https://realtimeboard.com/app/board/o9J_k0J5f1w=/
- TIMING GUIDELINE = 4 minutes
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 10 MINUTES If you can answer the question – what does this cause Explain the difference between cause or effect Give everyone around 10 minutes to sort out the causes and effects Debrief – ask each group to share their effects
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 15 MINUTES Explain how to build the tree. Ensure there is a facilitator for each group Wander round and help people built the tree Debrief – ask people to shout out the root causes
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 3 MINUTES Explain that these are a couple of real examples from Skyscanner Using postits – finding the root causes of the UDEs related to the OKR process Using a drawing tool – finding the root causes of why certain objectives hadn’t been achieved Mention that the tree can be created with postits and a whiteboard, or using a tool such as RealTimeBoards Give some tips for facilitating a tree building session e.g. ensure that you have all the people who actually know about the problem (don’t try to guess the causes) Pros and cons of small v large groups Be sensitive about the language used – people will sometimes feel that they are being blamed, or feel responsible https://skyspace.sharepoint.com/sites/pmo/PMO/Skyscanner%20University%20Training/TOCCurrentFutureRealityTrees/LeanAgileScotland2017/OKRNarrative.docx?web=1
- TIMING GUIDELINE - < 3 MINUTE
- TIMING GUIDELINE = 5 MINUTES It’s clear that organisations are complex systems – and the Lean Agile Scotland audience is no stranger to Cynefin, so we thought it would be interesting to think about how these two models work together. Here is our take, We need to acknowledge the inherent complexity to that end we need to use CRTs in a certain way. We need to involve people who are actually involved in what is going on, that begins to constitute probing but we need to go further; we need to do these fast and then run experiment in the organisation, using the CRT as a visual model of our current understanding.
- TIMING = 1 min
- TIMING GUIDELINE – 5 minutes Future Reality Tree (FRT) overview Step through the structure of the FRT. Things to mention: Take the UDEs and turn them into DEs by making them positive Line up the root causes and create possible solutions (injections) Wire from the bottom up ASK THE ROOM – what could you inject to address the root causes of the CRT you built earlier.
- TIMING = 2 min Brief explanation of negative branch reservation e.g. how to find negative branches and how to trim them. ASK THE ROOM – what negative branches can you think of from your previous injection
- TIMING GUIDELINE = 2 minutes How CRTs and FRTs can help you through these reactions and concerns
- +
- TIMING GUIDELINE = 5 MINUTES