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SOLVAY'S PERSPECTIVE
ON THE INDUSTRY DYNAMICS, CHALLENGES AND
OPPORTUNITIES
IHS World Soda Ash Conference,
September 21st 2017
Christophe CLEMENTE
President of Soda Ash
& Derivatives Business
Solvay
2.5
Capacity
Demand
Main Soda Ash
exports in MT
W. EUROPE
NORTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST
NAFTA
SOUTH AMERICA
AFRICA
SOUTH EAST ASIA
INDIAN SUBCONTINENT
CAPTION
CIS & BALTICS
0.9
0.9
0.2
0.2
4.23.6
0.2
0.3
1.9
0.3
0.3
2.50.3
2.7
0.2
0.7
1.3
6.6
13.4
5.6
6.2
25.6
30.1
3.44.6
2.9 2.4
2
0.3 0.1
0.1
xx
Source: IHS Markit IHS Connect - Chemical Supply & Demand 13 09 2017; 2017 World Soda Ash Analysis Tableau Q2 Update
Note: Middle East incl. Turkey; CIS & Baltic states incl. Russia
Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017
21 Sept 2017
0.3
1.4
3.8
C. EUROPE
0.7
0.5
0.1
0.3
SODA ASH IS A GLOBAL AND INTERCONNECTED MARKET
~13 MT (24% OF TOTAL DEMAND) TRADED WORLDWIDE
2016 Capacity and Demand balance
3
37.6
11.8
7.2
18.6
31.7
10.8
6.7
14.2
2014
31.2
10.6
6.6
13.9
11.4
6.6
13.1
2010
30.2
10.9
6.6
12.6
30.5
10.7
6.5
13.3
2012
31.0
11.1
6.5
13.5
2011
31.2
2022
0.8% 2.0%
1.3% 2.6%
2013 2017
33.0
11.2
6.8
15.1
2016
32.2
11.0
6.6
14.7
2015
EUROPE
NAFTA
ROW
9.2
2015
17.3
5.2
9.2
2014
17.0
5.1
9.0
2013
16.6
5.0
9.0
2012
16.4
5.1
9.4
2011
16.6
5.1
9.4
2010
15.9
5.0
9.2
2022
20.6
6.6
10.4
2017
18.1
5.5
9.5
2016
17.7
5.3
GLASS
DETERGENCE
OTHERS
IHS
CAGR
โ€ข World Soda Ash demand (excl. China)
has grown at 1.3% CAGR in the past
7 years
โ€ข The last 3 years have shown an
acceleration at 2% growth which
seems a reasonable perspective for
the years to come
Soda Ash Demand
Caption
23.0
2012
22.3
2011
21.5
2010
18.5
24.0
2017
25.5
1.1%0.7%
2022
3.8%
2016
6.3%
2013
23.5 24.0
2015
23.8
2014
World (excl. China) SA demand by Region (in Mt/yr)
World (excl. China) SA demand by End Use (in Mt/yr)
China SA demand(in Mt/yr) IHS
CAGR
Source: IHS Markit IHS Connect - Chemical Supply & Demand 13 09 2017
Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017
21 Sept 2017
A RESILIENT MARKET
LIMITED CONTINUED GROWTH IN SODA ASH DEMAND
WITH MANY UNCERTAINTIES
RELATIVE PRODUCERS COMPETITIVENESS CAN SHIFT
4
Chinese
Exports
Energy
Currency
Exchange
Freight
Geopolitics
Baltic Handy Size Index
EUR/USD Currency Exchange Chinese Exports (MT)
API2 Index
Political Stability Trade Regulations Environmental Regulations
Source: IHS Markit GTA; Quandl; European Central Bank
Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017
21 Sept 2017
CHANGING SUPPLY DEMAND DYNAMICS
PRICE IMPACT?
5
Global overcapacity (excl. domestic China)
Source: IHS Markit IHS Connect - Chemical Supply & Demand 18 07 2017; IHS Price & Economic Series 24 07 2017
Note: (*) Mothballing
Increase Capacity
Demand Decline
Capacity Decrease
Demand Growth
(EU & RoW)
Demand Growth
Potential Restructuring
Capacity
Increase
IHS โ€“ US Dom-Export Ave., FOB Wyoming, $/mt, Constant
IHS โ€“ Europe Contract Del., โ‚ฌ/mt, Constant
2009
TATA Delfzijl
(420 kt)
2014
TATA Winnington (560 kt)
SOLVAY Povoa (240 kt)
PENRICE Osbrone (340 kt)
TATA Magadi(*) (360 kt)
2016
CENTRAL GLASS Ube (200 kt)
SOLVAY Alex. (*) (105 kt)
IHS forecast
Capacity
Expansion
OVERCAPACITY
Plant Closures
/ Mothballing Capacity Increase
& Demand drop
(NOTTOSCALE)
Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017
21 Sept 2017
CHANGING SUPPLY DEMAND DYNAMICS
FAIR PRICE FOR EXPANSION / INVESTMENTS
6
IHS forecast
Average estimated price justifying an investment in Greenfield Capacity*
Average estimated price justifying an investment in Capacity Expansion*
Global overcapacity (excl. domestic China)
(NOTTOSCALE)
Source: IHS Markit IHS Connect - Chemical Supply & Demand 18 07 2017; IHS Price & Economic Series 24 07 2017
Note: (*) Worldwide Industry Solvay analysis , Solvay estimates for new capacity using the Solvay synthetic process
Increase Capacity
Demand Decline
Capacity Decrease
Demand Growth
(EU & RoW)
Demand Growth
Potential Restructuring
Capacity
Increase
OVERCAPACITY
Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017
21 Sept 2017
โ€ข In this very competitive environment Solvay is well positioned
โ€ข Least competitive plants might face restructuring pressure
COST COMPETITIVENESS
KEY SUCCESS FACTOR IN THE SODA ASH INDUSTRY
7
Demand
Ave. FOB
cash cost ($/t)
Freight to FOB
Cash Cost
Supply (Soda ash plants)
Over Capacity
At Risk
Solvay
โ€œWorld-classโ€
assets
Solvay
โ€œLocalโ€
assets Natural
Synthetic
Eur 1st
tier US Eur
Note: Directional schematic representation of the global soda ash industry "cost curve". Each bar
represents the aggregated capacity (x-axis) and average production and freight-to-FOB costs (y-
axis) of plants sharing a similar cost profile. Relative competitiveness may vary locally.
2018 Directional Worldwide Industry Cost Curve
Source: Solvay estimates based on public information
Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017
21 Sept 2017
SOLVAY BREAKTHROUGH ACTIONS
CONTINUOUSLY ENHANCING COMPETITIVENESS
8
Continuous improvements through:
โ€ข Reduction of variable costs
โ€ข Enhancement of manufacturing
excellence
โ€ข Implementation of digital
breakthroughs
2017-2019
Costs savings = โ‚ฌ 100 million
โ€ข 60% variable costs (energy, raw material and
logistics)
โ€ข 20% fixed costs
โ€ข 2014: Closure of Povoa plant
โ€ข 2016: Mothballing of Alexandria site
โ€ข 20% maintenance savings across plants
reducing cost base by 20%
2013-2016
Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017
21 Sept 2017
SOLVAY, A TRULY GLOBAL FOOTPRINT
9
Green-River
Torrelavega
Dombasle
Rheinberg Bernburg
Map Tha Put
Devnya
Rosignano
Houston
Europe
Singapore
Sao Paulo
Plants ( Bicar only)
Offices Depots
Regional Representation
Parachute
World Class
Assets
Local
Assets
โ€ข Offering both natural and synthetic - dense and light - soda ash
โ€ข Providing safety of supply through our global network of plants and sales offices
โ€ข Having a unique global reach thanks to our logistics networks
Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017
21 Sept 2017
SOLVAYโ€™S COMMITMENT TO BECOME A MODEL FOR SUSTAINABLE
CHEMISTRY
10
Soda Ash & Derivatives business is contributing to Sustainability targets
80%
Employee engagement
index
People
engagement
-50%
of occupational
accidents with MTAR
target < 0.50
Safety
-40%
Reduction of carbon
intensity
CO2 Societal actions
X2
Employees involved in
societal actions
(from 20% in 2014 to
40% in 2025)
50%
Share of sustainable
solutions in the Group
portfolio
SPM
Solvay
By 2025
Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017
21 Sept 2017
For a responsible chemical industry: Solvay is committed to the โ€œResponsible Careยฎโ€ World Charter. This
global chemical industry initiative aims to achieve continuous improvement in the safe handling of
chemical substances from their initial development to their final use.
For a responsible dialog: on December 17, 2013, Solvay signed a Corporate Social and Environmental
Agreement for the whole Group with IndustriALL Global Union. This agreement expresses Solvayโ€™s
determination to ensure that basic labor rights and Groupโ€™s social standards in the areas of health,
safety, and environmental protection are respected on all of its sites.
For human rights: Solvay participates in the UN Global Compact and is committed to upholding its
principles, contributing to the emergence of a sustainable and inclusive global economy which delivers
lasting benefits to people, communities, and markets.
As a member signatory of the UN Global Compact, Solvay has an impact and contributes to all of the UN
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through its daily business and its products and solutions.
Solvay is committed to maintaining a dialog with stakeholders and is a member of several associations:
WBCSD, ICCA BusinessEurope, ERT, Cefic, ACC, ABIQUIM, AICM CPCIF, Gri, COP, TCFD, SBTโ€ฆโ€ฆ
Association
Membership
SOLVAYโ€™S COMMITMENT TO BECOME A MODEL FOR SUSTAINABLE
CHEMISTRY
11 Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017
21 Sept 2017
KEY TAKE-AWAYS
12
Soda ash demand has a perspective of constant moderate growth for the 5 coming years.
Soda ash customers deserve long term quality and reliability of supply.
Supply/Demand can be disturbed on the short term by many different events.
Solvay has a long term commitment to its soda ash business, and has capacity to supply despite uncertainties.
Solvay has successfully restructured its network. Through continuous improvements, Solvay preserves its cost
competitiveness.
Long term fair equilibrium price is needed for soda ash industry to invest in robust networks.
Sustainability is a key lever for the future:
โ€ข Solvay believes and cares about people
โ€ข Solvay believes innovative chemistry holds the sustainable solutions for future generations
Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017
21 Sept 2017
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
SPEAKERโ€™S
RESUME
14
Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017
21 Sept 2017
SPEAKERโ€™S RESUME
15
Christophe Clemente
began his career in Rhone-Poulenc in 1990. He held various executive positions
in Europe and the USA: VP & Finance Director of Novecare from 2000 to 2002,
VP General Manager of North America for Novecare from 2003 to 2006, VP
General Manager of Novecare Europe from 2007 to 2012.
He joined the Integration Management Office in 2012, becoming Head of
Strategy for Essential Chemicals in January 2013 and was appointed President of
the Global Business Unit Soda Ash & Derivatives in January 1, 2014.
President, Soda Ash &
Derivatives
Christophe
Clemente
Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017
21 Sept 2017
www.solvay.com

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Soda Ash - Solvay perspective on the industry dynamics

  • 1. SOLVAY'S PERSPECTIVE ON THE INDUSTRY DYNAMICS, CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IHS World Soda Ash Conference, September 21st 2017 Christophe CLEMENTE President of Soda Ash & Derivatives Business Solvay
  • 2. 2.5 Capacity Demand Main Soda Ash exports in MT W. EUROPE NORTH EAST ASIA MIDDLE EAST NAFTA SOUTH AMERICA AFRICA SOUTH EAST ASIA INDIAN SUBCONTINENT CAPTION CIS & BALTICS 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.2 4.23.6 0.2 0.3 1.9 0.3 0.3 2.50.3 2.7 0.2 0.7 1.3 6.6 13.4 5.6 6.2 25.6 30.1 3.44.6 2.9 2.4 2 0.3 0.1 0.1 xx Source: IHS Markit IHS Connect - Chemical Supply & Demand 13 09 2017; 2017 World Soda Ash Analysis Tableau Q2 Update Note: Middle East incl. Turkey; CIS & Baltic states incl. Russia Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017 21 Sept 2017 0.3 1.4 3.8 C. EUROPE 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 SODA ASH IS A GLOBAL AND INTERCONNECTED MARKET ~13 MT (24% OF TOTAL DEMAND) TRADED WORLDWIDE 2016 Capacity and Demand balance
  • 3. 3 37.6 11.8 7.2 18.6 31.7 10.8 6.7 14.2 2014 31.2 10.6 6.6 13.9 11.4 6.6 13.1 2010 30.2 10.9 6.6 12.6 30.5 10.7 6.5 13.3 2012 31.0 11.1 6.5 13.5 2011 31.2 2022 0.8% 2.0% 1.3% 2.6% 2013 2017 33.0 11.2 6.8 15.1 2016 32.2 11.0 6.6 14.7 2015 EUROPE NAFTA ROW 9.2 2015 17.3 5.2 9.2 2014 17.0 5.1 9.0 2013 16.6 5.0 9.0 2012 16.4 5.1 9.4 2011 16.6 5.1 9.4 2010 15.9 5.0 9.2 2022 20.6 6.6 10.4 2017 18.1 5.5 9.5 2016 17.7 5.3 GLASS DETERGENCE OTHERS IHS CAGR โ€ข World Soda Ash demand (excl. China) has grown at 1.3% CAGR in the past 7 years โ€ข The last 3 years have shown an acceleration at 2% growth which seems a reasonable perspective for the years to come Soda Ash Demand Caption 23.0 2012 22.3 2011 21.5 2010 18.5 24.0 2017 25.5 1.1%0.7% 2022 3.8% 2016 6.3% 2013 23.5 24.0 2015 23.8 2014 World (excl. China) SA demand by Region (in Mt/yr) World (excl. China) SA demand by End Use (in Mt/yr) China SA demand(in Mt/yr) IHS CAGR Source: IHS Markit IHS Connect - Chemical Supply & Demand 13 09 2017 Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017 21 Sept 2017 A RESILIENT MARKET LIMITED CONTINUED GROWTH IN SODA ASH DEMAND
  • 4. WITH MANY UNCERTAINTIES RELATIVE PRODUCERS COMPETITIVENESS CAN SHIFT 4 Chinese Exports Energy Currency Exchange Freight Geopolitics Baltic Handy Size Index EUR/USD Currency Exchange Chinese Exports (MT) API2 Index Political Stability Trade Regulations Environmental Regulations Source: IHS Markit GTA; Quandl; European Central Bank Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017 21 Sept 2017
  • 5. CHANGING SUPPLY DEMAND DYNAMICS PRICE IMPACT? 5 Global overcapacity (excl. domestic China) Source: IHS Markit IHS Connect - Chemical Supply & Demand 18 07 2017; IHS Price & Economic Series 24 07 2017 Note: (*) Mothballing Increase Capacity Demand Decline Capacity Decrease Demand Growth (EU & RoW) Demand Growth Potential Restructuring Capacity Increase IHS โ€“ US Dom-Export Ave., FOB Wyoming, $/mt, Constant IHS โ€“ Europe Contract Del., โ‚ฌ/mt, Constant 2009 TATA Delfzijl (420 kt) 2014 TATA Winnington (560 kt) SOLVAY Povoa (240 kt) PENRICE Osbrone (340 kt) TATA Magadi(*) (360 kt) 2016 CENTRAL GLASS Ube (200 kt) SOLVAY Alex. (*) (105 kt) IHS forecast Capacity Expansion OVERCAPACITY Plant Closures / Mothballing Capacity Increase & Demand drop (NOTTOSCALE) Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017 21 Sept 2017
  • 6. CHANGING SUPPLY DEMAND DYNAMICS FAIR PRICE FOR EXPANSION / INVESTMENTS 6 IHS forecast Average estimated price justifying an investment in Greenfield Capacity* Average estimated price justifying an investment in Capacity Expansion* Global overcapacity (excl. domestic China) (NOTTOSCALE) Source: IHS Markit IHS Connect - Chemical Supply & Demand 18 07 2017; IHS Price & Economic Series 24 07 2017 Note: (*) Worldwide Industry Solvay analysis , Solvay estimates for new capacity using the Solvay synthetic process Increase Capacity Demand Decline Capacity Decrease Demand Growth (EU & RoW) Demand Growth Potential Restructuring Capacity Increase OVERCAPACITY Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017 21 Sept 2017
  • 7. โ€ข In this very competitive environment Solvay is well positioned โ€ข Least competitive plants might face restructuring pressure COST COMPETITIVENESS KEY SUCCESS FACTOR IN THE SODA ASH INDUSTRY 7 Demand Ave. FOB cash cost ($/t) Freight to FOB Cash Cost Supply (Soda ash plants) Over Capacity At Risk Solvay โ€œWorld-classโ€ assets Solvay โ€œLocalโ€ assets Natural Synthetic Eur 1st tier US Eur Note: Directional schematic representation of the global soda ash industry "cost curve". Each bar represents the aggregated capacity (x-axis) and average production and freight-to-FOB costs (y- axis) of plants sharing a similar cost profile. Relative competitiveness may vary locally. 2018 Directional Worldwide Industry Cost Curve Source: Solvay estimates based on public information Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017 21 Sept 2017
  • 8. SOLVAY BREAKTHROUGH ACTIONS CONTINUOUSLY ENHANCING COMPETITIVENESS 8 Continuous improvements through: โ€ข Reduction of variable costs โ€ข Enhancement of manufacturing excellence โ€ข Implementation of digital breakthroughs 2017-2019 Costs savings = โ‚ฌ 100 million โ€ข 60% variable costs (energy, raw material and logistics) โ€ข 20% fixed costs โ€ข 2014: Closure of Povoa plant โ€ข 2016: Mothballing of Alexandria site โ€ข 20% maintenance savings across plants reducing cost base by 20% 2013-2016 Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017 21 Sept 2017
  • 9. SOLVAY, A TRULY GLOBAL FOOTPRINT 9 Green-River Torrelavega Dombasle Rheinberg Bernburg Map Tha Put Devnya Rosignano Houston Europe Singapore Sao Paulo Plants ( Bicar only) Offices Depots Regional Representation Parachute World Class Assets Local Assets โ€ข Offering both natural and synthetic - dense and light - soda ash โ€ข Providing safety of supply through our global network of plants and sales offices โ€ข Having a unique global reach thanks to our logistics networks Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017 21 Sept 2017
  • 10. SOLVAYโ€™S COMMITMENT TO BECOME A MODEL FOR SUSTAINABLE CHEMISTRY 10 Soda Ash & Derivatives business is contributing to Sustainability targets 80% Employee engagement index People engagement -50% of occupational accidents with MTAR target < 0.50 Safety -40% Reduction of carbon intensity CO2 Societal actions X2 Employees involved in societal actions (from 20% in 2014 to 40% in 2025) 50% Share of sustainable solutions in the Group portfolio SPM Solvay By 2025 Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017 21 Sept 2017
  • 11. For a responsible chemical industry: Solvay is committed to the โ€œResponsible Careยฎโ€ World Charter. This global chemical industry initiative aims to achieve continuous improvement in the safe handling of chemical substances from their initial development to their final use. For a responsible dialog: on December 17, 2013, Solvay signed a Corporate Social and Environmental Agreement for the whole Group with IndustriALL Global Union. This agreement expresses Solvayโ€™s determination to ensure that basic labor rights and Groupโ€™s social standards in the areas of health, safety, and environmental protection are respected on all of its sites. For human rights: Solvay participates in the UN Global Compact and is committed to upholding its principles, contributing to the emergence of a sustainable and inclusive global economy which delivers lasting benefits to people, communities, and markets. As a member signatory of the UN Global Compact, Solvay has an impact and contributes to all of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through its daily business and its products and solutions. Solvay is committed to maintaining a dialog with stakeholders and is a member of several associations: WBCSD, ICCA BusinessEurope, ERT, Cefic, ACC, ABIQUIM, AICM CPCIF, Gri, COP, TCFD, SBTโ€ฆโ€ฆ Association Membership SOLVAYโ€™S COMMITMENT TO BECOME A MODEL FOR SUSTAINABLE CHEMISTRY 11 Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017 21 Sept 2017
  • 12. KEY TAKE-AWAYS 12 Soda ash demand has a perspective of constant moderate growth for the 5 coming years. Soda ash customers deserve long term quality and reliability of supply. Supply/Demand can be disturbed on the short term by many different events. Solvay has a long term commitment to its soda ash business, and has capacity to supply despite uncertainties. Solvay has successfully restructured its network. Through continuous improvements, Solvay preserves its cost competitiveness. Long term fair equilibrium price is needed for soda ash industry to invest in robust networks. Sustainability is a key lever for the future: โ€ข Solvay believes and cares about people โ€ข Solvay believes innovative chemistry holds the sustainable solutions for future generations Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017 21 Sept 2017
  • 14. SPEAKERโ€™S RESUME 14 Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017 21 Sept 2017
  • 15. SPEAKERโ€™S RESUME 15 Christophe Clemente began his career in Rhone-Poulenc in 1990. He held various executive positions in Europe and the USA: VP & Finance Director of Novecare from 2000 to 2002, VP General Manager of North America for Novecare from 2003 to 2006, VP General Manager of Novecare Europe from 2007 to 2012. He joined the Integration Management Office in 2012, becoming Head of Strategy for Essential Chemicals in January 2013 and was appointed President of the Global Business Unit Soda Ash & Derivatives in January 1, 2014. President, Soda Ash & Derivatives Christophe Clemente Solvay Soda Ash & Derivatives โ€“ IHS Markit WSA Conference 2017 21 Sept 2017