The document discusses providing off-grid electricity access in Myanmar through sustainable solutions like solar home systems and micro-hydro plants. It outlines plans to create an Asian Rural Development Fund that would indirectly finance such projects by working with local banks, microfinance institutions, and power suppliers. The business model involves the Fund providing debt financing to local partners to invest in energy systems, which would then be distributed and serviced in rural villages with customers paying monthly fees. Metrics and data are presented on potential project costs, repayment timelines, and pricing under the model. The goal is to increase electricity access, foster economic growth, and improve living standards across Myanmar.

1. Off-Grid Electricity in Myanmar:
Asian Rural Development Fund (ARDF)
Consulting
Leon Spruth, Philip Ter Meer, Sem de Moel

2. Consulting
Agenda
1. Overview &
Problem
Identification
2. Our
Plan
4. Business
Model
3. Financing
Streams
 Myanmar Overview
 Electrification Problem
 Electrification Problem -
Financing
 Financing Streams
 Donors, Investors &
Intermediaries
 Investees
 Mission & Objectives
 Our Approach: Developing
off-grid
 Previous cases &
Learnings
5. Conclusion
 Business Model
 Data
 Outcome
 Impact Measurement -
Metrics
 Conclusion

3. Overview &
Problem
Identification
• Mynamar Overview
• Electrification Problem
• Electrification – Financing
1

4. FiM Regional Market Presences
Office
Europe:
• Armenia
• Bosnia and Herzegovina
• Georgia
• Kenya
• Kosovo
• Luxembourg
• Macedonia
• Moldova
• Montenegro
• Serbia
• Turkey
• Ukraine
South-America:
• Colombia
Africa:
• Egypt
How about
Myanmar?

5. Consulting
Myanmar Overview
• 50 years of isolation and military rule
• Midst of progressive political reforms
1) Micro Hydro Workshop Proceedings: Dr. Xiaoping Wang, World Bank
2) United Nations: Human Development Reports
3) Asian Development Bank: Development Economics and Indicators
• Promising results, improvement expected in:
a) economic b) social indicators c) regulatory
and institutional frameworks5)
0%
5%
10%
15%
Myanmar East Asia & Pacific (developing only)
• High Impact, rapid growth potential1)
• Wealth of natural resources, young
workforce, and good strategic position
as trading hub5)
• GDP per capita (2011): $8572)
• HDI (2015): 148/1872)
• Poverty margin: 26%3)
4) World Bank: Global Economic Prospects
5) PWC: Myanmar Business Guide
6) Khin Seint Wint, Ministry of Electric Power, November 24th, 2014
• Annual GDP (Δ) expected around 8%4),
• Economy will quadruple by 20307)
• Very low electrification rate: 32%6)
• Much lower in rural areas
• National Electrification Program (NEP)
• Improvement of life quality
• Fostering long-term economic growth
• Significant investments needed in energy and
infrastructure sector
7) McKinsey Report, 2013
New Government (Civilian rule)1)
Economic and Impact Potential
Electrification Problem

6. Consulting
Electrification Problem
59%20%
11%
4%
4%
2% Remaining Villages
Generators
National Grid
Solar
Micro-Hydropower
Biomass/Biogas
1) Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Rural Development, Department of Rural Development, January 2015
2) www.geni.com Global Energy
3) Center for Strategic and International Studies: Myanmar's Path to Electrification, Rachel Ross
Rural Electrification Program 1) National Grid System2)
• Only minority of 51m people have access to grid
• Electricity access concentrated in cities 4) :
Yangon (78%), Kayah (46%), and Manadalay (40%) in
contrast to Kayin (6%), Tanitharyi (9%), and
Ayeryawady (11%)
• Only 40% of rural villages (26.000) have access to
electricity and 13,000 use generators1)
• Of electrified villages, less than half of
households receive electricity sufficient to
charge electronics for several hours a day2)
4) Ministry of Electric Power: Electrification rates as of December 2013

7. Consulting
Electrification Problem - Financing
Further funding is needed to fully electrify
Myanmar:
▪ NEP only financed $550m of total $700m
required for first 5 years1)
▪ Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Rural
Development seeking private investment for
off-grid projects2)
• €5.4bn total investment potential on off-grid
electricity, measured by SLP
• Currently only €58m planned expenditure
by NEP until 20303)
1) Department of Rural Development & MOLFRD, Rural Electricity Access, 2015
2) World Bank, Myanmar: Achieving Universal Access to Electricity, 2015
3) Castalia Advisors, Myanmar National Electrification Program (NEP) Roadmap and Investment Prospectus, 2014
NEP
Financed
79%
Additional
Investment
Needed
National Electrification Plan Financing1)
Off-Grid Investment Potential
Electrification Plan Financing (FY ‘16-’19)
Investment Potential in off-grid (FY ’18 – ’30)
NEP
Committed
Funds
Private
Investment
Opportunity
99%

8. Our Plan
• Mission & Objectives
• Our Approach: Developing off-grid
• Previous cases & Learnings
2

9. Consulting
The Asian Rural Development Fund (ARDF) aims to provide access to electricity to (poor) people
in rural areas in Myanmar and other developing countries in South East Asia, through indirect
long-term financing of sustainable off-grid electricity solutions such as solar home systems
and micro hydro-plants to villages & SMEs. In corporation with local banks and MFIs, providers of
renewable off-grid energy solutions will identify, realize and supervise suitable investment projects
in rural areas that will be financed by the Development Fund. Increasing the access to electricity by
promoting renewable energy solutions leading to higher living standards, creating jobs and new
business opportunities and fostering economic growth while decreasing emissions.”
Mission & Objectives

10. Consulting
Developing Off-Grid Projects
Determine
willingness/
ability
to pay
Feasibility testing
(design,
resources)
Arrange funding
Implementation
and training
Potential and
demand
assessment
Maintenance
and after-sales
1
2
3
4
5
6
Suggested Approach
1 – 3: Technical and Commercial DD, 4: Financing, 5 – 6: Technical Support
Foster collaboration for DD (1 – 3)
• Cross-functional cooperation
between local loan officers
and local power suppliers
Become a market maker (4)
• Fund (FiM) brings local
financial intermediaries,
power suppliers, and local
villages together
Provide technical support (5 – 6)
• Power supplier lays
foundation for future growth
and better life conditions
Steps

11. Consulting
Previous Cases / Lessons Learned
1) Overseas Development Institute, Turning on the Lights, 2014
2) Meyers et al., Prospects for the Power Sector in Nine Developing Countries, April 1993
Myanmar
GDP Growth: 8.5%
Electricity Growth: 12.8%
Vietnam1)
1990 – 2010
GDP Growth: 5.6%
Electricity Demand Growth:
12.5%
Turning the Lights On (97%
coverage from 14%)
• Sustained Policy
Commitment
• Local-Level
Implementation
• Donor Support
Indonesia2)
1980-1990
GDP Growth: 3.6%
Electricity Demand Growth:
13.4%
Only achieved 54% coverage
• Environmental
Regulations
• Ignored rural
communities (Diesel
generators)

12. Financing
Streams
• Financing Streams
• Donors, Investors & Intermediaries
• Investees
3

13. Consulting
Financing Streams
Pub Donors/Investors
Creator of Fund
MFIs
PACT Global
Microfinance Fund
Dawn
Microfinance
Banks
Rural Development
Bank
Myanmar Agriculture
Development Bank
Power Suppliers Local Rural Villages
Investees
Donors and Investors
Private Investors
Churches
Municipalities
Private investors
Financial Intermediaries

14. Consulting
Donors, Investors & Intermediaries
• Already involved in rural
development in Myanmar
• Provided €7m grant to NEP1)
• Involved in rural electrification
programs Asia wide
• Provided $172m in off-grid
electrification for NEP2)
• Focused on off-grid renewable
energy development
• Provided grants for technical
assistance on solar/hydro sys.3)
• Grants for consulting on mini-
hydro and solar power
• Committed €8m to NEP3)
• RDB already provides loans to
rural villages for electricity
• Fund technical assistance3)
• Countrywide network with
regional offices
• Provide agriculture credit to
rural villages4)
• Biggest MFI fund in Myanmar
funding solar system purchases
• Work with 9 Myanmar NGOs to
develop ops. in remote areas5)
• Leading for-profit MFI
developed by Triodos Bank6)
• Goal to become large financial
services provider to low income
1) KfW, Myanmar: A country undergoing transition, 2016
2) World Bank, Myanmar: Achieving Universal Access to Electricity, 2015
3) Department of Rural Development & MOLFRD, Rural Electricity Access, 2015
4) Myanmar Agriculture Development Bank, Law
5) Center for Strategic and International Studies: Myanmar's Path to Electrification, Rachel Ross
6) Triodos Bank, Investing in Myanmar, 2015

15. Consulting
Investees
Local villagers coming together to work on projects. Receive technical
assistance from donors. Install and service systems in their region1)
Provide and service solar home systems in Myanmar. Agents located
throughout the country. Actively aim to participate in nation development.2)
Vietnamese small Hydropower Systems company providing affordable and
reliable energy to developing countries and remote locations. Shown high
interest in working with Finance in Motion on off-grid electricity development3)
Provider of hybrid power solutions to mobile base stations. Orders in Myanmar
worth 17m Euro. 500 energy systems for expansion of mobile network4)
Private Companies
VEC
Village Electrification Committee
1) Department of Rural Development & MOLFRD, Rural Electricity Access, 2015
2) Asia Solar Co Ltd, Company Profile, 2013
3) Powerpal, Affordable Technology for all Countries
4) Heliocentris Energy Solutions AG, 2016
1. Local Rural Villages 2. SMEs

16. Business Model
• Business Model
• Data
• Outcome
• Impact Measurement - Metrics
4

17. Consulting
Business Model
• FiM creates ARDF
• Receives interest repayment
Finance in Motion
FiM Asian Rural
Development Fund
Local MFIs / Banks
Set-Up Distribution /
Service Network
Rural Households
• Provides debt to MFIs/banks
Receives interest repayment margin
• Invests in solar/hydro systems
• Collects 23% cap monthly revenue
• Distribute and service systems
• Paid for initial product instalment and
monthly payments for service
• Pay set monthly fee for use of electricity
Grants: Technical Assistance
and Service Costs

18. Consulting
Business Case - Data
Solar Home
System
Micro Hydro
Powerplant
Price for 0,5kw inc. installment mark up
(20%) in EUR 331 477
Payback period for 0,5kw off grid power plant
in years 7,0 7,0
Monthly repayment inc. installment mark up
(20%) in EUR 3,9 5,7
Monthly repayment inc. installment &
expected cumulated 7-year inflation (35%) in
EUR 5,3 7,7
Monthly repayment inc. installment, inflation
& profit margin and risk mark up (100%) in
EUR 10,6 15,3
Total repayment (in EUR) 893 1.063
No. Of technicians 25 25
Installation rate per village per technician per
year 10 6
No. Of households supplied per year 29.523 17.714
Cummulated investment potential from 2018-
2030 (in EUR) 222.139.737 192.333.535
Total no. of households that gained access to
electricity through project until 2030 383.795 230.277
Market Potential
No. villages in rural areas without/expensive
and dirty access to electricity 51.648
Average households per village 118
No. Households in rural areas without access to
(or clean/affordable) electricity 6.1m
Total market potential for off-grid solutions in
2018 (in EUR) 3.2bn
Total market potential for off-grid solutions in
2030 (in EUR) 5.4bn
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
EUR
Annual Investment Volume
Data

19. Consulting
Business Case - Outcome
=((0,5*500+4,18+14+35)/1,1)*1,2
Battery 12v 200Ah for Solar
FOB Price: $4.182)
Solar Panel 500W
FOB Price: $2502)
Solar off-grid inverter
FOB Price: $142)
LED TV/DVD, 11.6”
FOB Price: $353)
Cost of solar system (0.5kW) per household = 331€ ≙ 3.28€ per month (7 year repayment period)
9.3€
0
5
10
15
Cost for candles & torches1)
1) UN development program, Human Development report 2015, 2) www.Alibaba.com, 3) Sanook, Thailand, 4) Appendix – Powerpal Email
Cost for solar system2,3) Costs for hydro system4)
Average monthly payment
15.3€
4,7€
1,0€
2,0€
7,7€
0
5
10
15
100% Profit and risk margin
35% Inflation costs
Installment-mark up (20%)
Monthly payment for system
10.6€
3,3€
0,7€
1,4€
5,3€
0
5
10
15
100% Profit and risk margin
35% Inflation costs
Installment-mark up (20%)
Monthly payment for system

20. Consulting
Impact Measurement - Metrics
Access to Electricity
No. of households/SMEs that gained
access to electricity
Reducing Emissions
Amount of fossil fuel/CO2 saved by new
sustainable energy solutions
Job Creation
No. of created jobs related to planning,
excecuting and maintaing energy
systems
Renewable Energy
No. of newly created off-grid energy
systems
Social Impact Environmental Impact
Targets 2030
• 600,000 households gained access to electricity
• Increased access to electricity in rural areas by 10%

21. Conclusion
5

22. Consulting
Summary
Electricity shortage in Myanmar
Little focus on off-grid solutions in rural areas
Scalability
Potential to expand into Mobile Payment Network, work with local entrepreneurs
Provide off-grid solutions to 600,000 households
or 10% of rural area, until the completion of National Electrification Plan grid network
Finance in Motion creates ARDF fund to finance solar/hydro systems in rural villages
Engage with local MFIs/banks as intermediaries to roll-out the systems

23. Appendix
6

24. Consulting
Rollout plan - Scalability
Rollout Plan for the next seven years
1) Asian Development Bank, Myanmar: Energy Sector Initial Assessment
2) Center for Strategic and International Studies: Myanmar's Path to Electrification, Rachel Ross
3) Myanmar Times: Stay tuned for mobile banking services from Yoma and Telenor
Installed >1000 rice-husk
gasifiers to power rice mills
1. Local entrepreneurs1)
Planned Planned Is- Is- %
Acitvitiy Start Time Begin Time Done 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Identify investment opportunity 1 2 1 1 100%
Analysis & due diligence 2 3 - - 0%
Investment structuring 2 3 - - 0%
Technical and commercial DD for off-grid energy 3 26 - - 0%
Arrange Funding 4 25 - - 0%
Monitoring & reporting 4 25 - - 0%
Additional investment opportunities
Local entrepreneurs 6 23 - - 0%
Larger industrial power suppliers 7 22 - - 0%
Fintech companies (mobile payment) 10 21 - - 0%
Marked time range: 1 Planned Is %done
Heliocentris (GER), Gen-
eration (US), Flexenclosure
(SW) set up in Myanmar
2. Large power suppliers2)
Yoma and Telenor are
setting up mobile banking
services
3. Mobile payment providers3)

25. Consulting
Risk Exposure – PPP Structure
Notes
Senior Shares
Junior Shares
Churches Municipalities Private investors
RiskExposure
Institutional and
private investors
International Financial
Institutions
Donors

26. Consulting
Risk Assessment
Political Risk
• Risk of changing
regulations – little/no
regulation in rural areas
• Changes in government
• Corruption
• Relations with China –
Energy deal between the
nations
Economical Risk
• Inflation
• Repayment risks
• Default risk of power
suppliers
• Default risk of financial
intermediaries

27. Consulting
Local Solar Firms1)
Name of Company
Type of product/ service
offered
Number
of staff
solar sector
experience
SHS built
to date
Sourcing of
components
for DRD SHS
Revenues
(Thousand
US$/year)
Expected
increase
FY2014-5
Moe Ko San Solar SHS and mini-grids 33 2 years 780 Korea, China 160 200%
T & t Co. Ltd
SHS and mini-grids. Solar
street lamps
20 1.75 years 2722 China 80 1000%
Asia Solar
From pico-solar products to
projects > 10 kW
170 5 years 7822 China >1,000 >200%
Earth Renewable Energy
Company
SHS, 1-3 kW systems 25 12 years 3700 China 1,000 40%
Myanmar Mahar Htun SHS
6 involved
in PV. (60
total)
None 0 China 233 N/A
SolaRiseSys
PV for telecom, SHS, mini-
grids, lanterns
50 4 years 10208 China not divulge not divulge
1) Department of Rural Development & MOLFRD, Rural Electricity Access, 2015

28. Consulting
Powerpal Email
Dear Sem, Leon and Philip.
Thank you for your thought-provoking email about a possible venture to provide electricity to remote rural households in Myanmar, a country where I have
worked as a mineral exploration geologist some years ago. By sheer coincidence we are currently involved in discussions in Papua New Guinea (PNG) with an
Australian company in an attempt to find support from Government sources to install some of our micro-hydro systems in remote settlements that will
never be served by the national grid due to their inaccessible locations.
However, I can see that your direction with regard to funding is unlike our own as it would call upon the likes of ourselves as the supplier of the generation
systems to carry some significant level of risk and also to become active in matter of fee collection in order to repay loans to local banks/MFI (I am unfamiliar
with the term MFI – please clarify).
But first to your questions: We are a small company and do not have access to the funds necessary to take on the credit risk involved in supplying the
equipment free to the local communities. In order to find the necessary funding for projects of the type you are considering, on occasion we have enlisted the
assistance of NGOs, Missionary groups, local Government agencies and even agencies of the World Bank. Then our role is simply to supply the necessary
equipment, usually at a discounted rate, to the funding source who then finds knowledgeable local people to oversee the installation and maintenance. So you
can see that our role has little or no risk involved and that is the way we have to operate. For example, we recently supplied a T2H micro-hydro system for a
remote site in northern Laos that was paid for and installed by the French aid group “Electriciens sans Frontieres”.
If the risk was underwritten by local banks, then we could become involved as we have done elsewhere quite successfully.
To give you some idea of our specially discounted prices for less developed nations, I have attached a current price list, but please be aware that these prices
are all set at the gate of the factory in Hanoi, Vietnam, and there would be additional delivery costs by ocean freight to Yangon, plus local import duties and
associated port clearance costs at the Myanmar end of the journey from Hanoi.
I have never heard of Finance in Motion, yet I assume that they have had some experience in less developed countries like Myanmar where the locals would
have had virtually no previous exposure to the business side of paying for the use of some electricity. A lot of time will have to be spent on education with
regard to equipment maintenance, and also to fee collection, and this once more is not the sort of activity that in which we get involved. I doubt if any of you
have ever spent much time in the remote parts of Myanmar, and I do happen to know the primitive conditions in which the locals usually live, many of whom
are uneducated to any but the lowest levels. Poverty is widespread. It may even emerge that their subsistence levels of income will not allow payment for the
power that they would choose to consume. Fortunately, in parts of PNG there are thriving agricultural sectors, namely coffee, copra and palm oil, plus
employment in mining activities, which translate into some levels of disposable income among the local growers and mining company employees.
This letter is probably not very helpful to you all, but, nevertheless I am trying to find a way that we could become involved for our primary objective when we
started this company in 1998 was to try to help the disadvantaged people living in remote parts of developing countries by introducing some relatively
inexpensive electric power from a renewable energy source into their lives. The near fatal flaw in our business plan was, put purely and simply, the fact that
these good people just do not have enough money to buy even our smallest micro-hydro generator, nor had they ever seen any of the low head propeller
turbines that are so widespread in Vietnam – see photo.
Kind regards,
David Seymour