Situation des marchés régionaux et production

PRAIA CABO VERDE
5-8 décembre 2023
2023/2024 season
provisional figures and the
regional market situation
39ème
RÉUNION
ANNUELLE
© Shutterstock/PhotopankPL
www.food-security.net
by Dr. Sy Martial, TRAORE, CILSS

Plan
• Background
• Reminder about the progress of 2023/2024 cropping season
• 2023/2024 provisional cereal production figures
• Provisional cereal food balance for 2023/2024
• 2023/2024 roots and tubers production figures
• 2023/2024 cash crops production figures
• Pastoral situation
• Regional nutrition situation
• Regional market situation
• Recommendations

Background
• Joint CILSS/FAO/FEWSNET/WFP and Governments preharvest assessments have
been conducted in 17 countries from October to November 2023
• The production figures for all the countries and all the main crops have been presented and
validated during the regional PREGEC meeting 22-24 November 2023 at Conakry
in Guinea ;
• All countries have taken part of the regional PREGEC meeting, only Burkina
Faso which are presented one line ;
• 10 Countries have really conducted crop assessment by sample survey :
Benin, Burkina Faso, Gambia, Niger, Nigeria, Mali, Togo, Senegal, Chad,
Cabo Verde;
• 7 Countries have made an estimation based on season monitoring and
historical data : Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Bissau Guinea, Guinea; Ghana;
Mauritania, Sierra Leone ---> Significant changes in historical data.

Progress of 2023/2024 cropping season
Rainfall situation
Estimated seasonal rainfall cumuli Estimated anomalies (in mm) in seasonal rainfall totals
Rainfall for the 2023/2024 season was very contrasted in
Western Africa and Sahel region:
Quantitatively: cumulative rainfall is close to normal
Qualitatively: poorly distributed rainfall, with long dry spells,
particularly in Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Chad.
The 2023 agricultural season started early
overall, particularly in the countries of the Gulf
of Guinea, the Sudanian band and in certain
areas of the Central and Western Sahel.

Hydrological situation
Senegal Basin : Bakel Station Middle Niger River Basin:
Niamey Station
Upper Niger river basin:
Satation of koulikoro
The main river basins in the region are characterised by :
run-offs lower overall than the average run-offs for the last five years, particularly in the
Niger and Lake Chad basins.
Relative to normal: still normal in most basins.
Cases of flooding were observed in Nigeria, Ghana, Benin, Guinea and Senegal..

Crop situation
Estimated sowing dates in SWA 2023
Dry spells = No. of consecutive dry
days
Yield anomalies
Photoperiodic sorghum
A generally early or average start to
the agricultural season in the West
African and Sahelian countries;
Persistence of long dry periods in
certain localities, the Sahelian band
Estimated yield declines are significant in the Sahelian countries and in
parts of the Sahelo-Sudan zone (Chad, Nigeria, Niger, Mali, ..
 Increasement in estimated yields have been observed in Senegal,
Guinea Bissau and in some areas of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso
and Mali.
Maize 90 days

Pests and diseases
Calm CP situation in the region until October
Seuls quelques larves et ailés isolés, et certains épars, observés dans le Sahel
septentrional en Mauritanie, au Mali, au Niger et au Tchad
• Ailés isolés dans le sud de l’Algérie et le sud du Sahara occidental
No significant change expected
Low to moderate in most countries _ Moderate to high
in S/E Benin, along the Senegal River, S/O B.Faso
Mineuse
de l’épi
du mil
(NE)
Oiseaux granivores
(TD, NE, ML, MA, SN, BF)
Insectes
floricoles
(Sahel)
Chenille
défoliatrice
du cacaoyer
(RCI, Liberia,
S-Leone,
Guinée)
Chenille
poilue du
Niébé
(SN)
Jassides du
Cotonnier (BF, CI,
ML, SN, TD, TG, BE)
Continue with surveillance operations (CP in PLF,
CLA, etc.);Promote research into alternatives for
controlling granivorous birds and rodents Build
capacity

2023/2024 provisional cereal production figures
76 514 078 tons
-1% vs 2022 3% vs M5ANS
73 055 636
Low assumptions
80 251 390
High assumptions
The PREGEC hypotheses for September
Cereal production 2023/2024

Growth in cereal production by zone
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
60,000,000
65,000,000
70,000,000
75,000,000
80,000,000
2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024
PRODUCTION
TONNES)
SEASONS
Sahelian Countries: Axe 2
Région SAO: Axe 1
Axe 1 Axe 2
Costal countries: Axe 2

Cultures/Crops 2023/2024 Var22/23 VarMoy5A 2023/2024
Maïs/Maize 26 241 873 -4,3% -1,4% 34%
Riz/Rice 24 421 505 7,1% 13,7% 32%
Sorgho/Sorghum 14 479 727 5,5% -2,8% 19%
Mil/Millet 10 448 087 -4,5% 0,9% 14%
Fonio/Acha 773 874 9,9% 20,2% 1%
Blé/Wheat-Barley 148 012 5,9% 30,8% 0%
Total 76 514 078 -1,3% 5,8% 100%
Cereal Production per crop

Production figure per country
Countries Productions Vs 2022/2023 VarMoy5A
Bénin 2 428 900 6% 9%
Côte d'Ivoire 3 381 047 10% 11%
Guinée 5 464 913 11% 31%
Ghana 5 354 616 4% 18%
Liberia 330 000 15% 22%
Nigeria 28 110 740 -7% -6%
Sierra Leone 1 673 890 10% 21%
Togo 1 510 546 5% 9%
Pays Côtiers 48 254 652 -1% 3%
Burkina Faso 5 245 837 1% 4%
Cap Vert 2 389 -49% 88%
Gambie 119 063 12% 19%
Guinée
Bissau
307 209 2% 18%
Mali 9 965 527 -1% 0%
Mauritanie 563 252 4% 26%
Niger 5 163 868 -13% -3%
Sénégal 4 255 353 16% 29%
Tchad 2 636 929 -6% -7%
SAHEL 28 259 427 -1% 4%

Production figure per country per head (kg)
Countries Production par Var22/23 VarMoy5A
tête
Burkina Faso 224 -2% -4%
Cap Vert 4 -49% 85%
Gambie 44 8% 10%
Guinée Bissau 141 0% 10%
Mali 436 -4% -9%
Mauritanie 108 1% 17%
Niger 183 -16% -14%
Sénégal 228 13% 20%
Tchad 142 -9% -16%
SAHEL 231 -4% -6%
Countries Production par Var22/23 VarMoy5A
tête
Bénin 180 3% 1%
Côte d'Ivoire 116 8% 3%
Guinée 371 8% 21%
Ghana 158 2% 11%
Liberia 59 12% 13%
Nigeria 123 -9% -13%
Sierra Leone 193 8% 13%
Togo 166 2% 2%
Costal C. 141 -4% -4%
TOTAL 164 -4% -5%

Production figure per zone
TOTAL 76 514 078 -1% 3%
Zone UEMOA 32 258 287 1% 6%
Zone CEDEAO 73 313 898 -1% 4%
CILSS 41 044 833 2% 8%
Bassin est 38 340 437 -7% -5%
Bassin centre 25 457 573 2% 6%
Bassin ouest 12 716 068 12% 28%

Grain
balance
forecast
Postes Riz/Rice Blé/Wheat
(Mil, sorgho, maïs,
fonio), others cereals
Total
0 462 104 093
1. Disponibilités/Availability 18 538 683 1 631 374 46 428 065 66 598 121
Production brute 2023/2024 24 421 505 148 012 51 944 561 76 514 078
Production disponible 15 574 844 135 360 43 434 073 59 144 277
Stocks initiaux (au 01/11/2023) 3 501 645 1 496 014 2 993 991 7 991 650
-Socks paysans 318 479 14 759 895 446 1 228 684
-Autres stocks 3 046 591 1 481 255 2 048 659 6 576 505
67 M
2. Beoins -Needs 27 002 758 10 132 524 41 211 301 78 346 583
Normes de consommation (kg/hbt/an) 58 22 89 170
Consommation humaine 23 856 095 9 590 743 38 785 137 72 231 975
Stocks finaux (au 31/10/2024) 3 146 662 541 781 2 426 164 6 114 607
-Socks paysans 2 589 985 428 313 2 054 623 5 072 921
-Autres stocks 656 678 118 468 372 541 1 147 687
3. Excédent(+)/Déficit(-) brut 8 464 075
- 8 501 150
- 5 216 764 11 748 461
-
77 M
-10.7 M
4. Solde import/export 10 023 197 7 992 524 1 039 448 19 055 169
Importations commerciales (2023/2024) 10 160 646 8 510 140 1 258 067 19 928 853
+ Commerçants privés 8 997 879 8 379 140 847 820 18 224 839
+ Autres importations 1 151 957 131 000 410 247 1 693 204
Aides alimentaires 10 810 - - 10 810
Exportations prévues 137 449 517 616 218 619 873 684
5. Excédent(+)/Déficit(-) net 1 559 122 508 626
- 6 256 212 7 306 708
0
6. Disponibilité apparente/HBT(kg) 62 21 103 185
22 M
198 Kg

Progress of
2023/2024 cropping
season
Postes Riz/Rice Blé/Wheat
(Mil, sorgho, maïs,
fonio), others cereals
Total
Burkina Faso 406 925
- 24 323
- 1 025 470 594 221
Cap Vert 2 405
- 4 962
- 60 387
- 67 754
-
Gambie 51 592
- 19 837
- 13 579
- 85 008
-
Guinée Bissau 14 424 6 912 3 472 24 809
Mali 216 708 49 469
- 2 268 912 2 436 151
Mauritanie 73 586 319 835 28 206
- 365 215
Niger 188 579 139 746
- 153 171
- 104 337
-
Sénégal 474 526 794 454 1 290 941 2 559 921
Tchad 77 666 107 196
- 496 116
- 525 646
-
SAHEL 584 567 775 668 3 837 337 5 197 572
Bénin 556 026 66 513
- 450 481 939 994
Côte d'Ivoire 1 732 561 282 453 687 725 2 702 738
Guinée 563 389 341 1 155 861 1 719 591
Ghana 743 132 418 865
- 121 867 446 134
Liberia 236 500 74 400
- 2 000 164 100
Nigeria 3 300 261
- 976 010
- 146 976 4 129 295
-
Sierra Leone 261 123 509 413 891
- 152 259
-
Togo 182 087 29 205
- 267 857 420 738
Pays Côtiers 974 555 1 281 689
- 2 418 875 2 111 741
TOTAL 1 559 122 506 021
- 6 256 212 7 309 313
Zone UEMOA 2 957 985 774 564 5 841 687 9 574 236
Zone CEDEAO 1 407 870 718 660
- 6 780 533 7 469 744
CILSS 3 618 628 962 745 6 399 260 10 980 634
Bassin est 2 477 990
- 1 289 464
- 51 830
- 3 819 284
-
Bassin centre 2 467 562 239 409
- 4 371 830 6 599 983
Bassin ouest 1 569 551 1 022 852 1 936 211 4 528 614

2023/2024 provisional roots and tubers production
figures
204 713 977 tons
2% vs 2022 7% vs M5ANS
199 926 488
Low assumption
211 088 079
High assumption
The PREGEC hypotheses for September

figures
Production per crop
Crops Production Var2022/2023 VarMoy5A %age
Cassava 111 662 436 2,7% 10,1% 56%
Yam 77 675 660 2,3% 2,4% 39%
S Potato 7 135 575 -0,4% 11,5% 4%
Patoto 2 906 215 2,8% 14,0% 1%
Taro/Cocoyam 5 334 090 1,8% 3,7% 3%
Total 204 713 977 2,4% 7,0% 100%

figures
Countries 2023-2024 Var22/23 VarMoy5A
TOTAL 204 713 977 2% 7%
Zone UEMOA 29 962 061 1% 8%
Zone CEDEAO 204 191 637 2% 7%
CILSS 35 275 539 2% 11%
Bassin est 136 150 986 2% 4%
Bassin centre 59 402 211 3% 14%
Bassin ouest 9 160 780 0% 14%

2023/2024 provisional leguminous and oil seeds production
figures (1/2)
Spéculations Production Var2022/2023 VarMoy5A
Groundnut 13 228 866 11,9% 25,1%
Cotton 2 963 628 19,2% 6,2%
Cowpea 8 385 592 -3,1% 1,2%
Sesame 1 112 518 3,3% -5,8%
Sojabean 2 661 978 13,2% 46,6%
Wandzou 210 551 -4,4% 1,2%
Total 37 555 723 16% 17%

2023/2024 provisional leguminous and oil seeds
production figures 2/2
Spéculations Production Var2022/2023 VarMoy5A
Cacao* 3 467 405 -5,9% -1,5%
Coffe* 348 494 2,1% 8,0%
Rubber* 1 623 467 0,7% 31,5%
Cajau* 3 269 480 0,7% 31,5%
Palm Oil* 8 969 371 5,5% 14,2%
Plantain* 14 994 310 3,1% 22,2%
*Several producer countries did not provide data

Pastoral situation
Insecurity/conflicts - Restriction of movements - prohibition of cross-border
transhumance - modification of certain axes - concentration zones. areas of
concentration,
Severe hunger shortage following last year's poor season in some
countries / huge losses of livestock at the start of the season in Niger;
Varying vegetation establishment - early and dry;
Significant deficits are observed in the
following areas
In the other zones and administrative units of the
Sahelian countries, production is higher than or
equivalent to the median for the last five years.
Context

Pastoral situation
On the Atlantic seaboard, i.e. in Mauritania and Senegal,
biomass production was higher overall than the median and last
year's levels.
But low between Mauritania and Senegal
In the eastern half of the Sahel, which includes the Zinder and Diffa
regions of Niger and Chad, biomass production is below the median for
the last 5 years and below last year's level.
In the central Sahel, which includes the eastern half of Mali, Burkina
Faso and the western half of Niger, fodder production is higher than
both the median and last year;;
But weak in Niger; Tahoua, northern Maradi, Dosso, and north-eastern
Tillabéry and in northern Mali (Timbuktu, Kidal and Gao).
The availability of water for livestock watering is generally
satisfactory, and the animal health situation is relatively calm.
• Protect pastures against bush fires;Encourage the cultivation of
fodder crops;
• Strengthen monitoring of the pastoral situation at regional and
national levels.
• Draw up and update national specific support plans
Recommendations

Nutritional situation
Trends in the prevalence of GAM (SAHEL)
8.4
13.5
10
11.6
15
8.1
12.9
9.4
11.2
10.7
9.1
10
7.2
12.7
9.7 10.1 10
11.1
12.5
7
8.6
10.8
13.2
12.2
7.5*
11.1*
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Burkina Chad Mali Mauritania Niger
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
GAM Very High
GAM High
Keyfacts&riskfactors
The majority of regions have GAM levels >10%,
Some regions with rates exceeding the emergency threshold (15%);
Highly unstable security situation;
An increase in the number of internally displaced people -An increase in the number of closed
health facilities
Recommendations
Strengthen the nutrition surveillance system and explore new
methodologies for collecting data to inform early action and a more
effective humanitarian nutrition response even when survey data is not
available;
Strengthen programs to prevent acute malnutrition, including local
solutions;
Strengthen the resilience of systems and communities and promote
local solutions in preventive responses to improve access to nutritious

Regional markets situation
Context
AgriculturalCampaign
A relatively average crop year with a
mixed outcome
Cereal -1,3% 2022; 5,8% 5yrs
Tuber : +2% vs 2022; +7 5yrs
A poor outlook :
Niger, Tchad and Nigeria
Economicsituationofcountries
20%
24%
Inflation persists in some countries, keeping
regional inflation high ; Sierra Leone,
Ghana, Nigeria, Gambia, Liberia
Regionalinsecurity
Event count: 8429, +5% yearly
Fatality : 7%
Time period : 01/11/2022 to 31/10/2023
Vs Last Year
Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria
DPI AND REFUGEES, situation of octobre 2023
Liptako-
Gourma
Bassin du
Lac Tchad

Cereal price Overall increase in cereal prices
Millet
+50%
Sorghum
+54%
Maize
+53%
(46 – 59 %)
Local Rice
+38%
(39 – 56 %)
Imported Rice
+34%
(24 – 29 %)
All cereal
+44%
(39 – 50 %)
Stable compare to sept 23
Consumer prices compare to 5 years average
+6pts
+.5pts
(43 – 57 %) (47 – 61 %)
-2pts -2pts -4pts
-10pts
Cereal prices varaitions
November 2023
Change vs septembre 2023

Root and tubers
Root and tubers price variation vs 5 years average (%)

Livestock prices variations
Livestock prices variations vs 5 years average (%)

Team of trades: (TOT)
With high cereal prices, small ruminant/cereal
ToTs in general remain below average in the
Sahel. However, there has been a slight
improvement since 2023, except in areas
affected by civil insecurity.
Attractive palm oil prices in the coastal
countries of the western basin keep TDEs
above average
Palm oil /cereal
Livestock/cereal: Small ruminant/cereal ToT in general remain below average in the Sahel
above-average Tot, except in
Nigeria

Recommendations
Access to basic foodstuffs remains difficult (post harvest period)
by the high prices as a result, general inflation, civil insecurity,
international market disruptions, high fuel prices, dropping
exchange rates, DPI, etc..
•Strengthen the monitoring of market supplies
•Strengthen the monitoring of key macroeconomic indicators
for early warning analysis
•Include more and more processed commodities in price
monitoring
•Continuously train and build the capacity of technical staff in
market analysis
•Suspend all cereal export restrictions taken by countries in
order to ensure the free movement of food products across the

Situation des marchés régionaux et production

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