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RPCA-PPT-Avril_2022-Résultats définitifs_situation des marchés régionaux.pptx

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RPCA-PPT-Avril_2022-Résultats définitifs_situation des marchés régionaux.pptx

  1. 1. RPCA, April 2022 RESTRICTED MEETING 2021/2022 season final figures and the regional market situation by Sy Martial, TRAORE, CILSS
  2. 2. Plan • Background • 2021/2022 final cereal production figures • Final cereal food balance for 2021/2022 • 2021/2022 roots and tubers final production figures • 2021/2022 leguminous final production figures • Pastoral situation • Regional markets situation • Recommendations
  3. 3. Background • The production figures for all the countries and all the main crops have been presented and validated during the regional PREGEC meeting, in Dakar, Senegal (28 – 30 march, 2022); • Representing from all countries have taken part of the regional PREGEC meeting ; • 9 Countries have really conducted crop assessment by sample survey : Cabo-Verde; Benin, Burkina Faso, Gambia, Niger, Nigeria, Mali, Togo, Senegal, Chad; • 7 Countries have made an estimation based on season monitoring and historical data : Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Bissau-Guinea, Guinea; Ghana; Mauritania, Sierra Leone • Forage balance sheet improvement but only : Burkina, Mauritania, Niger, Chad, Senegal • Progess in food balance sheet : Burkina Faso, Togo, Guinea and Niger. Mali, Senegal, Mauritania and Gambia
  4. 4. 2021/2022 Final cereal production figures 73million mT, increased by -2.4% vs last year and 2.7% vs average 5years 60 000 000 62 000 000 64 000 000 66 000 000 68 000 000 70 000 000 72 000 000 74 000 000 76 000 000 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 PRODUCTION TONNES) SEASONS
  5. 5. 2020/2021 final cereal production figures Situation per cereal Crops 2021/2022 Var20/21 VarMoy5A Maize 27 658 424 3,6% 11,6% Rice 22 222 284 5,1% 8,0% Sorghum 13 648 419 -10,5% -6,3% Millet 8 630 653 -19,6% -17,1% Fonio/Acha 775 553 4,3% 12,0% Wheat-Barley 85 446 -23,7% -87,7% Total 73 020 778 -2,4% 2,7%
  6. 6. 2021/2022 final cereal production figures Production per Countries and zones Countries Productions Vs 2019/2020 Var Avg 5yrs Burkina Faso 4 661 140 -10,0% -3% Cap Vert 209 -76% Gambie 104 040 -3,4% -13% Guinée Bissau 279 921 8,7% 21% Mali 8 800 956 -15,0% -10% Mauritanie 467 595 15,5% 25% Niger 3 503 224 -39% -39% Sénégal 3 480 394 -4,4% 25% Tchad 2 620 315 -9,1% -9% SAHEL 23 917 794 -16% -11%
  7. 7. 2021/2022 final cereal production figures Production per countries and zones Countries Productions Vs 2019/2020 Var Avg 5yrs Bénin 2 308 913 6% 11% Côte d'Ivoire 2 956 955 5% -6% Guinée 4 869 446 4% 19% Ghana 5 309 115 16% 44% Liberia 255 588 -5% 22% Nigeria 29 877 835 2% 5% Sierra Leone 2 121 560 80% 62% Togo 1 403 573 4% 6% Costal countries 49 102 985 6% 11%
  8. 8. 2021/2022 final cereal production figures Production per countries and zones Zones Productions Var20/21 VarMoy5A UEMOA 27 267 640 -13% -9% ECOWAS 69 805 433 -2% 3% CILSS 35 329 245 -10% -6% Eastern basin 38 310 287 -4% -2% Central basin 23 004 304 -5% 1% Western basin 11 578 752 10% 27%
  9. 9. 2021/2022 final cereal production figures Cereal production per head Countries 2021/2022 (kg/head/year) Var 2020/2021 (%) Var 5 ys Average (%) Burkina Faso 218 -5% -7% Cap Vert* - Gambie 45 -10% -43% Guinée Bissau 131 7% 16% Mali 449 -11% -3% Mauritanie 111 -1% -29% Niger 193 -20% -14% Sénégal 201 -1% 31% Tchad 165 -4% -9% SAHEL 235 -10% -6%
  10. 10. 2021/2022 final cereal production figures Cereal production per head Countries 2021/2022 (kg/head/year) Var 2020/2021 (%) Var 5 ys Average (%) Bénin 183 7% 13% Côte d'Ivoire 110 2% -14% Guinée 370 15% 13% Ghana 148 3% 22% Liberia 49 -5% -49% Nigeria 141 1% 10% Sierra Léone 266 94% 78% Togo 174 0% -4% Costal Countries 152 5% 3% ALL Zone 174 -1% 0%
  11. 11. Regional Cereal balance Sheet reviewed (2021/2022) Postes Riz/Rice Blé/Wheat (Mil, sorgho, maïs, fonio), others cereals Total 0 436 470 275 Population au 30/04/2022 1. Disponibilités/Availability 15 887 363 715 506 47 741 999 64 344 869 Production brute 2021/2022 22 222 284 85 446 50 713 049 73 020 778 Production disponible 14 349 528 71 529 42 091 825 56 512 883 Stocks initiaux (au 01/11/2021) 2 223 327 643 977 6 690 111 9 557 415 -Socks paysans 597 727 244 050 3 395 251 4 237 028 -Autres stocks 1 394 106 399 927 1 968 734 3 762 767 0 - 2. Beoins -Needs 19 516 961 8 037 761 42 325 815 69 880 536 Normes de consommation (kg/hbt/an) 45 18 97 160 Consommation humaine 17 688 402 7 610 984 36 846 367 62 145 753 Stocks finaux (au 31/10/2022) 1 828 559 426 777 5 479 448 7 734 784 -Socks paysans 1 367 595 331 383 4 702 323 6 401 301 -Autres stocks 560 964 100 394 778 125 1 439 483 3. Excédent(+)/Déficit(-) brut 3 629 598 - 7 322 255 - 5 416 185 5 535 668 - 0 4. Solde import/export 9 783 491 8 093 278 679 751 18 556 520 Importations commerciales (2021/2022) 9 810 609 8 544 827 1 210 166 19 565 602 + Commerçants privés 8 271 800 8 050 288 1 165 051 17 487 139 + Autres importations 1 537 909 494 539 45 115 2 077 563 Aides alimentaires 900 - - 900 Exportations prévues 27 118 451 549 530 415 1 009 082 5. Excédent(+)/Déficit(-) net 6 153 893 771 023 6 095 936 13 020 852 0 6. Disponibilité apparente/HBT(kg) 59 20 111 190
  12. 12. Regional Cereal balance Sheet Postes Riz/Rice Blé/Wheat (Mil, sorgho, maïs, fonio), others cereals Total Burkina Faso 175 499 21 035 (110 022) 86 512 Cap Vert 4 463 (3 625) (36 551) (35 713) Gambie 94 545 97 653 (185 229) 6 969 Guinée Bissau (21 289) (14 450) (19 976) (55 715) Mali 102 460 153 928 2 365 514 2 621 902 Mauritanie (1 653) 299 720 (73 632) 224 435 Niger 421 962 (113 278) (958 005) (649 320) Sénégal 172 460 202 993 1 049 725 1 425 177 Tchad 151 436 (127 181) (382 943) (358 688) SAHEL 1 099 883 516 795 1 648 880 3 265 558 Bénin 1 066 900 (7 584) 248 245 1 307 561 Côte d'Ivoire 480 728 306 023 724 124 1 510 876 Guinée 1 117 343 287 695 791 089 2 196 127 Ghana 225 353 (270 140) 861 133 816 346 Liberia 173 250 (74 400) 2 000 100 850 Nigeria 1 133 127 (104 937) 2 005 959 3 034 149 Sierra Leone 722 516 8 971 (403 700) 327 787 Togo 134 794 108 600 218 205 461 599 Pays Côtiers 5 054 010 254 228 4 447 055 9 755 293 TOTAL 6 153 893 771 023 6 095 936 13 020 852 Zone UEMOA 2 533 513 657 268 3 517 810 6 708 591 Zone CEDEAO 6 004 110 598 484 6 552 511 13 155 105 CILSS 3 899 648 1 211 529 3 630 544 8 741 720 Bassin est 2 773 425 (352 980) 913 256 3 333 701 Bassin centre 1 118 834 319 447 4 058 953 5 497 234 Bassin ouest 2 261 634 804 556 1 123 726 4 189 916
  13. 13. Roots and Tubers production final figure (2021/2022) Crops Production Million mT Var. 2020/2021 (%) Var. Average 5yrs (%) Cassava 103 373 656 4,9% 9,9% Yam 81 632 905 6,7% 12,5% Sweet potato 6 377 259 6,0% 13,8% Irish potato 2 133 737 3,3% 10,5% Coco yam 10 324 814 0,3% 8,9% Total 203 842 372 5,4% 11,0% 203 854 372; 5% VS 2020/2021 et 11% vs Ag5ys
  14. 14. Leguminous and oil seeds final production figure (2021/2022) Crops Production Million mT Var. 2020/2021 (%) Var. Average 5yrs (%) Ground nut 10 616 714 -1,0% 9,8% Cowpea 7 594 694 -10,6% -5,0% Sesame 1 136 699 -14,9% 1,1% Cotton 3 230 678 24,6% 15,8% Soyabean 1 970 035 6,7% 31,8% Bambara nut 185 274 -21,9% -1,9% Total 25 364 351 0,5% 9,0%
  15. 15. Other productions Crop Production Var. 2020/2021 (%) Var. Average 5yrs (%) Cacao 4 094 554 16,1% 22,2% Coffee 310 481 -6,7% 11,3% Rubber 1 374 007 12,4% 46,6% Cashew nut 1 747 839 8,8% 24,7% Palm Oil 6 954 239 28,5% -11,6% Plantain 14 534 701 5,8% 29,2%
  16. 16. Pastoral situation • Despite the relatively average fodder production this year at the end of the rainy season; • Fodder deficit exacerbated by bush fires and civil insecurity limit access to pasture; • Cross-border transhumance is limited or prohibited by some host countries • An early pastoral lean season with abnormal movements and concentrations of livestock in secure areas Biomass production in kg of dry matter per hectare (Kg.MS/ha) octobre 2021
  17. 17. Regional markets situations • Global cereal production down by 2% (Vs 2020) -16% for Sahelian countries; • A relatively lower than usual level of cereal carryover stocks; • The persistence of inflation in several countries in the region, which is currently spreading to all countries; • A deteriorating security situation that has resulted in over 5 million IDPs in the region; • A rather complicated regional political situation; • An already very difficult food and nutrition situation: 27 million in crisis • An exacerbation of road congestion; • A 2022/2023 horizon that looks even more difficult in view of the war in Ukraine
  18. 18. Regional markets situations Cereal price 41 : 46% Maize 32 : 36% Millet 33 : 37% Sorghum 16 : 21% Rice local 15 : 19% Rice imp. 19 : 27% Wheat Overall increase in cereal prices (33 : 37%), Important increase vs November 21 for all the crop
  19. 19. Regional markets situations Cereals prices changes vs 5 years averages
  20. 20. Regional markets situations Livestock prices variations : Jan - Feb vs average 5years 29% -2% 17% 33% 12% 27% 2% 20% 14%14% 25% 6% 23% 34% 11% 26% -1% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% BF ML MR NE SN TD BF ML MR NE SN TD BF ML MR NE SN TD NE ML Cattle Sheep Goat Camel
  21. 21. Recommendations To CILSS, ECOWAS and UEMOA: Pursue negotiations that should lead very quickly to the suspension of the embargo on Mali in specific areas related to trade in food products with other countries in the Community area; Continue to advocate for the implementation by States of vigorous political measures to ensure compliance with Community provisions on the free movement of goods and persons Continue to advocate with governments for the immediate suspension of border closure measures and the reduction of road harassment linked to the strengthening of security arrangements in certain States Strengthen advocacy with governments for the gradual lifting of measures restricting or prohibiting cross-border transhumance, in compliance with Community provisions on pastoral mobilitý Take steps to facilitate the supply of agricultural inputs, particularly fertilizer, to producers in order to strengthen agricultural production in the 2022/2023 season
  22. 22. Recommendations To the States Accelerate financial mobilisation for the implementation of response plans for vulnerable populations severely affected by the multifactorial food and nutrition crises; Release the border closure decisions imposed by the anti-covid-19 measures in order to facilitate the trade flow of food products between the States of the region Take vigorous policy measures to reduce barriers, harassment and other forms of restriction to the free movement of goods and services within and between countries; Implement adequate policy and financial measures aimed at mitigating the effects of inflation and price hikes on the access of the most vulnerable households to food; Activate bilateral cooperation mechanisms for cross-border transhumance and support pastoral organisations in the supply of livestock feed to mitigate the consequences of the early pastoral hunger gap
  23. 23. Recommendations For the attention of the partners: Support states' efforts to implement national response plans; Support national and regional initiatives in capacity building of food and nutrition securitý information systems.
  24. 24. Many thanks for your attention!

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