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PRAIA CABO VERDE
5-8 décembre 2023
GEOGRAPHIE DE
L’INSECURITE AU
SAHEL ET EN
AFRIQUE DE L’OUEST
39ème
RÉUNION ANNUELLE
© Shutterstock/PhotopankPL
www.food-security.net
Dr. Olivier WALTHER, Consultant CSAO/OCDE
University of Florida, owalther@ufl.edu
Mapping conflicts in North and West Africa
2020 2021 2022 2023
• How does space shape political violence?
• Reports: http://oecd.org/swac Data: https://mapping-africa-transformations.org/ Code: https://github.com/oecd-swac/OECD-SCDi
An unprecedented increase in violence
Note: *2023 data are projections based on a doubling of the number of fatalities recorded through June 30, 2023. Source: Adapted from ACLED (2023). © 2023. Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC/OECD)
• Violence has never been so high in West Africa
The geography of violence is changing
Note: data available through June 30, 2023. Source: Adapted from ACLED (2023).
Fatalities in North and West Africa, 2019-2023 Fatalities in North and West Africa, 1999-2003
• 90% of violent events in only 5 countries
Borderlands are far more violent than other regions
Note: data available through June 30, 2023. Source: Adapted from ACLED (2023).
• Conflicts sharply decrease with distance from borders
• 9% of all events, 11% of all
fatalities occur within 10 km
• 22% of events, 20% of fatalities
within 30 km
• Border regions used as safe
havens to escape security forces,
recruit locally, and exploit natural
resources
The Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi)
Source: Adapted from ACLED (2022). © 2022. Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC/OECD)
• Four types of conflicts
The Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi)
Source: Adapted from ACLED (2022). © 2022. Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC/OECD)
SCDi in North and West Africa, 2019 SCDi in North and West Africa, 2022
• Conflicts tend to expand regionally
The Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi)
Source: Adapted from ACLED (2022). © 2022. Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC/OECD)
SCDi in the Central Sahel, 2018 SCDi in the Central Sahel, 2022
• Conflicts spread from the Central Sahel to the Gulf of Guinea
Violence decreases with distance from urban areas
Source: OECD (2023) based on ACLED and WorldPop data.
• Violence tends to cluster near urban areas
• 60% of all events occurred within
40 km of an urban area
• While most of the violence was
rural, the majority occurred
relatively close to urban areas
• Cities remain important sites of
state authority, markets, places of
religious education, political
control and contestation
Small cities are more violent than large ones
Source: OECD (2023) based on ACLED and Africapolis data.
• Small cities are in close proximity to rural violence
• Violence tends to be
clustered in small urban
areas
• Cities of less than
100,000 people are
particularly affected by
violence
Violence is becoming increasingly rural
Source: OECD (2023) based on ACLED and WorldPop data.
• Violent events by demographic category, NW Africa, 2000-22
• Violence has become more
rural over time
• The rapid urbanization of the
region does not lead to an
increase in urban conflict
• This trend is particularly visible
in the Sahel, where violence is
driven Jihadist groups
Rural violence is driven by Jihadist insurgencies
Source: OECD (2023) based on ACLED and WorldPop data.
• Violent events involving select jihadist groups, 2007-21
• Jihadists are responsible for
most rural violence
• Most visible in Burkina Faso,
Mali and Niger
• A ruralizing trend explained by
the fact that Jihadist groups try
to control rural areas before
imposing blockades on cities
Future research
Source: OECD (2023) and RPCA.
• How do political security and food security interact in West Africa?
www.food-security.net

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Géographie de l’insécurité civile dans le Sahel et l’Afrique de l’Ouest

  • 1. PRAIA CABO VERDE 5-8 décembre 2023 GEOGRAPHIE DE L’INSECURITE AU SAHEL ET EN AFRIQUE DE L’OUEST 39ème RÉUNION ANNUELLE © Shutterstock/PhotopankPL www.food-security.net Dr. Olivier WALTHER, Consultant CSAO/OCDE University of Florida, owalther@ufl.edu
  • 2. Mapping conflicts in North and West Africa 2020 2021 2022 2023 • How does space shape political violence? • Reports: http://oecd.org/swac Data: https://mapping-africa-transformations.org/ Code: https://github.com/oecd-swac/OECD-SCDi
  • 3. An unprecedented increase in violence Note: *2023 data are projections based on a doubling of the number of fatalities recorded through June 30, 2023. Source: Adapted from ACLED (2023). © 2023. Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC/OECD) • Violence has never been so high in West Africa
  • 4. The geography of violence is changing Note: data available through June 30, 2023. Source: Adapted from ACLED (2023). Fatalities in North and West Africa, 2019-2023 Fatalities in North and West Africa, 1999-2003 • 90% of violent events in only 5 countries
  • 5. Borderlands are far more violent than other regions Note: data available through June 30, 2023. Source: Adapted from ACLED (2023). • Conflicts sharply decrease with distance from borders • 9% of all events, 11% of all fatalities occur within 10 km • 22% of events, 20% of fatalities within 30 km • Border regions used as safe havens to escape security forces, recruit locally, and exploit natural resources
  • 6. The Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) Source: Adapted from ACLED (2022). © 2022. Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC/OECD) • Four types of conflicts
  • 7. The Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) Source: Adapted from ACLED (2022). © 2022. Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC/OECD) SCDi in North and West Africa, 2019 SCDi in North and West Africa, 2022 • Conflicts tend to expand regionally
  • 8. The Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) Source: Adapted from ACLED (2022). © 2022. Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC/OECD) SCDi in the Central Sahel, 2018 SCDi in the Central Sahel, 2022 • Conflicts spread from the Central Sahel to the Gulf of Guinea
  • 9. Violence decreases with distance from urban areas Source: OECD (2023) based on ACLED and WorldPop data. • Violence tends to cluster near urban areas • 60% of all events occurred within 40 km of an urban area • While most of the violence was rural, the majority occurred relatively close to urban areas • Cities remain important sites of state authority, markets, places of religious education, political control and contestation
  • 10. Small cities are more violent than large ones Source: OECD (2023) based on ACLED and Africapolis data. • Small cities are in close proximity to rural violence • Violence tends to be clustered in small urban areas • Cities of less than 100,000 people are particularly affected by violence
  • 11. Violence is becoming increasingly rural Source: OECD (2023) based on ACLED and WorldPop data. • Violent events by demographic category, NW Africa, 2000-22 • Violence has become more rural over time • The rapid urbanization of the region does not lead to an increase in urban conflict • This trend is particularly visible in the Sahel, where violence is driven Jihadist groups
  • 12. Rural violence is driven by Jihadist insurgencies Source: OECD (2023) based on ACLED and WorldPop data. • Violent events involving select jihadist groups, 2007-21 • Jihadists are responsible for most rural violence • Most visible in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger • A ruralizing trend explained by the fact that Jihadist groups try to control rural areas before imposing blockades on cities
  • 13. Future research Source: OECD (2023) and RPCA. • How do political security and food security interact in West Africa?