2. Mapping conflicts in North and West Africa
2020 2021 2022 2023
• How does space shape political violence?
• Reports: http://oecd.org/swac Data: https://mapping-africa-transformations.org/ Code: https://github.com/oecd-swac/OECD-SCDi
4. The geography of violence is changing
Note: data available through June 30, 2023. Source: Adapted from ACLED (2023).
Fatalities in North and West Africa, 2019-2023 Fatalities in North and West Africa, 1999-2003
• 90% of violent events in only 5 countries
5. Borderlands are far more violent than other regions
Note: data available through June 30, 2023. Source: Adapted from ACLED (2023).
• Conflicts sharply decrease with distance from borders
• 9% of all events, 11% of all
fatalities occur within 10 km
• 22% of events, 20% of fatalities
within 30 km
• Border regions used as safe
havens to escape security forces,
recruit locally, and exploit natural
resources
9. Violence decreases with distance from urban areas
Source: OECD (2023) based on ACLED and WorldPop data.
• Violence tends to cluster near urban areas
• 60% of all events occurred within
40 km of an urban area
• While most of the violence was
rural, the majority occurred
relatively close to urban areas
• Cities remain important sites of
state authority, markets, places of
religious education, political
control and contestation
10. Small cities are more violent than large ones
Source: OECD (2023) based on ACLED and Africapolis data.
• Small cities are in close proximity to rural violence
• Violence tends to be
clustered in small urban
areas
• Cities of less than
100,000 people are
particularly affected by
violence
11. Violence is becoming increasingly rural
Source: OECD (2023) based on ACLED and WorldPop data.
• Violent events by demographic category, NW Africa, 2000-22
• Violence has become more
rural over time
• The rapid urbanization of the
region does not lead to an
increase in urban conflict
• This trend is particularly visible
in the Sahel, where violence is
driven Jihadist groups
12. Rural violence is driven by Jihadist insurgencies
Source: OECD (2023) based on ACLED and WorldPop data.
• Violent events involving select jihadist groups, 2007-21
• Jihadists are responsible for
most rural violence
• Most visible in Burkina Faso,
Mali and Niger
• A ruralizing trend explained by
the fact that Jihadist groups try
to control rural areas before
imposing blockades on cities
13. Future research
Source: OECD (2023) and RPCA.
• How do political security and food security interact in West Africa?