This document discusses the feasibility of electric buses for public transportation in Tampere, Finland. It analyzes the total cost of ownership of electric buses compared to diesel buses over 10 years. The analysis finds that with end-stop charging and current battery and infrastructure prices, electric buses would have a slightly lower total cost. It also discusses strategies for pilot programs and tenders to help reduce risks and costs for both cities and manufacturers as the electric bus technology matures.

1. Feasibility of electric
buses in public transport
Dr. Student Olli Vilppo
Tampere University of Technology (Finland)
olli.vilppo@tut.fi
Nordic Electric Bus Initiatives 2
12.5.2016

2. Buyers perspective
city of Tampere
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Research (TUT):
1. Independent study for city of Tampere, Summer 2014
2. Publication: Vilppo, Markkula, Feasibility of Electric Buses in Public Transport,
EVS28 Korea, May 2015
Consultation (Robustco):
1. Procurement preparation, Winter 2014-2015
2. Reading tenders submitted by manufacturers, Autumn 2015

3. How to proceed?
• Route length
• Speed/stops
• Schedule
• Number of vehicles
• Other (passenger
count,
heating/cooling)
 Vehicle and
charger requirements
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Bus line
parameters
Cost comparison
Purchase and
start project
• Bus price
• Charger price
• Infra building cost
• Operating costs
• Battery wear cost
 Compare the
options
• Procurement
• Contracts
• Permissions
• Infra building

4. Total cost of ownership (TCO)
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5. 5.5.2015 5
eBus system building blocks
Electric buses Battery
Charging
infrastructure
Energy
consumption
Investment
cost

6. Finding lowest cost
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End stop charging
Low energy
consumption
Small battery
Bus line
parameters
• 4 Vehicles
• 265 km/day
• End stop time 5-10 min
• 2 X 10 km
• Electricity
cost (€)
• Speed of
battery wear
(€)
• Time spend
at end stop
exceeding
normal
break (€€€)
• Weight and
space
decrease
• Less
invested
capital
• Battery
prices
dropping
 reasonable infra
cost & sufficient
space for passengers
inside bus

7. Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Buses 1629 91 91 91 91 91 309 91 91 91 91 91
Infra 224 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
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Table: Cost of 4 eBuses operating the line
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Buses 1204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204
Table: Cost of 4 diesel buses operating the line
Electric Bus Total Cost : 2.9 M€
Diesel Bus Total Cost : 3.1 M€

8. Procurement in Tampere
• PTA and city owned PTO joining forces
• Goal: Tender pointing based on TCO
calculations
• Market dialogue with manufacturers
Selecting between:
1. Open Tendering or Competitive Dialogue?
2. Fast charger and eBus: Separately or
together?
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9. What if new technology fails?
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High
Small
Sanctions for the
manufacturer (€)
Prices of eBuses and Charger (€)
Anticipated High
Probability density
function,
(Days out of
operation)

10. Risk reduction
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Manufacturers in
pilot cities
Tendering City
• Real data needed: Uptime of
fast chargers and eBuses
• Sharing reserve diesel
bus fleet
• 2 fast chargers on a line
• Cap for sanctions
Reduce buyers
distrust
Reduce cost of
failing equipment
for city
Lower prices/pcs
for city
Lower sanctions
for manufacturers

11. Summary
• End stop charging most economical
• Learning curve: prices will get lower and
reliability proven
• At this time: Assuming part of new technology
risk to the city  Probably lowers the TCO
• eBuses will be the cheapest solution in public
transport
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