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Seca seminar 2013 dn v - harald gundersen
- 2. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
LNG feasibility study
20-06-2013
Ship owners must respond to gradually stricter regulations to
stay in business, while dedicated ECAs are introduced
2
2010: Sulphur < 1.0%
2015: Sulphur < 0.1%
ECA SOX REQUIREMENTS
Build after 2016: NOX Tier III, -80%
ECA NOX REQUIREMENTS
2020 / 2025*: SOX < 0.5%
Build after 2011: NOX Tier II, -20%
* Date TBD pending 2018 review
– but 2020 will apply in EU waters
GLOBAL REQUIREMENTS
- 3. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
LNG feasibility study
20-06-2013
There are currently 74 confirmed LNG fuelled ship projects
globally
3
Updated 15.04.2013
Excluding LNG carriers and inland waterway vessels
- 4. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
LNG feasibility study
20-06-2013
LNG consumption in Norway from 2004 - 2017
4
Kilde: NOx-fondet
- 5. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
LNG feasibility study
20-06-2013
Status for the Norwegian LNG market
5
74%
19%
7%
Drivstoff solgt i Norge til
maritimt bruk 2011*
*Målt per energimengde
63%
13%
24%
Drivstoff forventet solgt i Norge
til maritimt bruk 2016*
MGO/MDO
HFO
LNG
Barents
Naturgass
5 %
Gasnor
50 %
Skangass
20 %
Skagerak
Naturgass
3 %
Naturgass Møre
3 %
AGA
3 %
Leverandør ikke
avklart
16 %
Suppliers of LNG in Norway from 2016
Kilde: NOx-fondet
- 6. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
LNG feasibility study
20-06-2013
6
LNG?
SCRUBBER?
MGO?
- 7. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
LNG feasibility study
20-06-2013
DNV has assessed the financial attractiveness and technical
risks of available ECA compliance measures for the case ship
7
The case ship
1. Switching to low sulphur fuel
2. Installing a scrubber system
3. Converting to Dual Fuel engines and
installing LNG tanks
Evaluated solutions
LOA: 130-150 m
Ship type: Container ship
Cargo capacity: 700-900 TEU
- 8. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
LNG feasibility study
20-06-2013
The total cost of DF conversion for the case ship is estimated
to $6,5 - 8,3 million
8
Cost estimate for DF configuration with 300 m3 LNG tank
Cost estimate for DF configuration with 600 m3 LNG tank
6.5
2.5
2.6
1.4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Main engine DF conversion
LNG tank + gas equipment
Yard cost
TOTAL COSTS
Costs [MUSD]
8.3
3.0
3.9
1.4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Main engine DF conversion
LNG tank + gas equipment
Yard cost
TOTAL COSTS
Costs [MUSD]
- 9. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
LNG feasibility study
20-06-2013
Cumulated costs for 55% ECA operation
9
-$5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
2015 2020 2025 2030
Cumulative Total Cost [MUSD] compared to baseline with HFO
Baseline (HFO)
Realcosts[2012MUSD]
ENGINE AND OPERATION
Emission compliance ECASOX
Time in ECA 55%
Installed power ca. 8 000 kW
Baseline HFO
FINANCIAL
Discount rate 8%
Investment decision Retrofit
Tax regime None
FUEL PRICE
HFO 2012 Europe level
MGO 2012 Europe level
LNG
HFO equivalent and
2012 European gas
+ distribution cost
- 10. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
LNG feasibility study
20-06-2013
Cumulated costs for 55% ECA operation
10
-$5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
2015 2020 2025 2030
Cumulative Total Cost [MUSD] compared to baseline with HFO
Fuel Switch
Baseline (HFO)
Realcosts[2012MUSD]
ENGINE AND OPERATION
Emission compliance ECASOX
Time in ECA 55%
Installed power ca. 8 000 kW
Baseline HFO
FINANCIAL
Discount rate 8%
Investment decision Retrofit
Tax regime None
FUEL PRICE
HFO 2012 Europe level
MGO 2012 Europe level
LNG
HFO equivalent and
2012 European gas
+ distribution cost
- 11. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
LNG feasibility study
20-06-2013
Cumulated costs for 55% ECA operation
11
-$5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
2015 2020 2025 2030
Cumulative Total Cost [MUSD] compared to baseline with HFO
Fuel Switch
Scrubber
Baseline (HFO)
Realcosts[2012MUSD]
ENGINE AND OPERATION
Emission compliance ECASOX
Time in ECA 55%
Installed power ca. 8 000 kW
Baseline HFO
FINANCIAL
Discount rate 8%
Investment decision Retrofit
Tax regime None
FUEL PRICE
HFO 2012 Europe level
MGO 2012 Europe level
LNG
HFO equivalent and
2012 European gas
+ distribution cost
- 12. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
LNG feasibility study
20-06-2013
Cumulated costs for 55% ECA operation
12
-$5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
2015 2020 2025 2030
Cumulative Total Cost [MUSD] compared to baseline with HFO
Fuel Switch
Scrubber
LNG High price w/600 m3 tank
Baseline (HFO)
Realcosts[2012MUSD]
LNG reference price w/600 m3 tank
ENGINE AND OPERATION
Emission compliance ECASOX
Time in ECA 55%
Installed power ca. 8 000 kW
Baseline HFO
FINANCIAL
Discount rate 8%
Investment decision Retrofit
Tax regime None
FUEL PRICE
HFO 2012 Europe level
MGO 2012 Europe level
LNG
HFO equivalent and
2012 European gas
+ distribution cost
- 13. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
LNG feasibility study
20-06-2013
Cumulated costs for 55% ECA operation
13
-$5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
2015 2020 2025 2030
Cumulative Total Cost [MUSD] compared to baseline with HFO
Fuel Switch
Scrubber
LNG High price w/600 m3 tank
Baseline (HFO)
Realcosts[2012MUSD]
LNG reference price w/600 m3 tank
LNG High price w/300 m3 tank
LNG reference price w/300 m3 tank
ENGINE AND OPERATION
Emission compliance ECASOX
Time in ECA 55%
Installed power ca. 8 000 kW
Baseline HFO
FINANCIAL
Discount rate 8%
Investment decision Retrofit
Tax regime None
FUEL PRICE
HFO 2012 Europe level
MGO 2012 Europe level
LNG
HFO equivalent and
2012 European gas
+ distribution cost
- 14. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
LNG feasibility study
20-06-2013
Cumulated costs for 100% ECA operation
14
-$5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
2015 2020 2025 2030
Cumulative Total Cost [MUSD] compared to baseline with HFO
Fuel Switch
Scrubber
LNG High price w/600 m3 tank
Baseline (HFO)
Realcosts[2012MUSD]
LNG reference price w/600 m3 tank
LNG High price w/300 m3 tank
LNG reference price w/300 m3 tank
ENGINE AND OPERATION
Emission compliance ECASOX
Time in ECA 100%
Installed power ca. 8 000 kW
Baseline HFO
FINANCIAL
Discount rate 8%
Investment decision Retrofit
Tax regime None
FUEL PRICE
HFO 2012 Europe level
MGO 2012 Europe level
LNG
HFO equivalent and
2012 European gas
+ distribution cost
- 15. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
LNG feasibility study
20-06-2013
Safeguarding life, property
and the environment
www.dnv.com
15