Presented by Mark Kuhn Principal at Ricardo Strategic Consulting at NAFA 2013

1. www.ricardo.com
© Ricardo plc 2013
Total Cost of Ownership: Economics of
Emerging Fleet Technologies
NAFA Conference
April 25, 2013
Kenworth HEV Bucket Truck
Mark Kuhn
Principal
Ricardo Strategic Consulting
Diesel
NG
EV
Diesel HEV
NG HEV

2. © Ricardo plc 2013 2RD.12/272601.5
Contents
 Scope of study
 Technologies/segments
 Analysis methodology
 Analysis results
– Diesel vs. NG, Diesel HEV, NG HEV, EV
 Conclusions / next steps

3. © Ricardo plc 2013 3RD.12/272601.5
Model Summary – Included Technologies and Segments
Six technologies and 22 technology vehicle segment
combinations were included in the model
CV Market: Based on Project Segments

4. © Ricardo plc 2013 4RD.12/272601.5
Representative vehicles were selected to characterize each
fleet segment and each technology
Baseline Diesel Vehicle Inputs – Representative Vehicles
Source: U-Haul, Kenworth of Florida, HT&T Truck Centre, Rock& Dirt, Peterbilt, Kenworth, Ford, NREL, Fleet Equipment Magazine, TRB, Calstart
Diesel HEV reference: HEV Express Cargo Van with Duramax 6.6L V8 Turbo Diesel with 260 hp, 525 lb.-ft. torque and B20-Diesel compatibility

5. © Ricardo plc 2013 5RD.12/272601.5
Vehicle TCO is modeled as the PV of the sum of both CAPEX
and OPEX for that vehicle within its first ownership period
Vehicle TCO
Maintenance
Cost
Model Summary – Model Structure
Vehicle OPEX
(PV over vehicle life)
Vehicle CAPEX
Vehicle
Purchase Cost
Per Vehicle
Infrastructure
Cost*
Fuel Cost
Engine
Transmission
Brakes
Emission Control
Installation
Permits
PV of
Maintenance
Fuel
Consumption
Fuel Price
Purchase
Price
Incentives
PV of Salvage
Proportional
Use of
Capacity
Total
Infrastructure
Cost
Vehicle Fuel
Consumption
Total Capacity
Fuel Economy
Idle Time
Driving Distance
+
+
x x
+
* Infrastructure costs assumed to be $0
for diesel

6. © Ricardo plc 2013 6RD.12/272601.5
Vehicle level TCO and Payback Periods vary with each vehicle
class and duty cycle combination: NG best for Class 3
vehicles; Diesel for Class 8 trucks
Model Summary – Vehicle TCO Output
TCO Summary Table
Source: Diesel Tab
2012 2015 2020 2012 2015 2020 2012 2015 2020 2012 2015 2020 2012 2015 2020
Per Vehicle OPEX $
Diesel 39,864 41,774 46,354 91,556 95,282 105,687 156,911 158,043 168,206 163,600 171,119 192,759 251,418 250,992 263,456
Natural Gas 29,765 33,342 36,625 69,274 77,762 85,333 115,637 127,720 134,810 131,327 148,501 165,576 186,266 199,232 205,072
Electric 12,480 12,938 14,601 58,524 57,645 59,488 3,932 4,064 4,593 2,208 2,275 2,559 6,446 6,726 7,719
HEV 37,067 37,252 39,284 80,351 76,143 80,092 137,160 130,611 131,202 51,730 76,143 1,409 231,651 224,555 226,267
HEV+NG 21,985 24,040 24,863 46,073 50,188 51,734 87,443 93,363 92,800 35,689 41,024 9,601 158,496 166,720 164,210
PHEV #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 100,377 94,849 89,253 68,391 65,673 64,579 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Net CAPEX - Vehicle*
Diesel 29,149 30,401 32,604 53,856 56,086 60,008 58,016 60,489 64,841 133,460 138,793 148,158 90,637 95,258 102,172
Natural Gas 31,550 32,528 34,329 72,020 73,016 75,167 82,766 82,900 83,836 142,523 145,398 151,065 160,924 161,750 151,703
Electric 108,688 105,272 82,790 98,527 104,551 92,622 62,572 64,947 69,142 116,268 120,752 128,652 90,936 94,428 100,583
HEV 48,149 50,032 49,152 76,756 79,348 79,821 82,916 88,544 89,123 137,367 79,348 151,735 156,800 164,751 170,767
HEV+NG 52,924 54,485 53,127 93,056 94,238 92,641 109,666 112,896 109,963 159,267 162,367 168,543 213,537 217,478 205,636
PHEV 42,749 45,163 45,030 71,796 74,896 76,088 146,016 135,285 122,246 155,360 157,481 162,595 102,577 111,068 115,252
CAPEX - Per Vehicle Infrastructure
Diesel - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Natural Gas - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Electric 1,850 1,906 2,003 1,850 1,906 2,003 - - - - - - - - -
HEV - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HEV+NG - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
PHEV - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
TCO (dollars for year of purchase)
Diesel 69,013 72,175 78,958 145,412 151,368 165,695 214,927 218,531 233,047 297,060 309,913 340,918 342,054 346,251 365,629
Natural Gas 61,315 65,870 70,954 141,294 150,778 160,500 198,403 210,620 218,646 273,849 293,899 316,641 347,189 360,982 356,775
Electric 123,017 120,116 99,394 158,901 164,102 154,113 66,504 69,011 73,735 118,477 123,028 131,211 97,382 101,153 108,301
HEV 85,216 87,284 88,436 157,107 155,491 159,913 220,077 219,155 220,325 189,097 155,491 153,144 388,451 389,306 397,034
HEV+NG 74,910 78,526 77,990 139,129 144,425 144,375 197,109 206,259 202,764 194,956 203,391 178,144 372,033 384,197 369,847
PHEV #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 246,393 230,134 211,499 223,751 223,154 227,175 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Payback Period (Excluding Infrastructure)
Diesel - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Natural Gas 1 1 <1 9 11 7 5 7 5 2 2 1 5 6 4
Electric 23 19 10 8 9 5 <1 <1 <1 <1 <1 <1 <1 <1 <1
HEV 14 12 9 12 9 7 8 7 5 <1 <1 <1 8 7 6
HEV+NG 7 7 5 10 10 6 7 9 6 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 6 6 4
PHEV >30 >30 >30 >30 >30 >30 15 10 5 2 2 1 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Delivery Delivery Delivery Work Truck Intercity Truck
Class 3 Class 4-6 Class 7-8 Class 6 Class 8
TCO Summary
Notes:
1. CAPEX weighted based on proportion of total capacity used by an
individual vehicle. For example if a truck used 10DGE /year of an
available 100 DGE infrastructure that cost $100, then the per
vehicle infrastructure CAPEX for that truck would be $10
2. The payback period listed in this table excludes infrastructure and
battery replacements. Other payback periods including both of
these costs can be found at the bottom of the individual
Technology Worksheets
3. All costs are in present value $ for the year stated at the column
head
Class 3
Delivery
Class 8
Intercity
TCO:
Lowest
NG lowest,
followed by
diesel and
NG+HEV
Diesel, followed
by NG HEV+NG
& HEV
Payback
Period:
Lowest
NG (~ 1 year)
followed by
HEV+NG (5-7
years), and
HEV (9-14
years)
NG (4-6 yrs),
followed by
HEV+NG (4-6
yrs) and HEV
(6-8 yrs)
OPEX:
Lowest
EV HEV+NG
CAPEX:
Lowest
Diesel Diesel
= Best in vehicle class/duty cycle

7. © Ricardo plc 2013 7RD.12/272601.5
69
145
215
297
342
61
141
198
273
347
123
159
85
157
220
388
75
139
197
372
246
223
Diesel best: Class 8; NG best: Class 3 delivery; NG+HEV best:
Class 4-6 & 7-8 delivery; PHEV best: Class 6 work truck
TCO by Segment and Technology
Source: Ricardo Fleet TCO Model
TCO Model Output – Segment, Technology and Year Comparison
Diesel Natural Gas Electric Vehicle
72
151
218
310
346
66
151
211
293
361
120
164
87
155
219
389
78
144
206
384
230 223
79
166
233
340
365
71
161
219
317
356
99
154
88
160
220
397
79
144
202
369
215 227
Class 3 Delivery Class 4-6
Delivery
Class 7-8
Delivery
Class 6 Work
Truck
Class 8 Intercity
2012
2015
2020
Key Takeaways
 Class 3: NG and diesel are
lowest TCO.
– NG +HEV is slightly higher than
diesel vehicle
– EV is consistently the highest
driven by large CAPEX.
 Relatively small range for
TCO except for Class 6 work
truck
– Driven by high initial vehicle price
(relatively smaller percent
change for the addition of new
technologies)
– Majority idle fuel usage
– Longest period of ownership
 Class 8 Intercity has very low
relative variation in TCO
– Driven by short ownership period
assumption
– Mid range annual mileage
assumption
$1,000s$1,000s$1,000s
6 year TCO
12 year TCO 12 year TCO 15 year TCO
5 year TCO
HEV NG-HEV PHEV
Diesel
NaturalGas
NaturalGas
NG-HEV
PHEV
NaturalGas
NG-HEV
NG-HEV
PHEV
NG
NaturalGas
NG-HEV
NG-HEV
PHEV
Diesel
Best-in-sector shown in green frame

8. © Ricardo plc 2013 8RD.12/272601.5
Class 3: For all but diesel, CAPEX exceeds OPEX. For highest
cost vehicles, CAPEX is 1.5-9X higher than OPEX
Class 3 Delivery TCO Net CAPEX and OPEX Contributors
29,149 31,550
108,688
48,149
52,924
30,400 32,528
119,860
50,030
54,485
32,604 34,328
108,152
49,152 53,127
1,850
1,906
2,003
39,134
27,581
12,480
31,067 21,985
55,220
30,533
12,938
37,252
24,040
61,011
33,420
14,601
39,294
24,863
68,283
59,131
123,018
79,216
74,909
85,620
63,061
134,704
87,282
78,525
93,615
67,748
124,756
88,446
77,990
Diesel Natural
Gas
Electric HEV NG+HEV Diesel Natural
Gas
Electric HEV NG+HEV Diesel Natural
Gas
Electric HEV NG+HEV
Source: Ricardo Fleet TCO Model
Example TCO Model Output – Class 3 Delivery
Diesel Vehicle Net CAPEX
Diesel OPEX
CNG Vehicle Net CAPEX
CNG OPEX
EV Vehicle Net CAPEX
EV OPEX
EV Infrastructure CAPEX
2012 2015 2020
Key Takeaways
 Lowest OPEX by far is with
EV, but highest CAPEX
 Lowest OPEX+CAPEX is
CNG, followed by diesel
 Shorter ownership periods
(6 years vs. 12-15 for other
classes) lead to higher %
contribution of Net CAPEX
to overall TCO.
 Start-stop drive cycle
favors electric vehicles in
operating costs, but the
high initial price
significantly affects the
TCO
HEV Vehicle Net CAPEX
HEV OPEX
NG+HEV Vehicle Net CAPEX
NG+HEV OPEX
OPEX
CAPEX

9. © Ricardo plc 2013 9RD.12/272601.5
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
$75,000
$80,000
$85,000
$90,000
$95,000
$100,000
2012 2015 2020
CNG - Public Station CNG - Private Station
CNG - In house 50 vehicles CNG - In house 100 vehicles
CNG - In house 300 vehicles Nominal Diesel
High Diesel Low Diesel
Small fleets see little financial benefit from installing their own
CNG infrastructure but may have few other options available
Class 3 Delivery TCO: Multiple Pricing Cases
TCO Comparison – Sensitivity to AssumptionsClass3DeliveryVehicleTCO
Key Takeaways
 Use of private fueling stations
leads to savings over public
fueling stations
 Small and medium fleets (100
vehicle or less) see no financial
benefit from installing on-site
infrastructure
 Fleets >300 vehicles will justify
infrastructure investment even
with low diesel fuel costs
 50 vehicle fleets can only justify
infrastructure investment if
diesel fuel cost is high
 The financial benefit of natural
gas class 3 delivery vehicles
diminishes in areas where there
is a lack of public and private
refueling infrastructure
Assumptions:
•Phoenix Urban Drive Cycle
•No Natural Gas Incentives
•No additional maintenance facility upgrades
•Land costs not included in infrastructure costs
Source: Ricardo Fleet TCO Model
High Diesel
$6.43/gal
Nominal Diesel
$4.67/gal
Low Diesel
$2.94/gal
50vehicles
100vehicles
300vehicles
50vehicles
100vehicles
300vehicles
50vehicles
100vehicles
300vehicles
High Diesel
$4.37/gal
Nominal Diesel
$3.90/gal
Low Diesel
$3.01/gal

10. © Ricardo plc 2013 10RD.12/272601.5
Class 8: OPEX >> CAPEX for diesel, OPEX is smaller % of total
costs for LNG. LNG expected to outperform diesel in out years
as diesel $ continues to rise, and technology cost matures
2 scenarios for LNG Class 8 Intercity are compared to a diesel baseline
$90,637
$135,924
$160,924
$95,258
$137,749
$161,750
$102,172
$132,132
$151,703
$251,418
$146,136
$191,808
$250,992
$140,978
$183,785
$263,456
$133,728
$172,153
$342,055
$282,060
$352,732
$346,250
$278,727
$345,535
$365,628
$265,860
$323,856
Diesel NG Case1 NG Case2 Diesel NG Case1 NG Case2 Diesel NG Case1 NG Case2
Source: Ricardo Fleet TCO Model
Example TCO Model Output – Sensitivity to Assumptions
Diesel Vehicle Net CAPEX Diesel OPEX LNG Vehicle Net CAPEX LNG OPEX
2012 2015 2020
Case Descriptions / Key
Takeaways
 Natural Gas Case 1:
– In-house fuel cost
– 120 DGE tank (~300 mile
range)
 Natural Gas Case 2:
– Public Pump fuel Price
– 240 DGE tank (~600 mile
range)
 2020 Cost advantage of NG
Case #1 due to lower pump
price than in-house price,
(~$35K) and lower cost of
smaller fuel tank (~$25K)
 Downward cost trend of LNG
due to increasing forecast of
diesel price, and decreasing
cost of LNG technology as
technology matures and
incremental cost penalty
decreases
OPEX
CAPEX

11. © Ricardo plc 2013 11RD.12/272601.5
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
2012 2015 2020
LNG - Public Station LNG - Private Station
LNG - In house 50 vehicles LNG - In house 100 vehicles
LNG - In house 300 vehicles Nominal Diesel
High Diesel Low Diesel
Sensitivity of infrastructure: high fuel consumption of Class 8
Intercity trucks makes on-site infrastructure more appealing
Class 8 Intercity TCO: LNG fueling and infrastructure case evaluation
Example TCO Model Output – Sensitivity to AssumptionsClass8IntercityVehicleTCO
Key Takeaways
 High fuel consumption of Class
8 Intercity trucks makes on-site
infrastructure more appealing
than public or private fueling for
fleets as small as 50 trucks
 Dependant on routes and
distances travelled, this may
only be true if a single hub in
the shipping network has at
least 50 vehicles:
– This scenario only includes
one filling station
– Intercity trucks may not be
able to return to that station
at the end of the day
Additional Assumptions:
•No Natural Gas Incentives
•No additional maintenance facility upgrades
•Land costs not included in infrastructure costs
•One LNG station per fleet
•LNG transported 300 miles or less
Source: Ricardo Fleet TCO Model
High Diesel
$6.43/gal
Nominal Diesel
$4.67/gal
Low Diesel
$2.94/gal
High Diesel
$4.37/gal
Nominal Diesel
$3.90/gal
Low Diesel
$3.01/gal
50vehicles
100vehicles
300vehicles
50vehicles
100vehicles
300vehicles
50vehicles
100vehicles
300vehicles

12. © Ricardo plc 2013 12RD.12/272601.5
Operating cost variables are effected by brake life, battery life,
oil change intervals, filter replacements and oil cost
Key observations:
1. Hybrid systems significantly reduce brake replacement frequency, significantly reducing maintenance costs for high
mileage duty cycles. HEV brake maintenance savings more than offsets battery replacement costs for vehicles kept
longer than the estimated 8 year battery life
2. NG: shorter oil change intervals, tank inspections, and more frequent filter replacements lead to slightly higher
maintenance costs for natural gas vehicles. SI engines also require that natural gas engine oil be used.
3. NG HEV: maintenance costs offer significant reductions over conventional diesel vehicles
Source: Peterbilt Hybrid System Maintenance Manual, NREL/TP-5400-53503, NREL Merit Review - Coca Cola, NREL/TP-540-44314, NREL/CR-540-42534
OPEX: Maintenance
Notes: 1. This study does not take into account increased diagnostic time involved in introducing a new technology into your shop. In several NREL hybrid fleet studies,
the troubleshooting of problems with HEV systems offset maintenance cost advantages.
2. Battery replacement PV is used for all model calculations. Annualized battery replacement is used only for illustrative comparisons between baseline and HEV maintenance.
3. New technology troubleshooting and low volume part scarcity potential with this technology are not considered in the model
4. Additional diagnostic costs associated with the repairs to new technologies are not included
Class 3 Class 4-6 Class 7-8 Class 6 Class 8
Delivery Delivery Delivery Work Truck Intercity Truck
HEV Maintenance and Overhead 693$ 1,234$ 854$ #VALUE! 2,598$
HEV Brake Maintenance 161$ 250$ 282$ -$ 589$
HEV Other Maintenance and Overhead 533$ 743$ 494$ #VALUE! 2,010$
HEV Battery Replacement (annualized) -$ 241$ 79$ #VALUE! -$
HEV Battery Replacement (PV) -$ 2,896$ 945$ #VALUE! -$
Diesel Maintenance and Overhead 1,255$ 1,877$ 1,949$ 3,425$ 4,360$
Diesel Brake Maintenance 804$ 1,248$ 1,472$ 2,944$ 2,944$
Diesel Other Maintenance and Overhead 451$ 629$ 477$ 481$ 1,416$
Class 3 Class 4-6 Class 7-8 Class 6 Class 8
Delivery Delivery Delivery Work Truck Intercity Truck
Natural Gas Maintenance and Overhead 1,748$ 2,155$ 2,606$ 3,653$ 5,831$
Diesel Maintenance and Overhead 1,500$ 1,877$ 2,181$ 3,425$ 4,360$
Class 3 Class 4-6 Class 7-8 Class 6 Class 8
Delivery Delivery Delivery Work Truck Intercity Truck
NG-HEV Maintenance and Overhead 779$ 1,318$ 1,423$ -$ 2,532$
Baseline Diesel Maintenance and Overhead 1,255$ 1,877$ 1,949$ 3,425$ 4,360$

13. © Ricardo plc 2013 13RD.12/272601.5
Conclusions
 Commercial vehicles were modeled with 6 powertrain technology configurations, including diesel as the
baseline powertrain, and 22 combinations of powertrain & vehicle/duty cycle
 TCO:
– TCO can be reduced by 14% or increase by as much as 80% depending on technology, duty cycle,
infrastructure and fuel costs
– Operating cost variation is effected by brake life, battery life, oil change intervals, filter replacements
and oil cost
 Payback period:
– Payback period for introducing new technology ranges from 1 to 23 years
• 1 year: Class 3 delivery NG, and Class 6 work truck NG and PHEV
• 23 years: Class 3 delivery EV, driven by CAPEX: battery pack, motor and power electronics,
charging infrastructure and low volumes associated with new technology
– Payback period is sensitive to infrastructure requirements paced by fleet size, the rate of diesel fuel
cost increase and desired vehicle range (battery or tank size)
 Technology choice for lowest TCO:
– Diesel best: Class 8
– NG best: Class 3 delivery
 Next steps: expand to more technologies, and more applications such as off highway, agriculture,
mining, marine, power generation…
– NG+HEV best: Class 4-6 delivery & 7-8 delivery
– PHEV best: Class 6 work truck

14. www.ricardo.com
© Ricardo plc 2013
Total Cost of Ownership: Economics of
Emerging Fleet Technologies
Thank you!
Links: American Gas Association Natural Gas Fleet Savings Calculator
http://www.aga.org/our-issues/natural-gas-vehicles/Pages/Natural-Gas-Fleet-Savings-Calculator.aspx
Or Google: Ricardo Fleet Savings Calculator
Ricardo Strategic Consulting•Ricardo Inc.
Detroit Technology Campus, 40000 Ricardo Drive
Van Buren Twp., Michigan 48111 USA
Christopher Yee
Manager
Telephone: +1 734.306.5055
Facsimile: +1 734.397.6677
louis.bailoni@ricardo.com
Ricardo Strategic Consulting•Ricardo Inc.
Detroit Technology Campus, 40000 Ricardo Drive
Van Buren Twp., Michigan 48111 USA
Mark S. Kuhn, P.E.
Principal
Mark.kuhn@ricardo.com
Mobile: +1 248 819 5744
Recption: +1 734 397 6666
Facsimile: +1 734 397 6677
www.ricardo.com