Koen Broess - Impact - Future Grids

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Koen Broess
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Energy storage & conversie – impact op het net

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Scenario’s in Nederland
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▪ Share of variable RES grows
rapidly with fluctuating
generation patterns
▪ Extreme variability in
week/month range:
“Dunkelflaute”
▪ High need for flexibility of the
energy system

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Key parameter tables
storage and conversion technologies
Input for the scenario analysis for the climate agreement, so no
scenario’s are taken into account
Cost of electricity is not taken into account; for complete LCOE
analysis, this is essential
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Drie categorieën van flexibiliteitsvraag
VERTROUWELIJK

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Key parameters: storage technologies (power-to-power)
Main category Subcategory Application
Reference system
size
Maximum market size in NL
CAPEX* (EUR/kWh)
PDT (years)
Fixed OPEX*
(% of CAPEX
per year)
Round-trip
efficiency
(%)
Expected
lifetime
(years)
GW GWh
MW MWh 2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030
MECHANICAL
STORAGE
Pumped hydro
(Valmeer)
B 1,300 21,600 0 1.3 0 20 N/A 120 10 1.2 72 50
Pumped hydro
(Valmeer) + tidal
B 1,450 21,600 0 1.5 0 20 N/A 150 10 1.2 72 50
O-pac B 1,400 8,000 0 1.4 0 8 N/A 225 7 1.1 75 50
CAES B 170 1,000 0.17 0.34 1 2 330 220 3-4 5 42-58 20
LAES B 50 250 0.25 2.5 1 10 460 280 2-3 2 60-75 20
ELECTROCHEMICAL
STORAGE
Li-ion
(stationary systems)
A 50 50 0.5 1.3 0.5 1.3 300 150 1-1.5 1.5 90 20
B 5 20 0.75 1 1.5 2 300 150 1-1.5 1.5 90 15
Li-ion (EV)
A 0.01 0.02 0 3 0 3 450 0 0-0.5 0 90 15
B 0.01 0.02 0 3 0 3 450 0 0-0.5 0 90 15
Redox flow B 5 20 0 1 0 2 650 300 2 2 67-70 20
CHEMICAL STORAGE
Hydrogen
B 1,078 200,000 0 2 0 400 1.85 0.7 3-5 5 35 15
C 5,390 1,000,000 0 6 0 1,100 1.6 0.65 3-5 5 35 15
SNG**
B 3,168 580,000 0 3 0 550 4 2.5 3-5 5 25 15
C 15,840 2,743,000 0 15 0 2,500 3.5 2 3-5 5 25 15
Metal fuel C 1 - - 1 - - - - 5 - 23 30
9 * Cost of electricity is not taken into account; for complete LCOE analysis, this is essential
** Other secondary products from hydrogen can also be made like ammonia, methanol, formic acid etc

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Qualitative market share projections: power-to-power*
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Predicted market
share
Ancillary services
Balancing supply and
demand
Large scale/
Dunkelflaute
2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030
Pumped hydro (Valmeer) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pumped hydro (Valmeer)
+ tidal
N/A N/A N/A N/A
O-PAC N/A N/A N/A N/A
CAES N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAES N/A N/A N/A N/A
Li-ion
(stationary systems)
N/A N/A
Li-ion (EV) N/A N/A
Redox flow N/A N/A
Hydrogen N/A N/A N/A
SNG N/A N/A N/A
Metal fuels N/A N/A N/A
% of market
share of
selected
application
N/A
<5
5-30
30-100
* DNV GL predictions based on technology maturity, cost, and applicability

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https://www.ad.nl/auto/in-2030-is-elke-nieuwe-vw-elektrisch~a8d495ab/

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Photo: Wikipedia/Nissangeniss

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Qualitative market share projections: X-to-power*
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Predicted market
share
Ancillary services
Balancing supply and
demand
Large scale/
Dunkelflaute
2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030
Biogas** N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
% of market
share of
selected
application
N/A
<5
5-30
30-100
* DNV GL predictions based on technology maturity, cost, and applicability
**Biomass generation is not taken into account in this study, as it is seen as generation and not
storage

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Qualitative market share projections: power-to-product / power-to-heat*
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Predicted market
share
Ancillary services
Balancing supply and
demand
2020 2030 2020 2030
ATES N/A N/A
BTES N/A N/A
TTES N/A N/A
PTES N/A N/A
Phase Change Materials N/A N/A
Phase Change Materials -
Ice buffer
N/A N/A
Industrial (e-boilers)
Industrial processes
Residential (e-boiler or
heat pump with buffer)
N/A N/A
Hydrogen N/A N/A
SNG N/A N/A
Metal fuel N/A N/A N/A
Li-ion EV
% of market
share of
selected
application
N/A
<5
5-30
30-100
* DNV GL predictions based on technology maturity, cost, and applicability

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Conclusies
▪ Opslag (incl. vraagsturing) zal naast interconnectie en regelbaar vermogen in 2030 een
belangrijke rol gaan spelen in het accommoderen van weer- en seizoenspatronen in de
elektriciteitsvoorziening
▪ De inzet van smart charging voor elektrische voertuigen is een no-regret optie voor flexibiliteit.
Om het volledige potentieel te ontsluiten moeten techniek, netwerk, marktmodellen en wet- en
regelgeving wel tijdig gereed zijn. V2G is een optie die na 2025 interessant kan worden
▪ Om het (aanzienlijke) potentieel van industriële power-2-heat te ontsluiten, moet de combinatie
van verbruikskosten van elektriciteit en netwerkkosten lager zijn dan die van het alternatief
▪ De Power-2-X lange termijn opties kunnen in 2030 (nog) slechts een beperkt deel invullen van de
huidige capaciteit van aardgaspiekvermogen in NL.
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Koen Broess
Koen.broess@dnvgl.com
+31 646713810