The document examines crude oil price benchmarking methods used in Nigeria's budgeting process. It finds that the Moving Average Method currently used has limitations in predicting short-term oil price dynamics. The study tests alternative forecasting models and finds that the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model provides the best forecasts of Nigeria's crude oil price benchmarks. Based on the ARIMA model, the study estimates that $80 could be an appropriate crude oil price benchmark for Nigeria's 2013 fiscal year budget. The document recommends that Nigeria's oil price benchmarks be based on fundamentals of the crude oil market to improve policy predictability and macroeconomic stability.
The document analyzes the dynamic relationship between global oil prices and the exchange rate of the Eswatini currency (SZL) against the US dollar using daily data from 2005 to 2018. It finds a unidirectional causal relationship from global oil prices to the SZL/USD exchange rate using the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test, indicating that global crude oil prices influence Eswatini's nominal exchange rate. The study recommends that Eswatini's exchange rate policy consider global oil price movements to avoid misalignment of its currency.
This study investigated the relationship between premium exchange rate and output growth in
African oil producing countries between 1995 to 2018 using panel Vector Error Correction as estimation
technique Data for the study were sourced from World Bank Development indicator data base, IMF online data
base and Central Banks of the selected countries
An important question amongst economists is: what is the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization on the economies of member countries? Using a comparative analysis, econometric approach, and data from Saudi Arabia, this study proves that trade patterns have changed in some areas and remained unchanged in others as a result of accession to the WTO. The study proves that accession to the WTO has resulted in a remarkable increase in trade share and that accession to the WTO has a positive and significant effect on economic activity.
This is a demo version of Williams & Marshall Strategy's report on the Global xylenes market. The report presents a strategic analysis of the xylenes market in the world and a forecast for its development in the medium term. It provides a comprehensive overview of the market, its dynamics, structure, characteristics, main players, growth and demand drivers, etc. This is the most detailed and comprehensive report about the Global xylenes market currently available!
This document summarizes an article that examines the impact of crude oil prices on the global economy. It discusses how oil prices are determined by supply and demand factors. Recently, oil prices have been affected by additional factors like increased oil production in the United States. The document outlines objectives to analyze the effects of oil price fluctuations on different economies and sectors. It also reviews previous literature on the relationship between oil prices, inflation, and prices of other commodities like gold. Finally, it lists the top 10 most indebted oil companies globally and their total debt amounts, with Petrobras having the highest debt of $120.6 billion.
Know more about economic and business developments in Oman and the region.
GCC stocks mixed as oil fails to provide catalyst
Improving trade flows point to Oman’s hub potential
LNG, Shift in world energy targets raises LNG prospects
Oman continues to boost national workforce
Consolidation puts Oman Oil Company in better position after oil price drop
Technologies for the ultimate home theatre experience
RAK’s Al Wadi Desert beckons tranquility
News
The document summarizes a study examining the time-varying factors influencing oil prices from 1995 to 2008. A state space regression model is used to model crude oil prices based on explanatory variables like inventory levels, speculative investment, refinery utilization, and futures market structure. The beta coefficients relating these variables to price are modeled as random walk processes. Results show oil prices have become more sensitive to speculative investment relative to fundamentals over time. A VECM analysis also finds speculative inflows have been less driven by fundamentals since 2004, indicating increasing financialization of oil markets.
This document analyzes the impact of declining oil prices on the financial performance of companies listed on the Muscat Securities Market in Oman from 2012 to 2015. It finds that while company revenue continued to grow even as oil prices fell, profitability and earnings per share were negatively affected. A statistical analysis shows a significant negative correlation between falling oil prices and decreased profitability and EPS. However, the correlation between oil prices and total revenue was not found to be significant. So in summary, declining oil prices appear to have reduced the profit margins and earnings of Omani companies, though their total revenues continued to increase during the period studied.
The document analyzes the dynamic relationship between global oil prices and the exchange rate of the Eswatini currency (SZL) against the US dollar using daily data from 2005 to 2018. It finds a unidirectional causal relationship from global oil prices to the SZL/USD exchange rate using the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test, indicating that global crude oil prices influence Eswatini's nominal exchange rate. The study recommends that Eswatini's exchange rate policy consider global oil price movements to avoid misalignment of its currency.
This study investigated the relationship between premium exchange rate and output growth in
African oil producing countries between 1995 to 2018 using panel Vector Error Correction as estimation
technique Data for the study were sourced from World Bank Development indicator data base, IMF online data
base and Central Banks of the selected countries
An important question amongst economists is: what is the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization on the economies of member countries? Using a comparative analysis, econometric approach, and data from Saudi Arabia, this study proves that trade patterns have changed in some areas and remained unchanged in others as a result of accession to the WTO. The study proves that accession to the WTO has resulted in a remarkable increase in trade share and that accession to the WTO has a positive and significant effect on economic activity.
This is a demo version of Williams & Marshall Strategy's report on the Global xylenes market. The report presents a strategic analysis of the xylenes market in the world and a forecast for its development in the medium term. It provides a comprehensive overview of the market, its dynamics, structure, characteristics, main players, growth and demand drivers, etc. This is the most detailed and comprehensive report about the Global xylenes market currently available!
This document summarizes an article that examines the impact of crude oil prices on the global economy. It discusses how oil prices are determined by supply and demand factors. Recently, oil prices have been affected by additional factors like increased oil production in the United States. The document outlines objectives to analyze the effects of oil price fluctuations on different economies and sectors. It also reviews previous literature on the relationship between oil prices, inflation, and prices of other commodities like gold. Finally, it lists the top 10 most indebted oil companies globally and their total debt amounts, with Petrobras having the highest debt of $120.6 billion.
Know more about economic and business developments in Oman and the region.
GCC stocks mixed as oil fails to provide catalyst
Improving trade flows point to Oman’s hub potential
LNG, Shift in world energy targets raises LNG prospects
Oman continues to boost national workforce
Consolidation puts Oman Oil Company in better position after oil price drop
Technologies for the ultimate home theatre experience
RAK’s Al Wadi Desert beckons tranquility
News
The document summarizes a study examining the time-varying factors influencing oil prices from 1995 to 2008. A state space regression model is used to model crude oil prices based on explanatory variables like inventory levels, speculative investment, refinery utilization, and futures market structure. The beta coefficients relating these variables to price are modeled as random walk processes. Results show oil prices have become more sensitive to speculative investment relative to fundamentals over time. A VECM analysis also finds speculative inflows have been less driven by fundamentals since 2004, indicating increasing financialization of oil markets.
This document analyzes the impact of declining oil prices on the financial performance of companies listed on the Muscat Securities Market in Oman from 2012 to 2015. It finds that while company revenue continued to grow even as oil prices fell, profitability and earnings per share were negatively affected. A statistical analysis shows a significant negative correlation between falling oil prices and decreased profitability and EPS. However, the correlation between oil prices and total revenue was not found to be significant. So in summary, declining oil prices appear to have reduced the profit margins and earnings of Omani companies, though their total revenues continued to increase during the period studied.
This is a demo version of Williams & Marshall Strategy's report on the Global toluene market. The report presents a strategic analysis of the toluene market in the world and a forecast for its development in the medium term. It provides a comprehensive overview of the market, its dynamics, structure, characteristics, main players, growth and demand drivers, etc. This is the most detailed and comprehensive report about the Global toluene market currently available!
Effecto exchange rate fluctuations on manufacturing sector in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigeria's manufacturing sector from 1985 to 2010. It uses variables like manufacturing GDP, foreign investment, employment, and exchange rates. The study found that exchange rates and foreign investment have a positive impact on manufacturing GDP. It recommends that the government promote export diversification, restrict imports of goods also made in Nigeria, and maintain a stable exchange rate to improve the manufacturing sector performance. The paper provides context on Nigeria's fluctuating exchange rates over time and reviews several other studies that also found exchange rates influence economic growth and agricultural exports.
This document provides a summary of a report on the global styrene market. The report analyzes the state of the styrene market worldwide, including production volumes, imports, exports and consumption. It also forecasts market development in the next five years. The report covers 133 countries and all major global regions. It profiles the largest producers of styrene and their production capacities. The methodology used to create the report includes analysis of official data, interviews with industry experts, secondary research and the company's own methodology.
From the Desk of the CEO.
The heat is on. While many of us have been vacationing in cooler climes, the Sensex has kept itself rather busy, gaining another 4% during the month of May. The upmove has come largely on the back of better-than-expected corporate results and expectations of a good monsoon. Markets are also taking cognisance of various indicators like improved auto sales, higher steel and cement offtake, public infrastructure spending, etc. which are positive signs of an imminent economic recovery.
Crude prices have silently crept up and are currently hovering at the $50 level, almost double from the January lows. So despite the adverse implications of higher crude prices on the Indian economy, there seems to be some positive correlation between crude prices and the equity markets. Though this pattern may not have always played out in the last few decades, the first few months of 2016 certainly seem to indicate so. The main reason for this is the significantly high weightage that the Energy sector has in indices the world over. When oil plummeted to sub-$30 levels, it seriously impacted the profitability of some of the world’s biggest corporations, not only causing their stock prices to fall sharply, but also impacting the broader markets in general. It also indicated a global recessionary trend, thus affecting investor sentiment and causing them to become nervous and risk-averse. The bounce back in crude has brought the price to a level that makes it profitable for companies to drill, creating a sense of well-being for both, the Energy sector as well as the countries whose economies are dependent solely on oil. Where crude prices go from here remains to be seen.
After several quarters of benign inflation, the WPI rose to 0.34% while retail inflation soared to 5.39% in April 2016. This, coupled with higher oil prices would make it difficult for Governor Rajan to announce a rate cut at the next RBI policy meeting on 7th June. Across the globe however, Janet Yellen’s comments on improving economic data in the US has the markets believing that a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve is a high possibility during its next meeting in mid-June. The outcome of Britain’s referendum on Brexit is also an event that we will be closely watching.
With markets factoring in all the good news for now, conventional logic says that short term investors need to be cautious. But when the stock market catches momentum, all negative predictions may be proven wrong.
There are of course, many more bulls than bears when it comes to a 1 year plus view. Long term investors may continue their investments and look to buy into any dips.
Wish all of you a happy monsoon season.
The QE Index gained 4.51% over the week driven by improved regional market performance. Trading value and volume increased 15.74% and 18.03% respectively. Foreign investors remained net sellers while local institutions were net sellers and non-Qatari individuals were net buyers. Regional indices also rose with Dubai gaining the most at 8.62% due to reduced geopolitical tensions. The Qatari population is expected to grow significantly this year due to infrastructure investment leading to job creation.
- The Indian markets rose over the past week to 6-month highs as the Nifty crossed 8000 levels, driven by encouraging corporate results and expectations of a better monsoon.
- Upcoming events like the RBI policy meeting and UK referendum on EU membership could impact markets and currencies globally.
- Domestically, India aims for 7.6% GDP growth in FY17 while remaining a top steel importer globally.
media briefing to release the report “State of the Bangladesh Economy in FY2015 and the Closure of Sixth Five Year Plan,” prepared as part of CPD’s Independent Review of Bangladesh’s Development (IRBD) programme. The event was held at CIRDAP Auditorium, Dhaka on Monday, 1 June 2015.
The Indian rupee has fallen sharply against the US dollar in recent months, dropping 23% since the start of 2012 and hitting a record low. The rupee slide is due to India's large and growing trade deficit, which ballooned to $185 billion in 2011-12 as imports increased faster than exports. Measures taken by the government and the Reserve Bank of India to support the rupee have been ineffective, as the underlying issues of a weak export sector and high oil import bill remain unaddressed. With foreign capital also leaving the country, further declines in the rupee's value appear difficult to prevent in the near term.
The Qatar Stock Exchange Index declined 3.6% during the week, closing at 11,862.51 points. Industries Qatar (IQCD) was the worst performing stock, declining 17.61% and was the biggest contributor to the weekly index decline. Trading value increased 14.9% during the week to QR2.9 billion, led by the Industrials sector. Foreign institutions remained net sellers during the week with net sales of QR133.3 million.
- The Qatar Exchange Index declined 3.31% for the week to close at 13,874.97 points, as market capitalization decreased 3.1% to QR739.2 billion.
- Trading value and volume both decreased from the prior week, falling 18% and 17.3% respectively. The real estate sector accounted for the largest trading volume and value.
- Foreign and Qatari institutions were net sellers during the week, while foreign and Qatari retail investors were net buyers.
The document provides an overview of domestic and global economic news from May 16-20, 2016. Some key points:
- India's wholesale price index turned positive after 17 months, suggesting rising pricing power and potential inflation pressures.
- Crude oil and natural gas production in India fell in April compared to the previous year.
- The US dollar strengthened against the yen and euro zone business growth was stable but below recent highs.
- China will further reform business registration procedures to reduce costs and support economic restructuring.
- Most Indian indices declined over the week, with Sensex falling 1.37%, while crude oil prices rose slightly and the rupee depreciated against the US dollar.
QNBFS Weekly Market Report April 19, 2018QNB Group
- The Qatar Stock Exchange Index increased 3.12% over the week to close at 9,196.62, with market capitalization up 4.1% to QR514 billion.
- QNB Group, Barwa Real Estate Co., and Qatar Islamic Bank were the top contributors to index gains, while Industries Qatar subtracted from the index.
- Foreign institutions remained net buyers at QR192.1 million, while Qatari institutions remained net sellers at QR156.3 million.
The document discusses India's balance of payments position. Some key points:
1) India's current account deficit declined sharply in 2013-14 to $32.4 billion from a record high of $88.2 billion in 2012-13, due to lower gold imports and measures by authorities.
2) Net capital flows also moderated in 2013-14 after large inflows in previous years, increasing external debt levels but remaining manageable.
3) The improvement in the balance of payments position in 2013-14 was a relief after deficits remained unsustainably high in prior years, but the position needs to be sustained going forward.
- The document provides an equity market update for November 2018, summarizing macroeconomic indicators, global market performance, and the performance of the Indian market.
- Key developments in October included a decline in major Indian equity indices of around 5% due to domestic and global factors, continued weakness in the rupee, and heavy selling by foreign institutional investors.
- The document recommends that investors continue investing in pure equity schemes through SIPs for long-term exposure, and consider asset allocation schemes for new investments given ongoing volatility.
This document summarizes a research study that analyzed whether future prices of olein commodities traded on the Jakarta Futures Exchange can be predicted using spot and forward prices from 2015-2017. The study found that forward prices did not affect future prices, while spot prices did have a significant impact on predicting future prices. Thus, the spot price was determined to be the best predictor of future prices for olein commodities traded on the Jakarta Futures Exchange during the period examined. The document provides background on commodity futures trading, definitions of key terms like spot prices, forward prices and future prices, prior relevant research, and an overview of the methodology and findings of the research study.
The document discusses several factors contributing to the devaluation of the Indian rupee, including increased demand for oil and US dollars in India, the US economic recovery prompting foreign investors to pull money out of India, increased gold demand in India, the Indian government's food security bill subsidy, and withdrawals of investment from projects in India by companies like ArcelorMittal and Posco. It concludes that the Indian government and Reserve Bank of India's conservative nature and consideration of upcoming elections have restricted their ability to make hard decisions, and that taking actions like enhancing facilities for foreign investors and implementing the food security bill in stages could help control the devaluation.
A study on country commodity and currency exposure of export management in in...WriteKraft Dissertations
Writekraft Research & Publication LLP.
We are one of the leading PhD assistance company that deals in helping PhD scholars in their Thesis, Research paper writing and publication work. We are providing custom PhD Thesis written for you exactly the way you want along with a Turnitin plagiarism report.
For more Information Contact us@ admin@writekraft.com
Or Call us @ 7753818181, 9838033084
www.writekraft.com
Shunt active power filters based on diode clamped multilevel inverter and hys...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper on a shunt active power filter system based on an 11-step diode clamped multilevel inverter and hysteresis band current control. The system aims to compensate for harmonics in current drawn by non-linear loads and improve the source power factor. It uses instantaneous reactive power theory to generate reference currents and the hysteresis controller provides switching signals for the multilevel inverter. Simulation results showed the system achieved 1.8% total harmonic distortion, 0.99 power factor, compensating 10MW of active power and 0.3MVAR of reactive power.
Sun as a clean energy source for lighting buildings case studyAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a case study on daylighting design in buildings in Tehran, Iran. It discusses how daylighting can substantially reduce energy use by lowering needs for electric lighting. However, excessive daylighting can also increase heating and cooling loads. The study evaluates daylight factors and glazing factors to determine feasibility of daylighting for a building in Tehran. It also discusses strategies for passive solar shading to control glare and heat gain, including recommendations for different building orientations. Calculations are provided to optimize passive shading designs using sun path diagrams specific to Tehran's latitude.
Social investigation of greywater reuse in baghdadAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study on greywater reuse in Baghdad, Iraq. It conducted surveys of 575 households with 3218 residents from August to December 2010. The study aimed to:
1) Evaluate Baghdad's water consumption patterns.
2) Estimate typical household greywater generation.
3) Investigate greywater quality risks for reuse.
4) Assess public acceptance of greywater reuse.
Survey results found that younger adults aged 18-28 were most engaged. Greywater samples were tested for contaminants. While 67% of residents felt water scarcity impacts them, 31% opposed greywater reuse due to health concerns and implementation costs. The study concludes greywater treatment and public education
Removal of anionic surfactant from grey water and its comparison with chemica...Alexander Decker
This document compares the removal of anionic surfactant from greywater using natural and chemical adsorbents. Batch adsorption experiments were conducted using alum and lime as chemical adsorbents, and powdered karanj seed and tulsi leaves as natural adsorbents. The effects of adsorbent dose, pH, contact time, and adsorption isotherms were examined. Results showed that the natural adsorbents were more effective at removing anionic surfactant than the chemical adsorbents. Maximum adsorption capacities were higher for the natural adsorbents based on fitting isotherm data to Langmuir and Freundlich models. Overall, the study demonstrated that
This is a demo version of Williams & Marshall Strategy's report on the Global toluene market. The report presents a strategic analysis of the toluene market in the world and a forecast for its development in the medium term. It provides a comprehensive overview of the market, its dynamics, structure, characteristics, main players, growth and demand drivers, etc. This is the most detailed and comprehensive report about the Global toluene market currently available!
Effecto exchange rate fluctuations on manufacturing sector in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigeria's manufacturing sector from 1985 to 2010. It uses variables like manufacturing GDP, foreign investment, employment, and exchange rates. The study found that exchange rates and foreign investment have a positive impact on manufacturing GDP. It recommends that the government promote export diversification, restrict imports of goods also made in Nigeria, and maintain a stable exchange rate to improve the manufacturing sector performance. The paper provides context on Nigeria's fluctuating exchange rates over time and reviews several other studies that also found exchange rates influence economic growth and agricultural exports.
This document provides a summary of a report on the global styrene market. The report analyzes the state of the styrene market worldwide, including production volumes, imports, exports and consumption. It also forecasts market development in the next five years. The report covers 133 countries and all major global regions. It profiles the largest producers of styrene and their production capacities. The methodology used to create the report includes analysis of official data, interviews with industry experts, secondary research and the company's own methodology.
From the Desk of the CEO.
The heat is on. While many of us have been vacationing in cooler climes, the Sensex has kept itself rather busy, gaining another 4% during the month of May. The upmove has come largely on the back of better-than-expected corporate results and expectations of a good monsoon. Markets are also taking cognisance of various indicators like improved auto sales, higher steel and cement offtake, public infrastructure spending, etc. which are positive signs of an imminent economic recovery.
Crude prices have silently crept up and are currently hovering at the $50 level, almost double from the January lows. So despite the adverse implications of higher crude prices on the Indian economy, there seems to be some positive correlation between crude prices and the equity markets. Though this pattern may not have always played out in the last few decades, the first few months of 2016 certainly seem to indicate so. The main reason for this is the significantly high weightage that the Energy sector has in indices the world over. When oil plummeted to sub-$30 levels, it seriously impacted the profitability of some of the world’s biggest corporations, not only causing their stock prices to fall sharply, but also impacting the broader markets in general. It also indicated a global recessionary trend, thus affecting investor sentiment and causing them to become nervous and risk-averse. The bounce back in crude has brought the price to a level that makes it profitable for companies to drill, creating a sense of well-being for both, the Energy sector as well as the countries whose economies are dependent solely on oil. Where crude prices go from here remains to be seen.
After several quarters of benign inflation, the WPI rose to 0.34% while retail inflation soared to 5.39% in April 2016. This, coupled with higher oil prices would make it difficult for Governor Rajan to announce a rate cut at the next RBI policy meeting on 7th June. Across the globe however, Janet Yellen’s comments on improving economic data in the US has the markets believing that a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve is a high possibility during its next meeting in mid-June. The outcome of Britain’s referendum on Brexit is also an event that we will be closely watching.
With markets factoring in all the good news for now, conventional logic says that short term investors need to be cautious. But when the stock market catches momentum, all negative predictions may be proven wrong.
There are of course, many more bulls than bears when it comes to a 1 year plus view. Long term investors may continue their investments and look to buy into any dips.
Wish all of you a happy monsoon season.
The QE Index gained 4.51% over the week driven by improved regional market performance. Trading value and volume increased 15.74% and 18.03% respectively. Foreign investors remained net sellers while local institutions were net sellers and non-Qatari individuals were net buyers. Regional indices also rose with Dubai gaining the most at 8.62% due to reduced geopolitical tensions. The Qatari population is expected to grow significantly this year due to infrastructure investment leading to job creation.
- The Indian markets rose over the past week to 6-month highs as the Nifty crossed 8000 levels, driven by encouraging corporate results and expectations of a better monsoon.
- Upcoming events like the RBI policy meeting and UK referendum on EU membership could impact markets and currencies globally.
- Domestically, India aims for 7.6% GDP growth in FY17 while remaining a top steel importer globally.
media briefing to release the report “State of the Bangladesh Economy in FY2015 and the Closure of Sixth Five Year Plan,” prepared as part of CPD’s Independent Review of Bangladesh’s Development (IRBD) programme. The event was held at CIRDAP Auditorium, Dhaka on Monday, 1 June 2015.
The Indian rupee has fallen sharply against the US dollar in recent months, dropping 23% since the start of 2012 and hitting a record low. The rupee slide is due to India's large and growing trade deficit, which ballooned to $185 billion in 2011-12 as imports increased faster than exports. Measures taken by the government and the Reserve Bank of India to support the rupee have been ineffective, as the underlying issues of a weak export sector and high oil import bill remain unaddressed. With foreign capital also leaving the country, further declines in the rupee's value appear difficult to prevent in the near term.
The Qatar Stock Exchange Index declined 3.6% during the week, closing at 11,862.51 points. Industries Qatar (IQCD) was the worst performing stock, declining 17.61% and was the biggest contributor to the weekly index decline. Trading value increased 14.9% during the week to QR2.9 billion, led by the Industrials sector. Foreign institutions remained net sellers during the week with net sales of QR133.3 million.
- The Qatar Exchange Index declined 3.31% for the week to close at 13,874.97 points, as market capitalization decreased 3.1% to QR739.2 billion.
- Trading value and volume both decreased from the prior week, falling 18% and 17.3% respectively. The real estate sector accounted for the largest trading volume and value.
- Foreign and Qatari institutions were net sellers during the week, while foreign and Qatari retail investors were net buyers.
The document provides an overview of domestic and global economic news from May 16-20, 2016. Some key points:
- India's wholesale price index turned positive after 17 months, suggesting rising pricing power and potential inflation pressures.
- Crude oil and natural gas production in India fell in April compared to the previous year.
- The US dollar strengthened against the yen and euro zone business growth was stable but below recent highs.
- China will further reform business registration procedures to reduce costs and support economic restructuring.
- Most Indian indices declined over the week, with Sensex falling 1.37%, while crude oil prices rose slightly and the rupee depreciated against the US dollar.
QNBFS Weekly Market Report April 19, 2018QNB Group
- The Qatar Stock Exchange Index increased 3.12% over the week to close at 9,196.62, with market capitalization up 4.1% to QR514 billion.
- QNB Group, Barwa Real Estate Co., and Qatar Islamic Bank were the top contributors to index gains, while Industries Qatar subtracted from the index.
- Foreign institutions remained net buyers at QR192.1 million, while Qatari institutions remained net sellers at QR156.3 million.
The document discusses India's balance of payments position. Some key points:
1) India's current account deficit declined sharply in 2013-14 to $32.4 billion from a record high of $88.2 billion in 2012-13, due to lower gold imports and measures by authorities.
2) Net capital flows also moderated in 2013-14 after large inflows in previous years, increasing external debt levels but remaining manageable.
3) The improvement in the balance of payments position in 2013-14 was a relief after deficits remained unsustainably high in prior years, but the position needs to be sustained going forward.
- The document provides an equity market update for November 2018, summarizing macroeconomic indicators, global market performance, and the performance of the Indian market.
- Key developments in October included a decline in major Indian equity indices of around 5% due to domestic and global factors, continued weakness in the rupee, and heavy selling by foreign institutional investors.
- The document recommends that investors continue investing in pure equity schemes through SIPs for long-term exposure, and consider asset allocation schemes for new investments given ongoing volatility.
This document summarizes a research study that analyzed whether future prices of olein commodities traded on the Jakarta Futures Exchange can be predicted using spot and forward prices from 2015-2017. The study found that forward prices did not affect future prices, while spot prices did have a significant impact on predicting future prices. Thus, the spot price was determined to be the best predictor of future prices for olein commodities traded on the Jakarta Futures Exchange during the period examined. The document provides background on commodity futures trading, definitions of key terms like spot prices, forward prices and future prices, prior relevant research, and an overview of the methodology and findings of the research study.
The document discusses several factors contributing to the devaluation of the Indian rupee, including increased demand for oil and US dollars in India, the US economic recovery prompting foreign investors to pull money out of India, increased gold demand in India, the Indian government's food security bill subsidy, and withdrawals of investment from projects in India by companies like ArcelorMittal and Posco. It concludes that the Indian government and Reserve Bank of India's conservative nature and consideration of upcoming elections have restricted their ability to make hard decisions, and that taking actions like enhancing facilities for foreign investors and implementing the food security bill in stages could help control the devaluation.
A study on country commodity and currency exposure of export management in in...WriteKraft Dissertations
Writekraft Research & Publication LLP.
We are one of the leading PhD assistance company that deals in helping PhD scholars in their Thesis, Research paper writing and publication work. We are providing custom PhD Thesis written for you exactly the way you want along with a Turnitin plagiarism report.
For more Information Contact us@ admin@writekraft.com
Or Call us @ 7753818181, 9838033084
www.writekraft.com
Shunt active power filters based on diode clamped multilevel inverter and hys...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper on a shunt active power filter system based on an 11-step diode clamped multilevel inverter and hysteresis band current control. The system aims to compensate for harmonics in current drawn by non-linear loads and improve the source power factor. It uses instantaneous reactive power theory to generate reference currents and the hysteresis controller provides switching signals for the multilevel inverter. Simulation results showed the system achieved 1.8% total harmonic distortion, 0.99 power factor, compensating 10MW of active power and 0.3MVAR of reactive power.
Sun as a clean energy source for lighting buildings case studyAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a case study on daylighting design in buildings in Tehran, Iran. It discusses how daylighting can substantially reduce energy use by lowering needs for electric lighting. However, excessive daylighting can also increase heating and cooling loads. The study evaluates daylight factors and glazing factors to determine feasibility of daylighting for a building in Tehran. It also discusses strategies for passive solar shading to control glare and heat gain, including recommendations for different building orientations. Calculations are provided to optimize passive shading designs using sun path diagrams specific to Tehran's latitude.
Social investigation of greywater reuse in baghdadAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study on greywater reuse in Baghdad, Iraq. It conducted surveys of 575 households with 3218 residents from August to December 2010. The study aimed to:
1) Evaluate Baghdad's water consumption patterns.
2) Estimate typical household greywater generation.
3) Investigate greywater quality risks for reuse.
4) Assess public acceptance of greywater reuse.
Survey results found that younger adults aged 18-28 were most engaged. Greywater samples were tested for contaminants. While 67% of residents felt water scarcity impacts them, 31% opposed greywater reuse due to health concerns and implementation costs. The study concludes greywater treatment and public education
Removal of anionic surfactant from grey water and its comparison with chemica...Alexander Decker
This document compares the removal of anionic surfactant from greywater using natural and chemical adsorbents. Batch adsorption experiments were conducted using alum and lime as chemical adsorbents, and powdered karanj seed and tulsi leaves as natural adsorbents. The effects of adsorbent dose, pH, contact time, and adsorption isotherms were examined. Results showed that the natural adsorbents were more effective at removing anionic surfactant than the chemical adsorbents. Maximum adsorption capacities were higher for the natural adsorbents based on fitting isotherm data to Langmuir and Freundlich models. Overall, the study demonstrated that
Study dairy cattle in the region of gharb case of rural commune mograneAlexander Decker
The document summarizes a study of dairy cattle farming in the rural commune of Mograne in Morocco. Key findings include:
- Farmers have low levels of education and receive little guidance, leading to traditional practices.
- Milk production depends on breed and herd size. Most cattle (73%) are crossbreeds.
- Poor hygiene practices and climate factors like drought likely contribute to low milk production.
Solid wastes and green open space management in the green hospital perceptionAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study on solid waste management and green open spaces at the Public Regional Hospital of Pare, Kediri, Indonesia. The study found that 44% of respondents felt the hospital's sorting of non-medical solid waste was in accordance with green hospital principles. Field observations showed the largest trees in the hospital's green open spaces provided over 31,000 square centimeters of shading. Measurements of temperature and humidity were used to calculate a discomfort index and found air conditions varied throughout the day and between locations. The management of waste and maintenance of green spaces can impact patient, visitor and staff comfort and satisfaction with the hospital.
Service quality and patients satisfaction with healthcare deliveryAlexander Decker
This study examined service quality and patient satisfaction at a public university hospital in Ghana. A survey of 400 outpatients found gaps between expected and perceived quality across all five SERVQUAL dimensions - responsiveness had the widest gap, followed by reliability, tangibility, empathy, and assurance. Correlation analysis showed perceived responsiveness, empathy, assurance, and tangibility were positively correlated with patient satisfaction, while reliability was not significantly correlated. The study indicates patient satisfaction is best explained by perceived responsiveness, followed by empathy, assurance, tangibility, and reliability.
Recovery of cost of electricity supply in the nigerian power sectorAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research journal article that analyzed revenue generation and cost recovery in Nigeria's power sector. The study examined whether increases in electricity tariffs through the Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO) significantly increased revenue and cost recovery from 2008-2012. The researchers discovered that while full cost recovery was not achieved in some years, the level of recovery was significant. Revenue also significantly increased after MYTO was implemented in 2008. However, increased tariffs did not have a significant impact on power generation. The researchers recommend that future tariffs allow private operators to recover costs and make profits when they take over the sector. Efforts should also be made to reduce transmission losses and improve service quality to increase demand.
Self help groups an empowerment model or financial model perceptions of stak...Alexander Decker
This document discusses self-help groups (SHGs) in India and debates whether they should be considered an empowerment model or a financial model. It reviews literature that identifies SHGs as promoting both women's empowerment and acting as microfinance institutions. The document outlines indicators used to measure empowerment in previous studies and develops a framework of 40 indicators across various domains. It also discusses how SHGs can be viewed as financial intermediaries by facilitating access to credit for poor families. The main objective of the study is to assess stakeholders' perceptions on whether SHGs are best understood as an empowerment model or a financial model.
Revisiting ethno nationalism in the niger delta of nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes and analyzes the phenomenon of ethno-nationalism in Nigeria's Niger Delta region. It discusses how various ethno-nationalist groups emerged in the late 1990s and 2000s advocating for the rights and interests of marginalized ethnic groups in the Niger Delta amidst environmental degradation, poverty, and political neglect by the Nigerian state. While these groups helped elevate international awareness of the Niger Delta's plight, the document argues that the political elite and some former militant leaders have largely benefited from increased revenues and development funds, rather than the wider population. It posits that if the root causes of ethno-nationalism are not addressed, new counter-hegemonic forces may soon emerge in the
Small scale enterprises, poverty alleviation and job creation in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research study that examined the impact of small-scale enterprises, specifically burnt bricklaying, on poverty alleviation and job creation in Nigeria. Some key findings:
1) Burnt bricklaying has a significant positive impact on poverty alleviation, job creation, and income generation in Nigeria based on the study results.
2) The study identified major challenges faced by burnt bricklayers, including poor infrastructure, low brick prices, low demand for bricks, and lack of operating capital.
3) The study recommends that governments and financial institutions address these challenges to support small enterprises as a means of creating jobs and reducing poverty in Nigeria.
Este documento explica los saltos de página y sección en Microsoft Word 2010. Indica que Word inserta saltos de página automáticamente al final de cada página, pero también se pueden agregar manualmente. Explica cómo evitar que un párrafo quede dividido entre páginas y cómo usar diferentes tipos de saltos de sección como "Página siguiente" o "Continua" para cambiar el formato o empezar en página impar.
Strategies for enhancing healthy sexual behaviour among secondary school adol...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that investigated strategies for enhancing healthy sexual behavior among secondary school adolescents in Nigeria. The study found that unhealthy sexual behaviors led to increased rates of unwanted pregnancies, sexually transmitted diseases, deaths, and abortions. Strategies identified to promote healthy behaviors included providing sexual education during school assemblies, encouraging emulation of parents' healthy behaviors, discouraging viewing of pornographic films, and displaying information about the harms of unhealthy behaviors. There was no significant difference found between urban and rural adolescents' perceptions of the consequences of unhealthy sexual behaviors.
Este documento explica cómo combinar correspondencia en Microsoft Word para automatizar la generación de cartas u oficios personalizados para múltiples destinatarios. El proceso implica crear una plantilla de carta e insertar campos de datos provenientes de una hoja de cálculo de Excel que contiene la información de contacto de cada destinatario. Luego, Word combina automáticamente la carta plantilla con los datos específicos de cada destinatario para generar documentos personalizados de manera masiva.
Relationship between foreign trade deficit and special consumption tax revenu...Alexander Decker
This document analyzes the relationship between foreign trade deficits and special consumption tax revenues in Turkey from 2006-2013. It finds that while neither time series was stationary, there is a bidirectional causal relationship between the two variables using the Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis method. The document provides background on Turkey's foreign trade deficits, outlines the theoretical framework for analyzing the relationship between deficits and special consumption taxes, and presents data on trade balances, tax revenues, and growth rates to support the empirical analysis finding a bidirectional causal link.
Rice straw geotextile as ground cover for soil erosion mitigationAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that evaluated the effectiveness of rice straw geotextiles (RSM and RSN) in mitigating soil erosion compared to coco coir net and a bare plot under different rainfall intensities and slope gradients. Key findings include:
1) RSM was most effective at reducing soil loss, followed by RSN, CCN, and the bare plot. Lower soil erosion occurred at higher slope gradients (60 degrees) and lower rainfall intensities.
2) Sediment concentration, sediment yield, and soil erosion increased non-linearly with slope, peaking around 35 degrees then declining at higher slopes.
3) Sediment concentration was best modeled with a quadratic equation relating it to slope gradient.
Supply chain cost identification as a means of cost reduction strategy. a ca...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research article that examines the supply chain processes of Ghana Supply Company Limited (GSCL) with the aim of identifying non-value adding activities to offer cost reduction strategies. The study used questionnaires and interviews with GSCL procurement, warehousing, and shipping personnel. Findings showed GSCL's supply chain operations are well-coordinated under the director of operations. Activities like procurement, shipping, warehousing and fleet management are integrated. The study also found GSCL uses strategies like proper procurement planning and effective lead time management to reduce supply chain costs.
Este documento describe cómo las tablas permiten organizar la información en filas y columnas para realizar operaciones sobre los datos. Una tabla está formada por celdas agrupadas en filas y columnas, donde se puede insertar texto, números o gráficos. El documento también cubre la creación, estilos y diseño de tablas.
Regression models for prediction of water quality in krishna riverAlexander Decker
The document summarizes a study that developed regression models to predict water quality in the Krishna River in India based on land use data. Key points:
1) Regression models were developed relating concentrations of dissolved solids in the river to land use characteristics during the wet season, when most rainfall and runoff occurs.
2) Land use in the river basin is mainly agriculture, forest, and waste land. Correlation analyses found relationships between certain dissolved solids and different land uses.
3) The regression models accounted for a significant percentage of variation in concentrations of calcium, bicarbonates, chlorides, sulfates, nitrates, phosphates, and silicates based on land use data.
This document provides information about using technology to connect students globally through information communication and collaboration. It discusses how new literacies like blogs, wikis, and video sharing can be used to have students communicate, collaborate, create, and contribute. Several specific global collaborative learning projects are described that partner students, educators, and community members around the world. The document emphasizes that technologies should be used to foster meaningful communication and collaboration, and to prepare students to become responsible global citizens.
This document provides an overview of a report analyzing techniques to manage crude oil price risk. It introduces factors that affect crude oil prices and their correlation to price fluctuations. It also analyzes financial instruments like options, futures, and derivatives that can be used by oil investors and producers. The report concludes various hedging techniques can help mitigate risk and maximize profits, and it recommends investors utilize different financial tools and closely follow market fundamentals to estimate prices and profit from changes.
The document discusses investigating the pass-through effect of global oil price shocks to domestic inflation in selected African countries. It finds that domestic prices respond differently to oil price shocks depending on whether a country is metal-resource rich, non-resource rich, or oil-rich. Oil-rich countries tend to experience a short-term decrease in domestic prices followed by increases due to subsidy programs. Metal and non-resource countries see domestic price increases. The study concludes global oil price shocks could worsen inflation in non-oil producing countries and recommends investments in renewable energy and stabilizing production activities.
Cause & effect relationshipt research paper qta -kashif ahmed saeedKashif Ahmed Saeed
This document summarizes a study that investigates the causal relationship between oil prices and stock prices in Pakistan, the United States, and Kuwait over a 5-year period. Regression and Granger causality tests were used to analyze the relationship between variables such as oil prices, stock prices, GDP, inflation, interest rates, and investment. The results found that rises in oil prices directly impact stock prices in the countries. Hypothesis tests confirmed there is an effect of oil prices on stock prices and that oil price increases cause stock prices to increase.
Honours Thesis 2015 - An Analysis of Fuel Prices and Fuel Taxation in South A...Justin de la Hunt
This document analyzes fuel prices and taxation in South Africa. It finds that the general fuel levy is a more appropriate taxation method than VAT due to its progressive nature and the control it gives policymakers. The document also develops models to predict fuel prices based on lagged oil prices and exchange rates, in order to help policymakers estimate future tax revenue from the fuel levy. This analysis concludes that the general fuel levy is the preferred policy tool for South Africa.
This is a publication by the International Energy Forum on Insights into the price formation in oil markets, as discussed in Vienna, Austria on 28 November 2013
Crude oil price, stock price and some selected macroeconomic indicatorsAlexander Decker
This document analyzes the impact of crude oil prices, stock prices, and macroeconomic indicators like interest rates and exchange rates on Nigeria's economic growth from 1980-2010. Using techniques like Johansen cointegration, unit root tests, and error correction modeling, the study finds that crude oil prices, stock prices, and exchange rates have a significant influence on economic growth in Nigeria. Specifically, GDP growth is positively associated with stock prices and exchange rates, but negatively associated with crude oil prices and interest rates. The study recommends that Nigeria diversify its economy away from oil reliance and ensure transparency in financial markets to boost growth.
This document discusses how estimates of fiscal breakeven oil prices can vary between analysts and organizations. It provides examples of different estimates for Kuwait's 2015 breakeven price ranging from $54 to $78. The variations occur because analysts may use different historical data, production and spending forecasts, and methodology regarding inclusion of investment income. The document then models breakeven prices for Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and UAE from 2009-2020 using IMF and IIF data, calculating prices with and without investment income. It finds investment income significantly impacts Kuwait's price but not Saudi Arabia's, while without it UAE's could increase 25-50%. Projected prices are provided through 2020.
The document discusses how estimates of fiscal breakeven oil prices can vary between analysts due to differences in methodology and assumptions. It analyzes the breakeven oil price projections for Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE from 2015 to 2020 using IMF and IIF data. The analysis calculates breakeven prices both with and without including investment income as non-oil revenues, finding this can significantly impact estimated breakeven prices, particularly for Kuwait and the UAE. Projections show Kuwait's breakeven price rising to $54.1/barrel by 2020 if including investment income, or $89.3/barrel without, while estimates for Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain relatively stable.
Determinants Factors of Stock Price in Oil and Gas Sector (Indonesia Stock Ex...Mercu Buana University
The purpose of this study is to examine the factors that affect the stock prices of oil and gas subsector companies (oil and gas). These factors are Oil Price, Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), and Exchange Rate. The research design used is comparative causal research. Sampling in this research is done by using purposive sampling method technique. The analysis technique used is panel data regression analysis. The result of the study by using f-statistic test shows that the variable of Oil Price, DER and Exchange Rate simultaneously have a significant effect on Stock Price. While the result of the t-statistic test shows that the variable of Oil Price has a significant positive impact, while DER and Exchange Rate have a significant negative effect to a stock price of oil and gas listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2011-2016.
11.crude oil price, stock price and some selected macroeconomic indicatorsAlexander Decker
This document analyzes the impact of crude oil prices, stock prices, and macroeconomic indicators like interest rates and exchange rates on Nigeria's economic growth from 1980-2010. Using techniques like Johansen cointegration, unit root tests, and error correction modeling, the study finds that crude oil prices, stock prices, and exchange rates have a significant influence on economic growth in Nigeria. Specifically, GDP growth is positively associated with stock prices and exchange rates, but negatively associated with crude oil prices and interest rates. The study recommends that Nigeria diversify its economy away from oil reliance and ensure transparency in financial markets to boost growth.
The Impact of Oil Price on Economic Development of Kurdistan Region of Iraq f...IJAEMSJORNAL
This article analyzes the impact of oil price on economic development in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq from 1997-2019. It finds that oil price and oil production value have a statistically significant positive relationship with GDP. As the Kurdistan Region relies heavily on oil exports, changes in international oil prices can significantly impact economic growth. The findings suggest economic development in the region is strongly influenced by factors affecting oil prices and production levels. The article concludes more efforts are needed to utilize other resources besides oil revenues to increase income and stabilize the economy.
This paper employs time varying coefficient approach to assess sensitivity of crude oil price change to a number of factors among which change in OPEC crude production and change in US oil production. Our finding indicate crude oil price is inelastic to OPEC production change, with elasticity varying between 0.09 and 0.13, but elastic to US oil production change with elasticity between 0.99 and 1.05. This imply on average crude oil price is about 8 times more responsive to US supply expansion than to OPEC supply decisions. As a result, OPEC producers have a limited impact on oil price reversal but the withdrawal of the US high cost shale technology producers from crude oil production at low price levels can be more effective driver of oil price rises in the future. Such low level sensitivity of oil price to change in OPEC supply imply, other things remain unchanged, for oil price to rise from the current $45 per barrel to $70 per barrel, OPEC cartel needs to cut its current daily production of 27 million barrels by 8 percent.
Peg to Export Price PEP as a Monetary Regime for Small Commodity-Exporters, S...Albino Ajack
The document proposes pegging the exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries, especially oil exporters, to the price of their main export commodity (Peg to Export Price/PEP). It uses data from 6 major oil exporters between 1986-2014 to estimate the relationship between exchange rates and oil prices under floating and hypothetical PEP regimes. The analysis finds exchange rates in countries with floating regimes diverged more from oil-linked rates compared to the hypothetical PEP. This indicates PEP may better maintain monetary stability in commodity-dependent economies by automatically adjusting the exchange rate to offset fluctuations in commodity prices.
Measuring the Effect of Fixed Capital Formation in the Non-Oil Sector on Econ...inventionjournals
This study aimed in principle to measure the long-run effect of Fixed Capital Formation of the Non-Oil sector on the economic growth in kingdom of Saudi Arabia and whether the crowding-out of the current Expenditure to the capital Expenditure in KSA exists. To this end, the author based his research on the Johansen Co-integration Test, the Error Correction Model (ECM) and the Granger Causality Test. The results of the study have shown that there's a long-run equilibrium relationship between the growth rate of the Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Non-oil Sector (NOI) and changes that occur to the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product at constant prices in Non-oil Sector (NOGDP). In addition, the study has reached the conclusion that a long-run change in the growth rate of the Non-oil Gross Fixed Capital Formation (NOI) by 1% will lead to a change in the growth rate of the Non-oil Gross Domestic Product (NOGDP) by 0.169%. The results made it clear that the relationship between changes in the constant- price NOI growth rate and changes in the (NOGDP) growth rate in the long run is a direct proportional relationship (the elasticity coefficient is positive; as the rise in the (NOI)growth rate will result in a rise in the (NOGDP) growth rate and vice versa. Moreover, the causality test results indicate that there's a two-way causal relationship between the growth rate of the Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Non-oil Sector (NOI) and changes in the growth rate of the constantprice GDP in Non-oil Sector(NOGDP). The results confirmed the the existence of crowding –out where the ratio of current Expenditure reached an average of 72.15% over the period 1974-2014. Capital Expenditure constituted only 28.85% of the total actual Expenditure for the same period. Usually sizable portion of the budget is allocated to this current Expenditure to meet an increasing wages and salaries of the public sector and other payments which asserts the imbalance in relative distribution of current and capital Expenditure which entails that Saudi authorities should take important decisions to increase the ratio of capital Expenditure at the expense of the current one specifically on wages and salaries. The researcher has offered a number of recommendations, among which the most significant ones are: The primary focus of the endeavour to stimulate and accelerate economic growth rates in the KSA should be based on achieving greater capital accumulation (i.e. increasing fixed capital formation), which the study proved to have a higher degree of elasticity with relation to economic growth in the long term, Another important recommendation is the need to direct a greater deal of government Expenditure in the KSA towards higher investment Expenditure, along with rationalizing current Expenditure.
This document summarizes a study that examined the relationship between oil price, inflation, and exchange rate in Nigeria from 1990 to 2017. The study used a Vector Autoregressive Distributive model to analyze the data. The findings showed that increases in oil price had a marginal positive effect on both inflation and exchange rate, while decreases in oil price had a significant negative impact. Therefore, the relationship between oil price, inflation, and exchange rate in Nigeria during the study period was asymmetric. The study recommends that Nigeria's monetary and fiscal policies should monitor international oil market behavior when being formulated.
Despite credit market turbulence and slowing activity in many major advanced economies, oil prices have been reaching record highs in recent months. Besides oil-specific factors, such as geopolitical risks and speculations, the current price boom is driven by demand and supply forces that reinforce each other amid supportive financial conditions. This paper aims to a link macroeconomic variables together with oil prices in order to provide complement decision tools used by commercial and investment banks when optimizing their investment portfolios. For that reason, we apply financial programming model with incorporated oil price variable. We show that oil prices affect private consumption, gross domestic product, inflation, and imports. On the other hand, we also investigate effects of macroeconomic variables on oil market equilibrium. A decrease in oil supply as well as depreciation of the US$ lead to higher oil prices, which in turn decrease private consumption and output, but as well stimulate inflationary pressures. Empirical test is performed on the basis of quarterly US data from 2001 to 2007. Although financial programming models are subject to limitations and empirical implications are difficult to apply, some general relations between selected macroeconomic variables and oil price can be determined.
Understanding Attitudes towards Gasoline Import Demand in Viet NamIOSRJBM
Even with its vast reserves of oil and gas potential, the government has put this fuel resource the top of priority sectors for development, as it views as central to national economic growth as well as energy security, Viet Nam has remained a net importer of petroleum products over the past eight years. On another word, Gasoline importation has been a superior absorbability on the economy of Viet Nam, the determinants of the refined oil products imported activities analysis have been found no study yet. This paper aims to suggest the leading factors affecting import demand performances for petroleum products. The autoregressive distributed lag modelling framework (ARDL) have applied to this research; we estimated various short-run and long-run import demand models for Gasoline using time series study over the period 1995-2015. The results showed that the application of gas is stable prices in both the long and short term. Other principal operators of gas import probably are the real effective exchange rate, domestic petroleum production, and population growth. Moreover, a real economic activity found the most active and influential driver of gasoline demand accordance with the inelastic and elastic coefficients estimated in the short-run and long-run, respectively.
Impact Analysis of Petroluem Product Price Changes on Households’ Welfare in ...inventionjournals
This document examines the impact of changes in petrol, liquefied petroleum gas, and kerosene prices on household welfare in Zaria, Nigeria. It finds that increases in the prices of these petroleum products decrease demand for the products and have multiplier effects that increase prices of other goods and services. Conversely, decreases in petroleum product prices increase demand for the products. The study uses surveys and statistical analysis to show that changes in the prices of these three fuels significantly impact household welfare in Zaria.
Pricing of petroleum products in IndiaAnkur Bansal
The document discusses the factors that influence gasoline prices in India and the evolution of pricing systems. It provides details on the administrative pricing mechanism (APM) used from 1974-1998 and its limitations. Subsequently, import parity and trade parity pricing mechanisms were introduced. Current problems include oil marketing companies having to sell certain fuels below market rates, resulting in losses compensated by government subsidies. Deregulating fuel prices could help address this issue.
Similar to Searching for appropriate crude oil price benchmarking method in the nigerian budgeting process (20)
Abnormalities of hormones and inflammatory cytokines in women affected with p...Alexander Decker
Women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) have elevated levels of hormones like luteinizing hormone and testosterone, as well as higher levels of insulin and insulin resistance compared to healthy women. They also have increased levels of inflammatory markers like C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and leptin. This study found these abnormalities in the hormones and inflammatory cytokines of women with PCOS ages 23-40, indicating that hormone imbalances associated with insulin resistance and elevated inflammatory markers may worsen infertility in women with PCOS.
A usability evaluation framework for b2 c e commerce websitesAlexander Decker
This document presents a framework for evaluating the usability of B2C e-commerce websites. It involves user testing methods like usability testing and interviews to identify usability problems in areas like navigation, design, purchasing processes, and customer service. The framework specifies goals for the evaluation, determines which website aspects to evaluate, and identifies target users. It then describes collecting data through user testing and analyzing the results to identify usability problems and suggest improvements.
A universal model for managing the marketing executives in nigerian banksAlexander Decker
This document discusses a study that aimed to synthesize motivation theories into a universal model for managing marketing executives in Nigerian banks. The study was guided by Maslow and McGregor's theories. A sample of 303 marketing executives was used. The results showed that managers will be most effective at motivating marketing executives if they consider individual needs and create challenging but attainable goals. The emerged model suggests managers should provide job satisfaction by tailoring assignments to abilities and monitoring performance with feedback. This addresses confusion faced by Nigerian bank managers in determining effective motivation strategies.
A unique common fixed point theorems in generalized dAlexander Decker
This document presents definitions and properties related to generalized D*-metric spaces and establishes some common fixed point theorems for contractive type mappings in these spaces. It begins by introducing D*-metric spaces and generalized D*-metric spaces, defines concepts like convergence and Cauchy sequences. It presents lemmas showing the uniqueness of limits in these spaces and the equivalence of different definitions of convergence. The goal of the paper is then stated as obtaining a unique common fixed point theorem for generalized D*-metric spaces.
A trends of salmonella and antibiotic resistanceAlexander Decker
This document provides a review of trends in Salmonella and antibiotic resistance. It begins with an introduction to Salmonella as a facultative anaerobe that causes nontyphoidal salmonellosis. The emergence of antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella is then discussed. The document proceeds to cover the historical perspective and classification of Salmonella, definitions of antimicrobials and antibiotic resistance, and mechanisms of antibiotic resistance in Salmonella including modification or destruction of antimicrobial agents, efflux pumps, modification of antibiotic targets, and decreased membrane permeability. Specific resistance mechanisms are discussed for several classes of antimicrobials.
A transformational generative approach towards understanding al-istifhamAlexander Decker
This document discusses a transformational-generative approach to understanding Al-Istifham, which refers to interrogative sentences in Arabic. It begins with an introduction to the origin and development of Arabic grammar. The paper then explains the theoretical framework of transformational-generative grammar that is used. Basic linguistic concepts and terms related to Arabic grammar are defined. The document analyzes how interrogative sentences in Arabic can be derived and transformed via tools from transformational-generative grammar, categorizing Al-Istifham into linguistic and literary questions.
A time series analysis of the determinants of savings in namibiaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study on the determinants of savings in Namibia from 1991 to 2012. It reviews previous literature on savings determinants in developing countries. The study uses time series analysis including unit root tests, cointegration, and error correction models to analyze the relationship between savings and variables like income, inflation, population growth, deposit rates, and financial deepening in Namibia. The results found inflation and income have a positive impact on savings, while population growth negatively impacts savings. Deposit rates and financial deepening were found to have no significant impact. The study reinforces previous work and emphasizes the importance of improving income levels to achieve higher savings rates in Namibia.
A therapy for physical and mental fitness of school childrenAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study on the importance of exercise in maintaining physical and mental fitness for school children. It discusses how physical and mental fitness are developed through participation in regular physical exercises and cannot be achieved solely through classroom learning. The document outlines different types and components of fitness and argues that developing fitness should be a key objective of education systems. It recommends that schools ensure pupils engage in graded physical activities and exercises to support their overall development.
A theory of efficiency for managing the marketing executives in nigerian banksAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study examining efficiency in managing marketing executives in Nigerian banks. The study was examined through the lenses of Kaizen theory (continuous improvement) and efficiency theory. A survey of 303 marketing executives from Nigerian banks found that management plays a key role in identifying and implementing efficiency improvements. The document recommends adopting a "3H grand strategy" to improve the heads, hearts, and hands of management and marketing executives by enhancing their knowledge, attitudes, and tools.
This document discusses evaluating the link budget for effective 900MHz GSM communication. It describes the basic parameters needed for a high-level link budget calculation, including transmitter power, antenna gains, path loss, and propagation models. Common propagation models for 900MHz that are described include Okumura model for urban areas and Hata model for urban, suburban, and open areas. Rain attenuation is also incorporated using the updated ITU model to improve communication during rainfall.
A synthetic review of contraceptive supplies in punjabAlexander Decker
This document discusses contraceptive use in Punjab, Pakistan. It begins by providing background on the benefits of family planning and contraceptive use for maternal and child health. It then analyzes contraceptive commodity data from Punjab, finding that use is still low despite efforts to improve access. The document concludes by emphasizing the need for strategies to bridge gaps and meet the unmet need for effective and affordable contraceptive methods and supplies in Punjab in order to improve health outcomes.
A synthesis of taylor’s and fayol’s management approaches for managing market...Alexander Decker
1) The document discusses synthesizing Taylor's scientific management approach and Fayol's process management approach to identify an effective way to manage marketing executives in Nigerian banks.
2) It reviews Taylor's emphasis on efficiency and breaking tasks into small parts, and Fayol's focus on developing general management principles.
3) The study administered a survey to 303 marketing executives in Nigerian banks to test if combining elements of Taylor and Fayol's approaches would help manage their performance through clear roles, accountability, and motivation. Statistical analysis supported combining the two approaches.
A survey paper on sequence pattern mining with incrementalAlexander Decker
This document summarizes four algorithms for sequential pattern mining: GSP, ISM, FreeSpan, and PrefixSpan. GSP is an Apriori-based algorithm that incorporates time constraints. ISM extends SPADE to incrementally update patterns after database changes. FreeSpan uses frequent items to recursively project databases and grow subsequences. PrefixSpan also uses projection but claims to not require candidate generation. It recursively projects databases based on short prefix patterns. The document concludes by stating the goal was to find an efficient scheme for extracting sequential patterns from transactional datasets.
A survey on live virtual machine migrations and its techniquesAlexander Decker
This document summarizes several techniques for live virtual machine migration in cloud computing. It discusses works that have proposed affinity-aware migration models to improve resource utilization, energy efficient migration approaches using storage migration and live VM migration, and a dynamic consolidation technique using migration control to avoid unnecessary migrations. The document also summarizes works that have designed methods to minimize migration downtime and network traffic, proposed a resource reservation framework for efficient migration of multiple VMs, and addressed real-time issues in live migration. Finally, it provides a table summarizing the techniques, tools used, and potential future work or gaps identified for each discussed work.
A survey on data mining and analysis in hadoop and mongo dbAlexander Decker
This document discusses data mining of big data using Hadoop and MongoDB. It provides an overview of Hadoop and MongoDB and their uses in big data analysis. Specifically, it proposes using Hadoop for distributed processing and MongoDB for data storage and input. The document reviews several related works that discuss big data analysis using these tools, as well as their capabilities for scalable data storage and mining. It aims to improve computational time and fault tolerance for big data analysis by mining data stored in Hadoop using MongoDB and MapReduce.
1. The document discusses several challenges for integrating media with cloud computing including media content convergence, scalability and expandability, finding appropriate applications, and reliability.
2. Media content convergence challenges include dealing with the heterogeneity of media types, services, networks, devices, and quality of service requirements as well as integrating technologies used by media providers and consumers.
3. Scalability and expandability challenges involve adapting to the increasing volume of media content and being able to support new media formats and outlets over time.
This document surveys trust architectures that leverage provenance in wireless sensor networks. It begins with background on provenance, which refers to the documented history or derivation of data. Provenance can be used to assess trust by providing metadata about how data was processed. The document then discusses challenges for using provenance to establish trust in wireless sensor networks, which have constraints on energy and computation. Finally, it provides background on trust, which is the subjective probability that a node will behave dependably. Trust architectures need to be lightweight to account for the constraints of wireless sensor networks.
This document discusses private equity investments in Kenya. It provides background on private equity and discusses trends in various regions. The objectives of the study discussed are to establish the extent of private equity adoption in Kenya, identify common forms of private equity utilized, and determine typical exit strategies. Private equity can involve venture capital, leveraged buyouts, or mezzanine financing. Exits allow recycling of capital into new opportunities. The document provides context on private equity globally and in developing markets like Africa to frame the goals of the study.
This document discusses a study that analyzes the financial health of the Indian logistics industry from 2005-2012 using Altman's Z-score model. The study finds that the average Z-score for selected logistics firms was in the healthy to very healthy range during the study period. The average Z-score increased from 2006 to 2010 when the Indian economy was hit by the global recession, indicating the overall performance of the Indian logistics industry was good. The document reviews previous literature on measuring financial performance and distress using ratios and Z-scores, and outlines the objectives and methodology used in the current study.
Best Competitive Marble Pricing in Dubai - ☎ 9928909666Stone Art Hub
Stone Art Hub offers the best competitive Marble Pricing in Dubai, ensuring affordability without compromising quality. With a wide range of exquisite marble options to choose from, you can enhance your spaces with elegance and sophistication. For inquiries or orders, contact us at ☎ 9928909666. Experience luxury at unbeatable prices.
How MJ Global Leads the Packaging Industry.pdfMJ Global
MJ Global's success in staying ahead of the curve in the packaging industry is a testament to its dedication to innovation, sustainability, and customer-centricity. By embracing technological advancements, leading in eco-friendly solutions, collaborating with industry leaders, and adapting to evolving consumer preferences, MJ Global continues to set new standards in the packaging sector.
Taurus Zodiac Sign: Unveiling the Traits, Dates, and Horoscope Insights of th...my Pandit
Dive into the steadfast world of the Taurus Zodiac Sign. Discover the grounded, stable, and logical nature of Taurus individuals, and explore their key personality traits, important dates, and horoscope insights. Learn how the determination and patience of the Taurus sign make them the rock-steady achievers and anchors of the zodiac.
The Most Inspiring Entrepreneurs to Follow in 2024.pdfthesiliconleaders
In a world where the potential of youth innovation remains vastly untouched, there emerges a guiding light in the form of Norm Goldstein, the Founder and CEO of EduNetwork Partners. His dedication to this cause has earned him recognition as a Congressional Leadership Award recipient.
The Genesis of BriansClub.cm Famous Dark WEb PlatformSabaaSudozai
BriansClub.cm, a famous platform on the dark web, has become one of the most infamous carding marketplaces, specializing in the sale of stolen credit card data.
Unveiling the Dynamic Personalities, Key Dates, and Horoscope Insights: Gemin...my Pandit
Explore the fascinating world of the Gemini Zodiac Sign. Discover the unique personality traits, key dates, and horoscope insights of Gemini individuals. Learn how their sociable, communicative nature and boundless curiosity make them the dynamic explorers of the zodiac. Dive into the duality of the Gemini sign and understand their intellectual and adventurous spirit.
The Steadfast and Reliable Bull: Taurus Zodiac Signmy Pandit
Explore the steadfast and reliable nature of the Taurus Zodiac Sign. Discover the personality traits, key dates, and horoscope insights that define the determined and practical Taurus, and learn how their grounded nature makes them the anchor of the zodiac.
The APCO Geopolitical Radar - Q3 2024 The Global Operating Environment for Bu...APCO
The Radar reflects input from APCO’s teams located around the world. It distils a host of interconnected events and trends into insights to inform operational and strategic decisions. Issues covered in this edition include:
Digital Marketing with a Focus on Sustainabilitysssourabhsharma
Digital Marketing best practices including influencer marketing, content creators, and omnichannel marketing for Sustainable Brands at the Sustainable Cosmetics Summit 2024 in New York
Part 2 Deep Dive: Navigating the 2024 Slowdownjeffkluth1
Introduction
The global retail industry has weathered numerous storms, with the financial crisis of 2008 serving as a poignant reminder of the sector's resilience and adaptability. However, as we navigate the complex landscape of 2024, retailers face a unique set of challenges that demand innovative strategies and a fundamental shift in mindset. This white paper contrasts the impact of the 2008 recession on the retail sector with the current headwinds retailers are grappling with, while offering a comprehensive roadmap for success in this new paradigm.
Call8328958814 satta matka Kalyan result satta guessing➑➌➋➑➒➎➑➑➊➍
Satta Matka Kalyan Main Mumbai Fastest Results
Satta Matka ❋ Sattamatka ❋ New Mumbai Ratan Satta Matka ❋ Fast Matka ❋ Milan Market ❋ Kalyan Matka Results ❋ Satta Game ❋ Matka Game ❋ Satta Matka ❋ Kalyan Satta Matka ❋ Mumbai Main ❋ Online Matka Results ❋ Satta Matka Tips ❋ Milan Chart ❋ Satta Matka Boss❋ New Star Day ❋ Satta King ❋ Live Satta Matka Results ❋ Satta Matka Company ❋ Indian Matka ❋ Satta Matka 143❋ Kalyan Night Matka..
Searching for appropriate crude oil price benchmarking method in the nigerian budgeting process
1. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
Searching for Appropriate Crude Oil Price Benchmarking Method in the
Nigerian Budgeting Process
A.G. Abiola and Harrison O. Okafor*
National Institute for Legislative Studies,
National Assembly, Abuja-Nigeria
*Corresponding Email: agiboy2000@yahoo.com
Abstract
One of the fundamental challenges facing policymakers in Nigeria is the benchmarking of crude oil price in the
budgeting process. Appropriate projection of future behavior of crude oil price is imperative in setting and
achieving macroeconomic objectives of the government. This paper surveyed the various forecasting models and
examined the current Moving Average benchmarking method to determine the best forecasting model for
Nigeria. Using quarterly data from 2005Q1 to2012Q4 on oil price benchmark, the study finds that ARIMA
model is the best forecasting model for projecting Nigeria’s crude oil price benchmark. Based on this scenario, it
was also found that $80 could be the appropriate crude oil price benchmark for 2013 fiscal year. The study
suggests that benchmarking of crude oil should be based on the crude oil price fundamental to enhance
predictability of policy and promote macroeconomic stability.
Key words: Budget Process, Forecasting Models, Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability
JEL: C22, C53, E24, H3 & H6
1.
Background
In the determination of domestic crude oil price benchmark for budgeting, there are varying degrees of
endogenous and exogenous factors that influence the pegging of crude oil price benchmark in the Nigerian
budgeting process. These include the social and economic objectives of the government, cost of oil production,
Joint-Venture Agreement consideration, and production sharing contract, non-oil sector viability and the overall
fiscal stance of the government. The interplay of these variables affects not only the benchmark of crude oil for
budgeting but the government revenue stream projections in her fiscal planning.
Since 2005, the Nigeria budget framework has been anchored on pegging oil price benchmark to certain pricing
mechanism in relation to expected but uncertain global economic outlook and conditions. Nigeria’s
policymakers use the Moving Average Method (MAM) for pegging oil price benchmarks (BOF, 2012). This has
produced several implications based on the changing economic environment particularly long term economic
projections framework of MAM as against the short-term crude oil price dynamic behaviour. Consequently, this
has continued to trigger further challenge to systematically track the emerging challenges associated with shortrun economic unexpected wide fluctuation that affect development planning circles.
In addition, the budget as an instrument of economic governance requires the inputs of all the relevant
stakeholders including the National Assembly. Despite the critical role of the National Assembly in Budget
planning, its ability to effectively control budget planning is limited by the information available to her. The
MAM used by the executive in budget preparation has raised serious concern among public affair analyst on the
factors and underlying assumption that informed the choice of this method. Major arguments against this method
range from its public perception as an ad hoc way of benchmarking oil price to its inability to predict short-terms
dynamics of oil price. Thus, legislators, economists and public affair analysts have argued that alternatives that
could provide counterfactual facts should be explored to inform economic policy.
This paper therefore, seeks to examine the crude oil price benchmarking mechanism in Nigeria with a view to
fashioning out an alternative method that could address the domestic and external market fundamentals which
influence crude oil price behaviour. Additional effort in this study was the forecasting of crude oil price
benchmark for 2013 fiscal year.
The rest of this paper is structure into six sections. The conceptual clarification about oil price regimes and
benchmarking is the focus of section 2, while section 3 deals with the stylized facts about crude oil benchmark
price in the Nigerian budgeting Process. Section 4 contains a robust discussion on Moving Average Method as
operated in Nigeria as well as other alternative models of forecasting time series. The empirical result of the
tested Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model used for forecasting oil price benchmark was presented
in section 5. The policy implications of the study are pursued in section 6 while section 7 concludes the study.
2. Conceptual Clarification about Oil Price Benchmarking
In economic literature, there is no unique dimension or conceptual perspective to the determination of crude oil
price benchmark in both the international crude oil market and the domestic economic environment. However,
pricing of crude oil or its administration has passed through phases of price regulations and structures. These are
categorized into three price regimes. The posted price, the OPEC administered price and the market determined
57
2. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
crude oil pricing structure (see, Fattouh, 2011). Within these frameworks, various kinds of crude oil price
benchmark methods have emerged and adopted which we shall analyze subsequently.
The posted pricing framework is the first oil pricing system associated with the concession system used to
calculate the stream of revenues accruing to host government by the multinational companies. This method
which existed between 1950 and 1973 was based on contract agreement between the host government and her
concessionaire (the multinational companies) over time, and does not reflect conventional price determination
mechanism. Moreover, the emergence of OPEC in 1960 resulted into another pricing framework of crude oil in
the international market known as the OPEC administered price. This pricing framework is centered on
providing a stronger platform for oil exporting countries to maximize oil rent not below the posted price. Thus,
long term contract price which involves supplying crude oil over an agreed price is a variant of the OPEC
administered pricing regime that emerged from this school of thought. This pricing method, nevertheless, was
challenged by the emergence of non-OPEC members’ crude oil in the international market. Thus, oil producing
countries began to sell oil at different prices: the posted prices, the official selling price and the buyback price.
Perhaps, these were highly influenced by the quality and destination of crude oil which propelled the demise of
OPEC administered price.
The collapse of the OPEC administered pricing system in 1986-1988 ushered in a new era in oil pricing in which
the power to set oil prices shifted from OPEC to the so called market (Fattouh, 2011). This transition was
propelled by the emergence of many suppliers with diverse quality of crude oil, outside the OPEC members
during the mid 1980s global recession. A major strategy was the undercutting of the OPEC price against the spot
price. This describes the ideal situation in which, crude oil pricing can be said to be determined by the forces
between supply and demand. This market determined price of crude oil has become the standard benchmark for
fixing or pegging crude oil price for oil exporting nations. In development planning, such mechanism translates
significantly in the budget processes of exporting countries given that the vagaries of oil production and
fluctuations in crude oil price affect the expected stream of revenue from the petroleum sector.
From, the above discussion, the spot 4 price (cash price), long term contract price 5 and arbitrarily market
determined crude price were variants of the pricing structures that emerged from the seemingly international
benchmarks of crude oil in the international market. However, within the market determined regime, different
kinds of benchmarking system are also discernible. These international benchmarks are based on the physical
component of the crude that influences the financial layer surrounding it. These classifications include Dubai
Asia method, Dated Brent for Europe and Africa, West Texas Intermediate (WTI)-American market option,
Argus Sour Crude (ASC)-SA, Kuwait and Iraq. For instance, Iraq uses Brent for its exports to Europe, a
combination of Oman and Dubai for its exports to Asia, and until recently, WTI for its exports for the US. In
2010, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq switched to the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI) for export destination.
Nigeria uses Dated Brent to Europe and Brent to the US. BRAVE is the weighted average of all futures price
quotations that arise for a given contract of the futures exchange during the trading day, with the weights being
the shares of the relevant volume of transactions on that day. Major oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait
and Iran use BRAVE as the basis of pricing crude exports to Europe. The various physical benchmarks are
influenced by varying degrees of factors ranging from the quality of crude oil, location and timing to the
destination of crude oil. Since physical benchmarks constitute the pricing basis of the large majority of physical
transactions, some observers claim that derivatives such as futures, forwards, option and swaps derive their
values from the price of these physical benchmarks (Fattouh, 2011).
Generally, oil prices are based on expectations on the behaviour and reactions of economic agents in the crude
oil market. For oil exporting countries that bases’ their revenue stream to domestic crude oil price projection, an
inquiry into the anatomy of crude oil pricing system reveals that different countries and regions may have
developed alternative crude oil benchmark prices for national economic policy and budget concerns. Nigeria as
oil exporting country has adopted the Moving Average method for benchmarking crude oil price in budget
planning.
3. Stylized Facts about Crude Oil Benchmark Price in the Nigerian Budgeting Process.
There is no doubt that the price and volume of crude oil sales bear an important nexus with the total revenue
generated by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN). Table 1 indicates that oil revenue shared over 99
percent, 78 percent and 73 percent of the total federal government revenue generate in 2004, 2007 and 2011,
respectively. The implication of this is that crude oil remains a critical variable in the fiscal operations and
4
A spot transaction is often thought of as a transaction in which oil is bought or sold at a price negotiated at the time of
agreement and for immediate delivery. It is the basis for buying and selling crude oil not covered by long term contractual
agreement and applies often to one off transactions (fattouh, 2011).
5
Long term contracts are negotiated bilaterally between buyers and sellers for the delivery of a series of oil shipment s over a
specified period of time, usually one or two years.
58
3. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
concerns of the Nigerian government. The relationship between total government projected revenue and oil
revenue is shown in Table 1.
Table 1: Government Revenue Profile: 2004-2012
Year
Total Revenue
(N)’billion
Oil Revenue
(N)’billion
Proportion of Oil
revenue to Total
Revenue.(%)
2004
1,059.66
1,059.00
99
2005
1,232.00
‘955.00
77
2006
1,462.00
1,131.00
77
2007
1,765.00
1,364.00
78
2008
1,544.00
1,069.00
69
2009
3,191.8
3,114.8
98
2010
6,769.33
4,902.33
72
2011
7,914.70
5,760.39
73
2012
9,144.55
6,403.40
70
Source: Various Issues of the Budget Office of the Federation Accompanying Documents.
The volume of crude oil sold at the prevailing oil market price is a veritable platform to understanding the flow
of totally collected oil revenue. However, the main issue of discourse here is to provide the relationship between
the international price of crude oil and the domestic projection of crude oil price benchmark for economic policy.
A look at the snapshots of Table 2 and Figure 1 show that domestic benchmark of crude oil price has been below
the international crude oil. The price differential as shown in Figure 1 indicates that 2006 and 2008, and 2011
and 2012 witnessed the widest variations due to the high uncertainty in the external market environment. This
provided platform for the establishment of the Excess Crude Account (ECA). A major puzzle is to seek answers
to how these price differentials were set and the possible implications in developing and evaluating an
accountable and efficient strategic budgeting model.
The principles and assumptions of the ECA portend some measure of complexities in the budgeting process
despite the objective of smoothening government fiscal actions at periods of economic perils. The argument is
that ECA has become a strategy to save for the future which formed the basis for establishing the Sovereign
Wealth Fund (SWF) rather than predicting oil price and market dynamics in a transparent manner. Nonetheless,
the Nigeria budget over the years have always accounted for budget deficits provisions while some proportion of
revenue stream is kept as markup in the ECA.
More fundamental is the assumptions underlying the pegging of crude oil price benchmark in the Nigerian
budgeting process. A cursory observation of Table 2 reveals that crude oil price benchmark in Nigeria has
considerably been based on Moving Average pricing framework among other concerns. This entails an average
of a crude oil price series over a fairly long period of time. The continuously observed wide variations between
the international crude oil price and the domestic oil price benchmark therefore invokes the need to re-examine
the principles and assumption of using moving average method in pegging the crude oil price benchmark.
Table 2: International Oil Price and Domestic Projection of Oil Price Benchmark
Year
Average International Crude
Crude Oil Price
Excess Crude Account
Oil Price $USD
Benchmark $USD
Component
36.05
23
13.05
2004
50.64
30
21.1
2005
61.08
33
33.4
2006
69.08
35
34.08
2007
94.45
59
35.45
2008
61.06
45.0
16.06
2009
77.45
60.00
17.45
2010
107.46
65
42.65
2011
110.11
71
39.11
2012
Source: OPEC (2012) and Various Issues of Budget Accompanying documents.
59
4. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
Figure 1: International Oil Price and Domestic Oil Benchmark in Nigeria.
Source: Author’s Compilation.
5. Moving Average Method as Operated in Nigeria
Meaning
Moving Average (MA) method is one of the methods used in making forecasting and prediction on the
behaviour of time series in applied economic analysis. The method involves taking the average of a long series
over the years to make projection about the future behaviour of the series. It smoothens out short-term
fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or circles. The basic principle is to take into cognizance, changes in
the error terms of the past and current value of the series to predict the future behavior of that series.
Moving Average is the dominant method used by the Federal Ministry of Finance/ Budget Office of the
Federation in making projection on crude oil price benchmark for budget analysis. The rationale as argued by the
BOF is to capture the long-term period of cyclical economic behaviours of crude oil price and to save some
amount of money to smoothen government fiscal concerns in time of economic peril. Following the surplus’
recorded in 2005 due to high unexpected rise in the price of crude oil, the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN)
created the Excess Crude Account (ECA). The ECA is the difference between the international crude oil price
and the domestic benchmark of crude oil amongst other considerations.
Assumptions of MA Model
The assumptions of MA are;
1.
It deals with fairly long term series for forecasting and prediction.
2.
It considers the past error term of the series as basis of the future trend of the series.
The mechanics of this model is to use the average/mean behaviour of the series and its current period to test as
against future projection of the series. The moving average model is specified as;
60
5. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
q
X t = µ + ε t ∑ θiε t −1
or
1
i =1
X t = µ + θ 0ut + θ1ut −1
Where, X t is the domestic projection of crude oil price over time and ut is the average mean of the series. The
parameters
θ1 ,..., θ q
are used to explain the behaviour of the past residuals in relation to the mean value of oil
price in the model, while
ε t , ε t −1 , ε t ≈ (0, σ 2 ) and ut −1 are the white noise error term.
The Nigeria budgeting framework which draws from this model is predicated on generalizing the average mean
of past crude oil price for a fairly long period of 10years. This is expected to smoothening cyclical behaviours of
the oil price and other macroeconomic variables that could influence crude price for the next fiscal year.
Challenges and Implications of Moving Average Method
A major challenge with this method lies in its inability to capture short-term cyclical fluctuations associated with
oil price movements which is the basis of the MTEF. Secondly, MA is weak in tracking or predicting future
volatile oil price. Third, for the essence of fiscal concern, the method could misdirect the principles of sharing
crude oil proceeds among other things. Thus, this attempt is made towards developing an alternative but
appropriate method for projecting oil price benchmark anchored on short-term cyclical movements of crude oil
price and other macroeconomic considerations.
Other Alternative Approaches
In macro-econometric analysis, there are other methods/models used for forecasting and measuring volatility in
time series. These include Trend Series/Regression, ARIMA, ARCH, GARCH and E-GARCH. Some of these
methods are suited for different kinds of series and analysis as discussed below.
Trend Regression
This is one of the methods used in determining what will happen to future economic time series based on the
history of the series. It is based on a regression analysis which helps to determine the linear trend factor that can
be used to make future prediction about the series. First, the mechanic of trend regression is applied to ascertain
whether a trend factor exist in the series. Second, such trend can be used to predict the future behaviour of the
series. The trend regression equation is specified as;
X t = α 0 + α1trend + ε t
2
Where X t , is the series to be predicted while α 0 and
α1 are
the coefficients.
εt ,
is the error term with an
assumption that it follows a white noise process as ε t ≈ (0, σ ) . The time or trend regression is mostly suited to
2
show the trend movement of the series. However, the trend regression may be better only for series that are less
volatile.
ARCH
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroschedasticity (ARCH) model developed by Engle (1982) is one of the
econometric models used for determining series behaviour over time. The ARCH model is specifically utilized
61
6. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
to measure volatility in economic and financial time series like stock prices, exchange tare and inflation rate. The
rationale is to capture the conditional variances of the error term. The main assumption of the ARCH model is
that most time series posses varying variance. This implies that volatile series possesses random walk which
poses challenge to forecasting or predicting the future behaviour of such series. Thus, ARCH model helps to
determine whether there is ARCH effect by first obtaining the mean of the equation as;
X t = β1 + β 2 X 2 + ..., β k X kt + ut
3
Assuming that conditional on available information at time (t-1), the disturbance term is distributed as;
ut =≈ N [0, (α 0 + α1ut2−1 )]
Where X t is the series, and
β1 , β 2
and
βk
are the parameters. The error term ut ≈ N (0, δ t ) is the white
2
noise which satisfies’s the normal assumption.
Thus, modeling volatility in series may be necessary to determining the future behaviour of that series. However,
a major shortcoming with the ARCH model is its limitation to determining whether the series is volatile (ARCH
effect) or not. Thus, ARCH models cannot simply predict the future of the series on its own.
GARCH
Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroschedasticity (GARCH) model is an extended ARCH model due
to Bollerslev (1986). GARCH is also an econometric model used to predict volatility in economic and financial
time series. The approach requires a joint estimation of the mean and variance of the equation. The mechanics of
GARCH requires that the current conditional variance depends on the past squared residuals of the process and
on the past conditional variances. The GARCH model can be specified as;
σ t2 = α 0 + α1ut2 + α t2−1
4
The main application of GARCH model is for measuring volatility in high frequency data. GARCH like ARCH
cannot be used for forecasting the future behaviour of a series. Although the discussed models can be applied in
testing different series, none of the models appear to be appropriate for forecasting the crude oil price. Thus,
analysis is extended to evaluate the popular ARIMA6 model advanced by Box and Jenkins (1970).
ARIMA Model
The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is one of the macro-econometric modeling and
forecasting methods used in econometric analysis. The method deals specifically with forecasting non-stationary
or weakly stationary series. Many economic time series are nonstationary such that they do not have a constant
mean and posses’ time varying covariances. Thus, parameter estimates or forecast of a series with this kind of
Data Generating Process (DGP) may not only be inefficient but could also yield misleading inferences. Although
6
The ARIMA method produces dynamic forecasts by including the lags of the variables and its error terms. It
can also be used for In-sample and Out-sample forecasts.
62
7. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
there are other predictive models, the ARIMA model involves forecasting or predicting a non-stationary series
like crude oil price over time.
It considers both the past values (autoregressive) and the mean residuals of the error term (moving average)
characteristic of the series. Its major improvement over MA is that it considers both the past and future cyclical
behaviours of economic variables in setting appropriate structure for forecasting and predicting time series like
crude oil price over time. The ARIMA model is also better when projecting for fairly short-term behaviours of
variables that are of concern to the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) in Nigeria.
Classical Assumptions of the ARIMA Model
The ARIMA model is anchored on the following assumptions:
a.
The model deals with very high time-varying series. Oil price assumes high level of volatility which
requires ARIMA model for forecasting.
b.
ARIMA model posses the ability to track changes of the time series. The MTEF is based on making
projection and considerations about the broad macroeconomic aggregates within a short term period.
c.
The ARIMA model is also better when projecting for short-term behaviours of time series.
Operational Mechanics of the ARIMA Model
In order to correct the shortcomings of the moving average method in budget analysis, the ARIMA model
developed by Box and Jenkins (BJ) is adopted in this study as an appropriate framework for forecasting crude oil
price. ARIMA model has two components: The Auto-Regressive and the Moving Average. The Moving
Average component captures the behaviours of the past residuals while the AR component deals with the past
values of the series.
The structure of the model is shown below.
The AR component of ARIMA is specified as;
p
X t = c + ∑ ϕi X t −1 + ε t
or
i =1
X t = ϕ1 X t −1 + ε t
5
Where, X is the lagged values of domestic crude oil price benchmark over the years. However, the Moving
Average component of the ARIMA model is captured in equation 1. Thus, integrating equation 1 and equation 5
gives the full specification of the ARIMA model as;
p
q
i =1
i =1
X t = c + ε t + ∑ ϕi X t −1 + ∑ θ iε t −1
or
6
X t = µ + ϕ1 X t −1 + θ 0ut + θ1ut −1
63
8. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
Equation 3 in the form of ARIMA (p, q) shows that the series is integrated of order AR (P) and MA (q). The
order of integration (I), represents the number of times, the series can be differenced to make it stationary.
Data Consideration
The model requires a fairly long time series. In econometric analysis, data range of about 30 points is required to
obtain an efficient estimate that could be used for better policy inferences. Our domestic crude oil price
benchmark is 8 years, hence, we employed the CEAR method to disaggregate the data into four quarter each to
forecast for the future (CEAR, 2010). Thus, more data points were generated for the analysis.
Testing the ARIMA Model
The BJ methodology has four steps in testing the ARIMA model. These are identification, estimation of the
model, diagnostic checking and forecasting.
1.
The identification process starts by testing for the stationary properties of the series. This is done by
analyzing the correlogram of the time series or carrying out a unit root test of the Augmented DickeyFuller Test and Philip-Peron to determine the order of integration. Thus, crude oil price benchmark over
the years would be subjected to stationarity tests.
2.
Estimation of the ARIMA model is then conducted using Ordinary Least Squares Method.
3.
Diagnostic checking of the model is performed to determine the nature of fitness of the results using
iterative process.
4.
Forecasting of the future series based on the outcome of the estimated model is then carried out. This is
expected to provide robust, efficient and appropriate basis for pegging oil price benchmark.
5.
Empirical Analyses.
Based on the procedures enumerated in the previous section, the results of the ARIMA model are presented and
discussed below.
Step 1: Unit Root Test
Three methods of checking the presence of unit roots in the domestic crude oil price benchmark were employed
for the analysis. These are the graphical analysis, the correlogram which deals with the simple Auto-Correlation
Function (ACF) and the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF), and the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test.
The results are presented below.
64
9. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
Figure2: The Trend of Domestic Crude Oil Price Benchmark
DCBK
70
60
50
40
30
20
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Author’s computation.
The graphical analysis in Figure 2 above shows that domestic crude oil price benchmark moved in a staggering
upward trajectory. This clearly indicates that the series is not stationary which suggest the presence of unit root
in the series. It is therefore concluded that the series is not stationary and can be utilized to carry out forecasting
using ARIMA.
Similarly, the result of the unit root test in domestic crude oil price benchmark based on the correlogram
approach with a pattern of 29 lag is shown in Table 3. The autocorrelation (ACF) started with a high value and
declined slowly, indicating that the series is not-stationary. More also, the Q-statistics at lag 29 has a probability
value of 0.000 which is smaller than 0.05%. This confirms that the series is non-stationary and must be
differenced for stationarity to occur in the series. Overall, the autocorrelation functions (ACF) of the residuals
which can also be used to test fitness of the regression suggest that the critical value of the probability is close to
one. In the nut shell, it is observed that none of the terms (spikes) is exterior to the confidence intervals and the
Q-statistics has a critical probability close to one. A classical import of these results is that the ARIMA model
performed well as an alternative method of forecasting a non-stationary series like the ad hoc domestic crude oil
price benchmark.
Furthermore, the unit root result of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test is shown in Table 4. The result
shows that the domestic crude oil price benchmark series is not statioanty at level. Thus, the series was
differenced and stationarity was achieved after the first difference. This further reinforces the fact that the series
possesses a unit root and can only be stationary after the first difference transformation. The overall economic
import of these is that the Domestic Crude Oil Price Benchmark (DCBK) possesses the feature of a series that
can be used for ARIMA forecasting.
65
10. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
Table 3. Result of the DCBK Correlogram
Autocorrelation
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
*****| . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. |**. |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
Partial Correlation
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
*****| . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
****| . |
. |* . |
. | . |
. | . |
.**| . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. |* . |
. | . |
. | . |
. | . |
. |**. |
. *| . |
. *| . |
. | . |
. |* . |
. *| . |
. *| . |
. *| . |
. | . |
. | . |
AC
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
PAC
0.009
0.007
0.008
-0.706
0.006
0.005
0.002
0.232
-0.009
-0.010
-0.015
0.056
-0.003
-0.004
0.021
-0.062
0.009
0.009
-0.016
0.009
-0.017
-0.018
-0.004
-0.002
-0.002
-0.001
-0.001
-0.002
-0.001
0.009
0.007
0.008
-0.706
0.043
0.033
0.030
-0.536
0.080
0.053
0.033
-0.209
0.039
0.009
0.041
0.109
-0.033
-0.054
0.006
0.224
-0.100
-0.104
-0.043
0.141
-0.111
-0.104
-0.073
-0.012
-0.062
Q-Stat
0.0025
0.0041
0.0061
18.389
18.391
18.392
18.392
20.749
20.753
20.757
20.768
20.934
20.934
20.935
20.963
21.225
21.231
21.238
21.261
21.269
21.301
21.339
21.342
21.342
21.343
21.343
21.344
21.345
21.345
Prob
0.938
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.004
0.008
0.014
0.022
0.034
0.051
0.074
0.096
0.130
0.170
0.215
0.266
0.320
0.377
0.438
0.500
0.560
0.618
0.673
0.724
0.770
Source: Author’s computation
Table 4: Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test result
Null Hypothesis: D(DCBK) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 2 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=2)
t-Statistic
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level
Prob.*
-3.937943
-3.689194
-2.971853
-2.625121
0.0055
Source: Author’s computation
Step 2: Result of the ARIMA Model
The result of the ARIMA test is presented in Table 5. The regression result indicates that the coefficients of the
model are statistically significant as revealed by the t-statistics and the probability values. The result indicates
that the coefficient of determination R2 of 64% well explain the goodness of the fit. The D.W. and F-statistics
provide evidence that the ARIMA test is well fitted. Table 5 suggests that crude oil price benchmarking in
66
11. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
Nigeria can be predicted based on ARIMA (1,1,4). This simply means autoregressive order AR (1) and MA (4).
The result below provides a classical and appropriate platform to perform forecasting of the future of price
benchmark.
Table 5: Result of the ARIMA Model
Dependent Variable: DDCBKSA
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/24/12 Time: 17:39
Sample (adjusted): 2005Q3 2012Q4
Included observations: 30 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 3 iterations
MA Backcast: 2004Q3 2005Q2
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
AR(1)
MA(4)
0.925456
-0.904682
0.086621
0.146677
10.95521
-6.266708
0.0000
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.641012
0.628191
1.674948
78.55262
-57.00673
2.141790
Inverted AR Roots
Inverted MA Roots
.95
.98
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
1.382125
2.746889
3.933782
4.027195
3.963665
.00+.98i
-.98
-.00-.98i
Source:Author’sComputation
Step 3: Diagnostic Checking
The procedure used in this ARIMA analysis follows the classical method of data smoothening through the
seasonalization of the data. Thus, various iteration processes was conducted to test for the adequacy and
reliability of the result. First, after stationarising the data, an appropriate ARMA (p, q) process was identified
using the correlogram Q-Statistics. Estimated models which fulfilled the criteria of p + q = 5 were considered
and compared. The model’s order of integration whose parameters were not significant at 5% confidence level
were rejected and dropped from the model.
The estimation technique began by modeling the conditional mean process through an autoregressive AR (1) and
moving average MA(1) to various orders with the validity of the model been determined by the behaviour of the
correlegramm of residual. Thus, the order of the model with the lowest value of Akaike Information Criterion
(AIC) and the Schwartz Information Criterion (SIC), appropriate Durbin Watson value is selected as the best fit.
The result revealed that AR(1) and MA(4), i.e. ARIMA (1,1, 4) could be the best forecasting standard for
domestic crude oil price benchmarking in the Nigerian budgeting process. Intuitively, AR (1) and MA (4) fall
into the MTEF and Fiscal Policy Strategy Paper of the Federal government.
Step 4: Forecasting
The result presented in Table 5 was further extended to forecast for the future crude oil price benchmark. This is
based on the procedures developed by Box and Jenkins for forecasting non- stationary time series using with the
ARIMA model. The 2012 fourth quarter of the seasonalized data was used as baseline for the 2013, while the
67
12. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
scaling factor was determined by the residuals generated from the regression result. The BJ ARIMA model
forecast shows that the 2013 domestic crude oil price benchmark is US$80 at the end of the fourth quarter. This
projection takes into consideration, the impacts of stochastic variables as well as the historical trend of the series
in the estimation. The result is shown in Table 6 while the procedure7 is presented in appendix 1.
Table 4: ARIMA Forecast Values of DCBK for 2013.
Year/Quarter
Future Value
2013 Q1
80.409
2013 Q2
81.850
2013 Q3
81.884
2013 Q4
80.945
Average Value
81.272
Source: Author’s Computation
Step 5: Counter-factual Evidence and Sensitivity Analysis
The Federal Ministry of Finance/BOF pegged the 2013 oil price benchmark at US$75 per barrel using 5-10 years
moving average method. This study carried out a counter-factual analysis to determine the validity of the
Moving Average Method against the ARIMA predictive model. The result is showed in Table 5. From the table,
the result indicates that using a 10-years moving average, crude oil benchmark would be US$70pb while a 9years moving average puts domestic crude oil price benchmark at US$75. However, when a moving average of
5–years was applied, domestic crude oil price benchmark would be US$90.
Table 5: Oil Price benchmark using MAM
Year/ MA Period
Future Value US$’
2013
5 years
US$ 90
2013
9 years
US$74.65
2013
10 years
US$70
Source: Author’s Computation
Analytical Procedure of the Moving Average Method
MA(t) = Y(1)+ Y(2)+ Y(3)+ Y(4)+ Y(5)+ Y(6)+ Y(7) +Y(8)+Y(9) +(10) ∕10
MA (10) = 29.04+ 36.05+50.64+61.08+69.08+94.45+61.06+77.45+107.46+110.11 / 10
MA (10) = 696.42/10 = 69.64
MA (9) = 36.05+50.64+61.08+69.08+94.45+61.06+77.45+107.46+110.11 / 9
MA (9) = 467.38 / 9
MA (9) = 74.15
MA (5) = 94.45+61.06+77.45+107.46+110.11 / 5
7
There are different ways of carrying out ARIMA forecast. Gujarati and Porter used the method below to
forecast US GDP as; Y2008 − I − Y2007 − IV = µ + β1u 2007 − IV + β 2 u 2007 − III + u 2008 − I . This method does not take care
of seasonality in data.
68
13. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
MA (5) = 450/ 5
MA (5) = 90.
From the evidence above, the 9-year moving average appears to be the value used to arrive at the 2013 budget.
This time horizon is close to the 10 years MA reported by the BOF. Nevertheless, the timing may not be able to
track the short-term cyclical behaviour of crude oil price dynamics. The 5-years moving average result which is
fairly within the 3-5year MTEF is conspicuously higher than the value predicted by the ARIMA model.
Although the BOF may have taken into consideration of the behaviour of exchange rate as well as other
macroeconomic and international developments in the oil market, MA is not a good forecasting method for
tracking short-term cyclical behaviour of crude oil price.
The principle of benchmarking crude oil price and the establishment of the ECA could be drawn from the typical
Milton Friedman Price Based Fiscal Rule which is aimed at smoothening future consumption may be a step in
the right direction but must be anchored in a transparent framework.
This paper argues that even though the US$75 per barrel is cautious, the process of arriving at it is faulty in one
hand while raising it to US$80 could generate more revenue to the government needed for capital expenditure
financing as well as reduce fiscal deficit in the 2013 budget on the other hand.
6.0 Policy Implication
Budget deficit and its financing has become a prominent feature of the Nigerian budgeting system. Deficit arises
due to short falls in the expected flow of revenue against government expenditure. Although the pegging of
crude oil price benchmark has also become a fiscal instrument of ensuring that government saves money against
uncertainties in the dynamic international crude oil market, benchmarking could have varying implications for
the economy. This argument relates to incurring budget deficit when revenue sources are not optimally patterned
or planned. Given that revenue projections are made based on the domestic benchmark of oil price, development
planning could be structured to take into account of flexible ways of improving revenue stream of the
government while efficient implementation could be a sufficient condition to ensuring that fiscal objectives are
realized.
The Moving Average method as operated in Nigeria seems not to be a systematic method of benchmarking. This
is because of the long term framework it assumes against the short-term dynamics of crude oil price movements.
Effective budgeting system must recognize or programme the short-term changes in oil price movement with
appropriate and reliable framework. The ARIMA model is one of the classical methods of forecasting short term
behaviours of random walk series like crude oil price. This method takes into account of the stochastic behaviour
of oil price to predict the future behaviour of the series as shown above.
The US$80 forecasted for the 2013 fiscal year illicit some implications. First, it could help the government to
generate more revenue and reduce fiscal deficit. Second, it could assist government in making realizable targets
for crude oil production. The leakages in the oil production or rather the short falls in projected oil production
have monumental impact on the economy. Government can target realistic price and modest projection of crude
oil production rather than being overly cautious in benchmark with unrealistic projected crude oil production.
Third, oil price is assuming some modest stability as the global economy growth is likely to continue its
improvement in the next fiscal year. Fourth, oil price changes follows a short term cycles in which the current
cycle may not end until 2014. Although the US$80 pb is fairly high, the scenarios above are likely sustain the
international crude oil price over and above this projected benchmark.
7.0 Conclusion and Recommendation
This study has endeavoured to examine the domestic crude oil price benchmarking method in the Nigerian
economic environment. The Budget Office of the Federation (BOF) applies Moving Average method as a model
for projecting or fixing domestic benchmark in budgeting. This method involves taking moving average of long
crude oil price series to fix for the next fiscal year amidst other considerations. However, crude oil price follows
a short term dynamics which makes the MA inappropriate for benchmarking oil price. This study reviewed the
MA and other forecasting methods with a view to determining the appropriate benchmarking model as well as
predicting the 2013 oil price benchmark.
The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method was found appropriate for forecasting the
non-stationary crude oil price benchmark in Nigeria. ARIMA (1,1,4) model offered the best order of integration
for predicting crude oil benchmark in Nigeria. The timing of the prediction is tune with the policy space of the
government MTEF and FSP. The result equally suggests US$80 per barrel (average) for the 2013 oil price
benchmark. The implication of this forecast is that government could generate more revenue and reduce fiscal
deficit with a modest projection of crude oil production. This study recommends that benchmarking of crude oil
69
14. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
should be based on the crude oil price fundamental to enhance predictability and promote macroeconomic
stability.
References.
Atoh, Loius (2012), Forecasting Unemployment Rates in Nigeria Using Univariate time series Models. Paper
Presented at the Nigerian Economics Society Conference, 29th August, Abuja.
Bollersleev, T. (1986), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, Journal of Econometrics,
31,307-27.
Box, G. and Jenkins, G. (1970), Distributions of Residual Autocorrelations in Autoregresive Integrated Moving
Average Models, Journal of the American statistical Association 65,1509-26.
Box, G. and Jenkins, G. (1976), Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, 2nd edn., Holden –Day, San
Francisco.
Brooks, Chris (2002), Introductory Econometrics for Finance, first edn., Cambridge, UK.
Budget Office of the Federation: Various editions of the Budget Accompanying Documents.
Duggan, Cathrine (2009), Nigeria: Opportunities in Crisis, Research Monograph, Harvard Business school, pp.124.
Engle, R.F. (1982), Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the variance of the United
Kingdom Inflation, Economterica 50(4), 987-1007.
Fattouh, Bassam (2011), An Anatomy of the Crude Oil Pricing System, The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Working Paper No. 40: 1-83.
Gujarati, D.N. and Porter, D.C. (2009), Basic Econometrics, fifth edn., McGraw-hill International Edition, New
York.
NISER (2012). A Policy Brief on the Excess Crude account and the Sovereign wealth Fund, Issue No. 2.
Nelson, N.D. (1991), Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach, Econometrica 59(2),
347-70.
Okogu, Bright (2012), Fundamentals of the 2013 Budget Proposal. A Presentation at the 2013 Budget Retreat for
Committees of the National Assembly.
OPEC, (2012), Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Oil Price Database.
Purna, C. (2012) Use of Univariate Time Series Model for Forecasting cement Productions in India,
International research Journal of Finance and Economics, 83: 167-179.
Sim, C. A. (1980) Macroeconomics and Reality, Econometrica, vol. 48: pp.1-48.
Procedures for Conducting ARIMA Forecasting
The steps used in conducting the ARMA forecast are stated below;
1. The disaggregation of annual domestic crude oil price benchmarks in to quarterly data.
2.
Seasonalization of the data to account for the seasonal behaviour of the data and obtain seasonal scale.
3.
Estimation of the ARIMA model to obtain
4.
Forecasting using the 2012 fourth quarter as baseline. The scales of the seasonal coefficients are used to
generate the AR while the residuals of the preceding four quarters of the baseline year are used as the
MA for the forecast period. This is shown as;
Quarter 1:
DCBK = 0.925472* AR(1) – 0.904689*MA(4)
DCBK = 0.925472*1.36181 - 0.904689*(-0.88434) = 2.0604
= 2.0604+78.21299 =80.273
Multiplying 80.273 by the SC (1.001695) = 80.409 the forecasted first quarter.
Quarter 2:
DCBK = 0.925472* AR (1) – 0.904689*MA(4)
DCBK = 0.925472*2.0603 - 0.904689*(0.47912) = 1.4733
= 1.4733 + 80.280 = 81.7013
(81.8823)
70
15. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
= Multiplying 81.7013 by SC 0.999607 = 81.850 the second quarter forecast.
Quarter 3:
DCBK = 0.925472* AR (1) – 0.904689*MA(4)
DCBK = 0.925472*1.4733 - 0.904689*1.59726 = -0.0815
= - 0.0815 + 81.669 = 81.5875
81.768
= Multiplying 81.5875 by SC 1.001427 = 81.884 the third quarter forecast
Quarter 4:
DCBK = 0.925472* AR(1) – 0.904689*MA(4)
DCBK = 0.925472*-0.0815- 0.904689* 0.70983 = -0.7176
= - 0.7176 + 81.703= 80.985
81.166
= Multiplying 80.985 by SC 0.997277 = 80.945 the fourth quarter forecast
Average Value: Q1 +Q2 + Q3+ Q4
= 80.409+81.850 +81.884 +80.945 = 325.088
Average Oil Price Benchmark for 2013 = 325.088/4= 81.272
Table 4: Forecast Values of DCBK for 2013.
Year/Quarter
Future Value
2013 Q1
80.280
2013 Q2
80.669
2013 Q3
80.735
2013 Q4
80.252
Average Value
80.484
Source: Author’s Computation
80.280+ 81.669+81.703+80.764 = 324.416/4 = 81.104
71
16. This academic article was published by The International Institute for Science,
Technology and Education (IISTE). The IISTE is a pioneer in the Open Access
Publishing service based in the U.S. and Europe. The aim of the institute is
Accelerating Global Knowledge Sharing.
More information about the publisher can be found in the IISTE’s homepage:
http://www.iiste.org
CALL FOR JOURNAL PAPERS
The IISTE is currently hosting more than 30 peer-reviewed academic journals and
collaborating with academic institutions around the world. There’s no deadline for
submission. Prospective authors of IISTE journals can find the submission
instruction on the following page: http://www.iiste.org/journals/
The IISTE
editorial team promises to the review and publish all the qualified submissions in a
fast manner. All the journals articles are available online to the readers all over the
world without financial, legal, or technical barriers other than those inseparable from
gaining access to the internet itself. Printed version of the journals is also available
upon request of readers and authors.
MORE RESOURCES
Book publication information: http://www.iiste.org/book/
Recent conferences: http://www.iiste.org/conference/
IISTE Knowledge Sharing Partners
EBSCO, Index Copernicus, Ulrich's Periodicals Directory, JournalTOCS, PKP Open
Archives Harvester, Bielefeld Academic Search Engine, Elektronische
Zeitschriftenbibliothek EZB, Open J-Gate, OCLC WorldCat, Universe Digtial
Library , NewJour, Google Scholar