This document summarizes a study that investigates the causal relationship between oil prices and stock prices in Pakistan, the United States, and Kuwait over a 5-year period. Regression and Granger causality tests were used to analyze the relationship between variables such as oil prices, stock prices, GDP, inflation, interest rates, and investment. The results found that rises in oil prices directly impact stock prices in the countries. Hypothesis tests confirmed there is an effect of oil prices on stock prices and that oil price increases cause stock prices to increase.
This study investigated the relationship between premium exchange rate and output growth in
African oil producing countries between 1995 to 2018 using panel Vector Error Correction as estimation
technique Data for the study were sourced from World Bank Development indicator data base, IMF online data
base and Central Banks of the selected countries
Globalization and liberalization puts the emphasis on exports as a technique in which developing countries like the Kingdom of Eswatini should adopt to expand their markets beyond their domestic market. For the developing countries to be international competitive in the global markets they need to minimize their production cost particularly on the products that are being exported. The production of most of the exported commodities needs lot energy from oil; hence there has been tremendous increase of oil and its by-product worldwide. The current oil demand for most countries in the world is not met because of insufficient reserves for crude oil in most countries. The Kingdom of Eswatini does not have an oil reserves or oil-refining facilities hence they depends on imports from the neighbouring states in order to meet the consumption requirement. The oil price shocks in the global market normally have adversely effects on various macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate since the oil is traded in US dollars. Oil and exchange rate are considered to be essential factors for domestic economies for developing countries like the Kingdom of Eswatini. The purpose of the study is to investigate the causal relationship between Lilangeni-dollar exchange rate and crude oil price by using the Toda-Yamamota approach. The study used daily time series from January 01st, 2005 to April 30th, 2018 of nominal exchange rate of Lilangeni (Eswatini currency [SZL]) vis-à-vis United States dollar (USD) data as well as the global price of Brent crude oil data that was used as a proxy for the Global crude oil price. The results from the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test revealed that there is a unidirectional causality from the global oil price to the Eswatini’s nominal exchange rate (SZL/USD). Hence the study concluded that the global crude oil price influence the Eswatini’s nominal exchange rate. Therefore the study recommends that in the formulating of Eswatini’s exchange rate policy emphases should be on the global oil prices in order not to misalign the Eswatini’s currency.
This paper examines the relationship between Saudi oil revenues and the Kingdom’s economic growth over the past 47 years. In analyzing the data that are needed for this analysis, problems were encountered with the basic real GDP and government oil revenue data that are typically used. The most widely-used measure of non-oil private sector activity that is available, the Non-Oil Private Institutional Sector GDP, does not include the Gross Value Added of all of the private activities, omitting over SAR 80 billion of real activity (in 2010 prices). A new series was constructed, consisting of all of the non-oil private activities, including the recently corporatized/privatized companies. In addition, the oil revenue data prior to 1987 were found to be unsatisfactory for use as published, due to their being based on the 354-355 day Hijra calendar. A new conversion methodology, based on a recently published paper by Qualls et al. (2017), was applied, and the pre-1987 data were converted to a consistent Gregorian basis with good results. The two series were determined to have a unit root of order one, with a highly significant long-run relationship. An error-correction model was then estimated, and highly significant short- and long-run relationships were found. A Ganger Causality test was performed, with the results confirming the ECM’s results, with real government oil revenue growth “Granger-causing” real private-sector GDP growth. Finally, the new non-oil activity GDP measure produced better results than did the traditionally-used Non-Oil Private Sector GDP.
The main objective of this study is to determine the impact of oil price volatility on macroeconomic variables and sustainable development in Nigeria. The significant role of oil in the Nigerian economy cannot be overestimated. Though there are studies by other researchers on oil prices and macroeconomic variables, their findings are contentious and country-specific. Our literature review and methodology shade lights on these positions. We used secondary time series data in a vector auto regression analysis. We found that fluctuations in oil prices do substantially affect the real GDP, exchange rates, Unemployment, Balance of payments and interest rates in Nigeria. Negative shocks in the international oil market, have significant impact on price fluctuations. Due to increased imports in the Nigerian economy, inflationary pressures are inevitable and are pronounced. Government revenues and expenditures have decreased significantly. We recommend diversification of the economy and energy sources for sustainable development in Nigeria.
This study investigated the relationship between premium exchange rate and output growth in
African oil producing countries between 1995 to 2018 using panel Vector Error Correction as estimation
technique Data for the study were sourced from World Bank Development indicator data base, IMF online data
base and Central Banks of the selected countries
Globalization and liberalization puts the emphasis on exports as a technique in which developing countries like the Kingdom of Eswatini should adopt to expand their markets beyond their domestic market. For the developing countries to be international competitive in the global markets they need to minimize their production cost particularly on the products that are being exported. The production of most of the exported commodities needs lot energy from oil; hence there has been tremendous increase of oil and its by-product worldwide. The current oil demand for most countries in the world is not met because of insufficient reserves for crude oil in most countries. The Kingdom of Eswatini does not have an oil reserves or oil-refining facilities hence they depends on imports from the neighbouring states in order to meet the consumption requirement. The oil price shocks in the global market normally have adversely effects on various macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate since the oil is traded in US dollars. Oil and exchange rate are considered to be essential factors for domestic economies for developing countries like the Kingdom of Eswatini. The purpose of the study is to investigate the causal relationship between Lilangeni-dollar exchange rate and crude oil price by using the Toda-Yamamota approach. The study used daily time series from January 01st, 2005 to April 30th, 2018 of nominal exchange rate of Lilangeni (Eswatini currency [SZL]) vis-à-vis United States dollar (USD) data as well as the global price of Brent crude oil data that was used as a proxy for the Global crude oil price. The results from the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test revealed that there is a unidirectional causality from the global oil price to the Eswatini’s nominal exchange rate (SZL/USD). Hence the study concluded that the global crude oil price influence the Eswatini’s nominal exchange rate. Therefore the study recommends that in the formulating of Eswatini’s exchange rate policy emphases should be on the global oil prices in order not to misalign the Eswatini’s currency.
This paper examines the relationship between Saudi oil revenues and the Kingdom’s economic growth over the past 47 years. In analyzing the data that are needed for this analysis, problems were encountered with the basic real GDP and government oil revenue data that are typically used. The most widely-used measure of non-oil private sector activity that is available, the Non-Oil Private Institutional Sector GDP, does not include the Gross Value Added of all of the private activities, omitting over SAR 80 billion of real activity (in 2010 prices). A new series was constructed, consisting of all of the non-oil private activities, including the recently corporatized/privatized companies. In addition, the oil revenue data prior to 1987 were found to be unsatisfactory for use as published, due to their being based on the 354-355 day Hijra calendar. A new conversion methodology, based on a recently published paper by Qualls et al. (2017), was applied, and the pre-1987 data were converted to a consistent Gregorian basis with good results. The two series were determined to have a unit root of order one, with a highly significant long-run relationship. An error-correction model was then estimated, and highly significant short- and long-run relationships were found. A Ganger Causality test was performed, with the results confirming the ECM’s results, with real government oil revenue growth “Granger-causing” real private-sector GDP growth. Finally, the new non-oil activity GDP measure produced better results than did the traditionally-used Non-Oil Private Sector GDP.
The main objective of this study is to determine the impact of oil price volatility on macroeconomic variables and sustainable development in Nigeria. The significant role of oil in the Nigerian economy cannot be overestimated. Though there are studies by other researchers on oil prices and macroeconomic variables, their findings are contentious and country-specific. Our literature review and methodology shade lights on these positions. We used secondary time series data in a vector auto regression analysis. We found that fluctuations in oil prices do substantially affect the real GDP, exchange rates, Unemployment, Balance of payments and interest rates in Nigeria. Negative shocks in the international oil market, have significant impact on price fluctuations. Due to increased imports in the Nigerian economy, inflationary pressures are inevitable and are pronounced. Government revenues and expenditures have decreased significantly. We recommend diversification of the economy and energy sources for sustainable development in Nigeria.
A research project on devaluation of currency in Pakistan. Pakistan being a developing country, its economy gets affected by the rise and fall of Pakistani currency against dollar. During the time of Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz in power dollar was stable for 60 rupee. When the government changed Pakistani currency immediately fell seven rupee against dollar. Since then Pakistani currency is falling and nowadays the value is 104 and the speculation is that it will keep on falling. The devaluation of currency has a direct impact on local Pakistan traders. Foreign trade such as eatable oil, raw materials, petroleum and electronics gets expensive. This creates problems for the traders. Pakistan imports 80 percent of petroleum for its consumption. According to the Former Finance Minister Dr. Salman Shah, Pakistan spends 13 billion dollar on imports of crude oil and eatable oil. This provides a boost for domestic demands as exports become cheaper and more competitive to foreign buyers. Higher level of exports should lead to an improvement in the current account deficit. This was important in the case of the UK who had a large current account deficit of over 3% of GDP in 2008. Higher exports and aggregate demand can lead to higher rates of economic growth. Deficit financing, economic instability and money supply are the factors that influence our independent variable.
American Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development is indexed, refereed and peer-reviewed journal, which is designed to publish research articles.
This paper provides an overview of inflation developments in Vietnam in the years following the doi moi reforms, and uses empirical analysis to answer two key questions: (i)
what are the key drivers of inflation in Vietnam, and what role does monetary policy play? and (ii) why has inflation in Vietnam been persistently higher than in most other emerging market economies in the region? It focuses on understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Vietnam, and in understanding the extent to which monetary policy can explain why inflation in Vietnam has been higher than in other Asian emerging markets over the past decade.
The Causal Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Output Gap in T...inventionjournals
The purpose of the paper is to study dynamic relationships between the inflation and output gap by using Granger causality, Impulse response and variance decompositions analysis within VECM framework for the quarterly data over the first period of 2003 and second period of 2016. The results of the study indicate that the output gap Granger cause the inflation in Turkey both in short-and long-runs. Also, sign of the causality is negative and same causal relationships between two variables hold beyond the sample period. The results should be taken as an evidence of the conclusion that the output gap has important implications for the CBRT's monetary policy.
This study assesses the effect of world oil price shocks on Uganda’s official development assis-tance using Structural Vector Autoregressive Model (SVAR). The results in this study show in-significant pass-through effect of world oil price shocks to Uganda’s Official Development As-sistance received in the period under the study. The policy implication in this study is that Offi-cial Development Assistance received by Uganda is independent of world oil price shocks.
An Evaluation of the Impact of Fluctuating Oil Revenue and the Performance of...Triple A Research Journal
ABSTRACT
The up and down movement in the price of crude oil in recent years has led to increasing concern about its macroeconomic implications for the Nigerian economy as economic planning has become very uncertain given the fact that the economy is highly vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. It is with this view in mind that this paper empirically analyses the impact of fluctuating oil revenue and the performance of the Nigerian economy between 1999 to 2016 (a seventeen years period of democratic governance), using secondary data sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and World Bank Development Indicators with VAR econometric tools of analysis. After appropriate stationary and robustness checks, the study finds out that oil price shocks (proxy for oil revenue) retards economic growth as it has a negative relationship with economic growth. An interesting outcome from the VAR Block Exogeneity Test is the unidirectional causality running from Oil Revenue to Real Gross Domestic Product (economic growth) which reveals the fact that during the years under reference, proceeds from oil export were mainly responsible for the level of astronomical growth recorded in the economy. The study concludes that oil price fluctuation paints an unstable future for the Nigerian economy because macroeconomic variables like employment, interest rate and price stability become victims. Both fiscal and monetary tools are frequently revised to keep the system afloat during price shocks. Nigeria remains a victim of these policy shocks because of overdependence on oil export earnings. A major policy recommendation is the need for policy makers to concentrate on policies that will strengthen and stabilize the macroeconomic structure of the Nigerian economy with specific focus on alternative sources of government revenue (reduction of dependence on oil proceeds) and reduction in monetization of crude oil receipts (fiscal discipline).
Keywords: Oil shocks, Economic Growth, VAR, ECM, Granger Causality
The study gauged the influence of exchange rate fluctuations on the Performance of the Nigerian Economy over the time from of 1986 to 2016, utilizing secondary data tracked from the statistical report of the Apex Nigerian bank, and utilizing techniques such as Unit root test, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Impulse-Response Output and Variance-Decomposition Test to evaluate variables such as Interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate against a sole indicator of Economic Performance I.e. Gross Domestic Product Growth rate (GDPGR), it was discovered that despite the short run influx of the spill over volatility of Interest rate and inflation rate, there exist no long run volatility influence of interest rate on Economic Performance in Nigeria. It was therefore recommended that the apex financial institution and relevant policy makers should ensure an interest rate system and status that could stimulate growth or production and the nation should endeavour to utilize her interest rate in controlling its output level as it motivates Economic Performance (GDPGR).
This year's SITE Energy Day was devoted to discussing the consequences of oil price fluctuations for markets and actors of the economy. The half-day conference engaged policy-oriented scholars and experts from the business community to discuss the impact of oil price fluctuations on macro fundamentals, international trade, strategies of oil cartels, strategic risk management, and opportunities for change in energy systems.
Torbjörn Becker, Director of SITE, gave a talk "The volatility of oil price forecasts and its macroeconomic implications"
For more information and research analysis please visit: www.hhs.se/site
An Investigation of Crude Oil and its Implication for Financial Markets Priesnell Warren ✔
This research paper seeks to unearth the possible repercussions of fluctuations in Crude Oil markets and how they will affect global trade and financial markets. Crude oil or Black Gold is one of the world’s most precious commodities as its change in price affects the entire economy.
Understanding Attitudes towards Gasoline Import Demand in Viet NamIOSRJBM
Even with its vast reserves of oil and gas potential, the government has put this fuel resource the top of priority sectors for development, as it views as central to national economic growth as well as energy security, Viet Nam has remained a net importer of petroleum products over the past eight years. On another word, Gasoline importation has been a superior absorbability on the economy of Viet Nam, the determinants of the refined oil products imported activities analysis have been found no study yet. This paper aims to suggest the leading factors affecting import demand performances for petroleum products. The autoregressive distributed lag modelling framework (ARDL) have applied to this research; we estimated various short-run and long-run import demand models for Gasoline using time series study over the period 1995-2015. The results showed that the application of gas is stable prices in both the long and short term. Other principal operators of gas import probably are the real effective exchange rate, domestic petroleum production, and population growth. Moreover, a real economic activity found the most active and influential driver of gasoline demand accordance with the inelastic and elastic coefficients estimated in the short-run and long-run, respectively.
Despite credit market turbulence and slowing activity in many major advanced economies, oil prices have been reaching record highs in recent months. Besides oil-specific factors, such as geopolitical risks and speculations, the current price boom is driven by demand and supply forces that reinforce each other amid supportive financial conditions. This paper aims to a link macroeconomic variables together with oil prices in order to provide complement decision tools used by commercial and investment banks when optimizing their investment portfolios. For that reason, we apply financial programming model with incorporated oil price variable. We show that oil prices affect private consumption, gross domestic product, inflation, and imports. On the other hand, we also investigate effects of macroeconomic variables on oil market equilibrium. A decrease in oil supply as well as depreciation of the US$ lead to higher oil prices, which in turn decrease private consumption and output, but as well stimulate inflationary pressures. Empirical test is performed on the basis of quarterly US data from 2001 to 2007. Although financial programming models are subject to limitations and empirical implications are difficult to apply, some general relations between selected macroeconomic variables and oil price can be determined.
Impact Analysis of Petroluem Product Price Changes on Households’ Welfare in ...inventionjournals
This paper examines the impact of petroleum products price changes on household welfare in Zaria metropolis of Kaduna state. Respondents communities were stratified selected base on their geographical locations. Descriptive statistics and inferential statistics tools were employed and use for data analysis. Descriptive statistics was used to analyze socio economic characteristics of household head and to determine the price changes of petroleum products on households. while inferential statistical tools was employed to specifically show how price changes of petroleum products affect the household through increase in prices of petroleum products which causes decrease in demand for the products, and also have multiplier effect on goods and services. On the other hand, decrease in prices of petroleum products also increase the demand for the products in Zaria metropolis. To achieved this objective, non parametric chi-square test was employed. The results shows that, the three petroleum products that is, petrol (PMS), gas (LPG) and kerosene (DPK) of the study have an impact on household welfare. This indicated that increase in the petroleum products price changes causes decrease in demand of the products, while on the other hand the decrease of the petroleum products prices causes increase in demand for the products which was in conformity with the demand theory that was adopted in this study. The study also recommends, government should deregulate the downstream petroleum sector to allow for increase participation and competition which will alternatively result in reducing prices of petroleum products Moreover, emphasis on alternative sources of energy such as gas, solar, wind and hydraulic sources should put into consideration. Government should expanded consumption capacity effect which will translate to increased demand for varied consumer good and hence increased sales and profitability of a number of Nigerians
A research project on devaluation of currency in Pakistan. Pakistan being a developing country, its economy gets affected by the rise and fall of Pakistani currency against dollar. During the time of Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz in power dollar was stable for 60 rupee. When the government changed Pakistani currency immediately fell seven rupee against dollar. Since then Pakistani currency is falling and nowadays the value is 104 and the speculation is that it will keep on falling. The devaluation of currency has a direct impact on local Pakistan traders. Foreign trade such as eatable oil, raw materials, petroleum and electronics gets expensive. This creates problems for the traders. Pakistan imports 80 percent of petroleum for its consumption. According to the Former Finance Minister Dr. Salman Shah, Pakistan spends 13 billion dollar on imports of crude oil and eatable oil. This provides a boost for domestic demands as exports become cheaper and more competitive to foreign buyers. Higher level of exports should lead to an improvement in the current account deficit. This was important in the case of the UK who had a large current account deficit of over 3% of GDP in 2008. Higher exports and aggregate demand can lead to higher rates of economic growth. Deficit financing, economic instability and money supply are the factors that influence our independent variable.
American Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development is indexed, refereed and peer-reviewed journal, which is designed to publish research articles.
This paper provides an overview of inflation developments in Vietnam in the years following the doi moi reforms, and uses empirical analysis to answer two key questions: (i)
what are the key drivers of inflation in Vietnam, and what role does monetary policy play? and (ii) why has inflation in Vietnam been persistently higher than in most other emerging market economies in the region? It focuses on understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Vietnam, and in understanding the extent to which monetary policy can explain why inflation in Vietnam has been higher than in other Asian emerging markets over the past decade.
The Causal Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Output Gap in T...inventionjournals
The purpose of the paper is to study dynamic relationships between the inflation and output gap by using Granger causality, Impulse response and variance decompositions analysis within VECM framework for the quarterly data over the first period of 2003 and second period of 2016. The results of the study indicate that the output gap Granger cause the inflation in Turkey both in short-and long-runs. Also, sign of the causality is negative and same causal relationships between two variables hold beyond the sample period. The results should be taken as an evidence of the conclusion that the output gap has important implications for the CBRT's monetary policy.
This study assesses the effect of world oil price shocks on Uganda’s official development assis-tance using Structural Vector Autoregressive Model (SVAR). The results in this study show in-significant pass-through effect of world oil price shocks to Uganda’s Official Development As-sistance received in the period under the study. The policy implication in this study is that Offi-cial Development Assistance received by Uganda is independent of world oil price shocks.
An Evaluation of the Impact of Fluctuating Oil Revenue and the Performance of...Triple A Research Journal
ABSTRACT
The up and down movement in the price of crude oil in recent years has led to increasing concern about its macroeconomic implications for the Nigerian economy as economic planning has become very uncertain given the fact that the economy is highly vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. It is with this view in mind that this paper empirically analyses the impact of fluctuating oil revenue and the performance of the Nigerian economy between 1999 to 2016 (a seventeen years period of democratic governance), using secondary data sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and World Bank Development Indicators with VAR econometric tools of analysis. After appropriate stationary and robustness checks, the study finds out that oil price shocks (proxy for oil revenue) retards economic growth as it has a negative relationship with economic growth. An interesting outcome from the VAR Block Exogeneity Test is the unidirectional causality running from Oil Revenue to Real Gross Domestic Product (economic growth) which reveals the fact that during the years under reference, proceeds from oil export were mainly responsible for the level of astronomical growth recorded in the economy. The study concludes that oil price fluctuation paints an unstable future for the Nigerian economy because macroeconomic variables like employment, interest rate and price stability become victims. Both fiscal and monetary tools are frequently revised to keep the system afloat during price shocks. Nigeria remains a victim of these policy shocks because of overdependence on oil export earnings. A major policy recommendation is the need for policy makers to concentrate on policies that will strengthen and stabilize the macroeconomic structure of the Nigerian economy with specific focus on alternative sources of government revenue (reduction of dependence on oil proceeds) and reduction in monetization of crude oil receipts (fiscal discipline).
Keywords: Oil shocks, Economic Growth, VAR, ECM, Granger Causality
The study gauged the influence of exchange rate fluctuations on the Performance of the Nigerian Economy over the time from of 1986 to 2016, utilizing secondary data tracked from the statistical report of the Apex Nigerian bank, and utilizing techniques such as Unit root test, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Impulse-Response Output and Variance-Decomposition Test to evaluate variables such as Interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate against a sole indicator of Economic Performance I.e. Gross Domestic Product Growth rate (GDPGR), it was discovered that despite the short run influx of the spill over volatility of Interest rate and inflation rate, there exist no long run volatility influence of interest rate on Economic Performance in Nigeria. It was therefore recommended that the apex financial institution and relevant policy makers should ensure an interest rate system and status that could stimulate growth or production and the nation should endeavour to utilize her interest rate in controlling its output level as it motivates Economic Performance (GDPGR).
This year's SITE Energy Day was devoted to discussing the consequences of oil price fluctuations for markets and actors of the economy. The half-day conference engaged policy-oriented scholars and experts from the business community to discuss the impact of oil price fluctuations on macro fundamentals, international trade, strategies of oil cartels, strategic risk management, and opportunities for change in energy systems.
Torbjörn Becker, Director of SITE, gave a talk "The volatility of oil price forecasts and its macroeconomic implications"
For more information and research analysis please visit: www.hhs.se/site
An Investigation of Crude Oil and its Implication for Financial Markets Priesnell Warren ✔
This research paper seeks to unearth the possible repercussions of fluctuations in Crude Oil markets and how they will affect global trade and financial markets. Crude oil or Black Gold is one of the world’s most precious commodities as its change in price affects the entire economy.
Understanding Attitudes towards Gasoline Import Demand in Viet NamIOSRJBM
Even with its vast reserves of oil and gas potential, the government has put this fuel resource the top of priority sectors for development, as it views as central to national economic growth as well as energy security, Viet Nam has remained a net importer of petroleum products over the past eight years. On another word, Gasoline importation has been a superior absorbability on the economy of Viet Nam, the determinants of the refined oil products imported activities analysis have been found no study yet. This paper aims to suggest the leading factors affecting import demand performances for petroleum products. The autoregressive distributed lag modelling framework (ARDL) have applied to this research; we estimated various short-run and long-run import demand models for Gasoline using time series study over the period 1995-2015. The results showed that the application of gas is stable prices in both the long and short term. Other principal operators of gas import probably are the real effective exchange rate, domestic petroleum production, and population growth. Moreover, a real economic activity found the most active and influential driver of gasoline demand accordance with the inelastic and elastic coefficients estimated in the short-run and long-run, respectively.
Despite credit market turbulence and slowing activity in many major advanced economies, oil prices have been reaching record highs in recent months. Besides oil-specific factors, such as geopolitical risks and speculations, the current price boom is driven by demand and supply forces that reinforce each other amid supportive financial conditions. This paper aims to a link macroeconomic variables together with oil prices in order to provide complement decision tools used by commercial and investment banks when optimizing their investment portfolios. For that reason, we apply financial programming model with incorporated oil price variable. We show that oil prices affect private consumption, gross domestic product, inflation, and imports. On the other hand, we also investigate effects of macroeconomic variables on oil market equilibrium. A decrease in oil supply as well as depreciation of the US$ lead to higher oil prices, which in turn decrease private consumption and output, but as well stimulate inflationary pressures. Empirical test is performed on the basis of quarterly US data from 2001 to 2007. Although financial programming models are subject to limitations and empirical implications are difficult to apply, some general relations between selected macroeconomic variables and oil price can be determined.
Impact Analysis of Petroluem Product Price Changes on Households’ Welfare in ...inventionjournals
This paper examines the impact of petroleum products price changes on household welfare in Zaria metropolis of Kaduna state. Respondents communities were stratified selected base on their geographical locations. Descriptive statistics and inferential statistics tools were employed and use for data analysis. Descriptive statistics was used to analyze socio economic characteristics of household head and to determine the price changes of petroleum products on households. while inferential statistical tools was employed to specifically show how price changes of petroleum products affect the household through increase in prices of petroleum products which causes decrease in demand for the products, and also have multiplier effect on goods and services. On the other hand, decrease in prices of petroleum products also increase the demand for the products in Zaria metropolis. To achieved this objective, non parametric chi-square test was employed. The results shows that, the three petroleum products that is, petrol (PMS), gas (LPG) and kerosene (DPK) of the study have an impact on household welfare. This indicated that increase in the petroleum products price changes causes decrease in demand of the products, while on the other hand the decrease of the petroleum products prices causes increase in demand for the products which was in conformity with the demand theory that was adopted in this study. The study also recommends, government should deregulate the downstream petroleum sector to allow for increase participation and competition which will alternatively result in reducing prices of petroleum products Moreover, emphasis on alternative sources of energy such as gas, solar, wind and hydraulic sources should put into consideration. Government should expanded consumption capacity effect which will translate to increased demand for varied consumer good and hence increased sales and profitability of a number of Nigerians
American Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development is indexed, refereed and peer-reviewed journal, which is designed to publish research articles.
The Impact of Oil Price on Economic Development of Kurdistan Region of Iraq f...IJAEMSJORNAL
Kurdistan region of Iraq signifies a great case study to investigate the impact of oil price, for the reason that most of its producing reliance on exporting crude oil KRG is one of the main oil exporting regions. Usually, the national revenue relies on crude oil revenue in KRG comprises a great percentage of Kurdistan region of Iraqi government’s budget and also KRG’s economy can be impact by would economic during economic difficulties. Consequently, growing oil crude oil price can influence on economic development in Kurdistan region of Iraq. Therefore, it is important to utilize other resource instead of oil income as a different approach to increase region’s income. The key objective of this article is to investigate the impacts of oil price and oil production value on economic development. Annual growth rate, compound growth rate and correlation coefficient can be utilized to estimate of the data. The findings revealed that an economic development is one of the most significant sources of economic transformation since it reproduces the society's capability to rise productive volume and ideal investment and likewise sustainability obligation comprises an expanded economy on the face of shocks, dynamically implements technology and head accumulation human money, competitively can increase comparative advantages compared to the other. Consequently, it operates within steady, balanced economic strategies and economic growth and there was positively statistically significance between oil price and GDP, oil production value and GDP.
Long Run Impact of Exchange Rate on Nigeria’s Industrial Outputiosrjce
While many scholars have carried out a lot of research on the impact of exchange rate volatility and
price shocks on economic growth, this study departs from previous studies and seeks to provide suggestions for
Nigerian policy makers on the attainment of an ideal exchange rate necessary to boost industrialization and
industrial output. The economies of all the countries of the world are linked directly or indirectly through asset
and goods markets. This linkage is made possible through trade and foreign exchange. The price of foreign
currencies in terms of a local currency (i.e. foreign exchange) is therefore important to the understanding of the
growth trajectory of all countries of the world. The consequences of substantial misalignments of exchange rates
can lead to output contraction and extensive economic hardship. These therefore, bring up the issue of an ideal
exchange rate necessary for the achievement of a set of diverse objectives - economic growth, containment of
inflation and maintenance of external competiveness. This study employed the use of the ordinary least square
technique to examine the impact of exchange rate stability on industry output in Nigeria using annual time
series data from 1980 to 2013. The result of the study showed that domestic capital, foreign direct investment,
population growth rate, and real exchange rate were significant determinants of industrial output. The changes
in external balance and inflation were of little or no consequences to industrial output. Based on the findings,
the researcher recommended that conscious efforts should be made by government to fine-tune the various
macroeconomic variables in order to provide an enabling environment that stimulates industrial output and
eventual economic growth.
Determinants Factors of Stock Price in Oil and Gas Sector (Indonesia Stock Ex...Mercu Buana University
The purpose of this study is to examine the factors that affect the stock prices of oil and gas subsector companies (oil and gas). These factors are Oil Price, Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), and Exchange Rate. The research design used is comparative causal research. Sampling in this research is done by using purposive sampling method technique. The analysis technique used is panel data regression analysis. The result of the study by using f-statistic test shows that the variable of Oil Price, DER and Exchange Rate simultaneously have a significant effect on Stock Price. While the result of the t-statistic test shows that the variable of Oil Price has a significant positive impact, while DER and Exchange Rate have a significant negative effect to a stock price of oil and gas listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2011-2016.
The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of inflation in West Africa, mainly in the WAEMU zone, in order to contribute to improving the conduct of monetary policy. The equation of the exchange of the Quantitative Theory of the Currency and the generalized method of moments (MMG) in dynamic panel is used. Annual data concerning six countries in West Africa and range from 1991 to 2015. The results of the estimation show that in addition to the economic growth rate and the money supply, the devaluation has a significant effect on inflation. As we can see, inflation is not systematically a monetary phenomenon in West Africa. The authorities must therefore seek to determine the optimal threshold for the rate of increase of the money supply.
Similar to Cause & effect relationshipt research paper qta -kashif ahmed saeed (20)
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
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Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Cause & effect relationshipt research paper qta -kashif ahmed saeed
1. Name of Journal
Issue 023(07)/2012 ISSN: XXXX-XXXX
Quantitative Technique in Analysis using Econometrics
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An investigation of cause and effect relationship between oil and stock prices
Muhammad Imtiaz Subhani 1, Kashif Ahmed Saeed 2, Mohammad Zeeshan3,
Mohammad Obaid4, Yaqoot Zehra 5 Qurat-ul-ain6
1 Iqra University Research Center -IURC, Karachi- Pakistan
2 Iqra University Research Center -IURC, Karachi- Pakistan
3 Iqra University Research Center -IURC, Karachi- Pakistan
4 Iqra University Research Center -IURC, Karachi- Pakistan
5 Iqra University Research Center -IURC, Karachi- Pakistan
6 Iqra University Research Center -IURC, Karachi- Pakistan
Abstract. The objective of this study is to investigate the cause and effect relationship
between oil and stock prices of Pakistan, United states and Kuwait. The present study
examines how rise in price of crude oil supplied for economic consumption in a country
effect to the stock prices similarly how rise in stock prices in a country impact to crude
oil prices and consumption, and what kind of relationship exists between oil and stock
prices. The study is done by taking last 05 years data available for Pakistan, United states
and Kuwait’s economic indicators. Results revealed that rise in oil prices impact in
directly proportion to stock prices of the country.
Key Words: oil prices, stock prices, inflation, Investment.
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Quantitative Technique in Analysis using Econometrics
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1 Introduction
Trend of global business is changing the nature of entire financial system almost all major entities are
interlinked now like commodities, stock and forex all the said markets have now correlation that can be
used smart business geeks in forecasting, now a days stock prices are going sky high as its a general
perception that whenever oil prices increases US$ gets down gradually may be due to negative correlation
Stock and Oil prices are supposed to be the basic parameter in financial trading along with forex rates
which more or less work on the same mechanics,
Our research is based on causes of oil prices and their effects on stock prices and similarly causes of
stock prices and their effects on oil prices for the economy
Individual’s wellbeing is the top most priority for every democratic state. Economy of an individual is as
important as the economy as whole. Since the advent of human history, the individual needs, be it of any
kind, are always be the great interest of human being. A proper source of employment can help to rid-off
from this devastating situation. It is irrefutable that the world is continuously changing. The shift from
the feudal to industrial society and the due importance of finance, individual needs are raised to a visible
extent. In Pakistan, due to enormous rise in population, unemployment and resource constraints, the
individual finances have been badly affected in recent time.
Pakistan with a population of more than 150 million has been on the path of rising GDP growth in
the last couple of years, but since the last fiscal year the situation is not very sound. The continuous rise in
oil prices in the last few years is regarded as one of the contributory factor. Energy sector has a direct
link with the economic development of a country. In line with the rising growth rate of GDP, demand for
energy has also grown rapidly. The magnitude by which economies are hurt as a result of price shock
depends on the share of cost of oil in national income, the degree of dependence on imported oil and the
ability of end-users to reduce their consumption and switch away from oil. In the energy mix for the
year 2005-06, oil accounts for 32 percent of the total energy used in Pakistan. Although the intensity with
which oil is used in total energy consumption has declined in the last few years but still it is the second
largest source of energy used after natural gas, which accounts for 39 percent. As far as the energy
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Quantitative Technique in Analysis using Econometrics
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intensity is concerned it has remained almost constant since 1990-91 (i.e., 1 %). Decrease in energy
intensity is considered as the most promising route for reducing vulnerability to oil shocks.
With oil being the second largest source of energy used along with almost a constant rate of its production
Pakistan is heavily dependent on oil imports from Middle East exporters (Saudi Arab playing the lead
role). Almost 82% of the demand for petroleum products in the country is met through imports2. Pakistan
spent about 44 percent of export earnings on oil imports in 2006-07. This percentage was only 27 percent
in 2004-05. Therefore, the international oil price fluctuations have a direct bearing on the macroeconomy
of the country, especially on the oil price GDP relationship. The share of net oil imports in GDP is an
index of the relative importance of the oil price rise to the economy in terms of the potential adjustments
needed to offset it.
The goal in this paper is to shed light on the nature of the impact of oil shocks on the macroeconomic
conditions of a country. This research will analyze the impact of oil price on the output growth of the
country along with the monetary policy function on the presumption that State Bank has pursued inflation
targeting and conducts monetary policy to maintain price stability and output growth. Secondly, this study
will examine the cause and effect relationship between oil prices and stock prices.
2 Monetary policy
Central banks are responsible to implement a country's chosen monetary policy. Establishing what form
of currency needs to be implemented in the country. This is the most basic level of activity by Central
Bank.
A central bank may also use help from another country as their currency either directly (in a currency
union), or indirectly (a currency board). In countries with fiat money, expression "monetary policy" may
mention more closely to the interest-rate targets and other active actions commenced by the monetary
authority.
Goals of Monetary Policy:
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Quantitative Technique in Analysis using Econometrics
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Price Stability: Unanticipated inflation leads to lender losses. Immaterial agreements attempt to
interpretation for inflation. Effort will be successful if monetary policy able to maintain steady
rate of inflation.
High Employment: Frictional unemployment is refers to as the movement of workers between
jobs or workers swapping various jobs. Apart from frictional unemployment, other
unemployment is classified as unintended unemployment. By targeting macroeconomic policy,
reduction in his area can be achieved.
Economic Growth: Economic growth is enhanced by conjecture in scientific developments in
production. Supporting savings supplies funds can be drawn upon for investment.
Interest Rate Stability: Interest Rate Stability refers to as unstable attention and exchange rates
which generate costs to lenders and borrowers. This leads to unexpected changes which cause
impairment, making policy preparation difficult.
The monetary cause includes Money supply and Money demand.
If Money demand (Md) increase, the overall price (P) increase results in lower down the Investment (I)
and higher interest rate (r ) so the aggregate expenditures (AE) will go down causes the lower level of
output/Income.
3 Research Problem
Impact of oil prices to stock index prices and vice versa in economic growth, this study includes the
variable like GDP, Growth, Oil price, stock index and Interest rate.
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Quantitative Technique in Analysis using Econometrics
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Literature Review
Akhtam,Maghyereh (2004) found dynamic linkages between crude oil price shocks and stock market
return in 22 emerging economies.
Oil prices plays a vital role in economy it’s a commodity which is supposed to be the energy engine of
economy. one would expect changes in oil prices to be correlated with changes in stock prices, it is to be
considered that where oil is the basic parameter of economic operation will definitely be affecting
revenue of organizations. Certainly oil prices will be inversely proportional to earnings of public stocks.
Akhtam utilizes general approach to forecast responses of growing oil prices based on current economic
factors.
AROURI ,Mohamed El Hédi (2010) highlighted that there are several passages by which oil prices may
affect stock market or forex prices. The most important of oil price changes as a factor affecting stock
market returns they infected stock returns. These cash-flows are affected by macroeconomic events that
possibly can be influenced by oil shocks. Oil price fluctuations may influence stock market facts and
figures. Past studies and experiences proves this relationship within the framework of using low
frequency (monthly or quarterly) data from oil importing countries. Using weekly data and nonlinear
models, Arouri investigates short-run relationship between oil price shocks and stock markets in the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, previous studies on the impact of oil price changes on GCC stock
markets are too heterogeneous to lead to general repercussions. These findings are confusing as the GCC
countries are strongly oil exporters and share several commonalities in their economic structures. The
conclusions of these studies could be due to the fact that the tests they rely on are not powerful enough to
detect linkages. Arouri contend that there are some confusing signs in the relationship between oil prices
and the economic activity.
4 Research Methodology
Cause-and-effect research methodology was used along with statistics through past data for exploring the
relationship among variables.
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First designed the data gathering method and then using SPSS software for analyzing the data for
reasonable conclusion and testing of hypothesis.
Research Hypothesis
H0: There is no effect of oil prices on stock prices
H1: There is effect of oil prices on stock prices
H2: Oil is not the cause of increase of stock prices
H3: Oil is the cause of increase of stock prices
4.1 Model
Oil_price Consumption Economic_growth Stock_Price
Oil_price Consumption Economic_growth Stock_Price
The Econometric Model would be as follows:
OilPrices = α + β1+Stock_Prices+ET
OR
Stock_Prices = α + β1 + Oil_Prices + ET
Since there were chances that oil prices cans cause stock prices to come down and stock prices may
effect to oil prices to reduce so we use both the test using Granger causality test to find the relation.
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Quantitative Technique in Analysis using Econometrics
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4.2 Sample and Procedures
Last 05 years data of Pakistan, UAE and India
4.3 Data Collection
Data was collected through reliable economic sources by visiting official websites of economic surveys,
State Bank reports, IMF reports and others.
4.4 Hypothesis and Data Analysis
Data analysis is a procedure of scrutinizing, cleaning, transforming, and modeling data with the goal of
underlining useful information, suggesting conclusions, and supporting decision making. Data analysis
has several facets and methods, encompassing assorted techniques under a variety of names, in different
business, science, and social science domains.
The purpose of this paper to investigate cause and effect relationship between oil and stock prices, we
hereby propose below hypothesis for examination
H0: There is no effect of oil prices on stock prices
H1: There is effect of oil prices on stock prices
H2: Oil is not the cause of increase of stock prices
H3: Oil is the cause of increase of stock prices
For this aforesaid hypothesis, first we check the proposed model accuracy and result provide the result
that there is………………………………………….
8. Name of Journal
Issue 023(07)/2012 ISSN: XXXX-XXXX
Quantitative Technique in Analysis using Econometrics
8
We conducted regression test on SPSS. At first, a time series data was collected and transformed the
independent variables into its previous lags. Significant outlier were found and in observation 26, 29,28
and 30 in depended variable which can create distort information so they were transformed.
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Quantitative Technique in Analysis using Econometrics
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It was found that depended variable is only predicting from its current lag and current lag of investment.
There are no significant values determined for other independent variable like interest rate and
GDP/capita.
Inflation predicting from current lag of Investment
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Quantitative Technique in Analysis using Econometrics
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Inflation effects from Investment
Regression was performed to determine whether the data is unbiased or not. The obtained Bi-lateral
Symmetric shaped curve [bell-shaped curve] indicates that the data is unbiased and normally distributed.
The result reveals about the underlying fact that there is BLUE during tradeoff between Inflation and
unemployment.
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Quantitative Technique in Analysis using Econometrics
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Secondly, the result concluded that there is no-correlation exist between inflation and unemployment. It
was also observed by Dublin Watson value which is 2.013.
5 Conclusion
After analyzing the data we conclude our topic according to the above tests and techniques. The findings
of study have led to the result that there is………………………………………
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6 References
Akhtam,Maghyereh (2004).Oil Price Shocks And Emerging Stock Markets International.Journal of Applied
Econometrics and Quantitative Studies. Vol.1-2(2004)
AROURI, Mohamed El Hédi (2010).Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Returns in Oil-Exporting
Countries.International Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 2, No. 5; November 2010
Website Reference
www.sbp.org.pk State Bank of Pakistan - The Central Bank.
www.imf.org IMF -- International Monetary Fund
http://www.opm.gov
http://notesforpakistan.blogspot.com/2009_08_25_archive.html
http://worldwidescience.org/topicpages/m/macroeconomic+risk+factors.html