This document examines the impact of changes in petrol, liquefied petroleum gas, and kerosene prices on household welfare in Zaria, Nigeria. It finds that increases in the prices of these petroleum products decrease demand for the products and have multiplier effects that increase prices of other goods and services. Conversely, decreases in petroleum product prices increase demand for the products. The study uses surveys and statistical analysis to show that changes in the prices of these three fuels significantly impact household welfare in Zaria.
This paper examines the relationship between Saudi oil revenues and the Kingdom’s economic growth over the past 47 years. In analyzing the data that are needed for this analysis, problems were encountered with the basic real GDP and government oil revenue data that are typically used. The most widely-used measure of non-oil private sector activity that is available, the Non-Oil Private Institutional Sector GDP, does not include the Gross Value Added of all of the private activities, omitting over SAR 80 billion of real activity (in 2010 prices). A new series was constructed, consisting of all of the non-oil private activities, including the recently corporatized/privatized companies. In addition, the oil revenue data prior to 1987 were found to be unsatisfactory for use as published, due to their being based on the 354-355 day Hijra calendar. A new conversion methodology, based on a recently published paper by Qualls et al. (2017), was applied, and the pre-1987 data were converted to a consistent Gregorian basis with good results. The two series were determined to have a unit root of order one, with a highly significant long-run relationship. An error-correction model was then estimated, and highly significant short- and long-run relationships were found. A Ganger Causality test was performed, with the results confirming the ECM’s results, with real government oil revenue growth “Granger-causing” real private-sector GDP growth. Finally, the new non-oil activity GDP measure produced better results than did the traditionally-used Non-Oil Private Sector GDP.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
This paper deals with the question of how consumption taxes, especially the value-added tax, affect consumption prices. The analyses are based on data from EU countries for the period 1970–2004. The starting point is a conventional supply-demand analysis of the tax incidence problem. This problem is solved using some simple price mark-up equations, Phillips curves and inflation forecast error equations. All these equations are estimated from panel data from EU countries using different estimators and variable specifications. In addition, an analysis is carried out with Finnish excise taxes using commodity/outlet level micro data for the period 1997–2004. A general result of all analyses is that about two thirds of a tax increase shifts to consumer prices. By contrast, there is less evidence on shifts to producer prices.
The primary aim of this study was to assess the degree of Poland’s convergence in terms of price stability, both at the stage of the country’s candidacy to the
euro area and in relation to the euro convergence criteria (the so-called Maastricht
criteria), and in the broader context of the ECB’s unified monetary policy. The time
frame for this study covers the period of 2004–2017. The starting point marks Poland’s accession to the EU, which is a pre-requisite for application to access the euro
area. The closing time was chosen due to the availability of data, mainly from the Eurostat database. This was studied in view of the critical analysis of methodology and
the method used to establish the Maastricht criterion for the dynamics of the general
price level. The methodology of determining the inflation criterion is flawed and not
matched to today’s economic conditions, including the definition of price stability applied in the practice of central banking, as well as in the context of the phenomenon of
deflation commonly occurring in the last decade. As a consequence, the value of the
criterion for a candidate country may turn out to be very low, and may unjustifiably
increase the costs of accession to the euro area, also in the long-term perspective. Such
a problem should be taken into account in the discussion on Poland’s accession to the
euro area, which is usually of a political, as well as social and economic nature. This
economic aspect, however, should be key in practice.
This paper examines the relationship between Saudi oil revenues and the Kingdom’s economic growth over the past 47 years. In analyzing the data that are needed for this analysis, problems were encountered with the basic real GDP and government oil revenue data that are typically used. The most widely-used measure of non-oil private sector activity that is available, the Non-Oil Private Institutional Sector GDP, does not include the Gross Value Added of all of the private activities, omitting over SAR 80 billion of real activity (in 2010 prices). A new series was constructed, consisting of all of the non-oil private activities, including the recently corporatized/privatized companies. In addition, the oil revenue data prior to 1987 were found to be unsatisfactory for use as published, due to their being based on the 354-355 day Hijra calendar. A new conversion methodology, based on a recently published paper by Qualls et al. (2017), was applied, and the pre-1987 data were converted to a consistent Gregorian basis with good results. The two series were determined to have a unit root of order one, with a highly significant long-run relationship. An error-correction model was then estimated, and highly significant short- and long-run relationships were found. A Ganger Causality test was performed, with the results confirming the ECM’s results, with real government oil revenue growth “Granger-causing” real private-sector GDP growth. Finally, the new non-oil activity GDP measure produced better results than did the traditionally-used Non-Oil Private Sector GDP.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
This paper deals with the question of how consumption taxes, especially the value-added tax, affect consumption prices. The analyses are based on data from EU countries for the period 1970–2004. The starting point is a conventional supply-demand analysis of the tax incidence problem. This problem is solved using some simple price mark-up equations, Phillips curves and inflation forecast error equations. All these equations are estimated from panel data from EU countries using different estimators and variable specifications. In addition, an analysis is carried out with Finnish excise taxes using commodity/outlet level micro data for the period 1997–2004. A general result of all analyses is that about two thirds of a tax increase shifts to consumer prices. By contrast, there is less evidence on shifts to producer prices.
The primary aim of this study was to assess the degree of Poland’s convergence in terms of price stability, both at the stage of the country’s candidacy to the
euro area and in relation to the euro convergence criteria (the so-called Maastricht
criteria), and in the broader context of the ECB’s unified monetary policy. The time
frame for this study covers the period of 2004–2017. The starting point marks Poland’s accession to the EU, which is a pre-requisite for application to access the euro
area. The closing time was chosen due to the availability of data, mainly from the Eurostat database. This was studied in view of the critical analysis of methodology and
the method used to establish the Maastricht criterion for the dynamics of the general
price level. The methodology of determining the inflation criterion is flawed and not
matched to today’s economic conditions, including the definition of price stability applied in the practice of central banking, as well as in the context of the phenomenon of
deflation commonly occurring in the last decade. As a consequence, the value of the
criterion for a candidate country may turn out to be very low, and may unjustifiably
increase the costs of accession to the euro area, also in the long-term perspective. Such
a problem should be taken into account in the discussion on Poland’s accession to the
euro area, which is usually of a political, as well as social and economic nature. This
economic aspect, however, should be key in practice.
Az üzemanyagárak emelkedése miatt nagyot ugrott májusban az infláció, de a kereslet-vezérelt tételekben is érzékelhető a gyorsulás. Idén nyáron átmenetileg 3% feletti inflációra számítanak az OTP Bank elemzői. Tartósan 2019-ben érheti el a jegybank célját a pénzromlás üteme, sőt, ha a kockázatok realizálódnak, akár jelentősebb gyorsulás is jöhet jövőre.
Global M&A Partners Industrial insider Q3 2018 focus on predictive maintenanceVeronique Zeid-Maurel
Happy to share with you our quarterly report on M&A activities in the industrial segment, there is a special focus on predictive maintenance. To know more, contact your local Global M&A Industrial sector team member. http://www.globalma.com/industry_sectors/industrials
The main objective of this study is to determine the impact of oil price volatility on macroeconomic variables and sustainable development in Nigeria. The significant role of oil in the Nigerian economy cannot be overestimated. Though there are studies by other researchers on oil prices and macroeconomic variables, their findings are contentious and country-specific. Our literature review and methodology shade lights on these positions. We used secondary time series data in a vector auto regression analysis. We found that fluctuations in oil prices do substantially affect the real GDP, exchange rates, Unemployment, Balance of payments and interest rates in Nigeria. Negative shocks in the international oil market, have significant impact on price fluctuations. Due to increased imports in the Nigerian economy, inflationary pressures are inevitable and are pronounced. Government revenues and expenditures have decreased significantly. We recommend diversification of the economy and energy sources for sustainable development in Nigeria.
Az üzemanyagárak emelkedése miatt nagyot ugrott májusban az infláció, de a kereslet-vezérelt tételekben is érzékelhető a gyorsulás. Idén nyáron átmenetileg 3% feletti inflációra számítanak az OTP Bank elemzői. Tartósan 2019-ben érheti el a jegybank célját a pénzromlás üteme, sőt, ha a kockázatok realizálódnak, akár jelentősebb gyorsulás is jöhet jövőre.
Global M&A Partners Industrial insider Q3 2018 focus on predictive maintenanceVeronique Zeid-Maurel
Happy to share with you our quarterly report on M&A activities in the industrial segment, there is a special focus on predictive maintenance. To know more, contact your local Global M&A Industrial sector team member. http://www.globalma.com/industry_sectors/industrials
The main objective of this study is to determine the impact of oil price volatility on macroeconomic variables and sustainable development in Nigeria. The significant role of oil in the Nigerian economy cannot be overestimated. Though there are studies by other researchers on oil prices and macroeconomic variables, their findings are contentious and country-specific. Our literature review and methodology shade lights on these positions. We used secondary time series data in a vector auto regression analysis. We found that fluctuations in oil prices do substantially affect the real GDP, exchange rates, Unemployment, Balance of payments and interest rates in Nigeria. Negative shocks in the international oil market, have significant impact on price fluctuations. Due to increased imports in the Nigerian economy, inflationary pressures are inevitable and are pronounced. Government revenues and expenditures have decreased significantly. We recommend diversification of the economy and energy sources for sustainable development in Nigeria.
This study investigated the relationship between premium exchange rate and output growth in
African oil producing countries between 1995 to 2018 using panel Vector Error Correction as estimation
technique Data for the study were sourced from World Bank Development indicator data base, IMF online data
base and Central Banks of the selected countries
The Impact of Oil Price on Economic Development of Kurdistan Region of Iraq f...IJAEMSJORNAL
Kurdistan region of Iraq signifies a great case study to investigate the impact of oil price, for the reason that most of its producing reliance on exporting crude oil KRG is one of the main oil exporting regions. Usually, the national revenue relies on crude oil revenue in KRG comprises a great percentage of Kurdistan region of Iraqi government’s budget and also KRG’s economy can be impact by would economic during economic difficulties. Consequently, growing oil crude oil price can influence on economic development in Kurdistan region of Iraq. Therefore, it is important to utilize other resource instead of oil income as a different approach to increase region’s income. The key objective of this article is to investigate the impacts of oil price and oil production value on economic development. Annual growth rate, compound growth rate and correlation coefficient can be utilized to estimate of the data. The findings revealed that an economic development is one of the most significant sources of economic transformation since it reproduces the society's capability to rise productive volume and ideal investment and likewise sustainability obligation comprises an expanded economy on the face of shocks, dynamically implements technology and head accumulation human money, competitively can increase comparative advantages compared to the other. Consequently, it operates within steady, balanced economic strategies and economic growth and there was positively statistically significance between oil price and GDP, oil production value and GDP.
Forecasting the Causal Relationship between Oil Prices and Exchange Rate in N...iosrjce
This study empirically forecasted the causal relationship between oil prices and exchange rate in
Nigeria using data for 45 years (1970 - 2014). The data which is purely secondary data was sourced through
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the Durbin-Watson statistic value that there is no autocorrelation in the model, t-test statistic was used to test
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in Nigeria, with the t-statistic P-value (0.0000) and table value (1.671) at 5% level of significance. The study
then recommended that exchange rate management policy makers should ensure that the oil price changes are
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Oil Prices and Nigerian Aggregate Economic Activitiesiosrjce
This paper examines the oil prices and Nigerian aggregate economic activities. The data series
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growth not of Nigerian Economy
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Impact Analysis of Petroluem Product Price Changes on Households’ Welfare in Zaria Metropolis, Kaduna State
1. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention
ISSN (Online): 2319 – 7722, ISSN (Print): 2319 – 7714
www.ijhssi.org ||Volume 6 Issue 4||April. 2017 || PP.40-49
www.ijhssi.org 40 | Page
Impact Analysis of Petroluem Product Price Changes on
Households’ Welfare in Zaria Metropolis, Kaduna State
Dr. N. M. Gatawa1
, Zakari Abdullahi2
1
Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, UsmanuDanfodiyo University, Sokoto.
2
Department of Economics, School of art and social sciences Federal College of Education Zaria.
ABSTRACT: This paper examines the impact of petroleum products price changes on household welfare in
Zaria metropolis of Kaduna state. Respondents communities were stratified selected base on their geographical
locations. Descriptive statistics and inferential statistics tools were employed and use for data analysis.
Descriptive statistics was used to analyze socio economic characteristics of household head and to determine
the price changes of petroleum products on households. while inferential statistical tools was employed to
specifically show how price changes of petroleum products affect the household through increase in prices of
petroleum products which causes decrease in demand for the products, and also have multiplier effect on goods
and services. On the other hand, decrease in prices of petroleum products also increase the demand for the
products in Zaria metropolis. To achieved this objective, non parametric chi-square test was employed. The
results shows that, the three petroleum products that is, petrol (PMS), gas (LPG) and kerosene (DPK) of the
study have an impact on household welfare. This indicated that increase in the petroleum products price
changes causes decrease in demand of the products, while on the other hand the decrease of the petroleum
products prices causes increase in demand for the products which was in conformity with the demand theory
that was adopted in this study. The study also recommends, government should deregulate the downstream
petroleum sector to allow for increase participation and competition which will alternatively result in reducing
prices of petroleum products Moreover, emphasis on alternative sources of energy such as gas, solar, wind and
hydraulic sources should put into consideration. Government should expanded consumption capacity effect
which will translate to increased demand for varied consumer good and hence increased sales and profitability
of a number of Nigerians.
KEYWORDS: Petroleum Products, Price Changes and Household Welfare.
I. INTRODUCTION
Nigeria as one of the fastest growing economy in Africa and is highly endowed with abundant human
and natural resources. The Nigerian petroleum sector has no doubt contributed immensely to economic growth
and development of the country. The petroleum sector accounts for over 90% of the country’s foreign exchange
earnings (Sulaimon 2014). Nigeria is also one of the major key member of Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC).
The Nigerian petroleum sector can also be seen in its domestic demand profile informed by series of
prices changes in the past and present time. Also as observed by Onwioduokit and Adenuga (2000), like other
nations with similar social economic characteristics, the bulk consumption of petroleum products in Nigeria is
in Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), which covers such uses as in vehicles, small electricity generating plants and
drives for compressors, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), which is used largely for household cooking and Dual
Purpose Kerosene (DPK) (Household kerosene mostly used in homes and industries to produce insecticides and
other pest control products).
Nigeria had, experienced persistent increases in the prices of petroleum products over the years. After
trending downwards for 18 years between 1981-1998, price of petroleum products for domestic consumption
surprisingly doubled between 1998-2003, and have continued to increase since 1999, a notable year being in
2012, when fuel price was increased to N87 due to the partial removal of fuel subsidy, and more so, in 2016 the
subsidy for petrol was completely removed which led to the increment of the product to 145 naira per liter.
These movements in petroleum prices have had a multiplier effect on other sectors such as transportation, and
also on the prices of goods and services, all against the backdrop of minimum wage fixed at N 18,000. (Okafor
and Aniche 2015).
Even though, various studies have been conducted on the petrol price increase on Nigerian Economics,
these studies are not without observed gaps which this study intends to fill. For example, Ocheni (2015)
examined the impact of petrol price increase on the Nigerian economy looking at the implications of such
impact in such areas as Balance of Payments and Economic Purchasing Power. The study’s narrow focused on
looking at the changes in prices of PMS only, Similarly, Amagoh, Odoh and Okuh (2014) studied the impact of
subsidy removal on the Nigerian economy. Though disaggregating petroleum products into DPK, PMS and
2. Impact Analysis of Petroluem Product Price Changes on Households’ Welfare in Zaria Metropolis, ..
www.ijhssi.org 41 | Page
AGO, the specific impact on the welfare of households was not examined. Perhaps a very close study would be
that of Umar and Umar (2013) which focused on the impact of increased price as a result of fuel subsidy reform,
while households were divided into three groups based on income level. The study however, like studies of this
type, adopt the narrow measure of focusing only on PMS and neglecting other products.
Therefore this paper intends to identifies the void left unfilled by current studies and attempts to fill the
gap by investigating the impact of petroleum product price changes, specifically, changes in the prices of
Petroleum Motor Spirit (PMS), Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Dual Purpose Kerosene (DPK) on the
consumption expenditure of the most obvious economic unit on the receiving end.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
In spite the number of works that examined the increase of petrol price changes on the Nigerian
Economy. This paper will focus on the studies the changes of prices of petroleum products and how it affect the
welfare of households, based on certain pre-defined objectives between price changes and petroleum products
.One of such studies was conducted by Valadkhani (2002) examined the impact of the recent petrol price rises
on prices throughout the economy on the sectoral and aggregate price indices in Australia. Among the results is
an estimated impact on the consumer price index of 1.8%. Also, the same petrol price shock would have
consistently larger price effects in the late 1970s than in the late 1990s. Further, using the 1998-99 Household
Expenditure Survey, he finds that the petrol price rises are regressive. Cunado and degracia (2004) investigate
the effects of oil price shocks on economic activity and inflation which they are significant but limited only in
the short-run. If shocks are transformed in terms of the local currency of the country under study, results provide
more significant evidence on the effects of the shocks. Asymmetric response of oil price inflation relationship is
found in the cases of Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand and Japan and solely in South Korea if oil-economic
growth relationship is considered.
Jimenez and Sanchez (2004) analyzed the effects of oil price changes on real economic activity of the
main industrialized OECD countries, using a multivariate VAR analysis with linear and non-linear model
specifications. Like Some researchers, however, pointed out that monetary policy’s response to oil price shocks
caused the aggregate economic fluctuations. Cunnado and Gracia (2005) and Lardic and Mignon (2006) based
their argument on the classical supply side effect. An increase in oil price , pushes up production cost
leading to a decline in output growth and productivity. It impacts negatively on the trade of oil importer
countries. It also leads to increases in money demand to meet extra cost which subsequently creates inflation
wage increases, with consequent decline in investment and ultimately in gross decline in domestic product.
Lescaroux and Mignon (2008) in their study investigated the links between oil prices and various
macroeconomic and financial variables for a large set of countries, including both oil importing and exporting
countries. Both short-run and long-run interactions are analyzed through the implementation of causality tests,
evaluation of cross-correlations between the cyclical components of the series in order to identify lead/lag
relationships and cointegration analysis. The results highlight the existence of various relationships between oil
prices and macroeconomic variables and, especially, an important link between oil and share prices on the short
run. Turning to the long run, numerous long-term relationships are detected, the causality generally running
from oil prices to the other variables. An important conclusion is relating to the key role played by the oil
market on stock markets.
Ibrahim and Unom (2011) analyzed the fuel subsidy and how the issue carried out in
October/November 2011 to promote a better understanding that surrounding the subsidy and downstream
deregulation debate. The study sets out to: a) provide a brief synopsis of previous government attempts to
address the subsidy, b) conduct a stakeholder analysis of potential winners and losers impacted directly and
indirectly by the removal of the subsidy, c) briefly review how other countries have dealt with the issue and d)
recommend appropriate actions that could lead towards a resolution of the perennial problem.
Umar and Umar (2013) Using the Household Expenditure Survey of 2010, measured the direct welfare
impact of higher fuel prices on different socio -economic groups in Nigeria. The analysis is carried out by
segregating households into 3 different income groups and the welfare impact due to subsidy cut is measured.
The results show that the reduction in welfare due to higher pr ice is larger for the middle 40% compared to the
top and the bottom 20%. This is due to the fact that the middle income group has a larger budget share on fuel.
Fuel subsidies are found to be costly in protecting poor households due to substantial leakage of benefits to
higher income group but the welfare loss for the lower income group due to subsidy cut is somewhat higher due
to the smaller size of their income. Sulaimon (2014), Study the demand for petroleum products in Nigeria
(especially the PMS and Diesel) has been on the rise for nearly over a quarter of a century ago. It is against this
bourgeoning demand that this study investigates the demand for petroleum products in Nigeria. The study
employed the Error Correction Model to examine both the short and long dynamics of petroleum in Nigeria. The
study also therefore found that price and income elasticity of demand for petroleum product have long run
impact on the energy demand in Nigeria. Although, there are short run fluctuations, the impact of the elasticities
3. Impact Analysis of Petroluem Product Price Changes on Households’ Welfare in Zaria Metropolis, ..
www.ijhssi.org 42 | Page
on energy demand does not exist in the short run. It is however the recommendation of this study that energy
policy in Nigeria should be towards providing long term solution to energy problems. Also, policies geared
toward diversifying the country’s alternative sources of energy should be formulated and ultimately
implemented. It is also the recommendation of this study that the government should restructure and reposition
the power sector and other alternative sources of energy so as to reduce the demand pressure on petroleum
products which will help foster future growth and energy security in the country.
III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The study area of this research was Zaria Metropolis which was second most populous area after
Kaduna Metropolis, the area comprises two local governments that is Sabon Gari and Zaria local government
area. Zaria area is located in the northern part of Kaduna state. The choice of these areas in Kaduna state is
based on; first, Zaria area ranks next to Kaduna metropolis in terms of commercial activities, industrial presence
and with 42 filling stations in which the petroleum products under study were been sold. Also secondly, the
selection of the local government areas was based on the population of residents and tertiary institutions in
these areas.
Primary data was collected from 400 household heads using stratified random sampling technique, each
four district heads of the metropolis serves as a stratum. Data collected include socio-economic characteristics
of household heads, prices of petroleum products, preferences of the products etc were soursed. Descriptive
statistics was used to analyze socio economic characteristics of household head and to determine the price
changes of petroleum products on households welfare. while inferential statistical tools was employed to
specifically show how price changes of petroleum products affect the household through increase in prices of
petroleum products which causes decrease in demand for the products, and also which have multiplier effect on
goods and services. On the other hand, decrease in prices of petroleum products adversely increase the demand
for the products in Zaria metropolis.
3.5 Analytical Techniques
Several empirical studies like Ayadi (2005), Eryigit (2009), Davide (2010), and Arinze (2011), Akujobi
and Adagunodo (2015) employed various macro-economic variables in cross-country analysis regression
examined petroleum product consumption in Nigeria. For instance, Besim (2014) studied the assessment of
changes in prices of petroleum product on the general price level. for a single country, Bosnia Herszegovina
using Probit for the study and the same methodology was adopted by Bamiro and Boris (2013). However, the
methodology of this study will be different which would used both descriptive and inferential statistics. Under
descriptive analysis, the study used frequency distribution table and present result on frequency and
percentages. Under inferential analysis, the study used a nonparametric chi-square test to find out if petroleum
products price changes has a significant effect on households’ welfare. And also to test whether there is
significant differences in the quantity of the products use among the various end users. The tool will also be
used to measure differences in attitudes of households towards the current price changes. The study has also
made use of cross tabulation and percentages for analyses. In general chi square (X2
) test is used to find out
whether the results obtained from a sample are the likely ones on the basis of some theories or hypotheses. The
sample result is termed actual or observed while the result suggested by the theory is test the relationship
between the variables of the study. The result was estimated with the aid of SPSS version 20. The chi-square
model can be specified as:
E
EO
2
2
…………………………………………………………………………..…3.1
Where
2
= Chi-square
= Summation
O = Observed value
E = Expected value
3.6 Decision Rule
The hypothesis of the study was tested at 5% level of significance. The decision rule was that if chi-square
calculated is greater than the chi-square tabulated, we reject the null hypothesis; otherwise, we accept the null
hypothesis.
3.7 Definition of Variables
The variables the researcher will use in the model are as follows:
Educational Attainment: This was used in order to examine the attitude of the users for demanding petroleum
products in the state based on their educational level. To find whether there is correlation between levels of
4. Impact Analysis of Petroluem Product Price Changes on Households’ Welfare in Zaria Metropolis, ..
www.ijhssi.org 43 | Page
education and Demand, willingness to pay, quantity of product use and so on. Also, this variable will help us
have more valid and reliable conclusions.
Income: Household level of income, which can measure the combined income of particular household use to
purchase goods and services. It includes every form of income eg salaries, wages etc.This is an important
variable in this research so as to analyze product demand/use among different income groups. To find whether
there is correlation between levels of income and satisfaction, willingness to pay, quantity of petroleum products
used, as in the works of , (Moradkhani .N, Abd Rashid .
Z , Taufiq . H and Anuuar M.N 2005).
Consumption Pattern: can be determine the relative importance (weight) of household monetary expenditure
attached to each category of goods and services covered by the harmonize index of consumer prices as use by
kpodar (2006). This variable is important in measuring the quantity consumed by household.
Household Demand: Demand refers to the quantity of a good or service that consumer are willing and able to
purchase at various prices during a given period of time. And demand in economics is something more than
desire to purchase though desire is one element of it. Thus effective demand for a thing depends on desire,
means to purchase and willingness to use those means for that purchase. Unless demand is backed by
purchasing power or quantity demand which is always expressed at a given price as use by (kpodar 2006).
Standard of Living: is how well or how poorly a person or group of people live in terms of having their needs
and wants met, and also the level of wealth, comfort, material goods and necessities available to a certain
socioeconomics class in a certain geographical area. (Sanusi 2016)
Price changes: The price changes for purchasing petroleum products in Zaria Metropolis. The income used to
purchase petroleum products at a different price depend on prevailing period and time, the price changes took
place since when petroleum products was discovered in Nigeria and however, which have multiplier effect on
household welfare. Bamiro and Ogunjobi. (2015) . In order to measure the determinants of price changes
questionnaire was administered with specified questions asking the responding individual the state level at
which they purchase the petroleum products under study per week or month in an average.
Petroleum products: can also be defined as those commodity produced from the processing of crude oil and
other liquids at petroleum refineries, from the extraction of liquid hydrocarbons at natural gas processing plants,
and from the production of finished petroleum products at blending facilities. The majority of petroleum is
converted to petroleum products, which includes several classes of fuels such as Premium Motor Spirit (PMS),
Dual Purpose Kerosene (DPK) and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG).According to the composition of the
crude oil and depending on the demands of the market, refineries can produce different shares of petroleum
products. (Moses 2007).
IV. DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
It was discovered that 140 (36.8%) households consumed within the bracket of 91 - 120 litres of
petrol per week before prices changes which indicated that, large number of litres was consumed before price
increase of petrol. And the following trend of consumptions are as follows: 90(23.7%) consumed 61 – 90 litres,
65 (17.1%) consumed 0 – 30 litres,45 (11.2%) consumed 31 – 60 litres and finally 40 (10.5%) consumed over
121litres. This is a clear indication that the prices were low relatively to the current situation and that makes
most household consumed many litres of petrol which was one of the three petroleum products that this study
examined.
After increase in prices of petrol 238(62.6%) was consumed within the bracket of 0 – 30litres of petrol
which indicated that, households reduced their quantity consumption of petrol, because increase in prices lead to
decrease in demand for the product. The remaining trend of consumption are 38(10.0%), 50(13.2%), 42(11.0%)
and 12(3.2%) households were able to consumed within the bracket of 31 – 60litres, 61 – 90lires, 91 – 120litres,
and over 121litres respectively. The consumption of petrol by household at this level after the increase of the
product it indicated the choice and level of demand of the product which determine their level of consumption.
Even though the price was increase the households were able to buy the petrol at law quantity.
The consumption of gas before price changes shows that 162(42.6%) consumed within the bracket of
21 – 30 kilograms, that shows how higher level of consumption at lower price, while 102 (26.8%) consumed
within the bracket of 31 – 40 kilograms and subsequent consumption are 80(21.1%), 27(7.1%) and 9(2.4%) with
consumption bracket of 11-20 kilograms, 0 – 10 kilograms and over 41kilogram. This is clear picture of the
household trend in Zaria metropolis that consumption of gas was higher at lower price.
However, 212(55.8%) consumed within the bracket of 0 -10 kilograms, after the price of gas increases,
this shows that household reduces their consumption of quantity of gas. And also 64(16.9%), 53(13.9%),
48(12.6%) and 3(0.8%) households were able to consumed within the bracket of , 11 – 20kilograms, 21 – 30
kilograms, 31 – 40 kilograms and over 41kilograms. Also the consumption of gas by households at this level
after the increase of the product indicated the choice and level of demand of the product which determine the
level consumption.
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Also the consumption of Kerosene before price changes shows that 197(51.8%) consumed within the
bracket of 0 – 30 litres, this indicated higher level of consumption at lower price, while 111 (29.2%) consumed
within the bracket of 31 – 60 litres and subsequent consumption are 35(9.2%), 25(6.6%) and 12(3.2%),with
consumption bracket of 91 – 120 litres,61 – 90 litres and over 121 litres respectively. This is clear picture of the
trend at which the consumption of kerosene was higher at lower price.
Therefore, kerosene is exceptional because 153 (40.5%) of households consumed 0 – 30litres of
kerosene after the increase of the product. indeed kerosene is exceptional because the study shows that, even
though the price of kerosene increases it does not affect household to reduce their consumption. while
136(36.0%) consumed 31 – 60litres, 39(10.3%) consumed 61 – 90litres, 40(10.6%) consumed 91 – 120litres and
10(2.6%) consumed over 121litres respectively. This shows that the product is the most consumable product by
household, even with hiked in price it does not affect their consumption.
The changes in the prices of petroleum product which affect the living standard of household
indicated that 151(37.5%) have decrease in consumption, inaccessible good health and lack of qualitative
education, all these happen as a result of increase in prices of petroleum products which lead to increase in the
price of other goods and services and adversely affected their well being. This clearly shows that 84(20.8)
households were at lower level of living standard which lead to their lower level of consumption. 74(18.4)
increase in price of petroleum product does not affect their access to good health. 45(11.2%) have access to
qualitative education as a result of increase in their income even though increase in price of petroleum product
does not affect them. 21(5.2) have increase in consumption, access of good health and qualitative education all
these well being, have not being affected by the increase in prices of petroleum product, this is an indication that
most of them are rich by implication.
The level of income also affect the demand for petroleum product of household. It is clear that,
289(76.1%) increase their demand for petroleum product as a result of increase in the level of income, while
43(11.3%) reduce their demand for petroleum product as a result of decrease in level of income, and 48(12.6%)
their demand for petroleum products does not change in either of the changes increase and decrease.
The first hypothesis, the results reveal that F-calculated value of petrol before and after price changes
are ( 0.556 and 0.440) with corresponding 5% level of significant and F-calculated value of gas before and after
price changes are (0.778 and 0.551) with corresponding 5% level of significant and also F-calculated value of
kerosene before and after price changes are (0.009 and 0.429) with corresponding 5% level of significant.
Therefore we accepted the alternative However the second hypothesis shows that F- calculated value for
changes in demand for petroleum products and living standard of household is 0.362 with corresponding 5%
level of significance. we therefore accept alternative hypothesis.
The third hypothesis reveal that F- calculated value of demand for petroleum products and level of
income is 0.051 at 5% level of significance. Therefore we accept the alternative.
V. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
This paper examines the petroleum product price changes on household welfare in Zaria Metropolis.
The data of 400 households were collected to estimate a price changes for PMS, LPG and DPK using stratified
random sampling techniques. The non parametric chi square taste was used to analyze the price changes of
petroleum products and household consumption and income. The study concluded that Households’ income and
spending have both been affected by the rise in petroleum product prices. More so the value of minimum wage
compensation will depreciate further (assuming it is finally at N18,000) combined with the increase in inflation.
At the same time, the average household’s annual spending on goods and services will rise by about N75, 000,
while their saving rate dropped sharply. The fall in the saving rate, will erode about half of household present
middle-class indigene and further dampen the negative effects that higher prices would ordinarily have had on
the economy in the short run. Paying high prices for petroleum product and using less of it will affect the
demand for goods and services. The few production industries In Nigeria will face a daunting challenge to stay
in business (cost of production will go up and demand will drop). The effects on demand however, have by far
the greater potential impact on GDP in the short run. In a perfect world, using less energy has only a small direct
effect on production because, out of all the inputs to production (labor, structures and equipment, energy, and
other raw materials), energy costs account for a relatively small share of output, but In the case of Nigeria,
energy is a major share of output, as organizations have to provide for their own power in houses, such as
generators sets etc and are exposed to the market as it relates to energy prices.
The recommendations on this finding are as follows.
a) We believe that the current decline in oil prices in world market and unfolding scenarios present for
government a good opportunity to deregulate the pump prices of petroleum produts and allow market forces to
determine the prices. As the template show when standards are set, it is possible that market would find refiners
that could offer bargain prices that allow them to sell at competitive lower prices than the regulated prices. And
if oil prices reverse upward, a scenario that is not expected to be sudden in the near to medium term, Nigerian
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consumers could be expected to easily get used to the market driven changes in product price as experienced in
other non-regulated sector like telecommunication sector.
b) PMS has become a major utility product in Nigeria across households and firms regardless of economic
status. The wide use of power generators (small or large) across households and firms makes its consumption a
pervasive content of households and small firms’ consumption basket. The wide use in transportation is another
direct impact point as costs of transportation tend to have direction proportional relationship to changes in the
pump price of PMS in the country. In this regard, this reduction in the pump price of PMS is tantamount to tax
rebate to an average household and firm in Nigeria, notwithstanding the size. It could therefore translate in
expanded consumption and savings capacity of the economy. The price affect across the wide range of product
through the transportation and energy costs saving is expected to translate to some moderation in inflation rate
in the near term. The expanded consumption capacity effect could translate to increased demand for varied
consumer goods and hence increased sales and profitability of a number of Nigerian.
c) Emphasis on alternative sources of energy such as gas, solar and hydraulic sources. The purposed liquefaction
of the Nigerian national gas is a way forward. If effectively implemented the liquefied natural gas (LNG) project
has many economic advantages. LNG has minimal transportation cost it is most importantly a potential source
of foreign exchange reserve. And moreover, government should use monetary and fiscal measures so as to
reduce the rate of inflation in the country.
d) Government should vigorously pursue the revitalization of the railways. If only Nigerians had alternative to
road transport, all this noise about fuel hiked would not have been their because most increase in transportation
cause multiplier effect on goods and services, but when trains are properly functioning that would reduce cost of
transportation and lead to reduction on the prices of goods and services.
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APPENDIX 1
Frequency Table
Gender Frequency Percentage
Male 348 91.6
Female 32 8.6
Total 380 100.0
Age
18 – 24 110 28.9
24 – 34 204 53.7
35 – 44 45 11.8
50 and above 21 5.5
Total 380 100.0
Marital Status
Single 105 27.6
Married 271 71.3
Widow 2 0.5
Divorced 2 0.5
Total 380 100.0
Educational Qualification
Primary Certificate 6 1.6
SSCE/NECO 209 55.0
HND/Bsc 91 23.9
Postgraduate 28 7.4
Quran/Islamic Education 9 2.4
Other Specify 37 9.7
Total 380 100.0
Number of Head in the House
1 – 5 123 32.8
6 – 10 115 30.7
11 – 15 55 14.7
16 and above 82 21.7
Total 380 100.0
Occupational Status
Employed 78 20.6
Unemployed 168 44.4
Self employed 112 29.6
Under employed 14 3.7
Total 380 100.0
Source: Field Survey, 2016
4.2 : Relationship between consumers demand for petroleum product and their level of income.
Table 4.2 Relationship between consumers demand for petroleum product and their level of income
What is your monthly income
Variable Frequency Percentage
Less than #20,000 135 35.5
#21,000 - #40,000 75 19.7
#41,000 - #100,000 81 21.3
#101,000 – 150,000 79 19.5
Total 380 100.0
Before increase, how much do you spend for the consumption of petroleum product per week on average.
Variable Frequency Percentage
Less than #20,000 242 63.7
#4,000 – #7,000 78 20.5
#8,000 – #11,000 27 7.1
#12,000 – #15,000 25 6.6
#16,000 and above 8 2.1
Total 380 100.0
After increase how much do you spend for the consumption of petroleum product per week on average
Variable Frequency Percentage
Less than #5,000 162 42.6
#6,000 - #11,000 163 42.9
#12,000 - #17,000 32 9.5
#18,000 - #24,000 17 4.5
Above #25,000 2 0.5
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Total 380 100.0
How does changes in your level of income affects your demand for petroleum products?
Variable Frequency Percentage
Increase in demand 289 76.1
Decrease in demand 43 11.3
Unchanged 48 12.6
Total 380 100.0
APPENDIX2
how does changes in your level of income affects your demand for petroleum products? * educational qualification Crosstabulation
Count
educational qualification Total
post graduate quaranic/islamic
education
others
how does changes in your level of
income affects your demand for
petroleum products?
increase in demand 18 8 29 289
decrease in demand 3 0 5 43
Unchanged 7 1 3 48
Total 28 9 37 380
Chi-Square Tests
Value Df Asymp. Sig. (2-sided)
Pearson Chi-Square 12.639a
10 .245
Likelihood Ratio 14.199 10 .164
Linear-by-Linear Association .512 1 .474
N of Valid Cases 380
a. 9 cells (50.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected count is
.68.
what is your monthly income? * before chages in prices of petrol, how many liters do you
consumed per week on average? Crosstabulation
Count
before chages in prices of petrol, how many liters do you
consumed per week on average?
0-30 litres 31-60 litres 61-90 litres
what is your monthly income?
less than 20,000 25 13 35
21,000-40,000 18 7 17
41,000-100,000 15 12 18
101,000-150,000 7 10 16
151,000 and above 0 3 4
Total 65 45 90
what is your monthly income? * before chages in prices of petrol, how many liters do you consumed
per week on average? Crosstabulation
Count
before chages in prices of petrol, how many liters
do you consumed per week on average?
Total
91-120 litres over 121 litres
what is your monthly income?
less than 20,000 46 16 135
21,000-40,000 27 6 75
41,000-100,000 30 6 81
101,000-150,000 32 9 74
151,000 and above 5 3 15
Total 140 40 380
Chi-Square Tests
Value Df Asymp. Sig. (2-
sided)
Pearson Chi-Square 14.656a
16 .550
Likelihood Ratio 17.147 16 .376
Linear-by-Linear Association 2.103 1 .147
N of Valid Cases 380
a. 4 cells (16.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected
count is 1.58.
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what is your monthly income? * after chages in prices of petrol, how many liters do you consumed per week on
average? Crosstabulation
Count
after chages in prices of petrol, how many
liters do you consumed per week on
average?
Total
over 81 litres 6
what is your monthly income?
less than 20,000 9 0 135
21,000-40,000 5 0 75
41,000-100,000 2 0 81
101,000-150,000 0 1 74
151,000 and above 1 0 15
Total 17 1 380
Chi-Square Tests
Value Df Asymp. Sig. (2-
sided)
Pearson Chi-Square 19.516a
20 .489
Likelihood Ratio 22.243 20 .327
Linear-by-Linear Association 3.102 1 .078
N of Valid Cases 380
a. 12 cells (40.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected
count is .04.
what is your monthly income? * after chages in prices of petrol, how many liters do you consumed per week on
average? Crosstabulation
Count
after chages in prices of petrol, how many
liters do you consumed per week on
average?
Total
over 81 litres 6
what is your monthly income?
less than 20,000 9 0 135
21,000-40,000 5 0 75
41,000-100,000 2 0 81
101,000-150,000 0 1 74
151,000 and
above
1 0 15
Total 17 1 380
Chi-Square Tests
Value Df Asymp. Sig. (2-
sided)
Pearson Chi-Square 19.516a
20 .489
Likelihood Ratio 22.243 20 .327
Linear-by-Linear Association 3.102 1 .078
N of Valid Cases 380
a. 12 cells (40.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected
count is .04.
what is your monthly income? * after chages in prices of gas, how many kilograms do you consumed per week on
average? Crosstabulation
Count
after chages in prices of gas, how many
kilograms do you consumed per week on
average?
Total
21-30 kgms over 31 lgms
what is your monthly income?
less than 20,000 33 5 135
21,000-40,000 20 8 75
41,000-100,000 21 4 81
101,000-150,000 27 3 74
151,000 and above 4 1 15
Total 105 21 380
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Chi-Square Tests
Value Df Asymp. Sig. (2-
sided)
Pearson Chi-Square 14.643a
16 .551
Likelihood Ratio 14.098 16 .591
Linear-by-Linear Association 2.194 1 .139
N of Valid Cases 380
a. 8 cells (32.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum
expected count is .83.