1. “Scrooge” and our Software Industry
Keynote for the 10th
European Software Conference
By David Boventer
2. Introduction and why does Scrooge interest us?
SCROOGE McDUCK AND MONEY was another little Disney film which both entertained &
educated. crooge informs the viewer about the history of the development of convenient
currency and gives a brief explanation of inflation, economics and the importance of living
on a budget for good household management. He reveals the reason for taxes, explains why
money must circulate and advocates the value of making shrewd investments. Throughout,
the animation is strictly routine - showing where Disney pinched a few production pennies.
3. There are parallels between
Scrooge and our software
industry as we experience
them
Scarcity – we are confronted with a
limited budget of time, energy and
money
Power disproportion – we encounter
mega-corporations with a seemingly
abundant amount of financial
potential- though we are not directly
competing with them it takes strength
and confidence in your abilities and
resource saving abilities
But we are all global players. Starting
from our customers to the language
options we offer online and the way
the income reaches us crossing many
tax borders and into our pockets.
Our products are our wealth and
currency, translating into hard cash
depending on the quality, on the trust
we enjoy on our markets and among
our users.
4. The aggregation of
capabilities and strength
resulting in wealth
Scrooge is the best example of a
successful entrepreneur to its extreme
and therefore an extreme picture of
automated aggregation of wealth. He
demonstrates the absurdity of enormous
wealth but stresses the importance of his
first penny earned. Wealth evolves
around the first success and builds up on
it. As software developers we have to do
it right from the beginning. But never
loose traction with the ground we stand
on.
We know that it is
important to:
Ascertain our markets and
opportunities
Give time for networking
and education (like
attending the ESWC!)
5. Ascertain our markets and
opportunities e.g. Broadband
access in the EU and the USA
When we start thinking about
the IT-Business in Europe we
probably think about the
technical conditions that
enable E-commerce in general.
The broadband-access is a good
indirect indicator for the
general acceptance of software
products.
There we can see that the
infrastructure in the EU still has
many deficits esp. In the rural
areas.
Austria has a coverage of about
58 percent, Germany is at 65
percent with Iceland leading
with 87 percent. The US has a
coverage of about 65 percent.
6.
7.
8. IT LEADS PRODUCTIVITY
GROWTH & INVESTMENT IN
R&D OUTPERFORMING THE ECONOMY
In 2007, the software and related services sector experienced a real
annual growth rate of 14%, compared with a real annual growth
rate of 2% for all US industries. This sector has outpaced the rest of
the economy in each year since 2003. [Source: OECD, STAN
Database for Structural Analysis, ed. 2008]
EXPLOSIVE GROWTH FORECASTED IN “BRIC”
COUNTRIES:
PC sales in the so-called “BRIC” markets (Brazil, Russia, India, and
China) are projected to grow by 43% between 2009 and 2012 to a
total of more than $66 billion. By comparison, PC sales are
projected to grow only 2% in the United States; Central, Eastern,
and Western Europe; and Japan collectively in this timeframe.
Over the same period, packaged software sales in the BRIC
markets are projected to rise by 44% to a total of nearly $22 billion.
By comparison, packaged-software sales are projected to grow
15% in the United States; Central, Eastern, and Western Europe;
and Japan collectively in this timeframe. By 2011, the BRIC markets
will account for 25% of global PC sales and 6% of packaged software
sales. [Source: IDC]
In the United States, IT was
responsible for two-thirds of total
factor growth in productivity between
1995 and 2002, and virtually all of the
growth in labor productivity. [Source:
Information Technology Industry
Foundation]
BSA’s publicly traded member
companies spent nearly $43 billion on
R&D in 2008, equal to 7.1% of their
collective revenues. Many of BSA’s
member companies invested double
or triple that percentage of their
revenues in 2008. [Source: Business
Software Alliance]
And where does the drive for
that dynamical process come
from??? Small and Medium
sized businesses.
MicroISVs – YOU !!!
The „big“ picture and its main
contributor – the MicroISV !
9. Companies and the end
consumer- writing software
for who`s infrastructure?
The broadband access of
companies is very high in all
of Europe so there definitely
is a gap between the potential
suppliers of software and
their customers. The
individual programmer will
have to decide to which
market he is willing and able
to serve. For that he has to
undergo intensive training
and testing…
10. IT-Productivity in the EU
The few and …
chosen?...among us who
actually produce software.
How many are they?
The Software industry is still
based on few persons that
actually have the skills to write
software (or even to create own
content on web portals etc) and
to fulfill the tasks necessary. We
can see that from the second (and
don`t worry last) statistic from
the EU. The degree of
productivity is very different with
Estonia leading the stats –
partially parallel to the built- up
infrastructure we have seen in
the stats before, but it seems that
there are other elements playing
a role such as the level of
education; priority by the local
European governments, and
awareness of modern technology.
Factors that are not exactly
related to the economic numbers
of one country.
11. Some voices on the
software industry
Big and small
A short zoological excursion:
Which big and small combination describes you best:
Or
“Security software vendors that have a
balanced mix of channel, new license and
maintenance revenue streams and flexibility
in contractual terms, such as software as a
service (SaaS), open source and outsourcing,
have the strongest options for continued
growth and to even out the risk”
… The consumer security software market
remains the largest security software
segment, with 2010 revenue projected to
reach $4.2 billion in 2010, up from $3.9
billion in 2009. The endpoint protection
platform (enterprise) market is the No. 2
security software segment, with revenue on
pace to reach $3 billion in 2010, up from
$2.9 billion in 2009.
Credit: Gartner/Contu
“As a professional engineer, designing with
steel beams, am I going to trust *anything*
to do my calculations that only costs $2? If
my beam collapses, do I blame the $2
program in court?”
Credit Gary Elring – Elfringsoft.com
13. Think broad, stay agile,
act big
Just think what made this
computer great and what enabled
its victory building up new
industries and enourmous
wealth ...well the answer is
SOFTWARE. And grasping the
potential that the „technology“ of
our times is offering is an
extremely important here.
Networking your ideas and getting
inspired within a group of creative
people that understand your
visions and ideas, sharing
knowledge to step ahead – that is
where we come in. And I am sure
that this 10th
European Software
Conference will contribute to this
effort for not only foreseeing
future (income) but also for
actually building it!
14. Some trend speculations
for our Software Industry
1. Development of a Common
communications infrastructure – which can
be accessed through different devices and
technologies, removing sources of exclusion
and discrimination, allowing the supporting
technologies to ‘draw in’ new people and
uses and put them in greater touch with one
another.
2. Evolution towards Computing as a
ubiquitous utility - putting computing on the
same footing as water, power and
telecommunications.
3. The emergence of the Intelligent Web: -
describing the deployment of existing
technologies providing ‘intelligence’ to the
protocols, structures and internal functions of
the Internet itself, rebalances responsibilities
and contributions of different stakeholders to
overall socioeconomic impacts and creates a
powerful ‘pull’ factor for further
technological, economic, financial and social
innovation..
Credit:Rand for EU Comm TR776
15. Scenarios for our Software
Industry
1. Scattered World (closed, private,
competition); reflect a future of
cutthroat monopolistic competition,
unrestrained by active and effective
antitrust and other regulation.
2. Connected World (open, public,
collaboration) paints a future where
companies collaborate both
domestically and internationally,
facilitated by governments who take a
cooperative lead in setting rules to
optimise global public value creation.
3. Borderless World (open, private,
competition) depicts a world in which
systems connect. It is basically a world
where global standards emerged from
a shake-out of less favoured standards,
and are self-enforcing by virtue of
strong customer and user preferences
for products that connect to the
enormous global investment
represented by the Internet.
Credit:Rand for EU Comm TR776
16. And so all the scary data and insights point to the
MicroISV … to us and that REALLY is scary!!!
17. Enjoy and learn – Opening all senses!
The 10th European SoftwareConference
