- Amazon's CTO outlined the case for 'edge computing', where data is processed locally on devices rather than in the cloud, due to laws of physics, economics, and regulations. This validates the growing concept of edge computing. - Key questions include how Amazon will price its new Greengrass edge computing software over time, and whether it will extend further beyond the cloud. - Asian appetite for acquiring European tech companies has grown strongly since 2014, with Japan and China driving most deals. The UK is the primary target, though networks between Asia and Europe are still developing.

1. 15 June 2017
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Atomico Need-to-Know

2. This is a regularly-updated collection of things we
(@atomico) found interesting and important in tech and VC
land, but that didn’t necessarily get the attention they
deserve. We think of them as our hidden little gems. We’ll
add to the collection over time, so bookmark the page and
keep coming back for updates or to dig into the archive.
Lovingly put together by @twehmeier & @stephen2206
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3. ● If CFIUS does indeed enforce stronger regulatory control over M&A and
investment activity, will we see retaliatory moves from China (& other states)?
● Given that there have already been murmurings of increased scrutiny of sources of
FDI in tech in Europe, how will Europe respond to any move by the US?
● What impact will national competition have on the war for talent in AI?
● AI is increasingly not only the most important battleground for tech giants,
corporates and startups, but now increasingly between nation states that have
come to understand that AI represents the most important technology wave of the
future
● The Chinese government sees AI as highly strategic to its desire to establish the
country as a global technology superpower and has been supporting heavy
investment at home and overseas to build its own capabilities and access to the
technology of others
● The US is the largest destination for Chinese FDI, amounting to ~$46B in 2016
and $22B YTD in 2017. According to CB Insights, China has made 29 investments
US AI companies since 2012.
● There are also discussions about how to retain US-educated talent in the US
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What do you need to know?
Why does it matter?
Key questions
● Reuters has reported that the US appears set to increase scrutiny of Chinese
investment into domestic tech companies as a means protect “sensitive
technologies seens as vital to US national security”
● Chinese investment in AI is said to raise the largest concerns, due to fears that
Chinese access to US-developed AI tech could advance its military capabilities
and also help boost its position in industries considered “strategic” through
technology transfer enabled by this investment activity. There are also fears of an
opportunity cost, if tech backed by Chinese investors is deemed ‘off limits;
● Increased scrutiny would likely come from a strengthened role for the Committee
on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), an inter-agency body that can
review acquisitions, investments, minority stakes and JVs with foreign investors.
This follows a review by the Pentagon that warned of China skirting US oversight.
Historically, CFIUS has blocked Chinese attempts to acquire US-based
semiconductor companies (e.g. Aixtron, a Germany co with a US subsidiary)
US considering restricting Chinese investment in AI
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-artificialintelligence-idUSKBN1942OX
https://www.recode.net/2017/4/12/15256430/chinas-vc-investment-us-tech-startups
"Artificial intelligence is one of many leading-edge technologies that China seeks and
that has potential military applications. These technologies are so new that our export
control system has not yet figured out how to cover them, which is part of the reason
they are slipping through the gaps in the existing safeguards"
Aide to US Senator John Cormyn
(who is drafting legislation to amend CFIUS powers)

4. AI Will Make Apps Smarter
As in smartphones, ML/AI development will
make apps smarter. For instance, Nuance
showed off a parking app that understands
if it is raining, if you require an electric
charger, or if there are space limitations
when determining the optimal parking
space available for your specific
circumstance.
In Terms Of Sensor Hype, V2X
Is On An Uptrend, Lidar On A
Downtrend
There was much more talk of the use
cases for V2V and V2I at this conference
than years past, while Lidar, which rode a
severe hype cycle the past couple of years
appears to be being viewed more
skeptically by industry participants that
grow impatient waiting for low cost solid
state Lidar development, as mechanically
oriented Lidar is a non-starter in the real
world, and development of higher quality
radars is increasing.
Value Chain Convergence
There was a lot of talk at the conference
about OEMs, dealers, banks, insurance
companies, and essentially the entire value
chain of car ownership working much
closer together in the future as the industry
transforms more into a service oriented
business.
● TU-Automotive Detroit is the world’s largest event covering the connected car and
autonomous vehicle space. For the past three years, it’s been dominated by the
industry’s major forces of transformation: autonomy, Internet connectivity,
electrification and ride sharing/car sharing business models
● Based on evidence from the event, the major auto OEMs and ‘tier 1’ suppliers to
the industry are clearly making “incremental progress” in how to address the
challenges and opportunities created by these technology trends. It’s also clear
that the industry is making in moving from ideas in PowerPoint to real-world efforts
● Outside of the conference, Tim Cook finally confirmed that Apple is working on
autonomous systems and views AI for AVs as “the mother of all AI projects”. It
increasingly looks like both Apple and Alphabet/Waymo appear to be positioning
themselves as software providers to auto industry, rather than as “hardware
manufacturers.
● Where are the open spaces for startups to create value as the auto value chain
continues to evolve and - perhaps more importantly - as the shifts created by auto
impact more broadly into adjacent industries?
● What role will simulation technology play in the advancement of autonomous
vehicle technology, can it accelerate time-to-market and how will regulators view
the robustness of technology that has been tested and validated in simulated
environements, rather than through rubber actually meeting the road?
● As the industry builds a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of
connectivity and autonomy, it’s becoming clearer where the obstacles to adoption
may lies and, as a result, where there are potential opportunities for new entrants
to tackle those problems
● As one example, the importance of simulation technology to complement data
collection in the real world is emerging as an area of focus that is likely to attract
significant investment, from incumbents, tech giants, as well as from startups
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What do you need to know?
Why does it matter?
Key questions
Auto industry convenes to discuss hurdles to AV launch
Single Greatest Impediment To
Autonomous is Validation, Simulators
Will Be Required
Various statistics suggest that it will essentially be
impossible to validate an autonomous car platform on
real roads in a manner that would allow a consumer to
use the car anywhere. For this reason, the industry is
moving towards using simulators to enhance real world
driving validation. Both Mobileye and University of
Michigan, and probably others, have developed at least
rudimentary simulators. It is unclear to what
degree regulators will trust simulated data for validation,
but it is clear that the simulators will need to be
massively “photorealistic”, which essentially means yet
another end market for GPUs.
Monetization of Data
OEMs have a much clearer picture on how
to monetize the data from their fleets of
connected cars. The first order purchasers
of this data are likely insurance companies
(to prove liability and price services more
accurately), dealers (in order to increase
proactive maintenance), and radio stations
(to improve the quantitative measures of
listenership). BMW announced at the show
that it is now sharing car data in Germany,
and it looks forward to seeing other types
of third parties that may have an interest.
Commercial Transportation Will
Be Just As Transformed
Commercial transportation companies are
looking at automation to address the
drastic labor shortage and improve ROI,
and many believe autonomous technology
will become ubiquitous in commercial
transport long before consumer
automobiles because of the strict focus on
ROI vs. emotional attachment. Testing for
“platooning” in Michigan this year, which
allows trucks to travel within 20 feet of each
other to save on fuel costs through the use
of autonomous technology.
Source: Raymond James

5. What do today’s auto OEMs agree on in terms of trends?
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Source: Raymond James

6. ● Will we start to see a greater convergence between the multiples of
games companies and other Internet tech categories to erode the
significant discount that has typically been applied to games
companies due to concerns over revenue volatility and
sustainability?
● If games is increasingly viewed as a ‘service’, will this attract back
investors that have been less focused on games as a category in the
past 4-5 years?
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What do you need to know?
Why does it matter?
Key questions
● Goldman Sachs issued a research report outlining the case for a
major shift in their valuation methodology for games companies,
moving towards a model that looks at a longer forecast horizon
● The decision was based on a “structural transformation” of the
games industry that has seen traditionally highly volatile earnings
dependent on hits has been replaced with more predictable and
stable recurring revenue streams
● As a result, it believes long-term EPS outlook is ‘more pertinent to
valuations than the near-term EPS outlook’, based on considerations
such as IP portfolio, games development pipeline, and cost of
development.
GaaS: games-as-a-service finds love at Goldman
“The games sector is changing from one where
earnings are volatile due to the large impact of title
success/failure to one notable for sustainable sales
and high contribution margins driven by growth in
users (via smartphone and console penetration) and
game item sales. We see the sector taking on more
service and media content attributes and shedding
its product sales business model, and accordingly
switch to a valuation method based on FY3/21E
EV/NOPAT (in line with our internet sector) from our
previous two-year forward P/B-ROE method. With this,
we update our target prices.”
Source: Goldman Sachs equity research
https://www.ft.com/content/b53d239e-503a-11e7-a1f2-db19572361bb
● This is ultimately an indicator that lags a trend that companies, such
as Supercell, King and Rovio have shown to be true: it’s possible to
build loyal, highly-engaged customer bases that can generate
sustainable revenue streams over a long period (5+ years).

7. Top 50 US companies have $925B in overseas cash
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What do you need to know?
● Trump’s tax reform is expected to spur companies that have
been stockpiling cash overseas to bring money home
● Trump proposed a one time 10% tax rate on offshore earnings
regardless of whether the companies actually repatriate their
income
● The 50 top overseas cash holders in the S&P 500 have parked
$925 billion of their cash and marketable securities outside the
U.S.
Why does it matter?
● The repatriated money could be used on share buybacks,
dividends, acquisitions and capital spending.
● Tech companies would be the biggest beneficiaries: Apple,
Microsoft and Cisco Systems alone have a total of $427 billion
stored overseas. Top 5 companies by overseas cash holdings
are all tech companies and sit on aggregate $535B
Key questions
● What are the most likely strategies that are going to be adopted
by big cash holders?
● Given overseas cash holdings have helped drive overseas
M&A activity, will there be any impact if cash is repatriated?
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-overseas-profits/

8. ● Will the debate over raising barriers to foreign investment and
acquisition of European tech companies get louder?
● Is it better to continue to focus on building Europe’s tech ecosystem
through ‘training and skills, investment in digital infrastructure and
the efficiency of local capital markets’?
● How can European tech strengthen its networks and relationships in
Asia to build stronger bridges to the region?
● Per GP Bullhound, “Asia-to-Europe tech M&A is part of a broader
trend, driven by a quest for growth, tech convergence, the rising
pace of innovation, the race for IP and talent and the low cost of
capital”
● GP Bullhound found no systematic evidence that Asian buyers
‘systematically’ pay a premium in Europe. Transaction drivers are
seen as accessing new geos, sharing innovation and consolidation
of the value chain
● Per the report, “Asia-to-Europe dealmaking in tech is still in its
relative infancy and networks and relationships are still being built”
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What do you need to know?
Why does it matter?
Key questions
● Asian appetite for European technology acquisitions has been
growing strongly since 2014 and in 2016 came close to the level
seen from North America by deal value
● Japan & China have driven largest share of M&A of European
targets by Asian buyers.
● UK companies have been the primary targets for Asian buyers (30
out of 49 acquisitions.
GP Bullhound digs into Asia-to-Europe tech M&A trends
Source:
https://www.gpbullhound.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/GP-Bullhound-research-Asian-Horizons
-2017.pdf
“Asian acquisitions of European technology
companies more than doubled from 2014 to 2016
from 22 deals to 49 and the deal value increased 30
times to $50.4bn. This added to the already strong
appetite from the US for European tech. The main
drivers for this growth are Softbank’s major strategic
bets and the rise in both the volume and the size of
acquisitions by Chinese buyers, running in parallel to
China’s digital economy strategies. This fast-developing
landscape presents new opportunities and challenges
for the growing European tech ecosystem.”

9. GP Bullhound: Charts and graphics
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Source: https://www.gpbullhound.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/GP-Bullhound-research-Asian-Horizons-2017.pdf

10. ● Will we see Amazon move further into areas that extend beyond the
cloud?
● What long-term pricing model will adopt for Greengrass, will it move
to its preferred consumption-based model over time, or stick to the
initial per-device/unit licence model?
● Coming from AWS, the king of cloud data processing, this is a huge
validation of the concept of edge computing, or local data processing
that takes place on the ‘device’, whatever form that may take.
● This is a very useful framework for thinking about how companies
might approach data processing and whether it should happen in the
cloud, or locally on end-user devices
●
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What do you need to know?
Why does it matter?
Key questions
● Amazon’s CTO, Werner Vogels, published a blog outlining reasons
why and use cases when local data processing (i.e. on the device,
not in the cloud) is valuable and necessary
● Vogels outlines three reasons (“laws”) that he and AWS expect to
hold even as technology improves: ‘Law of Physics’, ‘Law of
Economics’ and ‘Law of the Land’.
● These laws essentially equate to the importance of 1) latency &
impact on decision-making speed 2) ROI on transmitting and
processing lower-value data in the cloud 3) regulation/compliance in
determining how and where data should be stored and processed
AWS/Vogels make a case for the value of ‘edge computing’
Source: http://www.allthingsdistributed.com/2017/06/unlocking-value-device-data-aws-greengrass.html
https://staceyoniot.com/how-to-think-about-aws-greengrass-and-the-internet-of-things/

11. M&A wrap up
Acquiror Target Target desc. Amt Comments
Alibaba TicketNew Online ticket sales (India) $35M
Alibaba increasingly investing into its Indian market presence. TicketNew specialised in
cinema ticket sales. Acquisition made via Alibaba Pictures, Ali’s movie business
Porsche Automobil PTV Planung
Traffic planning and management
software
€300M
Software for transport logistics, as well as traffic planning and management. PTV, based in
Karlsruhe, Germany. €93M revenue in last financial year. Growing at “double digit”
amounts. 700 employees in 20 locations. Porsche is seeking to position itself to be a key
provider of mobility services beyond the sales of vehicles in the longer term.
LexisNexis Ravel Law Legal research analytics n/a
Ravel Law had raised $9M from investors incl. NEA, but not raised publicly since February
2014.
Boston Logic Propertybase
CRM & marketing SaaS for real estate
agents and developers
n/a
Berlin-based Propertybase acquired for an undisclosed sum. Propertybase had built a CRM
solution on top of Salesforce targeted specifically at the real estate industry. Interesting to
see an application built on top of SF’s developer platform be acquired, even if at likely small
amount. Propertybase had raised undisclosed sums back in 2011 from HTGF
Caterpillar Yard Club
Online heavy equipment rental &
management technology
n/a
Acquisition will support Caterpillar’s digital offering. Yard Club did $120M GMV in 2016.
Caterpillar has been seeking to transform itself
Softbank
Boston
Dynamics/
Shaft
Smart robotics x 2 n/a
SoftBank, which has already positioned itself as a leader in robotics (Pepper), acquired two
businesses to further strengthen its capabilities in smart robotic tech (robots + AI). Boston
Dynamics was acquired from Alphabet, while it also acquired a local Japanese player,
Shaft as part of the deal. Terms of the deal were not disclosed
StarHub
Accel
Systems &
Tech
Cybersecurity systems integrator $14M
StarHub, the Singaporean telco, has acquired 51% stake in Accel to broaden its portfolio of
cybersecruity services for enterprise customers. It’s yet another sign that the global teclo
community is seeking to expand its offering beyond basic connectivity services.
Hogg Robinson eWings
SaaS platform for travel booking and
management
n/a
Hogg Robinson acquired Berlin-based eWings to build its digital travel management
capabilities. HRG was founded in 1845 and is valued at ~$290M, or 0.7x revenues,
reflecting its profile as a largely offline, legacy business in the travel management space
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