The document discusses sales forecasting for a company. It defines a sales forecast as a prediction of expected sales based on past performance and market conditions. Some key benefits of sales forecasting include enhanced cash flow, production planning, and identifying sales trends. Factors that influence forecasting include the market size, market share, existing/new contracts, and economic predictions. Common forecasting techniques include analyzing historical data, manager/executive judgment, and forecasting methods like using past sales percentages or growth projections. The document outlines data needed for an accurate forecast, including economic/market information, products/services, the business model, customer segments, and past revenue/sales opportunities.

1. Sales Forecast

2. Objective
Draw up
sales forecast and budget
for year …….

3. Sales Forecast defined
• The Sales Forecast is the expected level of company sales
based on a chosen marketing plan and an assumed marketing
environment
• A sales forecast is a prediction based on past sales
performance and an analysis of expected market conditions
• It's a self-assessment tool that uses past and current sales
statistics to intelligently predict future performance.
• Sales forecasting involves predicting the amount people will
purchase, given the product features and the conditions of
the sale

4. Benefits of sales forecasting
• Enhanced cash flow
• Knowing when and how much to buy
• In-depth knowledge of customers and the products they order
• The ability to plan for production and capacity
• The ability to identify the pattern or trend of sales
• Determine the value of a business above the value of its
current assets
• Ability to determine the expected return on investment
• See how well you are stacked against industry average

5. Company Wide Benefits
• Increased revenue
• Increased customer retention
• Decreased costs
• Increased efficiency

6. Factors that affect sales forecasting
• Market Potential/Size
• Market Share
• Sales contracts that won't be renewed
• New sales contracts that are on the horizon
• Industry analysts' predictions for growth or shrinking in your
market segment
• Economic analysts' predictions for the increased or decreased
buying power of consumers in your market
• Political changes that could affect government contracts
• Direct and indirect competition
• Consumer earnings

7. Forecasting Techniques
• Historical Data
– Prior Period
– Moving Average
– Decomposition
• Manager’s Judgment
• Executive Judgment

8. Forecasting Methods
1. For predictable /stable monthly Sales
– Sales Forecast=Past Sales+%age of inflation
2. For cyclical Monthly Sales
– Suppose, for instance, that a short-term forecast is being made for the
month of December. For some past years now sales in December have
totalled 15% of annual sales. During the same period, August sales
have averaged 10 percent of annual sales.
– Sales during the previous August wN10,000,000ere N10,000,000.
– N10,000,000 / .10 = N100,000,000(estimated annual sales)
– Projected sales for December will be 15% of N100,000,000(or
N15,000,000).
– Sales for other months can be forecast in the same way.

9. Forecasting Methods cont’d
3. Annual Sales Forecast
– Last Years’ Sales (N100,000,000)
– Guaranteed contracts (N5,000,000)
– Projected Growth for next year (10%)
– Sales forecast= 5,000,000+ 100,000,000+10%X 100,000,000=115,000,000

10. DATA COLLATION & ANALYSIS

11. How close to the truth do you want to come sir?

12. Data Needed
• Economic Environment of Business
– PEST
• Products and Services
• Business Model
– OTC & MRC
• Market Segments
– Industries Served
• Last 3 years revenue
– By Product
– By Segment
– By Industry

13. Data Needed
• Next year growth drivers
– By Product
– By Segment
– By Industry
• Sales Opportunity funnel
– By Product
– By Segment
– By Industry
• Risk Analysis
– By Product
– By Segment
– By Industry/Clients

14. FORECASTING

15. Femi Olaiya
femi@redwdood-consulting.com