The document covers trends in economic development, highlighting the evolving role of economic developers amid globalization, technological advancements, and demographic changes. It emphasizes the need for skills in talent management and community engagement as job paradigms shift towards self-employment and gig economies. The presentation also cautions against relying on outdated methods while suggesting that adaptability and understanding of future trends will be crucial for successful economic development.

1. TRENDS IN ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
Tennessee Basic Economic Development
Course
Rob Bencini, MBA, CEcD
April 28, 2014

2. Rob Bencini, MBA, CEcD
• Achieved CEcD Designation in 2008
• Author of ED Plans and Policies
• Economic Futurist
• Author: “Pardon the Disruption. The
Future You Never Saw Coming”

3. P

4. Baseline
• You will hear things in this presentation today
that you have never heard before (and may never
hear again). Put it in context for your benefit.
• Presentation style
– My speech
– Interactive/Questions
• I tried to use TN examples where I could.
Otherwise, I use NC data to make the point.
• Some of the economic projections are less than
cheery. Don’t regard that as negative. Better to
be prepared than blindsided.

5. What Will We Cover Today?
• Basic Economic Development Themes
• STEEP Trends Affecting the ED Landscape
• View Historic Economic Development
Practices Through the Lens of Current Trends
• Your new role you never expected to fill
• Developing your Economic Development
persona
• Areas of Opportunity

6. Definition of Economic Development
• Economic development is the application of
public resources to stimulate private sector
investment.
• Economic development is the intersection at
which public policy and the private sector
come together for jobs, business and wealth
creation.

7. Definition of Economic Development
• Economic development is the creation of an
environment in which communities and their
citizens prosper and improve their quality of
life.
• Economic development is not simply an event,
it is an ongoing community process.

8. Six Key Economic Development
Concepts
• Globalization
• Sustainable Development
• Regionalism
• Cluster Development
• Workforce Capacity/Talent
• Community

9. Regionalism
• Benefits
– Greater capacity and resources
– Economy of scale
• Effective?
– Largely meaningless boundaries
– Lead city loses recognition to regional “brand”
– Unspoken competition still exists

10. Regionalism
AS LONG AS LOCATION MATTERS…
LOCATION MATTERS!

11. Cluster Development
1) When companies have the benefit of many or
all of the related components of what they
use nearby, raising efficiencies and synergies
among industry suppliers and, more so,
2) When they are surrounded by like companies,
creating a level of shared, yet competitive,
expertise and an ever-evolving higher level
of competence in that industry.
3) Interdependence is a critical factor.

12. Cluster Development
• Preferable clusters to consider for increased
emphasis is traditionally done through
Location Quotient (LQ) analysis.
• WARNING: Be sure that the industry you are
considering to develop is in a growth pattern –
or have a real good reason why it is being
chosen.

13. Cluster Development
• Cluster Benefits
– Focus local and regional resources
– Develop local expertise
– Develop industrial dominance
• Cluster Downsides
– Cluster evaporation
– Lack of business diversity
– Resources may prove to be badly allocated
– Poor understanding of cluster intent

15. Workforce Development
• Projected in 2010: By 2015, 85% of all jobs will
need post-secondary education.
• 40% of all recent college graduates are doing
work that takes no more than a high school
education.
• Clearly, we are in a period of transition.
• Talent Clusters vs. Industrial Cluster

16. Workforce Development
• “if you focus on jobs – not talent – you will
fail.” - Jon Roberts, TIP Strategies
• If the primary workplace attribute of your
citizens is the willingness to show up for work,
join 40 million other Americans competing in
the same role.

17. Community
Does Your Community Stand Out?
Demonstration Exercise

18. Quality of Place
How others, outside of your area,
think of you and your community.
(Everyone has a high “Quality of Life.” Just ask
them.)

19. TRENDS
• The trends we are about to discuss may not be
in the awareness zone – much less consistent
with the belief system – of the leaders you will
work with.

20. TRENDS
• Rise of the Global Economy
• Technological Advances Disrupting Old Models
• Revolution in Higher Education
• Real Estate Woes
• Huge Demographic Changes
• Urban Migration in the U.S.
• Private Sector Aversion to Hiring Full-Time Labor
• Rise of the “Proprietor” or “Gig” Economy

21. Global Trends

22. Global Economic Trends
• Technological advances have helped “flatten”
the world.
• China and India are growing faster than the
U.S.
• Europe and Japan are having difficulty
maintaining their populations and are
experiencing many of the same issues of an
aging population as the U.S.

23. Moore’s Law

24. Higher Education Due for Massive
Change

31. Massive Open Online Courses
• Khan Academy
• Udacity (Thrun)
• Coursera (100 partners, including Vanderbilt)
• EdX
• Saylor
• iTunes U
• Others (13 and counting)

32. Key Issues Moving Forward
DEGREE
or
KNOWLEDGE?
• How does a
potential
employer
ASSESS what
she needs?
How about the
student?

33. Real Estate Woes
• Internet sales growing 3x that of storefront
operations (more if gas and cars are left out).
• U.S. has 22 sf of retail space per person. #2 in
the world is Sweden, with 3 sf/person.
• The U.S. simply has an overbuilt retail
presence.
• Industrial. Got any empty space?
• Housing. Multi-generations in one.
Apartments.

34. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
• The U.S. is getting:
– Older
– Browner
– More Urban
• Millennials (aka Gen Y or Echo Boomers) will
dominate the workplace in ten years.

36. POPULATION MOBILITY
• Since the 2010 U.S. Census, North Carolina has
grown by 300,000 people. One half of the
population gain has been in two counties:
Wake (Raleigh) and Mecklenburg (Charlotte).
50 of the state’s 100 counties have lost
population since the census.

37. POPULATION MOBILITY
• In Tennessee, the state has grown by 150,000
since the 2010 Census. Seven counties:
Davidson, Hamilton, Knox, Montgomery,
Rutherford, Shelby and Williamson represent
105,000 of that gain. 43 of 95 counties lost
population.

38. Millennials
• Born between 1982 and 2000.
• Civic-minded, more liberal, not as money-
obsessed, networked, techno-savvy.
• Ditching television to watch on other devices.
• Not going to movies.
• Not getting drivers licenses or buying cars.
• Many still living with mom and dad.
• Not getting married and having kids.
• Not buying homes.

39. Data for your First Huge Challenge.
Toward a Self-Employed Economy.

42. Your First Huge Challenge
• The Economy has changed.
• The “Job” paradigm that began with the
Industrial Revolution is diminishing.
• There is a rapidly rising alternate
“workforce engagement” in lieu of
“jobs”.
• You now know this.

43. Your First Huge Challenge
• And your bosses still adhere to their
belief system to “create jobs” – which is
most unlikely.
• You must navigate between their virtually
unfulfillable demands - and where the
economy is actually headed.
• Sail wisely, captain.

44. Your Second Huge Challenge
Demonstration Exercise

46. Your Second Huge Challenge
• Your role of Economic Developer will be parts:
• Diplomat
• Networker
• Social media / tech expert
• Talent Manager
• Teacher
• Futurist / Driver of Change

47. Your Second Huge Challenge
• Community Developer
• Talent Developer
• Entrepreneurial advocate
• Oh, and then all that recruitment, retention,
existing business, site development, project
finance, marketing, regional, cluster, branding
stuff that’s already expected of you.

48. Establish Who You Are
• As we enter a new economic era, you will be
facing a different set of challenges than your
predecessors.
• Your skill set will need to be different – more
expansive.
• Most leaders’ expectations are based in the
old economy.
• What do you stand for?

49. Looking Around the Corner: The
Future of Economic Development

50. Changing Practices
This section highlights the changing nature of the
role of the economic developer. For example,
economic developers will take a larger role in
increasing and managing talent in their
communities, a skill that is related to demographics.
They will be called upon to harness the growing
power of technology, especially when it comes to
marketing. And they should develop and improve
their skills in systems management to facilitate new
kinds of incentives in a global economy.

51. Changing Metrics
In the future, metrics for economic development
will not be focused solely on job numbers. This
is especially important in terms of
understanding the freelancing and
entrepreneurial economy. Similarly, typical
measurements of human capital, such as
number of college degrees, will fade in
importance with new developments in
education. Sustainability will also become a
metric for competitiveness.

52. Changing Skills
In the future, economic developers will need to
take a lead role in leading change, in order to
connect their community to larger trends.
Economic developers will increasingly be the
drivers of change, enabling their communities to
identify big trends and take advantage of them,
while managing associated risks.

53. Changing Competition
In a changing global economy, economic
developers will need (to) keep their
communities needs met, while also scanning the
larger scene for opportunities and hazards. The
global competition for talent will be fierce, and
smart economic developers will build on their
communities’ strengths to attract and retain
human capital. Education and quality of place
are two main strengths to build upon.

54. Conclusion
• In the next 10 to 15 years, it is probable that the
accelerated pace of worldwide development will continue,
aided by digital technology and a rising global middle class.
These changes in the worldwide economy and structure
will impact local economic developers differently. However,
EDOs and economic developers can incorporate tactics into
their practice to help prepare for the future.
• Cultivating an organizational and professional attitude of
nimbleness will keep EDOs ahead of trends and able to
adopt. The ability to pivot into different roles ensures that
EDOs will stay relevant. And, though it is a cornerstone of
economic development today, the ability to collaborate will
become even more important on a global scale.

55. Age of Uncertainty
• We are transitioning from one economy to
another.
• Technological advances are moving so rapidly we
can’t keep up with them
• Old style thinking is trying to regain their footing
by re-affirming the past - with what used to work.
• And because of the uncertainty, no one can say
for certain what actually will work to improve
conditions, so we succumb to the pressures and
the known commodity of the old think setting.

56. ED Don’ts
• Don’t try to induce a tourism cluster by
spending tons of money on an obscure
historical site or museum thinking it will
generate bill travel dollars. It won’t.
• Don’t undertake an ED planning process with
a company that will only encourage the
development of a business park. If you can do
it, you know it already. Save your money.

57. ED Don’ts
• Unless you subscribe to the idea that every
job is a good job, be careful what you
incentivize.
“Incentivize what you want to look like –
what you want to become.” - Rob Bencini
• Don’t spend your limited marketing dollars on
building a “brand,” DVD’s to mail out,
pamphlets or magazine advertising.

58. Recap
• We are entering a new economic era – one
where rapid changes in technological
advances disrupt what we are used to.
• The old rules – the old ways of doing things -
will apply less and less. And we don’t know
what the new rules will be.
• The Job Paradigm is diminishing, largely
replaced by the Proprietor Economy.

59. Recap
• Consequently, the role of the Economic
Developer will change, to one that looks to
build community, network, focus on
entrepreneurial development, developing
talent (over jobs), and being a visionary for
his/her community.

60. Green Energy

61. 3-D Printers

62. Baxter

63. Coding

64. Jobs of the Future
• Atmospheric Water Harvesters
• Sharability Auditors – People who analyze
homes and businesses for sharable assets.
• Super Baby Designers
• Drone Traffic Optimizers
• Avatar Relationship Managers
• Bio-Meat Factory Engineers
• Hospital and Healthcare Dismantlers

65. Reading List
Wall Street Journal
The Economist
Wired
The Futurist
Good Morning Silicon
Valley
Kauffman Foundation
Thomas Frey
Next Big Future
The Elliott Wave Theorist
• Thomas Friedman
– The World is Flat
– Hot, Flat and Crowded
• Tom Peters
– Re-Imagine!
• Peter Diamandis/Kottler
– Abundance
• Rob Bencini
– Pardon the Disruption. The
Future You Never Saw
Coming.

66. Thank you!
• Contact Information:
• rbencini@earthlink.net
• www.robbencini.com
• @robbencini
• 336.215-1995

68. • Futurist advances