This document discusses risk management for projects. It defines risk as uncertain events that can positively or negatively impact project objectives. Risk management aims to recognize and manage potential issues. The key steps in the risk management process are: 1) identifying risks, 2) assessing risks through analyzing probability and impact, 3) developing responses like mitigating, avoiding, transferring or accepting risks, and 4) developing contingency plans. Contingency funds are also established to cover known and unknown risks. The overall goal is to reduce surprises and minimize negative consequences to improve chances of meeting project objectives.
The risk management for projects attempts to recognize and manage potential and unforeseen trouble spots which may occur when the project is implemented. It identifies as many risk events as possible. Further classification of risk factors help in resolving it either by mitigation, avoiding, transferring or retaining .Methods of handling risk.
· How should the risks be prioritized· Who should do the priori.docxalinainglis
· How should the risks be prioritized?
· Who should do the prioritization of the project risks?
· How should project risks be monitored and controlled?
· Who should develop risk responses and contingency plans?
· Who should own these responses and plans?
Introduction
This week, we will explore risk management. Risk management is one of those areas in project management that separates good project managers from great project managers. A good project manager makes risk management an integral part of every phase of project work. Risks are identified, prioritized, and understood. There are clear responsibilities within the team as to whose is responsible for implementing a risk response to reduce the impact should it occur. So let's get started.
What is Risk?
*Risk: An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on one or more project objectives.
Risks can be positive, meaning beneficial to the project, or they can be negative, meaning detrimental to the project.
Many students have a difficult time visualizing positive risks. A positive risk is an opportunity that may increase the probability of success, the return on investment, or the benefits of the project. They may also be ways to reduce project costs or ways to complete the project early. There may even be methods to improve project quality or overall performance. These are all examples of positive risks.
A negative risk can be easier to understand. It is the possibility that something will go wrong, a threat to the success of the project. It is important to remember that a risk is a possibility, not a fact. It is a potential problem. At GettaByte Software, there is the potential that a power outage would occur during data transfer. The potential exists that a key resource could become unavailable due to some unforeseen circumstance, like illness. Those are threats to the success of the project.
When buying a house to renovate, there are potential risks with respect to plumbing, wiring, the foundation, and so on.
A project manager needs to consider trying to make positive risks happen while trying to prevent negative ones from occurring. To do this, a project manager can take a proactive approach to risk management. This means he or she plans a risk response should it look as though the risk will become a reality. In this way, everyone knows exactly how to prepare and respond to the risk once it does become an issue.
The Risk Management Process
A project has both good and bad risks, which are referred to as positive and negative risks or opportunities and threats. For positive risks or opportunities, the project manager can choose from a range of risk responses. For threats, a project manager has a similar range of choices. The following, as described in the PMBOK® Guide, are the risk management processes.
Plan Risk Management:
· Risk Strategy
· Defines the general approach to managing risk on the project
· Methodology
· Defines the specific, tools, .
IntroductionThe standards of venture risk administration can be .docxmariuse18nolet
Introduction
The standards of venture risk administration can be expressed essentially. Any undertaking association is liable to risks. One which ends up in a condition of ceaseless emergency, is neglecting to oversee hazards legitimately. Disappointment to oversee risks is portrayed by failure to choose what to do, when to do it, and whether enough has been carried out. Hazard Management is an aspect of Quality, utilizing fundamental procedures of dissection and estimation to guarantee that risks are appropriately recognized, characterized, and oversaw.
Why a risk management plan was considered unnecessary?
As per the agreement honor, contracts around then did not oblige that a risk management arrangement be create while as per the backer the risk management arrangement was redundant on the grounds that the vast majority of the new weapon frameworks necessities are built by military staff who have no feeling of reality about what it takes to create a weapon framework focused around innovation which does not in any case exist yet. Agreeing Kerzner, in the prior days of the undertaking management on numerous business programs, the dominant part of task choices vigorously supported cost and calendar. This was on the grounds that we knew more about expense and planning than we did about the specialized Risks. Anyway then again it is fundamental that projects characterize and execute suitable risk management and emergency course of actions to improve program management adequacy and give program chiefs a key device to lessen life cycle costs (Kerzner, 2009).
Should risk management planning be performed in the proposal stage or after contract award, assuming that it must be done?
Risk management in other words risk management is utilized all through the program's life cycle and ought to be produced ahead of schedule in the system from the earliest starting point and tended to constantly all through the project. Risk management is not a different system work however part and package of the general project arranging and management process. Keeping in mind the end goal to be successful, the Risk management process must be perceived as a project management movement, and not something constrained to the designing capacity. Any system component connected with expense, timetable, and execution has an immediate interface with the Risk management process. This methodology does not change in a general sense as the project advances, albeit a few changes or modification may happen as the system advance (Kerzner, 2009).
Does the customer have the right to expect the contractor to perform risk analysis and develop a risk management plan if it is not called out as part of the contractual statement of work?
Yes the customer has all the rights to expect the contractor to perform a risk analysis and develop a risk management plan even if it is not mentioned in the proposal or anywhere in the project. This is because, the process of developing a risk management plan .
The risk management for projects attempts to recognize and manage potential and unforeseen trouble spots which may occur when the project is implemented. It identifies as many risk events as possible. Further classification of risk factors help in resolving it either by mitigation, avoiding, transferring or retaining .Methods of handling risk.
· How should the risks be prioritized· Who should do the priori.docxalinainglis
· How should the risks be prioritized?
· Who should do the prioritization of the project risks?
· How should project risks be monitored and controlled?
· Who should develop risk responses and contingency plans?
· Who should own these responses and plans?
Introduction
This week, we will explore risk management. Risk management is one of those areas in project management that separates good project managers from great project managers. A good project manager makes risk management an integral part of every phase of project work. Risks are identified, prioritized, and understood. There are clear responsibilities within the team as to whose is responsible for implementing a risk response to reduce the impact should it occur. So let's get started.
What is Risk?
*Risk: An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on one or more project objectives.
Risks can be positive, meaning beneficial to the project, or they can be negative, meaning detrimental to the project.
Many students have a difficult time visualizing positive risks. A positive risk is an opportunity that may increase the probability of success, the return on investment, or the benefits of the project. They may also be ways to reduce project costs or ways to complete the project early. There may even be methods to improve project quality or overall performance. These are all examples of positive risks.
A negative risk can be easier to understand. It is the possibility that something will go wrong, a threat to the success of the project. It is important to remember that a risk is a possibility, not a fact. It is a potential problem. At GettaByte Software, there is the potential that a power outage would occur during data transfer. The potential exists that a key resource could become unavailable due to some unforeseen circumstance, like illness. Those are threats to the success of the project.
When buying a house to renovate, there are potential risks with respect to plumbing, wiring, the foundation, and so on.
A project manager needs to consider trying to make positive risks happen while trying to prevent negative ones from occurring. To do this, a project manager can take a proactive approach to risk management. This means he or she plans a risk response should it look as though the risk will become a reality. In this way, everyone knows exactly how to prepare and respond to the risk once it does become an issue.
The Risk Management Process
A project has both good and bad risks, which are referred to as positive and negative risks or opportunities and threats. For positive risks or opportunities, the project manager can choose from a range of risk responses. For threats, a project manager has a similar range of choices. The following, as described in the PMBOK® Guide, are the risk management processes.
Plan Risk Management:
· Risk Strategy
· Defines the general approach to managing risk on the project
· Methodology
· Defines the specific, tools, .
IntroductionThe standards of venture risk administration can be .docxmariuse18nolet
Introduction
The standards of venture risk administration can be expressed essentially. Any undertaking association is liable to risks. One which ends up in a condition of ceaseless emergency, is neglecting to oversee hazards legitimately. Disappointment to oversee risks is portrayed by failure to choose what to do, when to do it, and whether enough has been carried out. Hazard Management is an aspect of Quality, utilizing fundamental procedures of dissection and estimation to guarantee that risks are appropriately recognized, characterized, and oversaw.
Why a risk management plan was considered unnecessary?
As per the agreement honor, contracts around then did not oblige that a risk management arrangement be create while as per the backer the risk management arrangement was redundant on the grounds that the vast majority of the new weapon frameworks necessities are built by military staff who have no feeling of reality about what it takes to create a weapon framework focused around innovation which does not in any case exist yet. Agreeing Kerzner, in the prior days of the undertaking management on numerous business programs, the dominant part of task choices vigorously supported cost and calendar. This was on the grounds that we knew more about expense and planning than we did about the specialized Risks. Anyway then again it is fundamental that projects characterize and execute suitable risk management and emergency course of actions to improve program management adequacy and give program chiefs a key device to lessen life cycle costs (Kerzner, 2009).
Should risk management planning be performed in the proposal stage or after contract award, assuming that it must be done?
Risk management in other words risk management is utilized all through the program's life cycle and ought to be produced ahead of schedule in the system from the earliest starting point and tended to constantly all through the project. Risk management is not a different system work however part and package of the general project arranging and management process. Keeping in mind the end goal to be successful, the Risk management process must be perceived as a project management movement, and not something constrained to the designing capacity. Any system component connected with expense, timetable, and execution has an immediate interface with the Risk management process. This methodology does not change in a general sense as the project advances, albeit a few changes or modification may happen as the system advance (Kerzner, 2009).
Does the customer have the right to expect the contractor to perform risk analysis and develop a risk management plan if it is not called out as part of the contractual statement of work?
Yes the customer has all the rights to expect the contractor to perform a risk analysis and develop a risk management plan even if it is not mentioned in the proposal or anywhere in the project. This is because, the process of developing a risk management plan .
With uncertainty comes opportunity. But if a project manager is consumed with managing the risks, there is little time to manage the opportunities. Good risk management is not about fear of failure; it is about removing barriers to success. This is when opportunity management emerges.
Develop options and determine actions to enhance opportunities and minimize threats to Departments/project objectives.Assign responsibility to individuals or parties for each risk response.
If a project manager is consumed with managing risk, there is little time to manage opportunities. Good risk management is not about fear of failure, it is about removing barriers to success. This is when opportunity management emerges.
As per PMBOK - "The whole point of undertaking a project is to achieve or establish something new, to venture, to take chances, to risk. Risk may have positive effects or negative effects on the project “Schedule” and/or “Cost”. Positive risks are Opportunities and negative risks are losses or threats; remember both risks are uncertain “percentage of occurrence less than 80%”. Risk Management purpose is to manage (Plan and implement) these uncertainties.
130 MASTERING RISK AND PROCUREMENT IN PROJECT MANAGEMENTre.docxjesusamckone
130 MASTERING RISK AND PROCUREMENT IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT
response plans. This proactive approach enables the project manager
time to think through responses and, in some cases, identify more
than one response where the project manager can use strategy as to
the best course of action. Proactive response planning also allows the
project manager time to document best responses and assign owner-
ship of particular risks to individuals who can carry out the response.
This is an efficient way the project manager can oversee risk response,
as preapproved responses can be assigned to individuals to be carried
out in the occurrence of a risk event and do not require subject matter
experts to use a cumbersome, last-minute decision process. Proactive
planning in risk responses is truly the best way to manage risk for
project activities; it gives the project manager much more control of
not only how to respond to risk, but who can assist in risk responses
being carried out correctly.
Both reactive and proactive response modes are the general
condition the project manager and project staff will be in based on
pre-project planning. In most cases, the assumption in risk response
planning is to address problems that will have a negative effect on
work activities and the project. Although in most cases this is true,
occasionally an issue can result in a positive outcome that was unex-
pected and will also need a response. Projects, then, have the poten-
tial of both negative and positive risks.
Negative Risks
Any influence that has a negative effect on a work activity is con-
sidered to be a negative risk and results in problems that will have to
be addressed. The project manager and other project staff evaluating
work activities for potential risks can generally spot areas that may
have a potential for a problem and will need a response plan to address
the risk, should it occur. There are four typical strategies the project
manager can use in addressing a risk event, which typically would take
into consideration the overall risk tolerance of the project and organi-
zation as well as options that might be available for response planning
and strategy project manager might use in a response that may affect
other work activities within the project.
05/20/2020 - RS0000000000000000000002125614 (Shantelle
Hildred) - Mastering Risk and Procurement in Project
Management
CHAPTER 5 • RISK RESPONSE STRATEGIES 131
• Avoid risk— Identify the root cause of a risk event and elimi-
nate or alter the conditions of the activity to create a new sce-
nario without the potential risk. This is simply eliminating the
risk before it happens and should be the best-case action in
response to a risk. The caution to the project manager and proj-
ect team for eliminating a risk is what actions have to be taken
to eliminate or alter a condition and what effects that could
have on the output deliverable for that work activity.
130 MASTERING RISK AND PROCUREMENT IN PROJECT MANAGEMENTre.docxRAJU852744
130 MASTERING RISK AND PROCUREMENT IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT
response plans. This proactive approach enables the project manager
time to think through responses and, in some cases, identify more
than one response where the project manager can use strategy as to
the best course of action. Proactive response planning also allows the
project manager time to document best responses and assign owner-
ship of particular risks to individuals who can carry out the response.
This is an efficient way the project manager can oversee risk response,
as preapproved responses can be assigned to individuals to be carried
out in the occurrence of a risk event and do not require subject matter
experts to use a cumbersome, last-minute decision process. Proactive
planning in risk responses is truly the best way to manage risk for
project activities; it gives the project manager much more control of
not only how to respond to risk, but who can assist in risk responses
being carried out correctly.
Both reactive and proactive response modes are the general
condition the project manager and project staff will be in based on
pre-project planning. In most cases, the assumption in risk response
planning is to address problems that will have a negative effect on
work activities and the project. Although in most cases this is true,
occasionally an issue can result in a positive outcome that was unex-
pected and will also need a response. Projects, then, have the poten-
tial of both negative and positive risks.
Negative Risks
Any influence that has a negative effect on a work activity is con-
sidered to be a negative risk and results in problems that will have to
be addressed. The project manager and other project staff evaluating
work activities for potential risks can generally spot areas that may
have a potential for a problem and will need a response plan to address
the risk, should it occur. There are four typical strategies the project
manager can use in addressing a risk event, which typically would take
into consideration the overall risk tolerance of the project and organi-
zation as well as options that might be available for response planning
and strategy project manager might use in a response that may affect
other work activities within the project.
05/20/2020 - RS0000000000000000000002125614 (Shantelle
Hildred) - Mastering Risk and Procurement in Project
Management
CHAPTER 5 • RISK RESPONSE STRATEGIES 131
• Avoid risk— Identify the root cause of a risk event and elimi-
nate or alter the conditions of the activity to create a new sce-
nario without the potential risk. This is simply eliminating the
risk before it happens and should be the best-case action in
response to a risk. The caution to the project manager and proj-
ect team for eliminating a risk is what actions have to be taken
to eliminate or alter a condition and what effects that could
have on the output deliverable for that work activity.
With uncertainty comes opportunity. But if a project manager is consumed with managing the risks, there is little time to manage the opportunities. Good risk management is not about fear of failure; it is about removing barriers to success. This is when opportunity management emerges.
Develop options and determine actions to enhance opportunities and minimize threats to Departments/project objectives.Assign responsibility to individuals or parties for each risk response.
If a project manager is consumed with managing risk, there is little time to manage opportunities. Good risk management is not about fear of failure, it is about removing barriers to success. This is when opportunity management emerges.
As per PMBOK - "The whole point of undertaking a project is to achieve or establish something new, to venture, to take chances, to risk. Risk may have positive effects or negative effects on the project “Schedule” and/or “Cost”. Positive risks are Opportunities and negative risks are losses or threats; remember both risks are uncertain “percentage of occurrence less than 80%”. Risk Management purpose is to manage (Plan and implement) these uncertainties.
130 MASTERING RISK AND PROCUREMENT IN PROJECT MANAGEMENTre.docxjesusamckone
130 MASTERING RISK AND PROCUREMENT IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT
response plans. This proactive approach enables the project manager
time to think through responses and, in some cases, identify more
than one response where the project manager can use strategy as to
the best course of action. Proactive response planning also allows the
project manager time to document best responses and assign owner-
ship of particular risks to individuals who can carry out the response.
This is an efficient way the project manager can oversee risk response,
as preapproved responses can be assigned to individuals to be carried
out in the occurrence of a risk event and do not require subject matter
experts to use a cumbersome, last-minute decision process. Proactive
planning in risk responses is truly the best way to manage risk for
project activities; it gives the project manager much more control of
not only how to respond to risk, but who can assist in risk responses
being carried out correctly.
Both reactive and proactive response modes are the general
condition the project manager and project staff will be in based on
pre-project planning. In most cases, the assumption in risk response
planning is to address problems that will have a negative effect on
work activities and the project. Although in most cases this is true,
occasionally an issue can result in a positive outcome that was unex-
pected and will also need a response. Projects, then, have the poten-
tial of both negative and positive risks.
Negative Risks
Any influence that has a negative effect on a work activity is con-
sidered to be a negative risk and results in problems that will have to
be addressed. The project manager and other project staff evaluating
work activities for potential risks can generally spot areas that may
have a potential for a problem and will need a response plan to address
the risk, should it occur. There are four typical strategies the project
manager can use in addressing a risk event, which typically would take
into consideration the overall risk tolerance of the project and organi-
zation as well as options that might be available for response planning
and strategy project manager might use in a response that may affect
other work activities within the project.
05/20/2020 - RS0000000000000000000002125614 (Shantelle
Hildred) - Mastering Risk and Procurement in Project
Management
CHAPTER 5 • RISK RESPONSE STRATEGIES 131
• Avoid risk— Identify the root cause of a risk event and elimi-
nate or alter the conditions of the activity to create a new sce-
nario without the potential risk. This is simply eliminating the
risk before it happens and should be the best-case action in
response to a risk. The caution to the project manager and proj-
ect team for eliminating a risk is what actions have to be taken
to eliminate or alter a condition and what effects that could
have on the output deliverable for that work activity.
130 MASTERING RISK AND PROCUREMENT IN PROJECT MANAGEMENTre.docxRAJU852744
130 MASTERING RISK AND PROCUREMENT IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT
response plans. This proactive approach enables the project manager
time to think through responses and, in some cases, identify more
than one response where the project manager can use strategy as to
the best course of action. Proactive response planning also allows the
project manager time to document best responses and assign owner-
ship of particular risks to individuals who can carry out the response.
This is an efficient way the project manager can oversee risk response,
as preapproved responses can be assigned to individuals to be carried
out in the occurrence of a risk event and do not require subject matter
experts to use a cumbersome, last-minute decision process. Proactive
planning in risk responses is truly the best way to manage risk for
project activities; it gives the project manager much more control of
not only how to respond to risk, but who can assist in risk responses
being carried out correctly.
Both reactive and proactive response modes are the general
condition the project manager and project staff will be in based on
pre-project planning. In most cases, the assumption in risk response
planning is to address problems that will have a negative effect on
work activities and the project. Although in most cases this is true,
occasionally an issue can result in a positive outcome that was unex-
pected and will also need a response. Projects, then, have the poten-
tial of both negative and positive risks.
Negative Risks
Any influence that has a negative effect on a work activity is con-
sidered to be a negative risk and results in problems that will have to
be addressed. The project manager and other project staff evaluating
work activities for potential risks can generally spot areas that may
have a potential for a problem and will need a response plan to address
the risk, should it occur. There are four typical strategies the project
manager can use in addressing a risk event, which typically would take
into consideration the overall risk tolerance of the project and organi-
zation as well as options that might be available for response planning
and strategy project manager might use in a response that may affect
other work activities within the project.
05/20/2020 - RS0000000000000000000002125614 (Shantelle
Hildred) - Mastering Risk and Procurement in Project
Management
CHAPTER 5 • RISK RESPONSE STRATEGIES 131
• Avoid risk— Identify the root cause of a risk event and elimi-
nate or alter the conditions of the activity to create a new sce-
nario without the potential risk. This is simply eliminating the
risk before it happens and should be the best-case action in
response to a risk. The caution to the project manager and proj-
ect team for eliminating a risk is what actions have to be taken
to eliminate or alter a condition and what effects that could
have on the output deliverable for that work activity.
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2. In the context of projects, risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it
occurs, has a positive or negative effect on project objectives.
For example, a cause may be a flu virus or change in scope requirements.
The event is that team members get stricken with the flu or the product
has to be redesigned. If either of these uncertain events occurs, it will
impact the cost, schedule, and quality of the project.
Risk management attempts to recognize and manage potential and
unforeseen trouble spots that may occur when the project is implemented.
Risk management identifies as many risk events as possible.
3. Risk Management Process
Figure 7.1 presents a graphic model of the risk management challenge. The chances
of a risk event occurring (e.g., an error in time estimates, cost estimates, or design
technology) are greatest during the early stages of a project.
FIGURE 7.1
Risk Event Graph
4. Risk management is a proactive approach rather than reactive. It is a
preventive process designed to ensure that surprises are reduced and that
negative consequences associated with undesirable events are minimized.
It also prepares the project manager to take action when a time, cost, and/or
technical advantage is possible.
Successful management of project risk gives the project manager better
control over the future and can significantly improve chances of reaching
project objectives on time, within budget, and meeting required technical
(functional) performance.
The sources of project risks are unlimited.
There are external sources, such as inflation, market acceptance, exchange rates,
and government regulations. In practice, these risk events are often referred to
as “threats” to differentiate them from those that are not within the project
manager’s or team’s responsibility area.
6. Step 1: Risk Identification
The risk management process begins by trying to generate a list of all the possible risks
that could affect the project.
1.Organizati
ons use risk
breakdown
structures
(RBSs) in
conjunction with
work breakdown
structures
(WBSs) to help
management
teams identify
and eventually
analyze risks.
7. Step 1: Risk Identification
2. A risk profile is
another useful tool. A
risk profile is a list of
questions that address
traditional areas of
uncertainty on a
project. These
questions have been
developed and refined
from previous, similar
projects
8. Step 2: Risk Assessment
Step 1 produces a list of potential risks. Not all of these risks deserve attention. Managers
have to develop methods for sifting through the list of risks, eliminating inconsequential or
redundant ones and stratifying worthy ones in terms of importance and need for
attention.
Scenario analysis is the easiest and most commonly used technique for analyzing risks.
Team members assess the significance of each risk event in terms of:
Probability of the event.
Impact of the event.
priorities, different kinds of impact scales are used. Some scales may simply use rank-
order descriptors, such as “low,” “moderate,” “high,” and “very high,” whereas others use
numeric weights (e.g., 1–10).
9. Probability Analysis:
There are many statistical techniques available to the project manager that can
assist in assessing project risk.
Decision trees have been used to assess alternative courses of action using
expected values.
Statistical variations of net present value (NPV) have been used to assess cash flow
risks in projects.
Correlations between past projects’ cash flow and S-curves (cumulative project
cost curve—baseline—over the life of the project) have been used to assess cash
flow risks.
PERT (program evaluation and review technique) and PERT simulation can be used
to review activity and project risk.
10. Figure 7.5 provides an
example of how
impact scales could
be defined given the
project objectives of
cost, time, scope, and
quality.
11. The risk matrix
presented in Figure 7.7
consists of a 5 × 5 array of
elements with each element
representing a different set
of impact and likelihood
values.
The risk severity
matrix provides a basis for
prioritizing which risks to
address. Red zone risks
receive first priority
followed by yellow zone
risks. Green zone risks are
typically considered
inconsequential and
ignored unless their status
changes.
12. Step 3: Risk Response Development
(Develop a strategy to reduce possible damage)
When a risk event is identified and assessed, a decision must be made concerning which
response is appropriate for the specific event. Responses to risk can be classified as
mitigating, avoiding, transferring, or retaining.
Mitigating Risk:
Reducing risk is usually the first alternative considered. There are basically two
strategies for mitigating risk:
reduce the likelihood that the event will occur
examples of reducing the probability of risks occurring are scheduling outdoor work
during the summer months, investing in up-front safety training, and choosing high-
quality materials and equipment.
13. Avoiding Risk
Risk avoidance is changing the project plan to eliminate the risk or condition.
Although it is impossible to eliminate all risk events, some specific risks may be
avoided before you launch the project. For example, adopting proven
technology instead of experimental technology can eliminate technical failure.
Transferring Risk
Passing risk to another party almost always results in paying a premium for this
exemption. Fixed price contracts are the classic example of transferring risk
from an owner to a contractor.
Another more obvious way to transfer risk is insurance.
Accept Risk
In some cases a conscious decision is made to accept the risk of an event occurring.
Some risks are so large it is not feasible to consider transferring or reducing the event
(e.g., an earthquake or flood).
14. (Develop contingency plans)
A contingency plan is an alternative plan that will be used if a possible foreseen risk event
becomes a reality.
The contingency plan represents actions that will reduce or mitigate the negative impact
of the risk event.
Like all plans, the contingency plan answers the questions of what, where, when, and
how much action will take place.
The absence of a contingency plan, when a risk event occurs, can cause a manager to
delay or postpone the decision to implement a remedy.
The availability of a contingency plan can significantly increase the chances for project
success.
Conditions for activating the implementation of the contingency plan should be decided
and clearly documented.
The plan should include a cost estimate and identify the source of funding.
All parties affected should agree to the contingency plan and have authority to make
commitments. Because implementation of a contingency plan embodies disruption in the
sequence of work.
Contingency Planning:
15. Some of the most common methods for handling risk are discussed here:
Technical Risks:
Technical risks are problematic; they can often be the kind that cause the project to be
shut down. What if the system or process does not work? Contingency or backup plans
are made for those possibilities that are foreseen.
Technology offers many methods for early testing and validation, ranging from 3-D
printing and holographic imagery for model building to focus groups and early design
usability testing for market testing .
Schedule Risks
Often organizations will defer the threat of a project coming in late until it
surfaces. Here contingency funds are set aside to expedite or “crash” the
project to get it back on track. Crashing, or reducing project duration, is
accomplished by shortening (compressing) one or more activities on the critical
path. This comes with additional costs and risk.
For example, schedules can be altered by working activities in parallel.
16. Cost Risks:
Projects of long duration need some contingency for price changes.
Funding Risks
Seasoned project managers recognize that a complete risk assessment must include
an evaluation of funding supply.
17. An opportunity is an event that can have a positive impact on project objectives.
The project management profession has identified four different types of response to an
opportunity:
Exploit.
This tactic seeks to eliminate the uncertainty associated with an opportunity to ensure
that it definitely happens. Examples : component to be purchased rather than developed
internally.
Share.
This strategy involves allocating some or all of the ownership of an opportunity to
another party who is best able to capture the opportunity for the benefit of the
project.
Examples, include establishing continuous improvement incentives for external
contractors or joint ventures.
Opportunity Management /positive risk
18. Enhance.
This tactic seeks to eliminate the uncertainty associated with an opportunity to ensure
that it definitely happens.
Accept.
Accepting an opportunity is being willing to take advantage of it if it occurs, but not
taking action to pursue it.
19. Contingency funds are established to cover project risks—identified and unknown.
When, where, and how much money will be spent is not known until the risk
event occurs.
In practice, the contingency reserve fund is typically divided into budget and
management reserve funds for control purposes.
Budget reserves are set up to cover identified risks; these reserves are those allocated
to specific segments or deliverables of the project.
Management reserves are set up to cover unidentified risks and are allocated to
risks associated with the total project.
The risks are separated because their use requires approval from different
levels of project authority.
Budget Reserve
These reserves are identified for specific work packages or segments of a project found in
the baseline budget or work breakdown structure. Thus, budget reserves decrease as the
project progresses.
Contingency Funding and Time Buffers
20. Management Reserves
These reserve funds are needed to cover major unforeseen risks and, hence, are applied
to the total project. These reserves are independent of budget reserves and are
controlled by the project manager and the “owner” of the project.
Time Buffers
Just as contingency funds are established to absorb unplanned costs, managers use time
buffers to cushion against potential delays in the project.
21. Step 4: Risk Response Control
Typically the results of the first three steps of the risk management process are
summarized in a formal document often called the risk register.
A risk register details all identified risks, including descriptions, category, and
probability of occurring, impact, responses, contingency plans, owners, and
current status.
Risk control involves executing the risk response strategy, monitoring triggering
events, initiating contingency plans, and watching for new risks.
22. A major element of the risk control process is change management. Every detail of a
project plan will not materialize as expected.
Change management systems involve reporting, controlling, and recording changes to the
project baseline. (Note: Some organizations consider change control systems part of
configuration management.)
In practice most change management systems are designed to accomplish the following:
1. Identify proposed changes.
2. List expected effects of proposed change(s) on schedule and budget.
3. Review, evaluate, and approve or disapprove changes formally.
4. Negotiate and resolve conflicts of change, conditions, and cost.
5. Communicate changes to parties affected.
6. Assign responsibility for implementing change.
7. Adjust master schedule and budget.
8. Track all changes that are to be implemented.
Change Control Management
