On Thursday 4 June, Matt Edwards, Head of Horizon Scanning and International and Dr Graham Willis, Head of Research and Development presented in the NHS Workforce Village at the NHS Confederation Annual Conference. The talk looked at the CfWI's work on its flagship Horizon 2035 programme and how developments in its methodology have been applied to work being carried out with the World Health Organisation on workforce modelling for the three Ebola-affected countries.

1. Rethinking workforce
planning: Horizon 2035
Dr. Graham Willis
Head of Research and Development, CfWI
Matt Edwards
Head of Horizon Scanning and International, CfWI

2. Rethinking health and care
workforce planning
Let’s begin with four embarrassing
admissions.

3. One
Focusing on only numbers doesn’t work.

4. Two
Focusing on only numbers doesn’t work.
We don’t know what skills and
competences are needed in future.

5. Three
Focusing on only numbers doesn’t work.
We don’t know what skills and
competences are needed in future.
We don’t know who is best to provide
them,

6. Four
Focusing on only numbers doesn’t work.
We don’t know what skills and
competences are needed in future.
We don’t know who is best to provide
them,
what they cost or if we can afford them.

7. Ebola crisis in West Africa

8. Recovery post-Ebola
Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone

9. Consider the whole system
Health
Public health
Social care
10% Other health and
support
21% Paid adult care
and support
24%
Volunteer adult
care and support
43%
Unpaid adult care
and support
2% Workforces modelled to date

10. Skills and competences
Competences
Skills
FacilitationLeadershipWellbeing
Knowledge Personal
Types of skill
Level of skill
Low to High
Quantitative skills
Qualitative skills

11. What drives the demand for skills?
Demand
for skills
Long-term
conditions
Infectious
diseases
Births
One-off
events

12. What drives the supply of skills?
Supply of
skills
Skill mix
Education &
training
Workforce
supply
Capacity
to learn

13. A new challenge: Horizon 2035
What skills and
competences do
we have?
What might we need
in future?

14. Robust strategic planning
Understand
the system
Explore
the future
Simulate the
possibilities
Make robust
responses
Focal
question
Transparent and participatory

15. Benefits of robust strategic planning
Avoid unexpected consequences
Evaluate how our strategies perform
across challenging futures
Produce robust solutions
Identify corrections to keep on track

16. Understand who has what skills, the
time spent on them and the cost
Prevent
Enable
Assess
Plan
Treat
Rehabilitate
Relieve
Link
Unpaid adult social care workforce
Nurses
Dentists
Medical generalists
Medical specialists
Volunteer care and support workforce
Other workforce groups
Workforce groups

17. Understand what the future might
bring so you are not surprised
Use horizon scanning to discover what
might be in the future.
Use scenarios to promote debate and
provide insight.
Uncover new ideas and options.

18. Explore the drivers of demand to
understand future workforce needs
What are the drivers of demand?
How might they change in future?
What is the uncertainty?

19. Population
Learning disabilities
Oral health
Singular demand for service
Maternal and perinatal
Infectious disease
Mental long-term conditions
Physical long-term conditions
Understand how the population
drives the demand for skills, the
proportions and costs

20. Understand how demand is met by
your workforce today
Understand which workforce groups
deliver what skills to meet demand.
How much might demand change in
future?
What are the workforce pressures?

21. Population
Learning disabilities
Oral health
Singular demand for service
Maternal and perinatal
Infectious disease
Mental long-term conditions
Physical long-term conditions
Skill level: 1 2 3 4 5
Understand how workforce skills
meet the demands of the population
Prevent
Enable
Assess
Plan
Treat
Rehabilitate
Relieve
Link
Unpaid adult social care workforce
Nurses
Dentists
Medical generalists
Medical specialists
Volunteer care and support workforce
Other workforce groups
Workforce groups Increasing concentration and experience

22. 5 Skill levels
4
3
2
1
Super-specialist
Specialist
Generalist
Increasing length
of training
Skill dimensions
Infographics to aid understanding
Learning disabilities
Oral health
Singular demand for service
Maternal and perinatal
Infectious disease
Mental long-term conditions
Physical long-term conditions
Demand sources
Medical Specialist

23. Infographics to aid understanding
Learning disabilities
Oral health
Singular demand for service
Maternal and perinatal
Infectious disease
Mental long-term conditions
Physical long-term conditions
Demand sources
Super-specialist
Specialist
Generalist
Up-skilling targets
Midwife

24. Understand which solution will
work best
Stress test your workforce plans
Which futures are the most challenging?
What is the most effective way to meet
future skills demand?
Is it affordable and value of money?

25. Future demand for skillsSkillhours/Year
(Billions)
2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036
Time (Year)
Probability: 80% 100%
Central estimate:

26. Big questions
Will the cost of meeting future health
and care needs be affordable?
Will this be value for money?
What is the best mix of people,
numbers and skills?
Not forgetting the future is uncertain!

27. Rethinking workforce
planning: Horizon 2035
Dr. Graham Willis
Head of Research and Development, CfWI
Matt Edwards
Head of Horizon Scanning and International, CfWI