Downloaded 37 times
Uploaded byC4WI
Insights into future skills and competences
The document outlines insights into future skills and competencies in the health workforce, focusing on workforce planning methodologies and data across Europe. It discusses the need for robust workforce planning and the identification of future skills and competencies needed in light of demographic changes and emerging health challenges. The report includes analyses of various health workforce groups and emphasizes the importance of adaptation and integration to meet the increasing complexity of healthcare demands by 2035.
More Related Content
Similar to Insights into future skills and competences
Insights into future skills and competences
- 1. Funded by theHealth Programme of the European Union Insights into future skills and competences Matt Edwards Head of Horizon scanning & International / EU JA HWF WP6 Leader, CfWI John Fellows Horizon scanning Consultant / EU JA HWF WP6 Content Lead, CfWI Joint Action Health Workforce Planning and Forecasting: Conference on improving planning methodologies & data across Europe 4 December 2014
- 2. Horizon scanning workat CfWI Approaches to futures thinking and horizon scanning, using scenarios to describe challenging but plausible futures that workforce planners need to address. Systems dynamics modelling and simulation of these scenarios, and policy analysis to identify workforce options that are robust against future uncertainty. Big Picture Challenges International Responses to Big Picture Challenges www.cfwi.org.uk | www.horizonscanning.org.uk Horizon 2035 Progress Update Horizon 2035 Prezi
- 3. Robust workforce planning Understand the system Explore the future Make robust decisions Simulate the possibilities Focal question Transparent and participatory
- 4. Number of pharmacists(full-time equivalent) 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Year Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CfWI outputs: Pharmacy example How uncertain is the future?
- 5. A new challenge:multiple workforces What skills and competences do we have? What might we need in future?
- 6. Not just workforcenumbers What skills and competences are needed? Competences Skills Wellbeing Leadership Facilitation Knowledge Personal Types of skill Level of skill
- 7. Population Learning disabilities Oral health Singular demand for service Maternal and perinatal Infectious disease Mental long-term conditions Physical long-term conditions A new framework Prevent Enable Assess Plan Treat Rehabilitate Relieve Link Skill level: 1 2 3 4 5 Horizon 2035 workforce groups Midwives Nurses Dentists Pharmacists Doctors Volunteer care and support workforce Other workforce groups Increasing concentration and experience
- 8. Framework + system= insights Numbers Skills Costs Supply Demand People and skills? Workforce groups? Training? Education? Money? Future challenges? Skills gap and overlaps? Idea skill mix?
- 9. Future demand forskills Skill hours/Year (Billions) Illustrative analysis 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Time (Year) Probability: 80% 100% Central estimate:
- 10.
- 11. Work package 6 Horizon scanning and qualitative Qualitative methods Future skills Pilot study
- 12. User guidelines –qualitative methods Horizon scanning and qualitative Examples of methods in use across EU e.g. scenarios Helps deal with inherent complexity and uncertainty of workforce planning Descriptions of health workforce planning and forecasting approaches for Belgium, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom 1 2 3 Published November 2014
- 13. User guidelines –qualitative methods Horizon scanning and qualitative Use alongside quantitative methods to achieve integrated approaches across Europe Recommends taking into account the different useful approaches for different contexts Methods can be used to systematically investigate different workforce futures and deal with uncertainty 4 5 6 Published November 2014
- 14. Robust workforce planning:EU JA HWF Understand the system Focal question Transparent and participatory
- 15. Future drivers andskills across Europe? D062: Report on Future Skills and Competencies Provide an estimation of the future needs of skills and competencies needed in the health workforce and their distribution. Drivers and trends
- 16. Future drivers andskills across Europe? 54 Horizon scanning interviews 264 Drivers collected and grouped Investigated systematically 7 CLDs Wellbeing skills
- 17. Visual key Tovisually communicate the framework and begin to consider spheres of control and influence in workforce planning we have adapted a diagram from Van der Heijden (2005) Scenarios – the art of conversation and linked this to a description of the contextual, transactional, working and focal environments. 7 indicative causal loop diagrams to summarise the interview information at a high level. These guide the identification of megatrends. Focal Skills and competence of the health workforce in 2035.
- 18. 1. Connecting andenabling technology Enable. Effective engagement with engaged ‘consumers’. Patient engagement/partnership/ empowerment. Interpretation of data/statistics. Interpersonal and communication skills. System performance data Availability of health information Patient activation Policy and regulation Professional interpretation Remote consultations Connectivity between patients and professionals Health and care data Remote monitoring ICT Population health literacy + ‘Big Data’ + + + + + + + + + + + + + Focal Working Transactional Contextual
- 19. 2. Demographic demand Relieve. Enable. Link. Chronic disease management/supported self-management. Coordination/linking skills. Multidisciplinary coordination and team working allied with generalist skills. Long-term care skills. Challenge to single disease framework. Communication skills. Multi-morbidity Focal Working Transactional Contextual Chronic conditions EU fertility rate Healthy cohort of older people Prevention EU life expectancy + = + + ‘Age’ of the population + = + - Economic and social inequality +
- 20. 2. Demographic demand Multi-morbidity Focal Working Transactional Contextual Chronic conditions Attach indicators which describe the current state or trend + EU fertility rate Healthy cohort of older people Prevention EU life expectancy + + = ‘Age’ of the population + = + - Economic and social inequality +
- 21. 2. Demographic demand Multi-morbidity Focal Working Transactional Contextual Chronic conditions EU fertility rate Healthy cohort of older people Prevention EU life expectancy + ‘Age’ of the population + + Economic and social inequality + 80 - 84 70 - 74 60 - 64 50 - 54 40 - 44 30 - 34 20 - 24 10 - 14 < 5 2035 2010 Source: Eurostat Source: Barnett et al, 2012
- 22. 3. Mobility Education,registration, licensing and regulation of skills. Workforce planning skills. Health system and workforce system incentives. Mobile health professionals Focal Working Transactional Contextual National skills distribution European skills distribution Health outcomes National skills requirements Mobile patient ‘consumers’ + + + European health market for skills + Freedom of movement +
- 23. 4. Productivity Enable.Self-care and self-management. Task allocation. Leadership skills. Productive teams. Focal Working Transactional Contextual GDP allocated to ‘healthcare’ Location of care Skill mix Resistance to change Complex comorbidities Public health expenditure Health system efficiency Patient/public expectations Gross Domestic Product Access to care Quality of care + - -
- 24. 5. Personalisation Assess.Enable. Treat. Communication of risk. Shared decision making. Translation of research developments. Task allocation. Focus Working Transactional Contextual Workforce productivity Behavioural sciences Population health literacy Personalised care Innovation genomics, Pharmaco-genetics Diagnostics Decision aids Industrial innovation Risk stratification + + Therapeutics + + + + + + + + Data collected by individuals +
- 25. 6. Future patients Assess. Enable. Prevent. Communication skills. Coaching skills. Broader skill base and competence of healthcare in the population. Mobility. Role changes or partnerships. Defensive medicine. Focus Working Transactional Contextual Proportion of types of care Ageing populations Complex demand Diverse populations Proportion of generalists to specialists Climate change + + + Disease profiles + + Patient activation Informed patients + +
- 26. 7. Supply Link.Cooperation. Task allocation. Supply of skills and competences. Workforce planning skills. Leadership skills. Multidisciplinary teams/integration. Workforce flexibility. Skill mix. Task shifting. Focus Working Transactional Contextual Induced demand Mobile health professionals Workforce roles Health workforce headcount Attractiveness of career Labour force Work-life balance expectations Age of the population - - - Workforce interaction Quality of care
- 27. 7. Supply Focus Working Transactional Contextual Induced demand Mobile health professionals Workforce roles Health workforce headcount Attractiveness of career Labour force Work-life balance expectations Age of the population - - - Workforce interaction Quality of care
- 28. Competence Europe MS Pre-workforce training Experience Experience Workforce group practising in a MS Workforce group practising in a different MS
- 29. Key shifts andpossible solutions? Integrated care 24/7 and tech enabled working 24/7 Care model shifts Secondary Care Patient and service user empowerment/activation/ self-management
- 30. New workforce rolesand prototyping Prototyping and discovering New roles and skills
- 31. Next steps Furtherprocessing of evidence. Funded by the Health Programme of the European Union 1 2 3 4 Produce a long report ahead of the 23rd April 2015 London meeting. Identify and draft 5 policy briefs with partners. Thanks to the continued support from EU JA and DG SANCO and WP6 partners.
- 32. Contact details MattEdwards Head of Horizon Scanning & International CfWI, England @ +44(0)7834 800 393 matt.edwards@cfwi.org.uk Funded by the Health Programme of the European Union John Fellows Horizon Scanning Consultant CfWI, England +44(0)7795 452 972 john.fellows@cfwi.org.uk euhwforce@cfwi.org.uk www.cfwi.org.uk | www.horizonscanning.org.uk
Editor's Notes
- #4 We want an approach that will allow us to create policies that are robust, that take account of the uncertainty of the future, and will lead to good outcomes. This is the framework we have developed. [explain] It is transparent and participatory. We wanted a method that open and easy to understand – unlike our previous Excel model which was a black box and impossible to understand. We also wanted to involve stakeholders in all stages. This is really important in situations that are highly political – and there is nothing more politically charged that the healthcare system. So, for example, they sense-check the model design and outputs. [If time: Chief dental officer story]
- #5 Red is supply, blue is demand. The fans show the spread of uncertainty from our Monte Carlo simulation. The outer light band is 95% probability. The good news is that we are not short of pharmacists The bad news is that we are training far more pharmacists than we need. Some pharmacists training today won’t get jobs in the future. We are spending money on training that might be better spent elsewhere. In every future there is over-supply – the desirable futures and the less desirable.