Research Frontiers in Space Weather, Part II

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UCAR - Atmospheric & Earth System Science

Dr. Thomas Zurbuchen discusses research frontiers in space weather. He notes that space weather is as important to space researchers as cancer is to biologists. His presentation covers the role of universities in fundamental research, modeling challenges like the University of Michigan's model, new distributed sensor network architectures using fleets of nanosatellites, and the educational challenge of training students in developing new technologies and analyzing data.

Science

Research Frontiers in
Space Weather, II
Dr. Thomas H. Zurbuchen
Professor, University of Michigan

Nature of Space Weather in Research Community
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Space
Weather
is
to
Space
Researchers

what
Cancer
is
to
Biological
Scien5sts:
A

way
to
demonstrate
the
value
and
impact

of
one’s
work!

Role of University Community
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø  Fundamental research on physical processes through theoretical
investigations, data analysis, and models
Ø  Knowledge and understanding of instrument designs of instrument
used today and needed in the future
Ø  Applied research by building large-scale models, analysis of
predictions and improved prediction methodologies
Ø  Educate talent equipped with both skillsets

Space Weather Facts
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø  Small CMEs today affect operations of power grid at $10B/yr in USA
and Europe alone
Ø  A Carrington-like event is estimated to cause$2 trillion in damage
Ø  The current estimate of occurrence of such an event is 12% in 10
years

Key question
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø  How do we get from forecasts of 48 minutes to forecasts of 48 hours?
Ø  Modeling challenge, observational challenge, education challenge
?

Modeling Challenge: University of Michigan Space Weather Modeling Framework
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø  Multi-physics, multi-scale system only addressed by SWMF.
SWMF Control & Infrastructure
Eruption
Generator
Solar Corona
Inner
Heliosphere
Global
Magnetosphere
Polar Wind
Inner
Magnetosphere
Ionospheric
Electrodynamics
Thermosphere
& Ionosphere
Solar
Energetic
Particles
Radiation
Belts
3D Outer
Heliosphere
Couplers
Flare/CME
Observations
Upstream
Monitors
F10.7 Flux
Gravity
Waves
Magneto-
grams,
rotation
tomography
Particle in Cell
Particle
Tracker
Convection
Zone

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Ran External Evaluation
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø  The University of Michigan’s SWMF was ranked #1 in
prediction skill among all available models
Ø  Result: SWMF runs in predictive mode now 24/7 on
NOAA’s super-computers

March 2015 St Patrick’s Day Storm
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather

New Architectures: Space Weather Distributed Sensor Network
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø  Status quo: looking at Sun from Earth, L1, some observations in
magnetosphere
Ø  Future architectures: multi-point measurements of significantly
cheaper spacecraft operated as system
Ø  Discussed and recommended in new report by National Academies
!

New Architectures: Severe Storm Example
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø  Eight nano-spacecraft provide comparable measurements at ~10% of
cost, and with repeat times 5-10 times quicker than traditional
technologies
!
!
Cyclone
Global
Naviga1on

Satellite
System
(CYGNSS)

CubeSats as Development Platform
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Current

Emerging

Developing

Demonstrated

Within
2
years

Expected
in
5
years

0.1
degrees

0.02
degrees

0.0003
degrees

(arc-‐minute)

(arc-‐second)

AAtude
Control

Current

Emerging

Developing

Demonstrated

Within
2
years

Expected
in
5
years

N/A

Inert
gas,
3D
printed

Micro
Electrospray

50
m/s

300
m/s

Propulsion

Current

Emerging

Developing

Demonstrated

Within
2
years

Expected
in
5
years

10
krad
Si
total
dose
Selec1ve
hardened

Radia1on
hardened
bus

12
months
LEO
12
months
interplanetary
Mul1-‐year
interplanetary

Radia5on
Tolerance

Blue
Canyon
XACT

aUtude
control
system

Astrium
LEON
microprocessor

JPL
Indium
MEP
thruster

Educational and Training Challenge
Research Frontiers In
Space Weather
Ø  Education, mobilize workforce to
Ø  Develop new, more compact sensors and
systems
Ø  Analyze data with fundamental and
applied problems
Ø  Develop and run models for research
and forecasting
!

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Forecasting Changing Sea Ice Conditions, Months to Years in Advance - State o...

UCAR - Atmospheric & Earth System Science

Julienne Stroeve discusses the need for improved forecasting of changing sea ice conditions months to years in advance. She notes that summer sea ice has been declining rapidly, opening new shipping routes in the Arctic. However, forecasts have large uncertainties and are needed at shorter time scales and with higher spatial resolution. Improving processes like melt ponds and ocean upwelling in models could enhance forecasts, as could initializing forecasts with ice thickness maps. A dedicated polar prediction effort like the proposed Year of Polar Prediction could bring together international experts to advance this important area.

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Research Frontiers in Space Weather, Part II

1. Research Frontiers in Space Weather, II Dr. Thomas H. Zurbuchen Professor, University of Michigan

2. Nature of Space Weather in Research Community Research Frontiers In Space Weather Space Weather is to Space Researchers what Cancer is to Biological Scien5sts: A way to demonstrate the value and impact of one’s work!

3. Role of University Community Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  Fundamental research on physical processes through theoretical investigations, data analysis, and models Ø  Knowledge and understanding of instrument designs of instrument used today and needed in the future Ø  Applied research by building large-scale models, analysis of predictions and improved prediction methodologies Ø  Educate talent equipped with both skillsets

4. Space Weather Facts Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  Small CMEs today affect operations of power grid at $10B/yr in USA and Europe alone Ø  A Carrington-like event is estimated to cause$2 trillion in damage Ø  The current estimate of occurrence of such an event is 12% in 10 years

5. Key question Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  How do we get from forecasts of 48 minutes to forecasts of 48 hours? Ø  Modeling challenge, observational challenge, education challenge ?

6. Modeling Challenge: University of Michigan Space Weather Modeling Framework Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  Multi-physics, multi-scale system only addressed by SWMF. SWMF Control & Infrastructure Eruption Generator Solar Corona Inner Heliosphere Global Magnetosphere Polar Wind Inner Magnetosphere Ionospheric Electrodynamics Thermosphere & Ionosphere Solar Energetic Particles Radiation Belts 3D Outer Heliosphere Couplers Flare/CME Observations Upstream Monitors F10.7 Flux Gravity Waves Magneto- grams, rotation tomography Particle in Cell Particle Tracker Convection Zone

7. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Ran External Evaluation Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  The University of Michigan’s SWMF was ranked #1 in prediction skill among all available models Ø  Result: SWMF runs in predictive mode now 24/7 on NOAA’s super-computers

8. March 2015 St Patrick’s Day Storm Research Frontiers In Space Weather

9. New Architectures: Space Weather Distributed Sensor Network Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  Status quo: looking at Sun from Earth, L1, some observations in magnetosphere Ø  Future architectures: multi-point measurements of significantly cheaper spacecraft operated as system Ø  Discussed and recommended in new report by National Academies !

10. New Architectures: Severe Storm Example Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  Eight nano-spacecraft provide comparable measurements at ~10% of cost, and with repeat times 5-10 times quicker than traditional technologies ! ! Cyclone Global Naviga1on Satellite System (CYGNSS)

11. CubeSats as Development Platform Research Frontiers In Space Weather Current Emerging Developing Demonstrated Within 2 years Expected in 5 years 0.1 degrees 0.02 degrees 0.0003 degrees (arc-‐minute) (arc-‐second) AAtude Control Current Emerging Developing Demonstrated Within 2 years Expected in 5 years N/A Inert gas, 3D printed Micro Electrospray 50 m/s 300 m/s Propulsion Current Emerging Developing Demonstrated Within 2 years Expected in 5 years 10 krad Si total dose Selec1ve hardened Radia1on hardened bus 12 months LEO 12 months interplanetary Mul1-‐year interplanetary Radia5on Tolerance Blue Canyon XACT aUtude control system Astrium LEON microprocessor JPL Indium MEP thruster

12. Educational and Training Challenge Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  Education, mobilize workforce to Ø  Develop new, more compact sensors and systems Ø  Analyze data with fundamental and applied problems Ø  Develop and run models for research and forecasting !

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