Critical raw materials (CRMs) have many different applications in modern products, from wind turbines to smartphones, fertilisers to jet engines. If future demand changes for CRMs, their criticality could as well. A qualitative and quantitative assessment of some of the most CRM-intensive applications was conducted. This presentation explores what changes we can expect in CRM supply at the EU level.

1. This project has received funding from the EU’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 730227
Report on major trends
affecting future demand for
Critical Raw Materials
Antoine Monnet (LGI Consulting)
Berlin - Tuesday, December 11, 2018

2. I. Introduction
II. Methodology
III. Key findings
IV. Wrap-up & discussion

3. How will CRM demand evolve in the future?
Forecast average demand growth to 2020 (% per year) and forecast market balance for each CRM
(colour code). Source: Report on critical raw materials for the EU (2014)
 Future demand may change for many CRMs and it may
affect their criticality. How shall we monitor this?

4. Our objectives
• Bring together datasets from existing studies to shape future
demand trends for the most CRM-intensive industrial applications
• Quantitative & qualitative assessments
• Build a reference scenario for each application
• Identify a list of drivers that could cause an upward or a downward shift of
the trend

5. Identify the major trends in future demands
• Analysed EU28 future demand: time horizon 2035
• Through 12 CRM-intensive applications
• Involving 20 CRMs and covering >70% of total use for 14 of them
• Identified 70+ drivers affecting future demands
Total CRM
demands
Drivers
Drivers
This study

6. I. Introduction
II. Methodology
III. Key findings
IV. Wrap-up & questions

7. Bespoke hybrid methodology
• Methodology based on industrial applications: assessment of the
most CRM intensive applications
• Quantitative approach
• Desktop research to build quantitative reference scenarios
• Qualitative assessment
• Use of multi-level perspective & PESTEL frameworks to collect, analyse,
prioritise experts views

8. Methodology – List of applications & CRMs
Sector Applications CRM involved
Energy Wind turbines Nd, Pr, Dy
PV panels Si, In, Ga
Energy storage Co, nat. Graphite
Electronics Smartphones, laptops, PCs Pd, Ba, Co, Ga, Ta, Nd, Dy
Displays In, Ga
Domestic appliances Pd, Nd, Dy, Ba, Co
Fibre optics Ge
Mobility EV motors & batteries Nd, Pr, Dy, Co, nat. Graphite
Jet engines Ta, V, Nb, Si, Co, W, Hf, B
Autocatalysts PGMs
Passenger car bodies Mg, Nb
Agriculture Fertilisers P
Partners involved:
- LGI
- BGS
- ISI Fraunhofer
- CML Leiden University
- GTK
- JRC

9. Quantitative assessment: demand model
Markets shares
CRM content
Market shares
Capacity Expansion Scenario Wind
Turbines
Onshore
Direct-
Drive
Partial
demand
MS/HS
PMSG
Partial
demand
Offshore
Direct-
Drive
Partial
demand
CRM
demand for
Wind
Direct-drive: no gearbox
Medium/High speed Permanent Magnet
Synchronous generator: hybrid
technology with generator + gearbox

10. Example: Wind turbines - assumptions
Rare-earth material content: 2 hypothesis
• Hypothesis 1: Constant content: no technological improvement1
• Hypothesis 2: Decreasing content: technological progress2
General Assumption: Wind turbines using PM will gain market share
1 D. T. Blagoeva, P. Alves Dias, A. Marmier, C.C. Pavel; Assessment of potential bottlenecks along the materials supply chain for the future
deployment of low-carbon energy and transport technologies in the EU. Wind power, photovoltaic and electric vehicles technologies, time
frame: 2015-2030; EUR 28192 EN; doi:10.2790/08169
2 Pavel, C, C, Lacal-Arántegui, R, Marmier, A, Schüler, D, Tzimas, E, Buchert, M, Jenseit W, Blagoeva D. Role of rare earths in permanent magnets
and review of substitution opportunities in wind turbines, submitted to Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, Manuscript number: RSER-
D-16-01647

11. Nd
Pr
Dy
1400 t
450 t
280 t
Hypothesis 1: Constant content: no technological improvement
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2014 global Nd demand: ~22000 t (90 % in NdFeB)
2014 global Pr demand: ~6000 t.
2014 global Dy demand: ~1200 t.

12. Nd
Pr
Dy
750 t
250 t
60 t
2014 global Nd demand: ~22000 t (90 % in NdFeB)
2014 global Pr demand: ~6000 t.
2014 global Dy demand: ~1200 t.
Hypothesis 2: Decreasing content: technological progress
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

13. Qualitative assessment
• Drivers related to CRM demand for wind power, as identified by
experts:
• Policy: EU & national policies for low-CO2 power production
• Social: not in my backyard perception
• Technology: improvement of material efficiency / substitution for
permanent magnets
• Environmental: protection of onshore/offshore landscapes
• …

14. I. Introduction
II. Methodology
III. Key findings
→ focus on CRMs involved in several sectors
IV. Wrap-up & discussion

15. CRMs for electronics and photovoltaics

16. Indium & gallium: no big change to expect
• The EU demand is not expected to surge based on the needs for
electronics and PV
• Electronics: the demand for end-products enters a stationary replacement
cycle
• PV: material efficiency is expected to balance the increasing demand for
solar panels
• Drivers to monitor
• Change in regulation: countries banning import of e-waste from EU,
incentives to reuse/repain, measures against planned obsolescence
• Growth of demand for new connected devices

17. Rare-earth elements at the heart of energy transition

18. Rare-earth elements at the heart of energy transition
• The demand for Nd, Pr, Dy is expected to follow strong upward trends:
from x 2.5 (Nd) to x 7 (Pr)
• Electric vehicle motors are responsible for most of the growth to come
• Demand related to electronics & wind power should remain rather stable
• Only offshore wind turbines use RRE: onshore is the first substitute
• Drivers to monitor
• EU & national policies to deploy EV infrastructures & to cut GHG emission in the
transport sector
• Technological improvements in magnets, material efficiency & substitution

19. Energy storage shaping the future of cobalt & graphite

20. Energy storage shaping the future of cobalt & graphite
• The adoption of domestic storage is secondary and more uncertain
• There is currently no realistic alternative that could massively
replace Li-ion batteries for EV
• The result is a strong, rather certain upward trend in cobalt & natural
graphite demand
• Drivers to monitor
• EU & national policies to deploy EV infrastructures & to cut GHG emission
in the transport sector
• Technological improvements in batteries, material efficiency &
substitution

21. Some CRMs of the mobility sector follow
complicated trends

22. • Cross-technology CRM needs will increase: Nb & Mg for stronger &
lighter alloys
• PGMs
• higher environmental constraints tend to increase PGM content in autocatalysts
• the adoption of EVs tends to limit the demand for new autocatalysts
• the impact of hydrogen mobility by 2035 should remain limited
• Drivers to monitor
• EU & national policies on air pollution, GHG emission reduction in the mobility
sector, development & adoption of EVs, car safety requirements
• Growth of mobility as a service
Some CRMs of the mobility sector follow
complicated trends

23. I. Introduction
II. Methodology
III. Key findings
IV. Wrap-up & discussions

24. Main take aways
• The main challenge related to energy transition is energy storage,
especially for mobility applications
• Material efficiency improvement could unlock the development of
renewables with limited consequences on CRM supply

25. Discussions
• Thank you for your attention. Any questions?
• Like many prospective studies, our approach is questionable if
disruptive technologies are likely to emerge: do you see any
coming?
• The full report of the study is available online:
http://scrreen.eu/results/

26. Thank you!
Get in touch for more information!
Antoine Monnet, LGI
Meet me on LinkedIn
All of the reports produced in the project will be
available for download on the SCRREEN website.
Project coordinator: Stephane Bourg, CEA
Contact us: contact@scrreen.eu
Follow us on Twitter!
@SCRREEN_EU
Visit our website: www.scrreen.eu