Heating without the hot air: Principles for smart heat electrification

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This document discusses principles for smart heat electrification in Europe. It notes that heating accounts for around 50% of energy use in the EU, with 75% currently generated from fossil fuels. The residential sector is most important for space heating. The document outlines four principles for heat electrification: 1) prioritize energy efficiency to reduce costs and enable thermal storage, 2) recognize the value of flexible heat loads for integrating renewable energy, 3) understand how load changes affect emissions, and 4) design electricity tariffs to reward flexibility. A range of policies are needed to accelerate the replacement of fossil fuel heating with low-carbon alternatives like heat pumps.

Government & Nonprofit

Dr Jan Rosenow & Dr Richard Lowes
The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
Rue de la Science 23
B-1040 Brussels
Belgium
+44 7722 343137
jrosenow@raponline.org
raponline.org
April 2020
Heating without the hot air:
Principles for smart heat
electrification

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
1 Why heating?

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 5
Almost half of energy use in EU
This project has received funding from the
European Union's Horizon 2020 research
and innovation programme under grant
agreement No. 695989.
www.heatroadmap.
@HeatRoadmap
Non-H/C
50%
Process
heating
16%
Space heating
27%
Hot water
4%
Other heating
1%
Process
cooling
1%
Space
cooling
1%
Heating and
cooling
50%
(EU28)
igh relevance C about 50 of ED
Source: Heat Roadmap Europe (2017)

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 6
75% of heat generated by fossil fuel
This project has received funding from the
H&C FED by energy carrier in 2015 (E
2015 shares
• ossil
• RES 13
• El D 2142%
12%
12%
12%
9%
8%
4%
1%
0%
0%
Gas
Oil
Biomass
Electricity
District heating
Coal
Others (fossil)
Solar thermal
Heat pumps
Others (RES)
Source: Heat Roadmap Europe (2017)

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 7
Residential sector most important
2015)
End‐uses by sec
• Industry
for process h
• Residential
5 for sp
heating
• Tertiary hig
share of coo
compared to
other sector
( 10 )
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Industry Residential Tertiary
Finalenergy[TWh]
Space heating
Space cooling
Process heating
Process cooling
Hot water
Other heating
Source: Heat Roadmap Europe (2017)

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 8
Improvements but not fast enough
Source: Bertelsen and Mathiesen (2020)

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
2 Decarbonisation options and
context

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 10
Limited options for decarbonisation

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 11
Electricity is becoming
increasingly green
gCO2/kWh
Source: EEA (2020)

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 12
Heat pumps now much cleaner
than gas – example UK
Source: Staffel 2019

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
3 Principles for heat electrification

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 14
Principle 1: Put Efficiency First
Reduces
system cost
Provides thermal
storage

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 15
Thermal storage capabilities of
buildings
Source: tado (2020)

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 16
Principle 2: Recognize the value
of flexible heat load
7 AM 16 AM 12 PM
Electricity
demand (kW)
Reduce AM
peak load
Reduce PM
peak load
use of wind power
use of
solar power

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 17
Value of flexible heat load: example
with high wind penetration
Source: Ruhnau et al. (2020)

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 18
Principle 3: Understand the
emissions effects of changes in load

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 19
Principle 4: Design tariffs to
reward flexibility

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
4 Heat policy

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
• Building codes, appliance standards and labelling
• Energy Efficiency Obligations and financial support
schemes
• Carbon intensity standards
• Building codes, appliance standards and labelling
• Energy Efficiency Obligations and financial support
schemes
• Electricity pricing
21
Heat policy
Reducing the
heat demand
Reduce carbon
intensity of
energy carrier
Deployment of
low carbon
heat
technologies
Operate
flexibly

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
5 Conclusion

Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
• Decarbonising heat is critical for meeting climate
and clean air goals
• Electrification is a central pillar
• Energy efficiency is key to minimize costs and
build in thermal storage
• Flexible operation of heat pumps is possible and
can be incentivized through tariffs
• Whole range of policy instruments needed to
accelerate replacement rates
23
Conclusions

Dr Jan Rosenow
Director of European Programmes
The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
+44 7722 343137
jrosenow@raponline.org
raponline.org I janrosenow.com
Rue de la Science 23
B-1040 Brussels
Belgium
About RAP
The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® is an
independent, non-partisan, non-governmental
organization dedicated to accelerating the transition
to a clean, reliable, and efficient energy future.
Learn more about our work at raponline.org

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