Tim Hotz Roland Berger

1. The race for end-of-life batteries and effects of EU battery regulation
Frankfurt, 5th of September
EV battery recycling

2. 2
Your presenter today
Tim Hotz
Senior Project Manager
Global Advanced Technology Center
– Automotive & Industrials
Tim.Hotz@rolandberger.com
Disclaimer
The presentation at hand was created by Roland Berger.
Roland Berger, founded in 1967, is the only leading global consultancy of
German heritage and European origin. With 2,400 employees working in
36 countries, we have successful operations in all major international
markets. Our 50 offices are located in the key global business hubs.
Roland Berger advises major international industry and service companies
as well as public institutions. Our services cover the entire range of
management consulting from strategic advice to successful
implementation.
The presentation at hand was particularly created for the benefit of the
recipient and is based on certain assumptions and information available at
the publishing date. Roland Berger does not give an express or implied
warranty regarding the correctness and completeness of the information
contained in this study. There is no guarantee that the included
projections or estimates will be realized. No indication or statement in this
study shall be understood as an assured prediction. Information provided
by collaborating companies and research institutes has not been verified
by Roland Berger. The reader should not act on any information provided
in this study without receiving specific professional advice.
In publishing this presentation, Roland Berger reserves the right to make
any necessary amendment or substitution and is not obliged to give the
recipient access to the additional information.
Any other use or disclosure of this study to a third party is strictly
prohibited, unless expressly permitted via written consent from Roland
Berger. The image rights remain with the respective originator at any
time.
Roland Berger shall not be liable for any damages resulting from the use
of information contained in the presentation.
© Roland Berger GmbH. All rights reserved.
www.automotive-disruption-radar.com
Read more

3. 3
In-depth tech expertise to support the transformation of the industry –
Roland Berger's global "Advanced Technology Center"
Our focus and set-up
Source: Roland Berger
supports automotive, industrial, and technology clients
globally to master the challenges and opportunities that
new technologies bring to their businesses and markets
Cross-industry
fields of expertise Other electronic
components
Business models
Strategy
Organization
Transformation
The Advanced Technology Center
HW
architectures,
boxes & boards
Semi-
conductors
Quantum tech.,
photonics &
optics
Software
architectures
Energy storage
technologies
Advanced
Costing

4. 4
Roland Berger works with leading companies across the globe and along the whole
LiB value chain – on strategy, partnering, supply chain and costs
Unmatched expertise from ca. 100 projects in the last years in all countries relevant for Lithium-Ion-Batteries
Source: Roland Berger
Mining &
refining
Materials
(CAM/AAM/Electrol./Sep.)
Cells, packs &
end markets
2nd life
& recycling
Syrah Resources

5. 5
Tremendous growth in the battery industry (LiB demand forecast) creates the
requirement for recycling due to multiple main drivers
Global market demand for lithium-ion battery by application, 2020-2030 [GWh]
CAGR
2020-2030
Abbreviations: LSEV – Low Speed Electric Vehicle; 2W – Electric Two Wheelers; Light vehicle – Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles with up to 6 tons; MHEV, FHEV, PHEV – Mild Hybrid, Full Hybrid and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle; BEV –
Battery Electric Vehicle
Source: Roland Berger Integrated LiB Demand and Supply Model
30%
7%
26%
34%
21%
20%
27%
426
236
315
159
22
93
92
130
125
2022
2020
38
83
3,971
2024 2026
108
174
126
98
118
111
144
2028
3,093 132
157
2030
254
657
1,385
2,217
1,007
1,654
2,385
3,076
c.30%
Stationary energy storage systems Other Commercial vehicles LSEV & 2W
Consumer electronics Light vehicle MHEV, FHEV & PHEV Light vehicle BEV
LiB recycling demand drivers
Ecological responsibility
Raw material supply securitization
Profit pool
Regulatory requirements
1
2
3
4
Main LiB recycling demand drivers:
Copyright
Roland
Berger

6. 6
Recycling will only play a minor role in raw material supply and demand in the
medium term – It will become crucial in the long-term
Global main LiB components supply vs. demand forecast 2020-2030 [mt metal equivalent]
2 Raw material supply securitization
Once demand
stabilizes for 10-
15 years,
recycling could
provide >80% of
raw material
demand
Lithium Nickel
Cobalt Manganese
I II
III IV
'22 '24 '26 '28 '30
2020 '22 '24 '26 '28 '30
2020
'22 '24 '26 '28 '30
2020 '22 '24 '26 '28 '30
2020
Additional early stage supply
Gap Demand LiB recycling supply Existing projects and expansions
0.1
0.4
0.1 0.1 0.3
0.1
0.1 0.0
-1.1
-0.8
-0.2 -0.5
0.04
0.04
0.03 0.00
0.05 0.04
0.1 1.7
0.2 0.6
2.8
1.0
Source: Roland Berger Integrated LiB Demand and Supply Model
8%
x% % recycling supply compared to total supply in 2030
9%
4%
<1%
Copyright
Roland
Berger

7. 7
Copyright
Roland
Berger
Recycling will become a significant profit pool – Batteries produced in the last 5 yr
contain RM in excess of EUR 20 bn and could exceed EUR 600 bn until 2030
1 2 2 4
13
2020 2023 2024 2029
2025 2027
2026
2022
>100
2021 2028
2019
2018
2017 2030
Note: Only battery production since 2017 considered, 2022 average raw material spot market prices, limited to Li, Ni, Co, MN
Value of contained active materials in LiBs produced, 2020-2030 [EUR bn]
Value for
recycled material
could be even
higher driven by
regulation –
Recycled material
may command a
price premium
over primary
material
3 Profit pool
Total potential value of RM contained in LiB >EUR 600 bn
Source: Roland Berger Integrated LiB Demand and Supply Model

8. 8
Copyright
Roland
Berger
From January 2030 and January 2035 EV batteries shall contain the
following minimum recycled material shares in each model and batch:
The EU battery regulation with Extended Producer Responsibility and mandatory
recycling content in new batteries, creates a push and a pull for battery recycling
Mandatory recycling content
Extended Producer Responsibility
Article 47 proposes the Extended Producer Responsibility for producers of
batteries (could be OEMs or cell manufacturers) which include obligation to
organize and finance activities for:
• Collection of waste batteries
• Subsequent transportation
• Treatment and recycling of waste batteries
Article 49 proposes rules for collection of waste EV batteries which include
obligation to:
• Take back waste batteries free of charge and without any obligation from
end user to buy new batteries
• Take back all batteries of the respective type that they have made
available on the market
• Article 55 sets collection rates of waste portable batteries but currently
excluding waste EV batteries (no targets set yet).
Article 8 proposes the mandatory recycled content in industrial batteries,
electric vehicle batteries and automotive batteries
From January 2027 EV batteries that contain cobalt, lithium or nickel in
active materials shall be accompanied by technical documentation on
recycled material content
Proposed new EU battery directive1)
4 Regulatory requirements
See next page
4% 4%
12%
10%
12%
20%
Lithium Nickel Cobalt
2030
2035
1) Final regulation not defined yet – Dates and values subject to change
Source: EU, Roland Berger

9. 9
Copyright
Roland
Berger
9
In the most recycling-friendly scenario, recycling demand is
covered for Li and Ni – Cobalt demand slightly not covered
EU recycling content requirements vs. supply, 2030 ['000 mt]
44
26
18
Demand
Supply Difference
38
20
18
Difference
Supply Demand
6
6
Supply
1
Difference Demand
4 LiB recycling demand drivers – Regulatory requirements
• Avg. Battery EoL: 12 years,
majority between 10-15
years
• Battery manufacturing
scrap rate: 8-5%
• Battery collection rate: 95%
• Recycling efficiency: 95%
• Limited battery repair &
refurbishing
• Limited second life
No recycling content requirements
Key assumptions:
Lithium Nickel
Cobalt Manganese
I II
III IV
Recycling-favorable scenario
Source: Roland Berger Integrated LiB Demand and Supply Model
Note: Based on EU production, excl. battery and/or recycled material imports/exports

10. 10
Copyright
Roland
Berger
10
In a less favorable scenario, competition for supply will
increase and Co significantly undersupplied
32
26
6
Difference
Supply Demand
27
20
7
Supply Difference Demand
3
7
4
Difference
Supply Demand
4 LiB recycling demand drivers – Regulatory requirements
• Avg. battery EoL: 15 years,
majority between 13-18
years
• Battery manufacturing
scrap rate: 8-5%
• Battery collection rate: 95%
• Recycling efficiency: 95-
98%
• No recycling of
commercially unviable
chemistries, e.g., LFP
• Limited battery repair &
refurbishing
• Limited second life
Key assumptions:
No recycling content requirements
Lithium Nickel
Cobalt Manganese
I II
III IV
Recycling-unfavorable scenario
EU recycling content requirements vs. supply, 2030 ['000 mt]
Source: Roland Berger Integrated LiB Demand and Supply Model
Note: Based on EU production, excl. battery and/or recycled material imports/exports

11. 11
Copyright
Roland
Berger
11
If the EU were to exclude manufacturing scrap from
regulation, significant supply challenge would arise
17
26
8
Demand
Difference
Supply
17
20
3
Demand
Supply Difference
4
7
3
Difference
Supply Demand
4 LiB recycling demand drivers – Regulatory requirements
• Avg. Battery EoL: 12 years,
majority between 10-15
years
• Battery manufacturing
scrap excluded from
regulation
• Battery collection rate: 95%
• Recycling efficiency: 95%
• Limited battery repair &
refurbishing
• Limited second life
Key assumptions:
No recycling content requirements
Lithium Nickel
Cobalt Manganese
I II
III IV
No mfg. scrap scenario
EU recycling content requirements vs. supply, 2030 ['000 mt]
Source: Roland Berger Integrated LiB Demand and Supply Model
Note: Based on EU production, excl. battery and/or recycled material imports/exports

12. 12
Copyright
Roland
Berger
A large number of players could be well positioned to control EoL batteries at
different stages in the circular battery lifecycle
HVB
End-of-Life
Cases
Repair within warranty
Repair outside the warranty
Vehicle and battery damage
Both battery and vehicle
functioning; resale value exceeds
recycling value
Refurbishment
Vehicle use phase
Decision-makers
OEM/OEM dealer
Independent workshop
/ OEM dealer
Insurance, scrap yard
Export trader
Refurbishment player
Second life
applications
2nd life users
Collection,
aggregation, distr.
LiB recycling
LiB
manufacturing
value
chain
Independent
aggregators
Vertically integrated LiB recyclers
Metal
extractors
LiB recyclers (extraction &
refinement)
Metallurgical
refinement
LiB recycling industry players
OEM/OEM dealer
Overview of LiB lifecycle and main industry players
Additionally Over-the-air Diagnostics &
Control option of the customer
Source: Roland Berger

13. 13
Copyright
Roland
Berger
If you want to enter the battery recycling market, first define your own role, then
build an ecosystem and act fast!
Build a strong
ecosystem of
partners
• Identify need for partners to build the strongest ecosystem
• Choose most suitable partnership model and select partners
Act fast
• Do not postpone market entry decision – In a rapidly evolving, but supply
constrained market, fast movers can establish strategic moat
Define own role
• Assess opportunities based on technological capabilities, access to battery
supply or raw material demand, financial strengths, etc.
• Understand strategic implications for other activities along the value chain
Source: Roland Berger

14. 14
Copyright
Roland
Berger
14
Don't hesitate to get in touch!
Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart
Senior Partner
wolfgang.bernhart@rolandberger.com
+49 160 744 7421
LinkedIn
Maximillian Wegner
Senior Project Manager
maximilian.wegner@rolandberger.com
+34 659 691 058
LinkedIn
www.automotive-disruption-radar.com
Tim Hotz
Senior Project Manager
tim.hotz@rolandberger.com
+49 160 744 8319
LinkedIn
Read more