APM Webinar hosted by the North West Branch on 18 October 2023.
Speaker: Dr Michala Techau
Addressing the why, when, and how to use Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) as a method to predict uncertainty in major project planning and delivery. The key reason behind cost and schedule overrun is underestimation of risks, and the root causes of underestimation are optimism and political bias. This webinar was held on Wednesday 18 October 2023.
https://youtu.be/Shl5r1wTzxc
https://www.apm.org.uk/news/reference-class-forecasting-useful-method-or-random-number-generator-webinar/
Oxford Global Projects has vast experience of working on the risk assessment of complex and uncertain major capital projects. Our research shows that these projects are more likely to experience overruns in time and cost than underruns, and that the potential magnitude of overruns is likely to be greater than the magnitude of underruns.
Thus, for large capital projects, the norm is over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again, The founder of OGP, Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, has named this the “iron law of megaprojects” - and we argue that it is crucial to build a strong evidence base to de-bias cost, schedule, and benefit estimates to derive clear, actionable recommendations for de-risking capital project delivery.
RCF is a method for systematically taking an outside-view on planned actions. The method is used to make explicit, empirically based adjustments to estimates that prevent estimation biases such as optimism bias. To be accurate, these adjustments should be based on data from past and similar projects calibrated for the unique characteristics of the project at hand.
The basic idea of RCF is that we answer the questions:
What was the actual cost and schedule performance of past similar projects?
How risky were they in terms of how much their cost and schedule changed in comparison to their original estimates?
How do the cost and schedule performance of past relevant projects compare to your project, and what is your project’s risk of overrun?
What contingency is required to provide the level of certainty you require that your project will not overrun?
The talk highlighted typical misconceptions about RCF, and put them to bed. Challenges, causes, and cures for major project performance will be illustrated with case studies from the transport, energy, and the built environment sectors. The talk concluded with a Q&A session and an open discussion on how RCF is potentially more important than ever, in relation to addressing our impact on the environment.
A review of advanced linear repetitive scheduling methods and techniquesAsadullah Malik
ABSTRACT
Over the past two decades, significant attention has been focused on the development of advanced scheduling methods for repetitive/linear construction projects. Several approaches have been proposed by various research groups in order to solve specific problems in the scheduling of repetitive/linear construction projects such as high-rise buildings, bridges, pipelines, and highways. Some of these approaches represent milestones in the authors’ researches, and others provide a thorough solution implemented in computer software. This paper is a review of several articles related to this topic, which have been published in specialized journals since 1998. The solution methods for repetitive/linear scheduling problems are various, extending from simple graphical techniques to complex computational and optimization methods, such as genetic algorithms. The methods underlying the different solutions can be divided into three groups: exact, heuristic and metaheuristic. This paper presents an introduction into the different repetitive/linear scheduling problems, outlines the optimization methods proposed, classifies the different approach methods utilized and, finally, areas for future research are suggested.
Keywords: linear scheduling, construction management, repetitive units, optimization, genetic algorithms.
This article presents the Strategy Execution Model– a comprehensive management model that allows managers to master one of the greatest management challenges – successfully implementing strategies. The powerful framework incorporates 18 success factors that are related to the strategy, its execution, mobilizing the people, aligning the organization and building systems to monitor and control the execution. Collectively, these tools help organizations plan and execute their strategies but also monitor, learn and adapt their strategy and its execution to achieve sustainable organizational success.
Nowadays, all organization works on the principle of Agile methodology, there might be many people like me who don't even know the meaning of Agile and Scrum Master.
I have made the docs from the source available on the internet with all due respect have copied the URL LINK.
The motive behind posting this is you can get an Agile understanding in one document.
Thanks
A review of advanced linear repetitive scheduling methods and techniquesAsadullah Malik
ABSTRACT
Over the past two decades, significant attention has been focused on the development of advanced scheduling methods for repetitive/linear construction projects. Several approaches have been proposed by various research groups in order to solve specific problems in the scheduling of repetitive/linear construction projects such as high-rise buildings, bridges, pipelines, and highways. Some of these approaches represent milestones in the authors’ researches, and others provide a thorough solution implemented in computer software. This paper is a review of several articles related to this topic, which have been published in specialized journals since 1998. The solution methods for repetitive/linear scheduling problems are various, extending from simple graphical techniques to complex computational and optimization methods, such as genetic algorithms. The methods underlying the different solutions can be divided into three groups: exact, heuristic and metaheuristic. This paper presents an introduction into the different repetitive/linear scheduling problems, outlines the optimization methods proposed, classifies the different approach methods utilized and, finally, areas for future research are suggested.
Keywords: linear scheduling, construction management, repetitive units, optimization, genetic algorithms.
This article presents the Strategy Execution Model– a comprehensive management model that allows managers to master one of the greatest management challenges – successfully implementing strategies. The powerful framework incorporates 18 success factors that are related to the strategy, its execution, mobilizing the people, aligning the organization and building systems to monitor and control the execution. Collectively, these tools help organizations plan and execute their strategies but also monitor, learn and adapt their strategy and its execution to achieve sustainable organizational success.
Nowadays, all organization works on the principle of Agile methodology, there might be many people like me who don't even know the meaning of Agile and Scrum Master.
I have made the docs from the source available on the internet with all due respect have copied the URL LINK.
The motive behind posting this is you can get an Agile understanding in one document.
Thanks
PVD Project Control Best Practices for Large ProjectsJeremie Averous
Discover key best practices of Project Control that are specific to Large, Complex Projects. This presentation summarizes key learning points and practices from several years on consulting.
Project Value Delivery is a leading global consultancy focusing on Large Complex Projects: "We Empower Organizations to be Reliably Successful in Large, Complex Projects"
Project management and its strategic importanceabhianvbansal
Project management is important because it ensures what is being delivered, is right, and will deliver real value against the business opportunity. Every client has strategic goals and the projects that we do for them advance those goals. ... But a project manager will ensure that the project is part of that realignment. This ppt is for project management and if you find this ppt useful please do like share comment. Thankyou
Applying risk factors in the strategic selection of portfolio projects
Presented by John MacGregor
Monday 10th October 2016
APM North West branch and Risk SIG conference
Alderley Park, Macclesfield
3 Critical Success Factors in the Delivery of Major Programmes - Jay ArmstrongOliviaParsons4
Jay Armstrong's presentation looks at the current situation of project success, how project complexity feeds into this and the three critical success factors in the delivery of major programmes.
3 Critical Success Factors in the Delivery of Major Programmes - Jay ArmstrongLogiKal Projects
Jay Armstrong's presentation takes a look at the 3 critical success factors in the delivery of major programmes. Using case studies from LogiKal's experience, Jay explores why projects are failing and how we can address this.
We will cover:
• Definition of Risk
• Why Risk Management?
• Project Stakeholders
• Psychology of Risk
• Risks on Estimation
• Project Budget
About the presenter:
This webinar will be presented by Gilberto Costa (PMP, AGILE, PRINCE2, RMP), Senior Project Manager at GBC London.
Gilberto is a value-driven project manager who has extensive business experiences in the IT industry, telecom, utilities and government affairs.
Gilberto holds multiple professional certifications, including the PMP and RMP certifications from the Project Management Institute. He is also a PECB Certified Trainer for ISO 31000 Risk Management.
52 a risk-management_approach_to_a_successful_infrastructure_projectEng. Mohamed Muhumed
Currently they seem to be no high level, hi-tech poultry farms in this country like the ones we used to see in USA, Europe and Asia. Any investor who have enough nerve and needed capital to venture into it will have reasons to smile within a short period of investment. Up till now, Nigeria still import chicken from other countries because the ones the local farmers produces are not enough to meet the demand of the over 150 Million citizens.
Risk analysis for project decision-making
Presented by Keith Gray
Monday 10th October 2016
APM North West branch and Risk SIG conference
Alderley Park, Macclesfield
An Integrated Project Evaluation Tool for PFI Seaport ProjectFredy Kurniawan
The evaluation of the financial viability for seaport projects is a critical activity for bidders and governments under traditional procurement or through private finance initiative (PFI). The aim of this research is to assist government agencies in
evaluating bids and making decision efficiently for seaport development projects through the use of an integrated project evaluation tool. The proposed tool is expected to integrate the results of the financial model and the risk sharing strategy. The integrated project evaluation tool can be mutually used by the government agency and
the sponsor(s). This paper discusses the proposed tool to be tested in future study. The research strategy uses literature review, questionnaire surveys, interviews, and document analyses in order to develop the proposed tool. The tool will be tested
through case studies and experts’ opinion to validate its applicability and
effectiveness. The main conclusion of this paper is that the knowledge gap between
the sponsor(s) and the government agency can be improved if the government agency is provided with efficient tools that consider both the financial and the risk factors affecting a new project
AN INTEGRATED PROJECT EVALUATION TOOL FOR PFI SEAPORT PROJECTSFredy Kurniawan
The evaluation of the financial viability for seaport projects is a critical activity for bidders and governments under traditional procurement or through private finance initiative (PFI). The aim of this research is to assist government agencies in
evaluating bids and making decision efficiently for seaport development projects through the use of an integrated project evaluation tool. The proposed tool is expected to integrate the results of the financial model and the risk sharing strategy. The
integrated project evaluation tool can be mutually used by the government agency and the sponsor(s). This paper discusses the proposed tool to be tested in future study. The research strategy uses literature review, questionnaire surveys, interviews, and document analyses in order to develop the proposed tool. The tool will be tested through case studies and experts’ opinion to validate its applicability and effectiveness. The main conclusion of this paper is that the knowledge gap between the sponsor(s) and the government agency can be improved if the government agency is provided with efficient tools that consider both the financial and the risk factors
affecting a new project.
PVD Project Control Best Practices for Large ProjectsJeremie Averous
Discover key best practices of Project Control that are specific to Large, Complex Projects. This presentation summarizes key learning points and practices from several years on consulting.
Project Value Delivery is a leading global consultancy focusing on Large Complex Projects: "We Empower Organizations to be Reliably Successful in Large, Complex Projects"
Project management and its strategic importanceabhianvbansal
Project management is important because it ensures what is being delivered, is right, and will deliver real value against the business opportunity. Every client has strategic goals and the projects that we do for them advance those goals. ... But a project manager will ensure that the project is part of that realignment. This ppt is for project management and if you find this ppt useful please do like share comment. Thankyou
Applying risk factors in the strategic selection of portfolio projects
Presented by John MacGregor
Monday 10th October 2016
APM North West branch and Risk SIG conference
Alderley Park, Macclesfield
3 Critical Success Factors in the Delivery of Major Programmes - Jay ArmstrongOliviaParsons4
Jay Armstrong's presentation looks at the current situation of project success, how project complexity feeds into this and the three critical success factors in the delivery of major programmes.
3 Critical Success Factors in the Delivery of Major Programmes - Jay ArmstrongLogiKal Projects
Jay Armstrong's presentation takes a look at the 3 critical success factors in the delivery of major programmes. Using case studies from LogiKal's experience, Jay explores why projects are failing and how we can address this.
We will cover:
• Definition of Risk
• Why Risk Management?
• Project Stakeholders
• Psychology of Risk
• Risks on Estimation
• Project Budget
About the presenter:
This webinar will be presented by Gilberto Costa (PMP, AGILE, PRINCE2, RMP), Senior Project Manager at GBC London.
Gilberto is a value-driven project manager who has extensive business experiences in the IT industry, telecom, utilities and government affairs.
Gilberto holds multiple professional certifications, including the PMP and RMP certifications from the Project Management Institute. He is also a PECB Certified Trainer for ISO 31000 Risk Management.
52 a risk-management_approach_to_a_successful_infrastructure_projectEng. Mohamed Muhumed
Currently they seem to be no high level, hi-tech poultry farms in this country like the ones we used to see in USA, Europe and Asia. Any investor who have enough nerve and needed capital to venture into it will have reasons to smile within a short period of investment. Up till now, Nigeria still import chicken from other countries because the ones the local farmers produces are not enough to meet the demand of the over 150 Million citizens.
Risk analysis for project decision-making
Presented by Keith Gray
Monday 10th October 2016
APM North West branch and Risk SIG conference
Alderley Park, Macclesfield
An Integrated Project Evaluation Tool for PFI Seaport ProjectFredy Kurniawan
The evaluation of the financial viability for seaport projects is a critical activity for bidders and governments under traditional procurement or through private finance initiative (PFI). The aim of this research is to assist government agencies in
evaluating bids and making decision efficiently for seaport development projects through the use of an integrated project evaluation tool. The proposed tool is expected to integrate the results of the financial model and the risk sharing strategy. The integrated project evaluation tool can be mutually used by the government agency and
the sponsor(s). This paper discusses the proposed tool to be tested in future study. The research strategy uses literature review, questionnaire surveys, interviews, and document analyses in order to develop the proposed tool. The tool will be tested
through case studies and experts’ opinion to validate its applicability and
effectiveness. The main conclusion of this paper is that the knowledge gap between
the sponsor(s) and the government agency can be improved if the government agency is provided with efficient tools that consider both the financial and the risk factors affecting a new project
AN INTEGRATED PROJECT EVALUATION TOOL FOR PFI SEAPORT PROJECTSFredy Kurniawan
The evaluation of the financial viability for seaport projects is a critical activity for bidders and governments under traditional procurement or through private finance initiative (PFI). The aim of this research is to assist government agencies in
evaluating bids and making decision efficiently for seaport development projects through the use of an integrated project evaluation tool. The proposed tool is expected to integrate the results of the financial model and the risk sharing strategy. The
integrated project evaluation tool can be mutually used by the government agency and the sponsor(s). This paper discusses the proposed tool to be tested in future study. The research strategy uses literature review, questionnaire surveys, interviews, and document analyses in order to develop the proposed tool. The tool will be tested through case studies and experts’ opinion to validate its applicability and effectiveness. The main conclusion of this paper is that the knowledge gap between the sponsor(s) and the government agency can be improved if the government agency is provided with efficient tools that consider both the financial and the risk factors
affecting a new project.
A Best of Breed Approach to Accelerate Projects with High Reliability binozu
We discuss a harmonious mix of proven Best of Breed techniques from multiple leading methods—including Critical Chain, Agile, and Lean—integrated in an innovative way to boost performance by 2X or better with High Reliability. This approach provides leaders in project-centric organizations with a much higher-powered framework for unifying project teams and stakeholders at all levels, for enhancing the flow of productive work, and for aggregating risk for much higher portfolio reliability and for increasing the Return on Investment. Presented at PMI Pasadena Morning Meeting on Thursday, October 18, 2018
Judgement: Managing the Cognitive Factor to Improve the accuracy of Technolog...IFIS_org
Presentation made at Military Technology University (Warsaw) for PYTHIA project. The PYTHIA project aims to devise an innovative methodology for strategic technology foresight, able to deliver frequent “predictions” on technology-related matters. Project is granted by European Defence Agency.
P
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72 September 2009 ■ Project Management Journal ■ DOI: 10.1002/pmj
INTRODUCTION ■
A
ccording to the United Kingdom’s Royal Academy of Engineering, bil-
lions of pounds are wasted every year on new information technology
(IT) systems. Troubled public-sector IT projects such as the National
Health Service (NHS) National Programme for IT, the Child Support
Agency systems, and HM Revenue and Customs’ Tax Credits IT system have
attracted considerable negative press. They have overrun, cost millions of
pounds more than was budgeted, and, in some cases, have been cancelled
before their costs spiral even further out of control. Terms such as “nightmare”
and “disaster” tend to be attached to such projects. IT projects (the provision
of a service to implement systems and solutions, including a variety of hard-
ware and software products; (Howard, 2001) seem to be more problematic
than other types of projects, with a particularly high rate of failure (McGrew &
Bilotta, 2000; The Standish Group International, 2007; Whittaker, 1999).
Despite well-established best practice project management processes, project
managers appear to be ineffective in the light of such failure.
Organizations such as the Project Management Institute (PMI) and the
United Kingdom’s Association for Project Management (APM) promote best-
practice project management standards. As part of these standards, project risk
management is defined as the systematic process of identifying, analyzing, and
responding to risks. Risk is any project-related event, or managerial behavior,
that is not definitely known in advance but has the potential of adverse conse-
quences on a project objective (PMI, 2004). Project risk management claims to
enable project managers to effectively manage risk and minimize the adverse
influence of risk on the project outcome. However, we have found that IT proj-
ect managers often do not apply a process to manage risks. The reasons for this
vary. Nevertheless, the evidence behind this phenomenon is very scarce, often
descriptive, and inchoate. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether
best practice standards are applied, and if they are not, what reasons led the IT
project manager to decide not to actively approach and manage project risks.
The results show that IT project managers primarily face the problem of
cost justification. Facing costs and time constraints and the uncertainty of
the success of project risk management, they often decided not to actively
manage risks. However, with the benefit of hindsight, we see that such a
decision often turns out to be fatal. Not surprisingly, in projects where proj-
ect risk management is not used, a greater degree of risks materialize than in
those projects where the IT project manager does actively manage risks.
Project Risk Management
Risks may potentially endanger the ability of the project manager to meet
the predefined project objectives, such as scope, time, and cost; tasks may
The .
ANALYSIS OF RISK CATEGORIES AND FACTORS FOR PPP PROJECTS USING ANALYTIC HIERA...A Makwana
Success of Public Private Partnership projects is greatly influenced by proper management of the risks associated with the project. All projects which are undertaken using conventional procurement method or using a PPP approach have known risks and unknown risks. Risk identification plays an important role in development of PPP framework. The participation and investment of Private sector has been the main stay of the Government of India policy toward infrastructural growth. In this study main risk categories and factors of Public Private Partnership projects have been recognized. A total of 7 risk categories and 31 risk sub-factors for each category were identified for PPP projects safety listed under subheads. The questionnaire was prepared on the basis of literature review and was filled by 100 Stakeholders namely Consultant/Client, Project Manager/ Contractor, Engineer. Generally Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is widely used as multi criteria decision making. Normally it is very hard to meet the consistence need of a comparison matrix in analytic hierarchy process. In this study AHP is used to categories the risks of PPP projects in different levels and the impact of those risks on the PPP projects are identified.
APM event hosted by the North West Branch on 5 December 2023.
Speaker: Katie Demain, Global Partner and Change Expert, iOpener Institute
There is compelling evidence that it pays to invest in your employees’ happiness. Research findings are clear that happier employees are more productive, which improves your bottom line. Your happiest employees are 65% more energised at work, spend twice as much time on-task, and intend to stay in their job 4 times longer, according to iOpener Institute. This event was held on 5 December 2023.
But what does being happy at work actually mean? Why is happiness considered the antidote to poor performance? Isn’t happiness just a fuzzy concept? Should workforce happiness be on your agenda in the current tough economic climate? What does making happy employees mean in real terms for business leaders and managers?
This event will bring participants up to speed with all aspects behind workforce happiness – its theory, its value and its challenges – for managers, teams and individuals. And to present practical solutions that you’ll be able to implement straight away with your teams.
https://www.apm.org.uk/news/does-happiness-pay/
-Project professionals: Ready for the future? Climate change, Leigh WoodcockAPMDonotuse
The APM South Wales and West of England Branch held yet another fantastic conference on 18 October 2023.
Speaker: Leigh Woodcock
In 2023, we as project professionals face a world of increasing uncertainty, with political and market conflicts, the continued impacts of COVID-19, and the climate crisis influencing the world we operate in. At the same time, domestic and international sustainability goals, diversity and inclusion targets and new, collaborative technologies are guiding us to build a better future. As a community, how can we ensure we’re ready?
Join us at the APM’s South Wales & West of England branch’s 2023 Conference to explore the ways in which our landscape is changing, and how we as project professionals can stay at the forefront of this ever-evolving world.
Project professionals: Ready for the future? Soft skills,Marion ThomasAPMDonotuse
The APM South Wales and West of England Branch held yet another fantastic conference on 18 October 2023.
Speaker: Marion Thomas
In 2023, we as project professionals face a world of increasing uncertainty, with political and market conflicts, the continued impacts of COVID-19, and the climate crisis influencing the world we operate in. At the same time, domestic and international sustainability goals, diversity and inclusion targets and new, collaborative technologies are guiding us to build a better future. As a community, how can we ensure we’re ready?
Join us at the APM’s South Wales & West of England branch’s 2023 Conference to explore the ways in which our landscape is changing, and how we as project professionals can stay at the forefront of this ever-evolving world.
Project professionals: Ready for the future? APM Skills, Julie MorrisAPMDonotuse
The APM South Wales and West of England Branch held yet another fantastic conference on 18 October 2023.
Speaker: Julie Morris
In 2023, we as project professionals face a world of increasing uncertainty, with political and market conflicts, the continued impacts of COVID-19, and the climate crisis influencing the world we operate in. At the same time, domestic and international sustainability goals, diversity and inclusion targets and new, collaborative technologies are guiding us to build a better future. As a community, how can we ensure we’re ready?
Join us at the APM’s South Wales & West of England branch’s 2023 Conference to explore the ways in which our landscape is changing, and how we as project professionals can stay at the forefront of this ever-evolving world.
Project professionals: Ready for the future? AI and Change Management, James ...APMDonotuse
The APM South Wales and West of England Branch held yet another fantastic conference on 18 October 2023.
Speaker: James Lewis
In 2023, we as project professionals face a world of increasing uncertainty, with political and market conflicts, the continued impacts of COVID-19, and the climate crisis influencing the world we operate in. At the same time, domestic and international sustainability goals, diversity and inclusion targets and new, collaborative technologies are guiding us to build a better future. As a community, how can we ensure we’re ready?
Join us at the APM’s South Wales & West of England branch’s 2023 Conference to explore the ways in which our landscape is changing, and how we as project professionals can stay at the forefront of this ever-evolving world.
Project professionals: Ready for the future? Artificially Intelligent Project...APMDonotuse
The APM South Wales and West of England Branch held yet another fantastic conference on 18 October 2023.
Speaker: James Doherty
In 2023, we as project professionals face a world of increasing uncertainty, with political and market conflicts, the continued impacts of COVID-19, and the climate crisis influencing the world we operate in. At the same time, domestic and international sustainability goals, diversity and inclusion targets and new, collaborative technologies are guiding us to build a better future. As a community, how can we ensure we’re ready?
Join us at the APM’s South Wales & West of England branch’s 2023 Conference to explore the ways in which our landscape is changing, and how we as project professionals can stay at the forefront of this ever-evolving world.
Team Lead Succeed – Helping You And Your Team Achieve High-Performance TeamworkAPMDonotuse
APM event hosted by Wessex Branch on 28 September 2023.
Speaker: Nick Fewings, Managing Director, Ngagementworks
Only 10% of teams achieve high-performance, with 50% being average and 40% dysfunctional.
In this session, delivered by award-winning conference speaker Nick Fewings, and author of best-seller Team Lead Succeed, Nick will share his 30+ years of leading teams and facilitating team development.
Nick has profiled 1,000 of individuals and worked with 100s of teams.
Those attending will benefit from understanding;
The importance of knowing WHO is in your team, both from a behavioural and technical skills aspect.
The 16 areas of high-performance teamwork, and their importance.
In March 2022, Nick Fewings, MD of Ngagementworks, published Team Lead Succeed, based on his 30+years of both leading operational and project teams, and subsequently facilitating team development around the world.
It has become a best seller, has 96% 5-star reviews, has been read on 5 of the 7 continents, and has been accepted for the prestigious Business Book Awards 2023.
In this interactive session, Nick will share learning from Team Lead Succeed that can be applied immediately and make a positive difference to your teamwork. Nick will share the importance of knowing both WHO is in your team and also HOW effective your teamwork is.
Navigating Difficult Conversations on Projects WebinarAPMDonotuse
APM webinar hosted the South East Branch on 27 September 2023.
Speaker: Marion Thomas
This Webinar explored the art of engaging in difficult conversations, equipped project leaders with practical strategies and insights that align with the principles and practices advocated by the APM Body of Knowledge. Marion Thomas, experienced PM, speaker, certified coach, ChPP mentor, and trainer in leadership, led this discussion.
We explored how to engage in those challenging conversations that are often necessary for project success whilst also protecting ourselves professionally.
As project leaders, we understand the importance of effective communication and how it can significantly impact project success. However, sometimes, we find ourselves faced with challenging conversations that require finesse and skill to handle. In this talk, we delved into the art of engaging in difficult discussions while also safeguarding our professional integrity.
Throughout the project lifecycle, project leaders often encounter situations where they must initiate or participate in tough conversations with various stakeholders, customers, team members, and other involved parties. These conversations may range from addressing conflicts and disputes to becoming the messenger of undesirable news that can expose us to potential backlash. On the other hand, some project leaders may intentionally introduce a level of non-hostile positive conflict to encourage innovative thinking and creativity within the project.
In this engaging session, we provided valuable insights and actionable strategies to empower project leaders to navigate such challenging conversations effectively. Our expert speakers shared practical tips on how to approach these situations with confidence, ensuring the best possible outcomes for both the project and our colleagues.
https://youtu.be/GraQYcSgcQI
https://www.apm.org.uk/news/navigating-difficult-conversations-on-projects-webinar/
Inclusive Impact: How to make sure disability isn’t a barrier in your project...APMDonotuse
APM webinar hosted by Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire Branch on 21 September 2023.
Speaker - Kayleigh Chambers, NSPCC - Linkedin
According to Scope, approximately 23% of working age adults have some form of disability. This webinar was held on 21 September 2023.
According to the British Dyslexia Association, up to 15% of the adult population may have dyslexia or another Specific Learning Difficulty.
This means that it is highly likely in our projects we are working with or for someone who is neurodivergent or has a disability.
By making small changes to our practice we can increase the likelihood of project success by enabling all stakeholders to contribute their full potential.
Content covered:
Definitions (Disability, Equality, Neuro-Diversity)
As project mangers we rely on documentation for everything; quality assurance, scope, PIDs, planning, even meeting notes. How do we make our documents more accessible so that people use them?
Meetings should be a protected and productive time. What can you do to make sure people are welcomed and contributing?
In person events – How do you ensure everyone feels welcome to attend – and is able to be fully involved?
Top tips for products & services design
No prior knowledge is required.
Martin Paver - APM Scotland Branch Conference 2023: Net Zero Nation and Susta...APMDonotuse
Marvin Paver - Closing Keynote, Data Analytics
The APM Scotland Branch have continued the face-to-face Branch Conference series with a full day event on 7 September 2023.
Considering our ever changing environment is a vital skill for a Project Manager as they bring together a wide range of knowledge and expertise to fulfil projects in an ever evolving world where data, artificial intelligence and sustainability all play an important part
Steve Maclaren - APM Scotland Branch Conference 2023: Net Zero Nation and Sus...APMDonotuse
Steve Maclaren - Robotics and AI in project management: The future:
The APM Scotland Branch have continued the face-to-face Branch Conference series with a full day event on 7 September 2023.
Considering our ever changing environment is a vital skill for a Project Manager as they bring together a wide range of knowledge and expertise to fulfil projects in an ever evolving world where data, artificial intelligence and sustainability all play an important part
Dr Melissa Marques-McEwan - APM Scotland Branch Conference 2023: Net Zero Nat...APMDonotuse
Dr Melissa Marques-McEwan - Circular economy and Project Management:
compatible concepts?
The APM Scotland Branch have continued the face-to-face Branch Conference series with a full day event on 7 September 2023.
Considering our ever changing environment is a vital skill for a Project Manager as they bring together a wide range of knowledge and expertise to fulfil projects in an ever evolving world where data, artificial intelligence and sustainability all play an important part.
Liam Macintyre - APM Scotland Branch Conference 2023: Net Zero Nation and Sus...APMDonotuse
Liam Macintyre - Competence in Energy Transition
The APM Scotland Branch have continued the face-to-face Branch Conference series with a full day event on 7 September 2023.
Considering our ever changing environment is a vital skill for a Project Manager as they bring together a wide range of knowledge and expertise to fulfil projects in an ever evolving world where data, artificial intelligence and sustainability all play an important part.
Dr Karen Thompson - APM Scotland Branch Conference 2023: Net Zero Nation and...APMDonotuse
Dr Karen Thompson - A mind shift for sustainability
The APM Scotland Branch have continued the face-to-face Branch Conference series with a full day event on 7 September 2023.
Considering our ever changing environment is a vital skill for a Project Manager as they bring together a wide range of knowledge and expertise to fulfil projects in an ever evolving world where data, artificial intelligence and sustainability all play an important part.
Adam Boddison - APM Scotland Branch Conference 2023: Net Zero Nation and Sust...APMDonotuse
Adam Boddison - welcome
The APM Scotland Branch have continued the face-to-face Branch Conference series with a full day event on 7 September 2023.
Considering our ever changing environment is a vital skill for a Project Manager as they bring together a wide range of knowledge and expertise to fulfil projects in an ever evolving world where data, artificial intelligence and sustainability all play an important part.
Embracing GenAI - A Strategic ImperativePeter Windle
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies such as Generative AI, Image Generators and Large Language Models have had a dramatic impact on teaching, learning and assessment over the past 18 months. The most immediate threat AI posed was to Academic Integrity with Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) focusing their efforts on combating the use of GenAI in assessment. Guidelines were developed for staff and students, policies put in place too. Innovative educators have forged paths in the use of Generative AI for teaching, learning and assessments leading to pockets of transformation springing up across HEIs, often with little or no top-down guidance, support or direction.
This Gasta posits a strategic approach to integrating AI into HEIs to prepare staff, students and the curriculum for an evolving world and workplace. We will highlight the advantages of working with these technologies beyond the realm of teaching, learning and assessment by considering prompt engineering skills, industry impact, curriculum changes, and the need for staff upskilling. In contrast, not engaging strategically with Generative AI poses risks, including falling behind peers, missed opportunities and failing to ensure our graduates remain employable. The rapid evolution of AI technologies necessitates a proactive and strategic approach if we are to remain relevant.
Macroeconomics- Movie Location
This will be used as part of your Personal Professional Portfolio once graded.
Objective:
Prepare a presentation or a paper using research, basic comparative analysis, data organization and application of economic information. You will make an informed assessment of an economic climate outside of the United States to accomplish an entertainment industry objective.
Instructions for Submissions thorugh G- Classroom.pptxJheel Barad
This presentation provides a briefing on how to upload submissions and documents in Google Classroom. It was prepared as part of an orientation for new Sainik School in-service teacher trainees. As a training officer, my goal is to ensure that you are comfortable and proficient with this essential tool for managing assignments and fostering student engagement.
Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...Levi Shapiro
Letter from the Congress of the United States regarding Anti-Semitism sent June 3rd to MIT President Sally Kornbluth, MIT Corp Chair, Mark Gorenberg
Dear Dr. Kornbluth and Mr. Gorenberg,
The US House of Representatives is deeply concerned by ongoing and pervasive acts of antisemitic
harassment and intimidation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Failing to act decisively to ensure a safe learning environment for all students would be a grave dereliction of your responsibilities as President of MIT and Chair of the MIT Corporation.
This Congress will not stand idly by and allow an environment hostile to Jewish students to persist. The House believes that your institution is in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, and the inability or
unwillingness to rectify this violation through action requires accountability.
Postsecondary education is a unique opportunity for students to learn and have their ideas and beliefs challenged. However, universities receiving hundreds of millions of federal funds annually have denied
students that opportunity and have been hijacked to become venues for the promotion of terrorism, antisemitic harassment and intimidation, unlawful encampments, and in some cases, assaults and riots.
The House of Representatives will not countenance the use of federal funds to indoctrinate students into hateful, antisemitic, anti-American supporters of terrorism. Investigations into campus antisemitism by the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Ways and Means have been expanded into a Congress-wide probe across all relevant jurisdictions to address this national crisis. The undersigned Committees will conduct oversight into the use of federal funds at MIT and its learning environment under authorities granted to each Committee.
• The Committee on Education and the Workforce has been investigating your institution since December 7, 2023. The Committee has broad jurisdiction over postsecondary education, including its compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, campus safety concerns over disruptions to the learning environment, and the awarding of federal student aid under the Higher Education Act.
• The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating the sources of funding and other support flowing to groups espousing pro-Hamas propaganda and engaged in antisemitic harassment and intimidation of students. The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is the principal oversight committee of the US House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X.
• The Committee on Ways and Means has been investigating several universities since November 15, 2023, when the Committee held a hearing entitled From Ivory Towers to Dark Corners: Investigating the Nexus Between Antisemitism, Tax-Exempt Universities, and Terror Financing. The Committee followed the hearing with letters to those institutions on January 10, 202
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17Celine George
It is possible to hide or invisible some fields in odoo. Commonly using “invisible” attribute in the field definition to invisible the fields. This slide will show how to make a field invisible in odoo 17.
The Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdfkaushalkr1407
The Roman Empire, a vast and enduring power, stands as one of history's most remarkable civilizations, leaving an indelible imprint on the world. It emerged from the Roman Republic, transitioning into an imperial powerhouse under the leadership of Augustus Caesar in 27 BCE. This transformation marked the beginning of an era defined by unprecedented territorial expansion, architectural marvels, and profound cultural influence.
The empire's roots lie in the city of Rome, founded, according to legend, by Romulus in 753 BCE. Over centuries, Rome evolved from a small settlement to a formidable republic, characterized by a complex political system with elected officials and checks on power. However, internal strife, class conflicts, and military ambitions paved the way for the end of the Republic. Julius Caesar’s dictatorship and subsequent assassination in 44 BCE created a power vacuum, leading to a civil war. Octavian, later Augustus, emerged victorious, heralding the Roman Empire’s birth.
Under Augustus, the empire experienced the Pax Romana, a 200-year period of relative peace and stability. Augustus reformed the military, established efficient administrative systems, and initiated grand construction projects. The empire's borders expanded, encompassing territories from Britain to Egypt and from Spain to the Euphrates. Roman legions, renowned for their discipline and engineering prowess, secured and maintained these vast territories, building roads, fortifications, and cities that facilitated control and integration.
The Roman Empire’s society was hierarchical, with a rigid class system. At the top were the patricians, wealthy elites who held significant political power. Below them were the plebeians, free citizens with limited political influence, and the vast numbers of slaves who formed the backbone of the economy. The family unit was central, governed by the paterfamilias, the male head who held absolute authority.
Culturally, the Romans were eclectic, absorbing and adapting elements from the civilizations they encountered, particularly the Greeks. Roman art, literature, and philosophy reflected this synthesis, creating a rich cultural tapestry. Latin, the Roman language, became the lingua franca of the Western world, influencing numerous modern languages.
Roman architecture and engineering achievements were monumental. They perfected the arch, vault, and dome, constructing enduring structures like the Colosseum, Pantheon, and aqueducts. These engineering marvels not only showcased Roman ingenuity but also served practical purposes, from public entertainment to water supply.
Reference Class Forecasting - useful method, or random number generator? webinar
1. Reference class forecasting -
useful method, or random
number generator?
1
18th of October 2023
Dr Michala Techau, Head of Resilience and
Sustainability at Oxford Global Projects
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
Any use of this material without specific permission of Oxford Global Projects is strictly prohibited
For the Association for Project Management
2. Using mega projects as a force for good
The why, when, and how to use Reference Class
Forecasting (RCF) as a method for systematically taking
an outside view to predict uncertainty in mega project
planning and delivery.
Wider context - mega projects are key to the green
transitioning and getting estimates (more) right, is
important in mapping how to reach net zero targets.
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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2
3. What will we cover?
• Example of mega project performance
• What are the main causes of mega project risk?
• What are the cures for mega project risk?
• How do you apply reference class forecasting?
• What are typical misconceptions about reference class
forecasting?
• Q&A
3
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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5. In mega project performance – there is room for improvement…
5
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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6. 6
Edinburgh tram - delivery can be doomed before you
start
…if your forecast is wrong
• Estimate: £498m + a £37m contingency = £535m (2007, Phase 1a only), opening 2011.
• Reality: £776m, opening 2014 ~ 52% over budget (and reduced scope).
• RCF estimate: £697-£781m
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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Source: The City of Edinburgh Council, 2013.
Report for the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry, 2018, B. Flyvbjerg and A. Budzier
7. 7
Hong Kong express rail link – using the “wrong anchor”
can set you up to fail
• Estimate: HK$39.5bn and 4 years to build.
• Reality: Four years in, no end in sight and ballooning
budget.
• RCF estimate: HK$85bn (high confidence, low risk) and a
six-year project schedule.
• XLR completed within budget and time.
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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8. Poll
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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8
Which of these five industries do you think perform best?
9. How reliably do we deliver our promises across industries?
Ø duration, years
Cost overrun
Benefits
overrun
Frequency of
cost overrun
Schedule
overrun
Cost
Black Swans
Olympics
7.1
157%
n/a
10 of 10
0%
57%
IT-led
change
3.3
73%
-28%
4 of 10
43%
18%
Dams
7.9
74%
-11%
8 of 10
45%
23%
Roads
4.9
15%
-4%
6 of 10
36%
3%
8.1
Rail
32%
-23%
7 of 10
31%
9%
Buildings
57%
-5%
7 of 10
29%
18%
6.7 6.8
238%
-23%
9 of 10
70%
43%
Nuclear
waste
storage
Solar
power
2.2
1%
n/a
4 of 10
2%
0%
Source: Oxford Global Projects Database (Q4 2022)
Note: Measured from date of decision to build, in constant prices
Black Swans (outliers) are defined as 1.5 times the Inter-Quartile Range (IQR) IQR=difference difference between the third quartile (Q3) and the first quartile (Q1).
9
10. 100.0%
47.9%
8.5%
0.5%
All projects
(n=16,357)
On-budget (or
better)
On-budget &
on-time
(or better)
On-budget &
on-time &
on-benefits
(or better)
Iron Law of (Mega)-Projects
“Over budget, over time, under benefits, over
and over again” (Professor Bent Flyvbjerg)
The iron law of mega projects
10
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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11. 100.0%
47.9%
8.5%
0.5%
All projects
(n=16,357)
On-budget (or
better)
On-budget &
on-time
(or better)
On-budget &
on-time &
on-benefits
(or better)
11
This is the likelihood of success
if we deliver projects as we have
always done!
The iron law of mega projects
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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13. CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
Any use of this material without specific permission of Oxford Global Projects is strictly prohibited 13
The root cause of overruns – the main risks are
internal, not external
Why do we
underestimate risk?
Risk is external All risks are internal
Overrun Underestimation
15. 15
Optimism bias: “The cognitive predisposition
found with most people to judge future events in
a more positive light than is warranted by actual
experience.” (Flyvbjerg 2006)
“The planning fallacy is a consequence of the tendency to
neglect distributional data, and to adopt what may be
termed an 'internal approach' to prediction, where one
focuses on the constituents of the specific problem rather
than on the distribution of outcomes in similar cases.”
(Kahneman & Tversky 1977)
Psychological explanation – what are the most
important biases in projects management?
16. 16
How optimism bias influence our decision making -
experimental demonstration
• Almost all newlyweds in a US study expected their marriage to
last a lifetime, even while aware of the divorce statistics
• Professional financial analysts consistently overestimated
corporate earnings
• Second-year MBA students overestimated the number of job
offers they would receive and their starting salary
• Most smokers believed they are less at risk of developing
smoking-related diseases than others who smoke
18. A planner on cost underestimation
“…as a planner, you will often know the real
costs. You know that the budget is too low, but it
is difficult to pass such a message to the
counsellors [politicians] and the private actors.
They know that high costs reduce the chances
of national funding.”
18
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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19. Poll
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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Which of these two impact your project most?
21. The Big Idea
Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) is an alternative
forecasting method that uses data from past similar projects to
forecast the range of possible outturn costs and / or schedule.
The best predictor of performance in a planned project
is actual performance in a class of implemented,
comparable projects. Reference Class Forecasts do not
guarantee accuracy, just most accurate forecasts.
The method is based on theories that won the Nobel Prize in
Economics (planning fallacy, optimism bias).
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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22. Reference Class
Forecasting
Our reference class forecasting tool has been cited by Nobel
Laureate Daniel Kahneman as “the single most important
piece of advice regarding how to increase accuracy in
forecasting through improved methods.”
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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23. What reference class forecasting does
23
1 2
2
Outside View
Reference
Class
Inside View
Experts’ Forecast
Regresses best guess toward
the mean of the reference class
1
Expands estimate of interval
to interval of the reference class
2
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24. Unknown-unknowns
RCF takes into account “unknown unknowns”.
How? By incorporating in the reference class ALL effects on
performance, including “unknown unknowns”.
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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25. How do you Apply Reference Class
Forecasting to Mega Projects?
26. The three steps of RCF
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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We show the cost overruns experienced
by the projects in the reference class as a
cumulative distribution....
50% of projects had an
overrun of 25%
1. Build a reference class of similar projects
2. Establish probability distribution for the reference class
3. Compare your project with the distribution
26
Cost overrun is calculated as
𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡
𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡
P80 = 85%
…which - provided your project performs
no better or worse than projects in the
reference class - can be translated into
probability.
1. 2. 3.
27. High Speed 2 - Phase One cost estimate provided by
OGP in 2019
Cost heading Cost GBP million*
Contracts & Delivery team 1,150
Tunnels 2,910
Civils 3,990
Stations 2,545
Depots and stabling 720
Railway systems 1,560
On-network works 480
Land & property 1,630
Corporate overheads 1,265
Total cost 15,650
27
HS2 Ltd’s Phase one base cost estimate @ OBC
Source: UK Department for Transport
*2013 cost year
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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28. HS2 Ltd’s Outline Business Case estimate of cost risk*
applying Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA)
28
P95 = £5.75bn
= +37%
P50 = £3.75bn =
+24%
Risk
identification
workshop
Expert
assessment
Monte Carlo
simulation
Limitations
ignored
* Size of a potential cost
overrun over the £15.65bn
base cost estimate in real
terms, Outline Business Case
(OBC)
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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29. • Selecting past similar projects, based on statistical similarity
• Testing whether average, median (P50), P80, P90, P95 are statistically
significantly different from high-speed rail
• Only fixed links are comparable for the full range of estimates from
P50-P95
• Final selected reference class included 39 high-speed rail projects
and 132 fixed links = 171 projects
Is this project type a
suitable comparator for
HSR projects? (n=39)
Average P50 P80 P90 P95
Conv. rail (n=113) ✔ ✔ ✔
Fixed link (n=132) ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Metro (n=196) ✔ ✔ ✔
Road (n=658) ✔ ✔
✔ No statistically
significant difference
✗ Statistically
significant
difference
Step 1: Building a reference class for HS2
29
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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30. Step 2: Establishing the cost risk distribution for the
reference class
30
• Cost overruns in 3 out of 4
projects but also cost
underruns
• High-cost overruns not
unlikely: 1 in 8 projects more
than doubled in cost
50% of projects had
an overrun of 23%
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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31. Step 3: Comparing the inside view estimate with the
RCF “outside view”
31
• P50 risk (+24%) in conventional forecast = P51 in reference class
• P95 risk (+37%) in conventional forecast = P70 in reference class!
• P95 in reference class = +136%
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33. 33
Institute for Government publication “HS2: costs and controversies. How much has the HS2 project cost since its inception?” 5th October 2023
Comparing RCF estimate with current status of HS2 –
Phase 1 only estimated to cost around £40bn
Recent abandonment of Phase 2 limits estimated spend to £35-45bn (2019 prices) for Phase 1.
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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35. 35
Examples of typical misconceptions about RCF
• Contingency upon contingency
• Where we have data without contingency, the resulting RCF provides suggested uplift to add to deterministic baseline cost
– do you know how much padding is already added to your estimate?
• History repeating
• No – set out to beat the odds. RCF makes you aware of how projects performed in the past, set out to understand why, so
you can mitigate and outperform previous projects.
• Comparing apples with rocks
• RCF is not about exact similarity of technology, but about similarity of risk distributions, e.g., for FoaK projects types, it is
still insightful to see how other FoaK projects performed.
• It is too subjective
• Adjustments to where your project sits on the RCF curve needs to be made as objectively AND consistently as possible.
• Our project will never be approved
• Inflating project cost / schedule using RCF suggested uplifts does look scary – but there to inform discussions on risk
appetite and affordability. More projects should go back to the drawing board!
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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36. Key take home message on RCF
Enhances accuracy of
estimates by leveraging
full distributions of
historical data - to provide
a more realistic and
objective basis for decision
making
36
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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37. 37
So how do we beat the odds and use mega projects as a
force for good?
• Informing policy for better incentivisation?
• Optimising resource allocation
• Project appraisal – selection effect
• Often the worst projects are approved, because they look
best on paper (highest BCR)
• Require more efficient delivery of projects
• Experience – people and technology
• Avoid the eternal beginner syndrome
• Modularity
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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40. When to apply RCF and how it complements QRA
Estimate adjustments are needed before there is enough
certainty for QRA* - the IPA recommends using RCF
first, and then transitioning to QRA
Source: Infrastructure and Projects authority (2021).
Project Routemap: Risk Management UK Module. London.
• At early planning stages when little is known
about the project (SOC), RCF provides a top-
down overall risk estimate.
• As more is known about the project and risk
becomes clearer (OBC), the QRA becomes
more reliable.
• As the project matures to FBC the RCF is used
as a benchmark to check the QRA is realistic
and correct for any biases and unknowns.
Low
Certainty
Business case
stages
SOC OBC FBC
Increasing
certainty
Medium
Certainty
High
Certainty
*QRA – Quantitative Risk Assessment
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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41. How risk distribution for historical data compares to
an example of a current estimate in the nuclear industry
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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Clear difference between the Monte Carlo risk model (green) and the historical data, both inclusive (blue) and exclusive (orange) of the North
American projects. Especially for values greater than P50.
42. Bad data +
bad models
→ Error
Error means
• Overestimation as likely
as underestimation
• Overestimation similar
size as underestimation
• In the long run they
average out
Transport
infrastructure
(n=1,505)
Average
overrun
Standard
deviation
Level of significance
(p)
Cost 28% 61% < 0.001
Schedule 37% 53% < 0.001
Benefits -6% 43% < 0.001
The project performance data reject the error hypothesis.
Technical explanation
42
43. • Within an industry, programmes or projects
are statistically very similar, in terms of cost,
schedule and benefit risks.
• The assumption of uniqueness does not stand
up to hard, statistical test, it’s a myth.
• Truly unique programs are rare; even projects
like the Greenlandic Arctic Circle Road have
similarities with other projects.
• Statistical similarity is all we need for RCF and
better risk management.
Uniqueness bias – unique projects are rarer than you think
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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44. 44
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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• Risk appetite reflects decision-makers’ willingness to make investments
with uncertain outcomes
• Risk appetite depends not only on the risks involved in a specific capital
project but also on the organisations general attitude to risk as well as the
size of other risks the organisation carries
• In the context of projects’ forecasts, risk appetite determines the level of
certainty sought in a forecast, or inversely, the acceptable chance of an
overrun for the project
• More risk averse organisations seeking higher level of confidence in their
estimates have lower acceptable chance of overruns
• However, there is a trade-off between economic viability, affordability, and
target setting that must be negotiated
Project appraisal
question
Risk appetite
level
Level of certainty
of estimates
Economic
viability for
organisation
Risk neutral at
portfolio level
P40-P60
Affordability in
worst case
scenario
Very low risk P80-P95
Target setting to
incentivise
performance
Moderate to low
risk
P30-P50
OGP guides projects to navigate around complex risk appetite
discussions on economic viability, affordability &
performance incentives
Applying the findings to your project
45. How RCFs are applied to your project
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
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The S-curve is used to calculate the uplifts that need to be
added to the baseline estimate to provide different levels
of certainty of preventing an overrun
• You can then select the appropriate level of
probability for your risk appetite and apply
the corresponding uplift.
• Or you can compare your existing total
contingency to find out what level of
probability your current contingency
provides.
45
46. Edinburgh tram extension – taking an outside view
from the beginning for a better forecast
• For the extension of the Edinburgh tram, from St Andrew Square to the waterfront at Ocean Terminal, OGP provided
support with budget and schedule estimation
• The decision was to use P50 – and the extension was completed on time and on budget
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
Any use of this material without specific permission of Oxford Global Projects is strictly prohibited
https://www.railtech.com/all/2023/02/21/edinburgh-trams-extension-opening-finally-announced/
Report for the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry, 2018, B. Flyvbjerg and A. Budzier
46
47. 47
Top 10 behavioural biases in project planning and
management
Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/87569728211049046
48. Other methods
48
Appropriate budget contingency
determination for construction projects:
State-of-the-art
Author links open overlay
panelTaher Ammar, Mohamed Abdel-
Monem, Karim El-Dash
49. The External View: 20+ Years of Megaproject Research
13
Optimism bias
Political bias
Escalation of
commitment
Decision
making
Builder-buyer-user-funder
federation
Governance
Delivery model
Formal authority Informal authority
Strategy &
governance
Socio-politics
Leadership
Capabilities
Capacity
Manufacturing
integration and
coordination
Programatics
Commercials
System
integration
Systems
Procedures
Tools
Novelty
Scale &
pace
Emergence &
change
Predict &
provide
Predict &
prevent
Contingency
Buffer
Risk &
uncertainty
Institutional
context
Structures
Rules
Informal
norms
Fragmentation
Community
engagement
Stakeholder
engagement
Megaproject
performance
Adapted from:
Denicol, J., Davies, A. and Krystallis, I., 2020. What are the causes and cures of poor megaproject performance? A systematic literature review and research agenda. Project Management Journal, 51(3), pp.328-345.
49
50. Iron Law of (Mega)-Projects
“Over budget, over time, under
benefits, over and over again”
Summary
2 Key Challenges to Overcome the Iron Law (of many)
Decision Quality
Value Tracking
+
• Reference Class Forecasting
• Decision checklists
• Early-Warning Sign Systems
• Real-time tracking
Build
er
User Buyer
• Builder-Buyer-User Federation
• Shared values, behaviors, culture
Optimism bias
Political bias
Escalation of
commitment
Decision
making
Builder-buyer-user-funder
federation
Governance
Delivery model
Formal authority Informal authority
Strategy &
governance
Socio-politics
Leadership
Capabilities
Capacity
Manufacturing
integration and
coordination
Programatics
Commercials
System
integration
Systems
Procedures
Tools
Novelty
Scale &
pace
Emergence &
change
Predict &
provide
Predict &
prevent
Contingency
Buffer
Risk &
uncertainty
Institutional
context
Structures
Rules
Informal
norms
Fragmentation
Community
engagement
Stakeholder
engagement
Megaproject
performance
50
52. CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
Outcomes.
“How can we beat the
odds and outperform
history?”
Our RCF approach provides objective findings
that can answer practical questions.
52
53. Independent Studies
1. Sydney Water Corporation, 11 infrastructure projects with RCF showed a significantly increased likelihood of completing under budget
(Napier and Liu, 2008).
2. Australian State Road and Traffic Authority, 44 projects with RCF showed increased forecast accuracy (Liu, Wehbe, and Siscovic, 2010).
3. Bridge construction forecast based on RCF and Bayesian updating produced more accurate forecasts (Kim and Reinschmidt, 2011)
4. RCF and Bayesian forecast of healthcare cost in 8 car manufacturing plants produced more accurate forecasts (Bordley, 2014)
5. A study of 56 construction projects shows that RCF outperforms conventional techniques, i.e. bottom-up estimation EVM and Monte Carlo
simulations (Batselier and Vanhoucke, 2016)
6. Application of RCF to Bujagali hydropower dam project increased accuracy of the cost-benefit analysis (Awojobi and Jenkins, 2016)
7. A study of 399 political forecasters shows that those trained and using RCF, taking different perspectives, and post-mortem analyses
produced more accurate forecasts (Chang, Chen, Mellers, and Tetlock, 2016)
8. Application of RCF on 369 Turkish public works projects resulted in reasonably accurate predictions (Bayram and Al-Jibouri, 2017)
9. Integrating RCF into EVM on 23 construction projects produced more accurate predictions of schedule performance (Batselier and
Vanhoucke, 2017)
10. RCF on 222 chemical industry projects proved effective for large homogenous projects but useless for less homogenous projects with little
historical data (Walcak and Majchrzak, 2018)
11. RCF improved the estimates of the cost of contaminated spoil removal in 3 nuclear projects (Devine, 2019)
12. A re-signaling project in Denmark applied RCF but still overran the budget because managers re-introduced optimism when selecting the
reference class (Themsen, 2019)
13. A modified RCF approach to estimate the remaining schedule to complete was accurate to 5 percentage points in 4 offshore oil and gas
projects (Dehghan et al., 2020)
14. RCF led to less optimistic forecasts in 322 project forecasts conducted as part of an experimental study (Friesdorf, 2020)
15. Providing RCF information to guide schedule forecasts in 139 experimental estimates improved the forecast accuracy, but more detailed
information about the task did not (Lorko et al., 2020)
16. The application of RCF to oil and gas production rates for the Norwegian Continental Shelf reduced optimism bias and increased forecast
accuracy
from 33% to 77% (at P80) (Jehan and Storsveen, 2020)
17. The first-ever RCF application in Germany, on Stuttgart 21, would have predicted the current cost overrun (Steininger et al., 2021)
18. The average cost overrun of UK major projects has reduced from 50% to 5% following the introduction of RCF (Park, 2021).
53
A typical conclusion was drawn by
Batselier and Vanhoucke (2016),
who said: "The conducted
evaluation is entirely based on
real-life project data and shows
that RCF indeed performs best, for
both cost and time forecasting, and
therefore supports the practical
relevance of the technique.”
• Introduced as Government Policy in major projects in the UK in 2004;
updated in 2021 for Department for Transport* and currently by Treasury
• Hong Kong’s DEVB introduced RCF starting in 2012**
• In 2019 adopted as policy in Ireland’s Spending Code and first adopted by Transport
Infrastructure Ireland in 2020
54. We help clients
navigate the UK
Government’s
business case
and approval
process for
projects & and
programmes.
55. CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
Any use of this material without specific permission of Oxford Global Projects is strictly prohibited
Our definition of risk
Risk = Negative uncertainty (downside)
Uncertainty = More than one possible outcome, i.e., “more things can happen than will
happen”
Positive uncertainty = Opportunity (upside)
Avg
Cost, schedule
or benefit
1sd 2sd
55
56. 56
M+ Museum in Hong Kong
• Hong Kong's M+ Museum (set opening date at RCF80;
managed to hit that target).
• From an initial HK$21.6 billion ($2.75 billion) to more
than HK$47.1 billion ($6 billion) after a reevaluation in
2013 and almost HK$70 billion ($8.91 billion) in 2021.
(M+ itself had an initial cost of HK$5.9 billion [$750
million] that city authorities confirmed has been
exceeded). On a broader scale, despite the district’s built
progress, there is still a lack of clear proposed public
policy that would foster local art production, a void
which paints the scheme as tourism-oriented rather than
for the benefit of the city’s arts scene.
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
Any use of this material without specific permission of Oxford Global Projects is strictly prohibited
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3103507/head-hong-kongs-west-kowloon-cultural-district
57. Cost and schedule overrun
Cost overrun is calculated as 𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡
𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡
Schedule overrun is calculated as 𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
Actual project cost refers to total project cost, which
includes all costs that materialised in the project.
Estimated project cost is the most likely project cost
estimate. Same for schedule.
As such, the overrun RCF data represent how much
additional budget or time projects needed to complete.
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
57
58. Productivity 1995-Today
(GDP created by 1 hour of work in each industry baselined to 1995 = 100)
Note: 27 EU countries 58
100
125
150
175
200
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Productivity
per
hour
worked
(1996=100) Construction
Finance
ICT
Industry
Manufacturing
Prof. services
Trade
ICT
Manufacturing
Industry
Finance
Trade
Construction
Professional services