The document describes the Delphi method, which is used to elicit expert opinions anonymously through multiple rounds of questionnaires. It was developed at RAND in the 1960s to avoid confrontations. Participants remain anonymous and receive feedback on others' responses. The document provides examples of past Delphi studies covering topics like technology forecasts and scenario planning.

1. Ted Gordon Senior Research Fellow The Millennium Project World Federation of United Nations Associations

3. From Gordon and Helmer, A Long Range Forecasting Study, RAND, 1964 Economically useful desalination of sea water 1970 1964-1980 Effective fertility control by oral contraceptive 1970 1970-1983 Development of new synthetic ultra light materials 1971 1970-1978 Automated language translators 1972 1968-1976 New organs through transplanting or prosthesis 1972 1968-1982 Reliable weather forecasts 1975 1972-1988 Operation of a central data storage facility 1980 1971-1991 Reformation of quantum relativity 1980 1975-1993 Implanted artificial organs made of plastic and electronic components 1981 1975-1988 Widespread and socially acceptable use of psychotropic drugs 1983 1980-2000 Creation of a form of artificial life (at least in the form of self replicating molecules) 1989 1979-2000 Economically useful exploitation of the ocean bottom 1980 1980-2000 Feasibility of limited weather control 1990 1987-2000 Commercial generation of protein for food 1990 1985-2003 Drug treatment for psychotic cases 1992 1983-2017 Biochemical general immunization 1994 1983-2000

4. Sociologist Economist Technologist Environment Person 1 XXX XXX Person 2 XXX Person 3 XXX Person 4 XXX Person 5 XXX XXX Person 6 XXX Person 7 XXX XXX Person 8 XXX TOTAL 3 2 2 3

14. Possible Development Likelihood by 2030 (%) 1. National programs for improving collective intelligence Some richer as well as lower income countries have (by this year of 2030) made improving collective intelligence a national goal; this includes improving individual as well as intelligence for their nations-as-whole. Click here to see references Likelihood by 2030 The average group answer: 61.7 Respondents: 195 Comments on this possibility (page 2) click here 2. Just in time knowledge and learning Rote learning has diminished in importance. With ubiquitous computing and education for life-long learning, 'just in time knowledge' has become the norm. Reasoning, problem solving, and learning strategies form the core focus of public educational systems. Click here to see references Likelihood by 2030 The average group answer: 71.1 Respondents: 185 Comments on this possibility (page 2) click here

15. 1. What might encourage this possibility? What positive consequences might follow? Please enter positive developments and consequences. If you wish to change your prior input, type it here: