An introduction to creating a State of the Future Index. An index to forecast the trend of a country or regions future.

1. World Federation of United Nations Associations The Millennium Project October, 2007

2. http://www.weforum.org/en/media/Latest%20Press%20Releases/voiceofthepeoplesurvey

3. http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brmiddleeastnafricara/165.php?nid=&id=&pnt=165&lb=brme

14. Sheet Title General notes on this sheet Specific instructions Operational portion SHEET 1: HISTORY AND EXTRAPOLATIONS. THIS IS THE WORKSHEET THAT RECEIVES ALL NATIONAL HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS OF THE VARIABLES. THE DATA SHOWN HERE IS FOR EXAMPLE ONLY; THEY APPLY TO NO COUNTRY. PLEASE SUBSTITUTE YOUR DATA FOR THAT PRESENTED HERE. Notes on the use of this spreadsheet : On this spreadsheet, you will enter the historical data for all your variables. You should obtain the equation for the best fit curve using other software It is good practice to show all "hard" data in bold print. You can use this sheet to calculate future values and (interpolate) missing data points using the best fit equations which should be entered on rows 45-60. Also please enter data sources for later reference on rows 44-45. Variable Number >>>> >>>>>>> 1 2 CO2 emissions (percent of global emissions) Energy produced from non fission, non fossil sources (percent of total primary national energy supply) 1985 1.700 13.122 1986 1.720 13.134 1987 1.740 13.146 1988 1.750 13.158 1989 2.000 13.170

15. 1 Infant mortality (deaths per 1,000 births) 2 Food availability (Calories/capita) 3 GDP per capita (constant 2000 US) 4 Improved water source (percent of population without access) 5 Carbon dioxide emissions (Metric tons per capita) 6 Population growth rate (percent per year) 7 Percent unemployment 8 Literacy rate, (percent of people aged 15 and above) 9 Prevalence of HIV (percent of population ages 15-49) 10 Life expectancy at birth (years)

16. 11 Armed conflicts {number involving >1,000 deaths /yr) 12 Total Debt (percent of GDP: developing countries) 13 Forest Lands (% of land area) 14 People Living on Less than $1 per day) (% population) 15 People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (number) 16 Homicides (49 countries, per 100,000 population) 17 People in Free/ Partially Free Countries (% population) 18 School Enrollment, secondary (% school age) 19 Healthcare workers (per 1,000 population) 20 Countries having nuclear weapons or plans (number)

17. 21 Energy produced from non fission, non fossil sources (percent of all energy produced) 22 R&D expenditures (percent of GDP) 23 Global Surface Temperature Anomalies (degrees C) 24 People voting in free elections (% voting age pop) 25 Internet Users (users/1000 population) 26 Number of refugees, asylum seekers, and internally displaced persons (millions) 27 Energy consumption per GDP (metric tons oil equivalent/million $) 28 Seats held by women in national parliaments (%) 29 Corruption (% of world's people living in countries rated as having low levels of corruption)

22. 1. The given data 2. Were fit by a quadratic equation 3. Yielding the full set of data 1991 51.81 1999 60.28 2000 62.06 2001 63.85 2002 66.59 2003 66.62 2004 65.06 Quadratic Fit: y=a+bx+cx^2 a= -48409.94 b = 47.371804 c = -0.01156779

27. Year Variable V1 (Increasing is good) Variable V2 (diminishing is good) 20 years ago 30 30 10 years ago 35 35 Ten Years hence 42 10 Extreme data point in desirable direction 42 10 Extreme data point in undesirable direction 30 30 Expert Best 43 8 Expert Worst 40 20

28. Year Variable V1 (non-dimensionalized ) Variable V2 (non-dimensionalized ) 20 years ago 0.00 0.19 10 years ago 0.38 0.00 Present Year 0.77 0.74 Ten Years hence 0.92 0.93

30. Best 2017) Worst 2017 Weight 1 CO2 emissions (percent of global emissions) 0 25 7.82 2 Energy produced from non fission, non fossil sources (% national energy supply) 20.52 13.68 8.05 3 Food availability (Kcalories/cap/day) 3,006 2,205 7.08 4 Forest Lands (percent of national land area) 32.03 25.02 7.21 5 Freedom Level (Country Score) 1 3 7.52 6 GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) 9,983 5,491 7.50 7 GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2000 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent) 5.29 4.86 8.00 8 Homicides, intentional (per 100,000 population) 4.89 14.66 6.92 9 Infant mortality (deaths per 1,000 live births) 42.09 89.00 7.01 10 Internet Users (per 1,000 population) 577.36 192.45 7.90 11 Levels of Corruption (as measured by TI surveys) 4.23 3.31 8.57 12 Life expectancy at birth (years) 75.06 65.05 7.14 13 Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above) 90.42 78.87 7.45

31. Best 2017) Worst 2017 Weight 14 Number of refugees displaced from the country (%) 0 10 6.93 15 People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (%) 0 0.1 7.66 16 People Voting in Elections (% voting age) 70.0 50.0 7.19 17 Physicians (per 1,000 people) 2.55 1.46 7.50 18 Population growth (annual %) 1.0 1.54 7.27 19 Population lacking access to improved water sources (%) 10.0 30.0 8.33 20 Poverty headcount ratio at $1 a day (PPP) (% pop) 12.72 26.49 7.84 21 Prevalence of HIV (percent of national population) 0.64 1.91 5.97 22 R&D Expenditures (percent of national budget) 4.0 2.0 8.63 23 School enrollment, secondary (percent gross) 79.35 59.15 8.09 24 Seats held by women in national parliament (%) 23.79 14.27 6.78 25 Total Debt Service (percent of GNI) 7.58 8.68 6.79 26 Unemployment, total (% of national labor force) 5.00 15.00 8.28

32. SOFI = sum (wt x ndv)/ SOFI ref Where SOFI is the value of the SOFI in a given year SOFI ref is the SOFI in the reference year wt is the weight assigned to a given variable ndv is the non dimensionalized value of the variable in that year

33. Development Probability by 2017 1 A nuclear accident such as Three Mile Island (causes many nuclear nations to de-nuclearize). 10 2 A very good, fast $150 laptop computer becomes available everywhere. 65 3 Advent of a “teachers without borders” movement (50,000 new teachers in the field) 30 4 A pandemic of the scale of HIV/AIDS 30 5 At least 10 countries introduce effective policies designed to increase birth rates 75 6 Automation and robotics increase productivity 25% to make “jobless" economic growth 50

34. A nuclear accident such as Three Mile Island (causes many nuclear nations to de-nuclearize). Impact 3.00 3.00 -2.00 Time 2.00 2.00 4.00 CO2 % Renew Food Forests Freedom GDP/C 2008 1.00 1 1.50 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.50 2009 2.00 2 3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.00 2010 3.00 3 3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.50 2011 4.00 4 3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2.00 2012 5.00 5 3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2.00 2013 6.00 6 3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2.00 2014 7.00 7 3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2.00 2015 8.00 8 3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2.00

37. Global SOFI National Comparison National Focus Variables Standard set Based on global; same for all countries. Newly chosen for the country Historical data Global data for last 2 decades National data for last 2 decades National data for last 2 decades Best and Worst estimates Chosen for global forecasts Use global estimates New values for the new variables and the country Weights Chosen for global forecasts Use global estimates New values for the new variables and the country TIA Developments Chosen for global forecasts Use global developments Developments important to the future of the country TIA Development Probabilities Estimated for global TIA developments Use global TIA development probabilities Global TIA values for global developments; new estimates for country specific developments TIA Development Impacts Estimated for global TIA developments and variables Use TIA development impacts as they might affect the country Use TIA development impacts as they might affect the country

44. Year 2000 Long-term Strategy management and warning system Zhouying JIN

45. Year 2020 Long-term Strategy management and warning system Zhouying JIN

46. Year 2050 Long-term Strategy management and warning system Zhouying JIN

47. Year 2050 If we succeed in strategic, institutional change and corporate behavior transformation …………in China optimistic Zhouying JIN