Public opinion polls have been used since 1916 to estimate public views on issues. George Gallup's polls were more accurate than Literary Digest polls in 1936 because Gallup used random sampling. Traditional polls determine question wording and sample selection carefully but have shortcomings like margin of error. People form opinions based on self-interest, beliefs, cues from leaders, ideology, and knowledge. The media landscape has evolved from partisan print to radio, TV, and online/social media. The government regulates media through the FCC while respecting free press. Media cover politics through press releases and conferences but focus more on negativity.

2.  public opinion: what the public thinks about a
particular issue or set of issues at any point in time.
 public opinion polls: interviews or surveys with
samples of citizens that are used to estimate the
feelings and beliefs of the entire population.

3. The History of Public Opinion Research
 Literary Digest began polling in 1916
 straw polls: unscientific surveys used to gauge public
opinion on a variety of issues and policies
 sample: a subset of the whole population selected to be
questioned for the purposes of prediction or gauging
opinion
 George Gallup got it right when Literary Digest got
it wrong (1936)

4. Traditional Public Opinion Polls
 Determining the content and phrasing the
questions
 The wording of the questions can affect the answers

5. Traditional Public Opinion Polls
 Selecting the sample
 random sampling: a method of poll selection that gives
each person in a group the same chance of being selected.
 stratified sampling: a variation of random sampling;
census data are used to divide the country into four
sampling regions. Sets of counties and standard
metropolitan statistical areas are then randomly selected
in proportion to the total national population.
 Volunteers have different opinions from those who do not
volunteer to answer survey.

6. Traditional Public Opinion Polls
 Contacting respondents
 Telephone most common (random digit dialing)
 Some in-person surveys done, but can affect responses

7. Political Polls
 push polls: polls taken for the purpose of
providing information on an opponent that
would lead respondents to vote against that
candidate.
 tracking polls: continuous surveys that enable
a campaign to chart its daily rise or fall in
support.
 exit polls: polls conducted at selected polling
places on Election Day
 1980 Carter conceded before the polls closed

8. Shortcomings of Polling
 Margin of error: a measure of the accuracy of a
public opinion poll.
 all polls contain errors
 makes prediction of close elections difficult
 Sampling error
 accuracy depends on the quality of the sample (equal
opportunity to be sampled)

9. Shortcomings of Polling
 Limited respondent options
 limited responses lead to inaccuracy
 Lack of information
 polls more inaccurate if they ask people about issues
that people don’t know or care about
 Difficulty measuring intensity

10. Why We Form and Express Political
Opinions
 Personal Benefits
 Will a policy affect us personally? We choose self-
interest.
 Is a policy related to moral issue? We choose personal
beliefs.
 Policy not personal, not moral? No opinion, swayed
easily.

11. Why We Form and Express Political
Opinions
 Political Knowledge
 Knowledge of history and politics is historically low
 More knowledge of the system increases participation
 We DO know general direction we want country to
take

12. Why We Form and Express Political
Opinions
 Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers
 Low levels of knowledge lead to rapid opinion shifts
 Political leaders can use mass media to influence
public opinion

13. Why We Form and Express Political
Opinions
 Political Ideology
 political ideology: the coherent set of values and
beliefs about the purpose and scope of government
held by groups and individuals
 conservatives, liberals and moderates

14. The Evolution of News Media in the United
States
 mass media – the entire array of organizations
through which information is collected and
disseminated to the general public
 news media – media providing the public with new
information about subjects of public interest

15. Print Media
 partisan press, newspapers took positions
(Federalists/Anti-Federalists)
 penny press, politically independent
 yellow journalism – a form of newspaper
publishing in vogue in the late nineteenth
century that featured
pictures, comics, color, and
sensationalized, oversimplified news coverage
 muckraking – a form of journalism, in vogue in
the early twentieth century, concerned with
reforming government and business conduct

16. Radio News
 “fireside chats” FDR New Deal
 decline, then rise of AM talk radio

17. Television News
 not a significant news source until after WWII

18.  decline of network news, rise of cable news
(CNN, Fox, others)

19.  rise of comedy news (SNL, Daily Show, Colbert
Report)

20. The New Media
 Internet

21. Current Media Trends
 The Influence of Media Giants
 National newspapers, networks, cable networks, wire
services
 Media Consolidation
 some fear limited flow of information

22. Current Media Trends
 Increasing Use of Experts
 consultants—who picked them, why should they shape
our views?
 Narrowcasting
 targeting a specific group
 Technological Innovation
 Blogs
 Social networks

23. Rules Governing the Media
 Journalistic Standards
 Code of Ethics, personal integrity

24. Rules Governing the Media
 Government Regulation of the Electronic Media
 airwaves are public property
 broadcasters lease airwaves from government
 airwaves are in limited supply
 FCC regulation of total national audience of
corporations

25. Rules Governing the Media
 Content Regulation
 content regulation – government attempts to
regulate the substance of the mass media
 equal time rule – the rule that requires broadcast
stations to sell air time equally to all candidates in a
political campaign if they choose to sell it to any

26. Rules Governing the Media
 Efforts to Control the News Media
 “Only a free and unrestrained press can effectively
expose deception in the government.” New York
Times Co. v. U.S. (1971)

27. How the Media Cover Politics
 How the Press and Public Figures Interact
 press release – a document offering an official
comment or position
 press briefing – a relatively restricted session between
a press secretary or aide and the press
 press conference – an unrestricted session between an
elected official and the press
 New York Times Co. v. Sullivan (1964) – the Supreme
Court concluded that “actual malice” must be proved to
support a finding of libel against a public figure

28. How the Media Cover Politics
 Covering the Presidency
 President can easily address the nation almost at will
 Negative coverage of administration common
 Covering Congress
 Also disproportionately negative
 C-SPAN
 Covering the Supreme Court
 severely limited coverage
 want to protect perception as nonpolitical and
autonomous

29. Media Influence, Media Bias, and Public
Confidence
 Media Influence
 media effects – the influence of news sources on public opinion
 agenda setting – the constant process of forming the list of issues
to be addressed by government
 framing – the process by which a news organization defines a
political issue and consequently affects opinion about the issue
 Media Bias
 Media is traditionally liberal and identifies with Democratic party
 The Public’s Perception of the Media
 public assessment of media is generally unfavorable
 ideological fragmentation of the media