Presentation from the conference "Quality Education for Better Schools, Results and Future" organized by UNICEF and the Ministry of Education in Podgorica, July 8-10, 2014

1. Improving the Education Systems
What have we learned?
Alberto Rodríguez
Manager, Education Global Practice
Europe and Central Asia
World Bank

2. Why a good education?
To improve labor market outcomes and
promote economic growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Montenegro
Albania
Serbia
BosniaandHerzegovina
Macedonia,FYR
Netherlands
Germany
CzechRepublic
Belgium
Denmark
UnitedKingdom
Slovenia
France
Poland
Italy
Hungary
Bulgaria
Ireland
Croatia
Greece
Spain
Norway
Australia
RussianFederation
Canada
UnitedStates
Turkey
OECD
Europe&CentralAsia
EuropeanUnion
Western Balkans
(excluding EU
members)
European Union Other Countries Aggregates
Total and Youth Unemployment Rate (World Development Indicators, 2012)
Total (15-64)
Youth (15-24)

3. Montenegro 2010
Fuente: Banco Mundial
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Men Women
Primary and
Secondary
Tertiary
Employed
Unemployed
Out of the labor
force

4. Forecast Montenegro 2035
Fuente: Banco Mundial
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Men Women
Primary and
Secondary
Tertiary
Employed
Unemployed
Out of the labor
force

5. Brazil 2005
Fuente: Banco Mundial

6. Forecast Brazil 2035
Fuente: Banco Mundial

7. Why a good education?
Promote the individual and social development
of citizens with the following goals:
1) Train individuals with critical thinking.
2) Promote citizen participation in society.
3) Develop values that strengthen social and
democratic capital in countries.
4) Promote happiness of individuals.

8. Three Lessons Learned
• Part 1: The challenges of secondary education
• Part 2: The importance of socio-emotional
skills.
• Part 3: Tightly coupled systems.

9. Source: Aedo et al., 2013.
PercentagePoints
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
1980 2008
USA
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
1992 2009
Chile
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
2002 2010
Poland
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
2004 2008
Turkey
Non-routine cognitive and analytical
Non-routine interpersonal
Part 1:
What skills does the labor market demand?
Higher demand of non-routine skills…

10. … combined with a stagnant or declining demand of routine skills.
PercentagePoints
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
1980 2008
USA
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
1992 2009
Chile
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
2002 2010
Poland
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
2004 2008
Turkey
Routine cognitive
Routine Manual
Source: Aedo et al., 2013.
What skills does the labor market demand?

11. Profound changes if skills demand.
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
1980 2008
USA
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
1992 2009
Chile
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
2002 2010
Poland
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
2004 2008
Turkey
Non-routine cognitive, analytical
Non-routine interpersonal
Routine cognitive
Routine manual
Source: Aedo et al., 2013.
What skills does the labor market demand?
Percentagepoints

12. Source: McKinsey, 2012.
Jobs in OECD countries are more linked to highly-skilled workers.
37
24
41
44
22
32
1995 2010
Higher Education
Upper Secondary education
Basic and lower secondary
education
Education Attainment of employed workers in OECD
100%=Total employed
What skills does the labor market demand?

13. Source: Skills, Not Just Diplomas (World Bank, 2008)
Why are Skills Important?Education Systems do not meet the labor
market demands
Updating workers’ skills is crucial.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
x<10% 10%<x<20% 20%<x<30% 30%<x<40% 40%<x<50% x>50%
Distribution of firms in Europe and Central Asia that consider that workers’
skills are an important constraint (2008).
HUN
MNE
SVN
GEO
KGZ
ALB
BGR
TUR
AZE
BIH
KOS
MKD
SRB
TJK
UZB
CZE
EST
HRV
LVA
POL
SVK
ARM
UKR
MDA
LTU
ROM
BLR
RUS
KAZ
EU11 and Turkey CIS Middle IncomeCIS Low IncomeWestern Balkans
Average=30.2

14. The labor market challenges
• How do we train today’s youth for the labor
market in 2035?
• What curriculum prepares our youth for this
labor market of the future which is:
– Rapidly changing (technology).
– Global.
– With high labor mobility in competitive sectors.
– With frequent organizational changes that result
in high labor rotation.

15. Vocational Education:
The impact on labor market outcomes
Fuente: Back to Work (World Bank, 2014)
Although transition to the labor market is initially higher, it can
lead to imbalances between workers in the long term.
é

16. Early Vocational Education: a policy
academically unfair and inefficient.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Low
High
Socioeconomic Index
21.7
57.6
0.0
59.4
Age of first tracking:10
Age of First Tracking: 15
Source: Hanushek & Woessmann (2005)
Early vocational education increases inequality without average
improvements at the school…
PISA points (compared to the lowest category)

17. Polish Education Reform in 1999:
A systemic and sustained reform
Primary School
Higher
Education
Upper General
Secondary
Upper Vocational
Secondary
Basic
Vocational
Primary School Gimnazjum
General and
Vocational
Upper Secondary
Basic
Vocational
Higher
Education
Exam Exam Matura
Matura
Entry Exam
Centralized Exams
7 15 1813
Diversified Option
Of
Vocational Training
Before 1999
After 1999
Changes included delaying vocationalization, teacher development, external
assessments, time on task, and curriculum.

18. Results showed a large expansion of general upper secondary education and an
improvement of the quality of the system, in particular for the most disadvantaged.
450
470
490
510
530
550
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
OECD
Poland
Average score in PISA Math
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Level 1 or Below Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 and above
Percentage of Polish Students by level of reading
proficiency in PISA
PISA 2000
PISA 2012
Significant
Improvement
Upper Secondary
Schools
50%
Basic
Vocational
50%
Upper Secondary
Schools
86%
Basic Vocational
14%
Before 1999 In 2012
Polish Education Reform in 1999:
A systemic and sustained reform

19. The Challenges of Secondary Education
• Significant changes in skills demand for the labor market
in a context of globalization and technological change: a
need for more analytical and less routine skills. Flexible,
adaptable skills are a premium!
• Difficulty to update skills during professional career
without a foundation of solid and basic knowledge.

20. Part 2:
The importance of non-cognitive skills.
5
4
7
8
7
12
8
17
17
23
13
9
16
20
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Percentage
Georgia: Percentage of firms which report a skills
mismatch among highly skills workers
Often or Very Often Quite Often
Source: STEP Survey Georgia
Openness
Technical Skills
Problem Solving
Communication
Teamwork
Reading
Math
Non-cognitive skills such as teamwork, communication, or openness to new
ideas are very demanded.

21. Source: Council for Early Childhood Development (2010)
Key Periods and Skill Brain Formation
Formation of cognitive and non-cognitive skills takes place mainly in the
first 4 years.
Non-cognitive skills and is pattern of formation

22. Non-cognitive skills and quality of life
• Higher probability of employment and higher
salary.
• Lower rates of substance abuse and criminal
activities.
• Lower levels of anxiety and depression.
• Higher life expectancy.
• Higher tendency to be cooperative and
extroverted.

23. Non-cognitive skills and Education Systems
• Investing early has a larger impact and can bridge
the education gap more likely.
• Compensatory programs are more expensive and
inefficient.
• It is crucial to have a high-quality teacher workforce
adapted to the early childhood programs.
• Countries that have faced the issue of teacher
quality at the preschool and primary level obtained
the most successful results (Finland).

24. The answer of Education Systems
Pre-Primary Net Enrollment Rate (2012 or latest)
Source: World Bank
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

25. • The challenge for the future is to focus on the
quality of the systems.
• Measuring the quality of early education systems
will be a pillar to reach excellence: the example of
Trinidad and Tobago.
The answer of Education Systems

26. Part 3: The black box of quality of
education…Tightly Coupled Systems
Curriculum
Teacher Policies
Textbooks
and Materials
Assessment
It is fundamental to guarantee the coordination and coupling
in the design and implementation of education policies.

27. Tightly Coupled Systems:
The Polish Example
A systemic reform which placed emphasis in the central
and local coordination:
• Curriculum and instruction.
• Teacher training and development.
• External Assessments.
• Clarity in responsibilities at each government
body.
• Comprehensive model.
• 30 years of convergence on fundamental issues.

28. A systemic reform which place emphasis in :
• Teachers, teachers, teachers.
• Central strong curriculum, with high
autonomy for teachers.
• 50 years of convergence about fundamental
issues.
• Comprehensive model in secondary.
Tightly Coupled Systems:
The Finnish Example

29. • System characterized by a high decentralization and
limited coordination. Teacher training is designed
and financed, for example, at the local level.
• Recent changes in the curriculum towards a national
basic curriculum (“common core”).
• Huge efforts to coordinate and broaden national
assessments...“High stakes assessments”.
• Local financing, except compensatory programs,
which has generated inequity.
Loosely Coupled Systems:
The US Example

30. • A very decentralized system with low
coordination.
• No national curriculum.
• Contents are designed from national texts.
• There are “focus of excelence” but the
average performance is low.
Loosely Coupled Systems:
The Brazil Example

31. Thank You!
Alberto Rodríguez
arodriguez@worldbank.org