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Strengthening governance in the collection and use of information on skills needs

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EduSkills OECD
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PowerPoint by Mr. Stefano Scarpetta, OECD Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs Skills Summit 2018, Porto SESSION 3: IMPLEMENT – Towards better skills policies for tomorrow’s world Objective: Discuss the major challenges in the implementation of education and skills policies raised by the digital transformation, identify contentious issues and how they can be solved, and agree on specific actions

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ANTICIPATING SKILLS FOR THE FUTURE OF WORK Stefano Scarpetta Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affaires OECD Skills Summit Porto, 28-29 June 2018
Skill demands are changing as a result of global trends What jobs will people do? How will they do them? Which skills will be needed? Technology Digitalisation Globalisation Environmental change Ageing Societies 2
The 3 mega-trends Populations are ageing The world has become more integrated Share of business sector jobs sustained by consumers in foreign markets Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(15-64) OECD average The robots are coming Estimated worldwide annual supply of industrial robots 2015 2050 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 '000ofunits 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Germany Portugal Italy United Kingdom France Canada Japan United States
Labour markets are changing The disappearing middle: jobs by skill level (% change in employment shares 1995-2015) 4 New vacancies for gig workers (May 2016=100) 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Source: Oxford Internet Institute, Online Labor Index A number of jobs at risk of automation (as a % of all jobs) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Risk of significant change (50-70%) -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 France Portugal UnitedKingdom Italy Germany OECDAverage UnitedStates Canada Japan Low skill Middle skill High skill
We need to change the way we think about skills New skill sets for new occupations and tasks ICT skills, problem- solving skills, socio- emotional skills New forms of employment Decision-making skills Training policies for multiple careers Lifelong learning, skills recognition
Inaction can lead to costly skills imbalances 6 Qualification and field-of-study mismatch Source: OECD Skills for Jobs Database 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% CzechRepublic SlovakRepublic Poland Slovenia Finland Hungary EUaverage UnitedStates Denmark Belgium France Lithuania Norway Austria Switzerland Sweden Germany Netherlands Italy NewZealand UnitedKingdom Spain Portugal Turkey Greece Ireland Underqualification Overqualification Field-of-study mismatch
Inaction can lead to costly skills imbalances Source: Skills Outlook (2013): Survey of Adults Skills, PIAAC (2012) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Austria Spain Czech Republic Ireland Germany Slovak Republic Italy Korea Japan Australia UnitedStates Norway Denmark Poland Estonia Netherlands Canada Finland Sweden Percentageofoverandunder-skilled(Literacy),PIAAC Over-skilled Under-skilled
Labour market demand is concentrating in high-cognitive and soft skills 8 -0.015 -0.01 -0.005 0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 JudgmentandDecisionMaking SocialPerceptiveness Troubleshooting EquipmentSelection VerbalAbilities ReasoningAbilities PhysicalStrength Endurance HealthServices EducationandTraining ArtsandHumanities ManufacturingandProduction Skills Abilities Knowledge United States EU unweighted average <-surplusshortage-> Source: OECD Skills for Jobs Database High-Cognitive Skills: Verbal and Reasoning abilities, Judgment & Decision Making, Social Perceptiveness Knowledge areas: Health Services, Education and Training, Mathematics and ICT
Source: OECD Skills for Jobs Database- Unweighted average for European Countries …while imbalances have grown over time -0.020 -0.015 -0.010 -0.005 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 WrittenExpression DeductiveReasoning InductiveReasoning FluencyofIdeas ProblemSensitivity Originality MathematicalReasoning Arm-HandSteadiness GrossBodyCoordination Stamina ManualDexterity MultilimbCoordination StaticStrength Final year Initial year Surpluses in routine and physical abilities have become more evident Shortages in cognitive skills have become more pervasive
Skills imbalances have negative effects for all Vacancies remain unfilled for too long Delays in production Slow adoption of technologies Higher turnover and re- training costs 10 Substantial wage penalty Reduced Job satisfaction For individuals For employers
Key policy principles for effective SAA Systems Identify clear objectives Set up information systems Involve relevant stakeholders Use the results for policy making
Identify clear objectives and tools to reach them Assessment of current needs (Surveys, Administrative data) + Forecast of demand and supply Policy formulation Tailored Sectoral exercises + Regional and local disaggregation Strategic Planning Links with schools, universities + Web-platforms, mobile applications Career guidance
Set up information systems 1. Develop exercises that make the most of qualitative and quantitative information on skill needs – Canada: ‘FutureSkillsLab’ uses big-data to track emerging trends and feed into policy intervention – UK: Migration Advisory Committee analyses online vacancy data to identify skill shortages and inform migration policy 2. Include sectoral and sub-national analysis – Portugal: “Sistema de Antecipação de Necessidades de Qualificações” (National Qualification Needs Anticipation System, SANQ). SANQ identified short and medium term skill needs at the regional level – Norway: study to forecast future supply and demand for advanced ICT competences up to 2030 and recently established an ad-hoc ‘Commission on Future Skill Needs’
But some barriers to SAA exercises exist… Source: Getting Skills Right: Assessing and Anticipating Changing Skill Needs (2016) Note: Values based on responses from 29 countries reporting at least one involved actor 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Lack of human resources with relevant knowledge and expertise Poor statistical infrastructure Lack of funds Low reliability and accuracy of past exercises Other Percentageofcountriesreportingbarrier  Need to boost human resources and capability  Strengthen statistical infrastructures  More funds
Involve relevant stakeholders • Cross-ministerial collaboration – Japan: Central Training Council articulates discussions about skills anticipation in the context of the training system across ministries, regional/sub-regional administrative levels and stakeholders. • Social partners – Australia: social partners lead skills anticipation exercises (Industry Skills Forecasts) and provide direct input for policy action. • Sub-national and sectoral entities – France: Réseau Emploi Compétences (REC) brings together different providers of skills needs exercises and decision makers from related fields at various administrative levels (national, sectoral, regional )
Contact: Stefano.Scarpetta@OECD.org Twitter: @stescarpetta Blog: Websites: http://www.oecd.org/employment/skills-and-work.htm Thank you

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Strengthening governance in the collection and use of information on skills needs

  • 1. ANTICIPATING SKILLS FOR THE FUTURE OF WORK Stefano Scarpetta Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affaires OECD Skills Summit Porto, 28-29 June 2018
  • 2. Skill demands are changing as a result of global trends What jobs will people do? How will they do them? Which skills will be needed? Technology Digitalisation Globalisation Environmental change Ageing Societies 2
  • 3. The 3 mega-trends Populations are ageing The world has become more integrated Share of business sector jobs sustained by consumers in foreign markets Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(15-64) OECD average The robots are coming Estimated worldwide annual supply of industrial robots 2015 2050 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 '000ofunits 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Germany Portugal Italy United Kingdom France Canada Japan United States
  • 4. Labour markets are changing The disappearing middle: jobs by skill level (% change in employment shares 1995-2015) 4 New vacancies for gig workers (May 2016=100) 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Source: Oxford Internet Institute, Online Labor Index A number of jobs at risk of automation (as a % of all jobs) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Risk of significant change (50-70%) -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 France Portugal UnitedKingdom Italy Germany OECDAverage UnitedStates Canada Japan Low skill Middle skill High skill
  • 5. We need to change the way we think about skills New skill sets for new occupations and tasks ICT skills, problem- solving skills, socio- emotional skills New forms of employment Decision-making skills Training policies for multiple careers Lifelong learning, skills recognition
  • 6. Inaction can lead to costly skills imbalances 6 Qualification and field-of-study mismatch Source: OECD Skills for Jobs Database 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% CzechRepublic SlovakRepublic Poland Slovenia Finland Hungary EUaverage UnitedStates Denmark Belgium France Lithuania Norway Austria Switzerland Sweden Germany Netherlands Italy NewZealand UnitedKingdom Spain Portugal Turkey Greece Ireland Underqualification Overqualification Field-of-study mismatch
  • 7. Inaction can lead to costly skills imbalances Source: Skills Outlook (2013): Survey of Adults Skills, PIAAC (2012) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Austria Spain Czech Republic Ireland Germany Slovak Republic Italy Korea Japan Australia UnitedStates Norway Denmark Poland Estonia Netherlands Canada Finland Sweden Percentageofoverandunder-skilled(Literacy),PIAAC Over-skilled Under-skilled
  • 8. Labour market demand is concentrating in high-cognitive and soft skills 8 -0.015 -0.01 -0.005 0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 JudgmentandDecisionMaking SocialPerceptiveness Troubleshooting EquipmentSelection VerbalAbilities ReasoningAbilities PhysicalStrength Endurance HealthServices EducationandTraining ArtsandHumanities ManufacturingandProduction Skills Abilities Knowledge United States EU unweighted average <-surplusshortage-> Source: OECD Skills for Jobs Database High-Cognitive Skills: Verbal and Reasoning abilities, Judgment & Decision Making, Social Perceptiveness Knowledge areas: Health Services, Education and Training, Mathematics and ICT
  • 9. Source: OECD Skills for Jobs Database- Unweighted average for European Countries …while imbalances have grown over time -0.020 -0.015 -0.010 -0.005 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 WrittenExpression DeductiveReasoning InductiveReasoning FluencyofIdeas ProblemSensitivity Originality MathematicalReasoning Arm-HandSteadiness GrossBodyCoordination Stamina ManualDexterity MultilimbCoordination StaticStrength Final year Initial year Surpluses in routine and physical abilities have become more evident Shortages in cognitive skills have become more pervasive
  • 10. Skills imbalances have negative effects for all Vacancies remain unfilled for too long Delays in production Slow adoption of technologies Higher turnover and re- training costs 10 Substantial wage penalty Reduced Job satisfaction For individuals For employers
  • 11. Key policy principles for effective SAA Systems Identify clear objectives Set up information systems Involve relevant stakeholders Use the results for policy making
  • 12. Identify clear objectives and tools to reach them Assessment of current needs (Surveys, Administrative data) + Forecast of demand and supply Policy formulation Tailored Sectoral exercises + Regional and local disaggregation Strategic Planning Links with schools, universities + Web-platforms, mobile applications Career guidance
  • 13. Set up information systems 1. Develop exercises that make the most of qualitative and quantitative information on skill needs – Canada: ‘FutureSkillsLab’ uses big-data to track emerging trends and feed into policy intervention – UK: Migration Advisory Committee analyses online vacancy data to identify skill shortages and inform migration policy 2. Include sectoral and sub-national analysis – Portugal: “Sistema de Antecipação de Necessidades de Qualificações” (National Qualification Needs Anticipation System, SANQ). SANQ identified short and medium term skill needs at the regional level – Norway: study to forecast future supply and demand for advanced ICT competences up to 2030 and recently established an ad-hoc ‘Commission on Future Skill Needs’
  • 14. But some barriers to SAA exercises exist… Source: Getting Skills Right: Assessing and Anticipating Changing Skill Needs (2016) Note: Values based on responses from 29 countries reporting at least one involved actor 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Lack of human resources with relevant knowledge and expertise Poor statistical infrastructure Lack of funds Low reliability and accuracy of past exercises Other Percentageofcountriesreportingbarrier  Need to boost human resources and capability  Strengthen statistical infrastructures  More funds
  • 15. Involve relevant stakeholders • Cross-ministerial collaboration – Japan: Central Training Council articulates discussions about skills anticipation in the context of the training system across ministries, regional/sub-regional administrative levels and stakeholders. • Social partners – Australia: social partners lead skills anticipation exercises (Industry Skills Forecasts) and provide direct input for policy action. • Sub-national and sectoral entities – France: Réseau Emploi Compétences (REC) brings together different providers of skills needs exercises and decision makers from related fields at various administrative levels (national, sectoral, regional )
  • 16. Contact: Stefano.Scarpetta@OECD.org Twitter: @stescarpetta Blog: Websites: http://www.oecd.org/employment/skills-and-work.htm Thank you