This document contains predictions for the mobile application landscape in 2014 from a 2011 perspective. It predicts that: 1) One third of mobile apps will be written using cross-platform tools like PhoneGap due to desires to target multiple platforms without separate ports. 2) Tablets will make netbooks irrelevant and e-readers will follow by 2014 with more powerful e-ink displays replacing dedicated readers. 3) Amazon will become the #2 largest tablet manufacturer by leveraging their existing Kindle brand and story. 4) The Android Market and device-specific stores like the Amazon Appstore will be the primary app distribution channels, while carrier stores fade in importance. 5) Modified ROMs will become more popular both for

1. ght-H earted
Mo stly Li
Predictions Sure
to Go Wrong (fall 2011 edition)
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2. Prediction #1: In three years'
time, 1 out of every 3 mobile
applications will be written
using cross-platform tools
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3. 2014: Cross-Platform Tools
● What?
– Web-Centric
● Pure HTML5 Web apps
● PhoneGap (Adobe!), Rhodes, etc.
– App Generators
– Others
● Flash, Mono, Unity 3D, Titanium Mobile, etc.
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4. 2014: Cross-Platform Tools
● Why?
– Want to hit closer to 100% of devices without
maintaining individual ports
– Aiming to avoid market-related headaches
● E.g., iOS content subscription sales
● HTML5 Web app plus (perhaps) PhoneGap-wrapped
version in markets
– They chose the tool for the tool's sake, got
cross-platform as a side benefit
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5. Prediction #2: By the end of
this presentation, tablets will
make netbooks irrelevant...
with e-readers to follow by
2014
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6. 2014: Tablets
● Netbooks
– Never that popular
– Bluetooth keyboards, keyboard docs
● E-Readers
– Immediately slides to “e-ink display devices”
– More powerful e-ink → no more dedicated e-
readers
● E.g., Pixel Qi
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7. Prediction #3: In three years'
time, Amazon will be the #2
consumer tablet manufacturer
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8. 2014: Amazon
● Mass Market Adoption Requires a Story
– Existing technology: the market already knows
the story
● E.g., mobile phones
– New technology: manufacturers need to define
the story
● Unique credible stories → reasons to buy
● Easiest story = brand extension from related
technology
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9. 2014: Amazon
● Tablet Stories
– iPad: It's mobile. We're Apple. (duh)
– Kindle Fire: It's a Kindle, with movies and songs
and pissed-off birds and such
● Amazon already established the Kindle story and
effectively created the e-reader segment
● Key question: will it be Android?
– Others: (crickets chirping)
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10. Prediction #4: In three years'
time, there will be a well-
established pecking order for
app distribution
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11. 2014: Market Makers
● Primary Markets
– Android Market
– Device Markets
● Amazon Appstore
● Nook
● Blackberry
● Etc.
– Enterprise “Markets”
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12. 2014: Market Makers
● What Will Fade
– Carrier Markets
● Mostly just a promotional channel
– Handset Manufacturer Markets
● Mostly just end-around past Android Market
geographic limitations
– Miscellaneous Markets
● Niche audiences only
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13. Prediction #5: In three years'
time, modded ROMs will be
significantly more popular...
though not necessarily for
positive reasons
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14. 2014: Modded ROMs
● Positive Reasons for Rise
– More device manufacturer support
– Somebody goes after the enterprise / purpose-
driven device segment
– Specialized vetted ROMs for freedom
● Anti-surveillance
● Pro-sousveillance
● Whole device encryption, etc.
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15. 2014: Modded ROMs
● Negative Reasons for Rise
– Increased third-party malware, necessitating
ROM-based defenses
● Permission creep
● Tapjacking
– Increased on-device spyware
● Blackberry keylogger in UAE (2009)
● Carrier IQ
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16. 2014: Miscellaneous Predictions
500,000 apps in Android Market NFC doesn't catch on as hoped
1,000 Android device models
Rovio sued by pigs for discrimination
study proves writing books causes hair loss
Oracle v. Google still not resolved
bugdroid sex tape released
better support for apps for small business
jelly bean, key lime pie, layer cake
Apple sues UK, claims Big Ben is rectangle
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