Foreshore Event

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A reduce size version (fewer slides) of the ForeShore presentation in Jersey.

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Foreshore Event

  1. 1. Situation Normal, Everything Must Change Simon Wardley, Researcher Leading Edge Forum 07/08/10 01:32 PM
  2. 2. “The challenge of the computer utility” Douglas Parkhill 1966
  3. 3. Ubiquity Utility Services Commodity Product Custom built Innovation Certainty
  4. 4. Ubiquity io n at it is o d m m Co Certainty
  5. 5. Ubiquity Demand (user competition) io n at it is o d m m Co Improvement (supply competition) Certainty
  6. 6. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  7. 7. Attitude Concept Technology Suitability
  8. 8. Ubiquity Standardised Service! Marketplace Certainty
  9. 9. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Agility Focus on core (Self Service) (outsource) Innovation Pay per use (creative destruction, (utility) componentisation) Certainty
  10. 10. Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
  11. 11. Theory of Hierarchy Componentisation Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  12. 12. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Accelerated Innovation Certainty
  13. 13. Standards Matter Henry Maudslay (1771 - 1831)
  14. 14. Ubiquity Disruptive Certainty
  15. 15. Transition Outsourcing Ubiquity Confusion Suitability Governance Competition Trust Lock-in Security Second Source Transparency Control Certainty
  16. 16. Ubiquity Market Competitive Gap You Certainty
  17. 17. Ubiquity Market ure ss Pre You Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis” Certainty
  18. 18. Ubiquity Transitional Risks Security of supply, governance, trust ... Hybrid Certainty
  19. 19. consumption efficiency
  20. 20. “Jevons Paradox” Technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to increase the rate of consumption of that resource. William Stanley Jevons, 1865
  21. 21. # Lifecycle
  22. 22. # Commoditisation Demand vs Supply Competition Innovation Creative Destruction Componentisation Lifecycle
  23. 23. H. Pixii, 1832 National Grid, ‘30s Turing ‘36 PowerEdge, ‘02 Z3 ‘41 IBM 650, ‘54 Amazon EC2 ‘06 Siebel SIS ’94 Customer DBM ’80s Centric ‘70s VRM ‘06 MyDex ‘08 Lifecycle
  24. 24. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Predictable Serendipty Procedural Competitive Adv. CODB Lifecycle
  25. 25. # Joseph A. Schumpeter Prof. Van Valen (1883 - 1950) Lifecycle
  26. 26. Innovation Paradox Survival today requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’. Survival tomorrow requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues. Salaman & Storey
  27. 27. # Commoditisation Network Effects, Open Source, Participation Innovation Lifecycle
  28. 28. # Commoditisation Pricing, Confusion, Branding Innovation Lifecycle
  29. 29. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
  30. 30. http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
  31. 31. # Six Sigma Lifecycle
  32. 32. Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising stuff has no strategic value?
  33. 33. One size fits all http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  34. 34. IT # Admin Business Lifecycle
  35. 35. VS
  36. 36. # Pioneers Colonisers Town Planner Innovate Leverage Commoditise Lists Siebel SIS ’94 Customer DBM ’80s Salesforce ’02 (10.6%) Centric ‘70s Lifecycle
  37. 37. # Innovate Leverage Commoditise Days / Weeks Months / Years Years Agile Agile TOGAF Re-use Decide Common Service Experiment Evaluate Standardise Collaborate Monitor / Acquire Supply Chain High Risk ROI Price vs QoS Fail Quick Tactic Low Risk Min. Inv. Mod. Inv. High. Inv. In-house Ecosystem Outsource Lifecycle
  38. 38. # Innovate Leverage Commoditse 20% Work Google Labs Core Services Summer of Marketplace Defined Build Code Procedures Open Source Investment Acquisition Google Lifecycle
  39. 39. Innovate Leverage Commoditse Where2 GIS ‘62 Oct’04 Map API ’05 Panoramio ‘07 ‘08 Lifecycle
  40. 40. # Innovate Leverage Commoditse CRM Ideas Acquisition Core Services AppExchange Platform (monitor) Defined Build Procedures SalesForce Lifecycle
  41. 41. Global Research & Advisory Organization Membership of a community of true peers, business and technology experts and advisers Leading Edge Forum
  42. 42. Leading Edge Forum
  43. 43. # Lifecycle Leading Edge Forum
  44. 44. http://lef.csc.com Leading Edge Forum

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